1. #36
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by swordsandtequila View Post
    BTTS a good bet once it goes live. -165 now, will jump once price gets better (barring an early goal).
    yeah, West Brom's defence is also very average..Olsson and Tamas are old-school defenders who lack pace and just good in the air. Ridgewell and Jones are just basic nothing special players as well.

  2. #37
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    Besiktas can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives...3-1, wouldnt be surprised if they blow this now. Manuel Fernandes has gone off so may fall apart completely without him!

  3. #38
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    Besiktas doing their best to blow this...Hugo Almeida sent-off, and shot just cleared off the line...10 mins to hold on

  4. #39
    andy888888
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    yeah, West Brom's defence is also very average..Olsson and Tamas are old-school defenders who lack pace and just good in the air. Ridgewell and Jones are just basic nothing special players as well.
    and foster is still out injured isnt he?

  5. #40
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post

    2 units on Besiktas -1 A.H. @ -166 at home to Akhisar Belediyespor (Turkish Super Lig):

    Always risky betting on erratic Turkish league but can't resist a play on Besiktas tonight. They have finally found some consistency and form winning 4 and drawing 1 out of last 5, and scoring 3 goals in each of their last 4 league games. Besiktas also beat the in-form Antalyaspor (joint top of league) 5-3 away from home last wknd, Antalyaspor were on a 9 match unbeaten run and second in the league so it was an impressive win and will give them a lot of confidence going in to this home game. Akhisar meanwhile are the opposite, losing 4 in a row including a loss in the Cup to Tokatspor who are mid-table 2 divisions below the Super Lig. I think Besiktas should win this by a couple as long as they don't get complacent thinking it will be a walk-over. Akhisar have been better away from home with 2 wins and 2 draws which is slightly concerning, however, Besiktas should be too strong and I expect a similar result to the 3-0 home win Besiktas had against second from bottom Mersin a couple wknds ago, and a win today would take them joint top of the league.
    Besiktas with a shitty 2nd half performance but manage to hold on to 3-1 so first play is a winner... +1.2048 units profit



  6. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by andy888888 View Post
    and foster is still out injured isnt he?
    yeah Myhill still in goal, and Mulumbu (defensive mid) is injured so I guess Reid will replace him.

  7. #42
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    Damn, was gonna play Mersin PK at home to Karabukspor but bottled it. Looks like they won 2-1....Karabukspor were being over-valued after their recent good patch and win against Gala last wknd.

  8. #43
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    Additional play for tomorrow:


    5 units on Utrecht PK/DNB @ -114 away at NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie);


    I'm not a big fan of betting on Dutch league as it can be so random. One week a team will win 5-1 against a team of a similar level then a week later go and lose to bottom of the league 3-2 or something! Nonetheless, I can't resist playing Utrecht PK/DNB after seeing how many regular starters NEC have unavailable. Twente are coming off a solid draw at home to title challengers Twente, whilst NEC on other hand were whooped 4-1 by Vitesse. Not only did NEC lose 4-1, but they also had 3 players sent off which is has added further issues to an already depleted squad. So going in to this game against Utrecht they have the following key players unavailable: Conboy (9apps, defence), Cmovs (11apps, defence), Amieux (4apps, defence), Palsson (7apps, 1 goal, midfield), Evander Sno (7apps), & Ryan Koolwijk (13apps, 4 goals, midfield, Vice-Captain, joint top-scorer). A couple of other players who are usually substitutes are also out (Loen & Van den Meiracker). So that is a good bulk of their defence and midfield missing, and I believe Ryan Koolwijk in particular is going be a significant loss as he is key player at taking set-pieces, distributing the ball from midfield, and scoring goals. They still have a few dangerous players going forward in Soren Rieks (attacking midfield), Navarone Foor (attacking midfield), ten Voorde (attacker, 2 goals), Platje (attack and joint-top scorer with 4 goals), and Leroy George (attacker, 2 goals) so if they perform it's not out of the question that NEC can get something out of this game. The Manager has said that he wants them to continue playing their attacking style so this should lead to an open game and we could see a few goals, hopefully more coming from Utrecht, so Over 2.5,3 or Over 3 could also be a wise bet. With the partnership up front of Mulenga (11apps, 5 goals) and Gendt (11apps, 5 goals) Utrecht can certainly score a couple and should be able to take advantage of NEC's inexperienced and weakened defence. Aside from NEC's absentees, Utrecht also have a few players out in defender Nilsson (3apps), and attackers Duplan (6apps, 1 goal), & Van Der Gun (11apps 2 goals) however Nilsson and Duplan are usually substitutes anyway so the only significant loss is der Gun. Midfielder Sarota (11apps) is a doubt as well but hopefully this will give the young Japanese prospect Yoshiaki Takagi the chance to be in starting line-up and shine and this really could be the perfect game for him to do that.

    Utrecht also have solid away form, with 4 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss which came in their last away game at RKC and was a 4-0 thrashing which is a bit concerning. If they perform like that again then they will lose this even against a weakened NEC squad. Nonetheless, their away from is still better than their home form and have scored 13 goals away from home conceding 9. This bodes well against a team in NEC that have also not been performing as well at home with just 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses, scoring just 6 goals and conceding 12. That one win did come in their last home match against Heracles and their two losses have come against two title challengers in Ajax and Twente so their home form is perhaps not as bad it may seem. So for now the play is Utrecht PK/DNB and may play the Over 3 goals at +110 range later tomorrow after seeing the line-ups. Alternatively I may wait until game has reached 15-20 minute mark and play an Over or add more to Utrecht PK live-in-play depending on how things are looking and how Utrecht are approaching the game.


    Last edited by Vaughany; 11-23-12 at 06:32 PM.

  9. #44
    bolek
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    Hey nice picks tailing you on Utrecht dnb and west brom BUT I played over 1.5 bet 365 didn't have over 1.....thanx and gl
    Also did Borussia // Shalke // Madrid team total over 1.5 parlay at +200 cheers

  10. #45
    Vaughany
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    Adding:


    0.5 units on Zulte-Waregem PK/DNB @ +181 away at AA Gent.

    I think Zulte are being under-valued here, Gent may have the better team on paper but they aren't performing well winning only 1 out of last 8 games. Zulte on the other-hand have won 4 away games in a row conceding just one goal, leading to the best away record in the league with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, conceding the fewest goals in the league away from home (4). This would be a bigger play but keeping it small as Zulte striker and second-top goal scorer Habibou will not play due to slight hamstring strain.
    Last edited by Vaughany; 11-24-12 at 04:33 AM.

  11. #46
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    Also added:


    2 units on Stoke PK/DNB @ -183 at home to Fulham;

    Stoke are unbeaten in last 12 home games at the Britannia whilst Fulham have won 1 game away from home. Fulham have some key players out through injury/suspension including Captain Brede Hangeland (12apps), Kieran Richardson (5apps, 1 goal), Kacaniklic (10apps, 2 goals), & Bryan Ruiz (9apps, 1 goal). Hangeland's suspension is a big blow for a game like this against one of the more physically imposing sides in the Prem. Without Hangeland at the back the likes of Jonathan Walters and of course Peter Crouch should have more success, especially in the air from crosses and set-pieces. This would be a bigger play but you can't count Fulham out as they do have good attacking options in Berbatov (8apps, 5 goals, 3 assists), Petric (7 apps, 4 goals), & Rodallega (10apps, 1 goal). These players can change a game in an instant, however, against a hard-working gritty team like Stoke, I could see likes of Berba and Petric struggling with the physicality of players like Huth. It's these kind of games when you are at a fortress like the Britannia with key players missing where you need players to up their work-rate but you just can't put too much faith in that with players like Berbatov. Also, without Ruiz and to a certain extent Richardson there isn't much creativity in the side other than Petric and Berbatov.


    1 unit on Catania to Score Over 1 Goal @ -124 away at Palermo (Pinnacle - stake back if 1 goal scored);

    The Sicilian Derby is tonight with struggling Palermo hosting Catania who are 7th in the league. Catania are not very good away from home but I still think they should be able to score at least 1 goal against a struggling and inconsistent Palermo side that under new Coach Gasperini like to play a 3-4-3 formation.

  12. #47
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Adding:


    1 unit on West Brom to Score Over 1 goal @ -124 away at Sunderland (Pinnacle).

    Sunderland finally won a game after going 7 on bounce without winning with an impressive 3-1 win away at Fulham last wknd (although Fulham had Hangeland sent off in first half that helped a lot!). They will be very keen to continue from this against West Brom tomorrow and should be able to get a draw at least. However, I'm backing West Brom to Score Over 1 goal on Pinnacle (stake back if they score just 1 goal), as I think Odemwingie and Shane Long are very dangerous and an under-rated partnership up front. They also have Morrison and Gera supporting from midfield who are two solid players who can provide assists and score a couple as well. They have could substitute options as well in Lukaku, Brunt, and Dorrans. West Brom have won 3 on the bounce including an impressive 2-1 win at home to Chelsea last wknd. West Brom have scored at least 1 goal in every game this season except in the 3-0 loss away at Fulham, but key player Odemwingie was sent off in first half of that game so their chances of scoring after that were always going to be slim away from home with 10 men and best striker off the pitch. Sunderland have a rather slow and cumbersome defense with John O'Shea, Bardsley, and Cueller, although Danny Rose at left back does offer pace but he isn't a natural left back and can be caught out of position at times. Their best defender Wes Brown is still out injured. I feel the likes of Odemwingie and Shane Long who both have pace and good movement can definitely exploit Sunderland's lack of pace and athleticism at the back tomorrow. This would be a bigger play but Sunderland even with their dodgy defense do tend to keep the goals down at home - they have not conceded more than 1 goal in any home game this season. Although West Brom might not win tomorrow, I do expect them to score at least 1 goal and if we're lucky maybe 2.
    Winner already after West Brom score two in first half through Gera and Shane Long. Going as I expected, Sunderland's slow defenders struggling with the movement and pace of Long and Odemwingie. O'Shea got booked in first 10 mins after Long raped him for pace and then should of been booked again and sent off after fouling Long but ref booked Long instead for diving! Still didnt matter as Long scored after a shambolic mistake by Mignolet in Goal! Hopefully I dont regret not making this a 5 unit play like the Fiorentina and Utrecht ones, should of had more faith in the play tho.

    +0.8065 units profit

  13. #48
    bolek
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    Hey over 1.5 cashes
    Cheers

  14. #49
    Vaughany
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    Adding:


    2 units on Kasimpasa PK/DNB @ -147 at home to Orduspor (Turkish Super Lig);

    Again, erratic Turkey Super Lig so not going as big as I'm tempted to, but I don't see Kasimpasa losing today at home to Orduspor. Kasimpasa have only lost one game at home this season and that was to the most in-form team in the league in Besiktas at end of last month so is nothing to be ashamed of. Orduspor on other hand are yet to win a game away from home and haven't won a game in their last 6 matches (home or away). I actually bet on Orduspor PK last Monday when they were at home to Trabzonspor as I thought Trabz would struggle without two key players in Zokora and Adrian. Instead Trabz proved to be the better side and at half-time I decided to arb out of my play on Orduspor PK with Trabzonspor PK as it just didnt look like Orduspor were going to score. They seemed a bit leggy and it proved to be a good decision as Trabzonspor went on to win 2-1. Kasimpasa meanwhile have looked a lot better since Shota Arveladze took over and I think they will scrape a 2-1 win today.

  15. #50
    BigBurk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Winner already after West Brom score two in first half through Gera and Shane Long. Going as I expected, Sunderland's slow defenders struggling with the movement and pace of Long and Odemwingie. O'Shea got booked in first 10 mins after Long raped him for pace and then should of been booked again and sent off after fouling Long but ref booked Long instead for diving! Still didnt matter as Long scored after a shambolic mistake by Mignolet in Goal! Hopefully I dont regret not making this a 5 unit play like the Fiorentina and Utrecht ones, should of had more faith in the play tho.

    +0.8065 units profit
    Nice hit! Wish they'd all come this easy...

  16. #51
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Adding:


    2 units on Kasimpasa PK/DNB @ -147 at home to Orduspor (Turkish Super Lig);

    Again, erratic Turkey Super Lig so not going as big as I'm tempted to, but I don't see Kasimpasa losing today at home to Orduspor. Kasimpasa have only lost one game at home this season and that was to the most in-form team in the league in Besiktas at end of last month so is nothing to be ashamed of. Orduspor on other hand are yet to win a game away from home and haven't won a game in their last 6 matches (home or away). I actually bet on Orduspor PK last Monday when they were at home to Trabzonspor as I thought Trabz would struggle without two key players in Zokora and Adrian. Instead Trabz proved to be the better side and at half-time I decided to arb out of my play on Orduspor PK with Trabzonspor PK as it just didnt look like Orduspor were going to score. They seemed a bit leggy and it proved to be a good decision as Trabzonspor went on to win 2-1. Kasimpasa meanwhile have looked a lot better since Shota Arveladze took over and I think they will scrape a 2-1 win today.
    Kasim pretty much dominating first half-hour...had 3 or 4 great chances...could see this being one of those games where they just cant get the ball in back of net and then Orduspor go and steal one from a corner or something!

  17. #52
    Vaughany
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    Kasim take the lead just before half-time

  18. #53
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by bolek View Post
    Hey over 1.5 cashes
    Cheers
    Went and scored 4 goals in the end! Should of gone much bigger!

  19. #54
    Vaughany
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    Adding:


    0.69 units on Everton/Norwich Under 3 goals @ -138;

    Everton without Phil Neville, Mirallas, and most significantly top-scorer Fellaini. I might regret not playing Norwich +1 A.H. but at least if Everton win 2-0 I'll still have a winner and if it's 3-0 a push. I think Norwich will be able to keep it tight though and keep it at 1-1 like last season's meeting at Goodison Park, or worst-case lose 2-1.

  20. #55
    BigBurk
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    How do you like RKC Waalwijk pk and Heerenveen pk? Think I might play them both, if 5d finally offers them.

  21. #56
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigBurk View Post
    How do you like RKC Waalwijk pk and Heerenveen pk? Think I might play them both, if 5d finally offers them.
    yeah I was contemplating RKC PK earlier but then saw that it was -194 on Pinnacle which is a bit steep for me, would need to be closer to -150 to -175 range for me to play it. Heerenveen is a team I tend to stay away from, they have screwed me a couple times with their inconsistency!

  22. #57
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Kasim take the lead just before half-time
    Ah well Kasim go and blow it and draw 1-1 so this one's a push...combination of not taking their chances and Orduspor's Fornezzi making some solid saves in first half, and a very determined second half performance from Orduspor.

  23. #58
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Also added:


    2 units on Stoke PK/DNB @ -183 at home to Fulham;

    Stoke are unbeaten in last 12 home games at the Britannia whilst Fulham have won 1 game away from home. Fulham have some key players out through injury/suspension including Captain Brede Hangeland (12apps), Kieran Richardson (5apps, 1 goal), Kacaniklic (10apps, 2 goals), & Bryan Ruiz (9apps, 1 goal). Hangeland's suspension is a big blow for a game like this against one of the more physically imposing sides in the Prem. Without Hangeland at the back the likes of Jonathan Walters and of course Peter Crouch should have more success, especially in the air from crosses and set-pieces. This would be a bigger play but you can't count Fulham out as they do have good attacking options in Berbatov (8apps, 5 goals, 3 assists), Petric (7 apps, 4 goals), & Rodallega (10apps, 1 goal). These players can change a game in an instant, however, against a hard-working gritty team like Stoke, I could see likes of Berba and Petric struggling with the physicality of players like Huth. It's these kind of games when you are at a fortress like the Britannia with key players missing where you need players to up their work-rate but you just can't put too much faith in that with players like Berbatov. Also, without Ruiz and to a certain extent Richardson there isn't much creativity in the side other than Petric and Berbatov.
    Stoke are doing same as Kasimpasa and not taking their chances...wouldnt be surprised to see Fulham grab a late equaliser

  24. #59
    hotelis
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    anderlecht/beerschot over 2.5?

  25. #60
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Also added:


    2 units on Stoke PK/DNB @ -183 at home to Fulham;

    Stoke are unbeaten in last 12 home games at the Britannia whilst Fulham have won 1 game away from home. Fulham have some key players out through injury/suspension including Captain Brede Hangeland (12apps), Kieran Richardson (5apps, 1 goal), Kacaniklic (10apps, 2 goals), & Bryan Ruiz (9apps, 1 goal). Hangeland's suspension is a big blow for a game like this against one of the more physically imposing sides in the Prem. Without Hangeland at the back the likes of Jonathan Walters and of course Peter Crouch should have more success, especially in the air from crosses and set-pieces. This would be a bigger play but you can't count Fulham out as they do have good attacking options in Berbatov (8apps, 5 goals, 3 assists), Petric (7 apps, 4 goals), & Rodallega (10apps, 1 goal). These players can change a game in an instant, however, against a hard-working gritty team like Stoke, I could see likes of Berba and Petric struggling with the physicality of players like Huth. It's these kind of games when you are at a fortress like the Britannia with key players missing where you need players to up their work-rate but you just can't put too much faith in that with players like Berbatov. Also, without Ruiz and to a certain extent Richardson there isn't much creativity in the side other than Petric and Berbatov.


    0.69 units on Everton/Norwich Under 3 goals @ -138;
    Everton without Phil Neville, Mirallas, and most significantly top-scorer Fellaini. I might regret not playing Norwich +1 A.H. but at least if Everton win 2-0 I'll still have a winner and if it's 3-0 a push. I think Norwich will be able to keep it tight though and keep it at 1-1 like last season's meeting at Goodison Park, or worst-case lose 2-1.
    A couple more winners...Stoke win 1-0 (+1.0929 units) and Everton Norwich finishes 1-1 (+0.5 units)...

    +1.5929 units profit

  26. #61
    BigBurk
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    Nice nice!! Although I would have really liked Everton NOT to suffer a late goal.

  27. #62
    Vaughany
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    Utrecht aren't lookin good, 1-0 down already, probably gonna concede again on counter

  28. #63
    bolek
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    Gonna do live bet draw ...gl

  29. #64
    Vaughany
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    Utrecht are creating some chances now

  30. #65
    Vaughany
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    fuuuck amazing header by Beaur to clear shot off the line...should of been 1-1 ther

  31. #66
    Vaughany
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    fuuuck sake shambolic error by Utrecht keeper

  32. #67
    thes0vereign
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    He overplayed the first goal, too.

  33. #68
    Vaughany
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    Going to play the Over 3.5,4 goals at half time...should be a couple more in this...Utrecht are gonna have to attack and leave spaces at back

  34. #69
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by thes0vereign View Post
    He overplayed the first goal, too.
    yeah absolute joke!

    Need a couple more goals now in second-half...preferably from Utrecht! Though I expect it will look more like the RKC match a couple wknds ago when they lost 4-0

  35. #70
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    fuuuuck another chance cleared off line...nothing going right

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