Originally Posted by
Wilforth
If stats worked all the time, then we can all get to 95-100% with our picks! Knowing when to ignore stats is a great handicapping tool. Villareal have conceded 10 in their L5 while Mallorca have conceded 13 during the same interval. That may not ring a bell but the fact is that Villareal have conceded 8 in their L3 home games while Mallorca have conceded 10 in their L3 road games. IMHO, Over 2.5 (-153) has more value than Villareal.
I'm not dissuading you from your Villareal play but I fear that such "textbook" picks have a way of backfiring.