1. #1
    ZXCVBNM
    Crew/Fire over 2.5
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    Saturday Picks (England)

    These all come off at 10am EST on Saturday, and I really hate playing so many games at the same time in case things go wrong. Then I'm screwed. But that's the way things are, so here are my plays.

    I won't lie, I feel I put too much at stake picking both Fulham AND Hull, who are in eerily similar situations. Risky plays but if they both come off then that will be brilliant and the risk will have been worth it.

    EPL
    Stoke to draw/win against Blackburn
    Blackburn have not won in their past 11 EPL games. They aren't gonna win here either, in my opinion. Stoke are a scrappy away team and can hold their own against the lower clubs. Sunderland vs West Brom this isn't (as in Sunderland switched coaches and first game out beat lowly Albion 4-0).

    Fulham over Boro
    Fulham can get the win, but it's gonna be tough. For comparisons sake - Hull beat Boro two weeks ago, and Fulham should do the same. Fulham are on a run of four straight draws but it's a brilliant result considering who they've played - Liverpool, Villa, and Stoke away, City at home. They should be able to beat Boro here. [Of all the picks I'm least confident about this one mostly because of Boro. They are capable of being world-beaters one game then horrible the next. Hopefully everything goes according to plan.]

    Hull over Sunderland
    Hull are also on a Fulham-like run, 4 draws in their last 5 (other game was a win) - Hull haven't played very well lately at home but this streak should end. They lost to Chelsea and Bolton then drew with City and beat Boro (all at home). Sunderland play very negative football away but it's good that they beat West Brom at home last week cause they think they'll have a shot to play on even terms with Hull, and hopefully Hull will take advantage of any opportunities.

    Championship

    Queens Park Rangers over Preston North End
    QPR are an amazing 8-1-2 at home. In their last five they've beaten Birmingham, Cardiff, and Wolves (all top 5) while losing to Burnley. All very top teams and they were still able to win. Along comes Preston, who have a similar home record (9-3) and a decent away record. With further inspection you can see they've struggled against all opposition away, going 2-4-5 against mostly mid-lower table clubs (17-24) and losses to proper mid-table clubs. QPR have shown they can beat the top clubs at home, and this should be no different.

    It may seem as if I'm just pulling stats and numbers, that's not the case really. (except the QPR game, I don't really watch Champ/One/Two)

    Great Parlay opportunities:
    Not great odds but almost-certainties.

    Millwall, Rangers, Aldershot, Wolves.

    -Millwall, Rangers, Aldershot play bottom clubs at home.
    -Wolves play bottom Doncaster away but have a great away record. Doncaster are horrific at home, the results are strewn with zeroes. Luckily they've lost to any top clubs that play them at home and Wolves have beaten many top teams away.

    I played a four-teamer with these teams and it pays out about +500. I'm actually pretty confident about it.
    Last edited by ZXCVBNM; 12-19-08 at 10:07 PM.

  2. #2
    ZXCVBNM
    Crew/Fire over 2.5
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    Join Date: 09-17-08
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    Well tthat was slightly disasterous.. 2-2 and the parlay was messed too.

    Adding Villa pk, -.5 - I don't see any way Villa lose this. Their away form is better than their home form, and West Ham are a decent home team but not when they faced the quality teams.

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