first experiment ended decently enough, enough to make back my initial investment (600) plus a grand after that, which I ended up losing due to 1. my stupidity 2. pushing too hard 3. the sounders laying an egg against a horrific opponent (thank you herediano) http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/soccer-han...9-17-18-a.html
so i got my money back and had money in the account but lost it so guess what, deposit time again. but a slight name error in "person2person" has me waiting until tomorrow morning to rush to the store and fix that, then make plays. hopefully the lines wont move too much during the night. now i have to see if the store opens at 9, hopefully they will so i can get the germany/england plays in, or at least my england play.
Originally I had Ingolstadt pk on my sights, but with the deposit snafu (the game is at 7am) that's not possible anymore. Ingolstadt 2-2-0 at home against a Bochum team that has a reputation but isn't playing like that this season. That would have been my first play. But oh well.
-Leverkusen/Wolfsburg Over 3
-Manchester City Win
those are the only two plays I have for the 9/10am hour, with Wigan +1 as the third play in case I can't get the Leverkusen/Wolfsburg one in at 930.
Maybe it's good I can't bet it right now, as it's important to see who City play first. Probably full squad due to internationals next week. If so, even if the price rises and I have to eat 20-30 cents, I'll still take it, only maybe -1.
Leverkusen is so solid at home but Wolfsburg brings the reckless out in everyone. Either Wolfsburg shocks with a few away goals, or gets destroyed while giving up 3-4 goals. Both teams played Europa League, so sharpness won't be so perfect. Goals galore, hopefully.
Villa are just Villa, Wigan are just Wigan. Looks like a draw or at worst Villa one-goal win. Home team hasn't won this fixture in something like 6-7 years, which is crazy.
So after those two plays I have the Hertha/Koln over. Koln!! Over masters, crazy scores. Self explanatory. And Utrecht/RKC over as well. RKC has shutout two opponents away from home, but Utrecht ALWAYS score at home. So that won't be an obstacle, hopefully.
Then if I survive those two I have Valencia, Malaga which look like two routine home wins against hopeless opponents (hopefully) - then the Houston Dynamo who are dynamos at home, and the Fire has been on fire but only against weak teams at home, and away to a 10 man Salt Lake. Then I have the Fluminense/Santos over picks, and Sporting Kansas City away to San Jose (still on the fence about this one).
So that's the whole plan, I'll be starting with 600 dollars again. I'll make sure to 100% update every play this game. Good luck to me.
Since I've ranted about this betting thing, let me just note I'm a lifetime loser, easily. And it is always money management with bad losing streaks that end up with me busting. I'm not a big player at all, in fact the 600 is the biggest deposit I've ever made. I think that doesn't help with success, even betting flat units I still get a little losing streak going and I lose it all. My biggest successes were turning 100 to 1000 and 600 to around 1500 (two weeks ago). The rest were just forgetful, many plays for little profit until a small losing streak did me in.
The worst loss I ever had was the Sounders two weeks ago playing against lowly Herediano, and I thought they could do it even with the B team. But they couldn't. So that was my mistake. Second biggest loss was Arsenal at home to Liverpool, I still maintain that was the right decision though. The red card by Frimpong messed it all up. Yes I was numb but I understood it's just bad luck. I'm down around 6000ish lifetime (not going to lie) but two weeks ago success had me at 1500, which was something like 25% total of my losses. So I believe with a big enough bankroll, I can succeed, providing I control myself. I already put in the most money and made the most I ever had with that, so my plays aren't horrible, but my thinking and money management is.
For example with the Sounders, once I saw they had their B team out I should've bought the bet back with Herediano win/draw bets. The win would've had me in the black by a lot (Herediano won 1-0(, and a draw have me at 0. But no, I was so optimistic (suicidal, sometimes) that I let it ride and lost in the process. It's just the little things that I'm lacking, thinking things through and all that. So hopefully tomorrow I can start being serious about it all, but no I'm not delusional. If I lose this it's likely I'm through for a long time, I'm not an idiot obviously, won't keep chasing when it's too late to do anything about it.
This thread should be named confessions of a noob bettor.
I guess I can turn this into my thoughts thread, with some bets sometimes. I really enjoy betting, it's a great past time as I'm already very passionate about the game, and would be in front of the TV all day anyway. So why not start wagering on some games? So many choices to make, I think action is my problem. But Saturdays and Sundays there are invariably many good games to choose from around the world. So obviously most people will be betting most those two days. It's when you have a lot on French Ligue 2 and Swedish Allsvenskan that you will end up losing everything. Small bets for action, medium/large ones for the good opportunities. And I believe Blackburn/City is a good opportunity. Blackburn is tough at home, sometimes. City score first, it's probably over. But Blackburn can be tough sometimes, so I'm definitely not picking this one as my "all-in" game, in fact I hope to stay away from all-ins. Betting 33% or 50% bankroll of my first bets at the start, then kind of level it off as the games I really really like start to decline from there. Just want a fast start, and I think I can handle it from there.
WOW Ingolstadt!! I've been following them for about a year now due to Edson Buddle, and they didn't prove me wrong (2 goals + assist by Buddle in 1st half) but that second half collapse was something else. Winning 3-1 to lose 5-3. Also would have played the Jaguares/Atlas over yesterday if I had gotten back home before the game (and missed my other play, Belgrano/Argentinos over) and I would've been effectively screwed by now. So I'm just about heading out to fix that deposit thing.
I've added two possible plays, Leeds/Portsmouth and Southampton/Watford overs, they look incredibly good. City's price moved like hell, so I'm going to have to parlay the Manchester teams to save some juice. United 15-1-0 at home last season, so hopefully this is a good move.
I'm thinking about something like
33% BR - City/United parlay
33% BR - Leeds/Southampton over parlay
33% BR - Leverkusen/Wolfsburg over
Might change my mind but that's the way things stand at this moment.
didn't go through until after all the games started
so I've been keeping an eye on United/Norwich and my first bet is
50% BR on United/Norwich Over 1.5 - Man Utd one of those teams that can breakthrough and score another one minute later. And if Norwich score, United will just go all out attack and likely equalize soon after. So hopefully United make a breakthrough early, something like 50/55th minute then put it away.
Berlin/Koln ended on three, won half stakes. Late-ish Utrecht goal gets a 3-0 win.
Next play is 26% BR on Roda/NAC Over 2.5, 3 - missed the Valencia match. Funds haven't cleared from the other two wins, so I'm putting some on 2.5, 3 and the rest on Over 3.
forgot to add 22% BR on Houston/Chicago over, I saw Houston usually won home games 2-1/3-1, always win and over. Chicago in the playoff race and running out of time, they have to go for it and not settle for a draw. And Houston doesn't keep clean sheets at home, because they dont have to, score 2-3 goals themselves regularly. Also 22% BR on Malaga win, Getafe are tough and defensive but Malaga should have enough quality.
Same 22% BR on Fluminense/Santos over 2.5, both teams winning and by high scores, hopefully this entertaining and hectic football can continue.
Two goals before first half in Houston/Chicago, and plenty of good opportunities, but it ended 101. Malaga with a miracle 90th minute bicycle kick win, and Fluminense drawing Santos 2-w.
6-1 +911
Pushing further here, with American and Mexican plays.
20% BR on New York Red Bulls pk, -.5. Toronto are finally officially eliminated and New York have all to play for. Only two away wins all season but they have superior motivation and are finally finding their way with two wins in three. 20% BR on Colorado/Dallas Over 2.5. Dallas are drained from their midweek slugfest with Tauro, and even with a full team have been allowing goals on the road. Colorado very solid at home and usually find the back of the net. Hopefully trends continue here.
20% BR on Chivas Guadalajara win. Chivas great at home, Queretaro just an average team. Chivas in 2011 at home have only dropped points to the top performers at home. 20% BR on Puebla +.5 at San Luis. San Luis have not won in 5 games, and Puebla are vastly improved to last season.
So 80% BR on the line in the evening, this either ruins me, or does nothing, or establishes my bankroll for the future, and I'll start taking it easy.
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Suicide Betting Part II 10/1-10/2
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