[ThePatriots1988]

Hey guys,

I'm new to this forum and about to start my own thread, to post some of my picks. I guess it would be good to introduce myself and give you some background information about the way I bet:
To be a successfull better you have to be either luckier or smarter then the bookmaker. Well, to rely solely on luck seems to be rather stupid so I've looked for ways to be smarter then the average bookmaker (which is pretty tough by the way ). In this process I've developed some sort of formula based on statistics to evaluate each game. I started by gathering data in the German Bundesliga and invented a system which weights different variables such as team value, home/away performance, injuries, recent performances, etc and in some cases even the weather or the double burden through international/Cup games during the week.

I noticed that it's way easier to bet on the over/under 2.5 goals, so I evaluated and ranked the 36 defenses and offenses of the 1st and 2nd German Bundesliga. I then assigned different multipliers according to their rank to value the goals they scored and received this season to calculate a more "realistic number". I then use the more accurate statistic to predict the number of goals in each match. After that I compare the given odds with my number of goals predicted to calculate the expected value. As long it's fairly positive I'll pick the result!

Well, this was pretty theoretical, I'll give you a short example (real data):
5th matchday: Bayern vs Freiburg 7:0
7th matchday: Bayern vs Leverkusen 3:0
10th matchday: Hannover vs Bayern 2:1
12th matchday: Augsburg vs Bayern 1:2
14th matchday: Mainz vs Bayern 3:2

Ok, now let's take a look at the statistics. The game vs. Freiburg looks impressive - 7 goals scored by the Bayern attack! But let's face it: One of the goals was a penalty kick and Freiburg has one of the worst defenses in the German Bundesliga (note: By the way: Allthough Freiburg received the most goals it's not the worst defense in the leage - at least according to my data). In fact, after taking a closer look I decided to cut the numer of goals scored by Bayern by 20% which makes 5,4 goals.
On the other hand a 3:0 victory over Leverkusen is really impressive - at that time Leverkusen received only 1 goal per game, so I multiply the number of goals by 1,05
I don't want to bore you with endless explanations but let's just look at the last game against Mainz. Currently Bayern has still one of the best defenses in the Bundesliga (8 goals in 14 games - 0,57 per game). But if you take a closer look you may notice, that they received 7 of these 8 goals in the last five games (1,4 per game). I strongly believe in streaks, etc. That's because I value the recent performances more then results of the beginning of the season. That's why I multiply the 3 goals scored by Mainz with 1,1 (because Mainz offense is far from being impressive) and then with 1,2 because it's a recent game, resulting in a "more realistic numer" of 3,96 goals....

I do use a lot of different stuff, but I don't want to explain everything in detail (I'm getting tired of writing ). Just note, that my system is far from perfect. There a still tons of unpredictabilities. It's only one part of my evaluation. But it works fine for me....



OK, here are my two picks for today:

1) 2nd German Bundesliag: Paderborn : St. Pauli over 2.5 goals - my data predicts 3,615 goals

2)2nd German Bundesliag: Union : Cottbus under 2.5 goals - in fact, this is a borderline pick. My data predicts 2,213, which would normally be not low enough for me to pick it. But if you take into account that 6 of the combined last 8 games of Union an Cottbus ended with less then 3 goals and that Unions last game (8 goals - 5:3 against Rostock) has been heavily weighted in my formular, I tend to take the under anyway.

Ok, that's it for today (unless I see some value in the Leverkusen: Hoffenheim game)
Thanks for reading and sorry for my bad English (I'm German)
ThePatriots1988

[southpaw74]

Thanks for sharing patriot. Good luck in the forum and on the matches.

[milkncereal]

12/2/11 12:00pm Germany Soccer 301 St. Pauli (GER-2)/Paderborn (GER-2) Over 2½ -109*

i need some action in the early morning...half a unit on me rooting for some goals.

[tukkk]

interesting, my model shows 2.39 goals for paderborn game and now that line has moved towards a better price, its definetly under for me

[southpaw74]

interesting, my model shows 2.39 goals for paderborn game and now that line has moved towards a better price, its definetly under for me

Since the over is now getting juiced that mean that it's the play more than the under?

[tukkk]

its pretty retarded to bet the over atm

[southpaw74]

its pretty retarded to bet the over atm

So you are taking the under because it has less juice

[milkncereal]

or b/c his fancy smancy model has under by .1

[tukkk]

the game was on my waiting list nad the price moved to make it good enough
and milkncereal, .1 is a good enough gap for me

[southpaw74]

Ok. Good luck fellas

[EasyPicks]

I see you have read my PM

PATRIOT, one question:

aren't many of the factors that u include in ur calculations very subjective? "I decided to cut the numer of goals scored by Bayern by 20% which makes 5,4 goals.
On the other hand a 3:0 victory over Leverkusen is really impressive - at that time Leverkusen received only 1 goal per game, so I multiply the number of goals by 1,05"

why 20%....or why *1,05.....??? YOU DON'T HAVE TO EXPLAIN IN A DETAILED WAY, BUT JUST WANTED TO KNOW IF THOSE NUMBERS WERE GENERATED FROM SOMETHING OR IF ARE SUBJECTIVE VALUES THAT U USE FOR CALCULATIONS....

THANK YOU