what's up people, been a small-time grinder for a long time, never started with BR of at least 500+ except twice. always built my way up. i've tried 200+ bets just 3 times, of i'm 1-2 (2 a few years ago, 1 on a brazilian over that ended 0-0, 1 a live-in play in football 4th quarter garbage time which was about -400, and 1 on arsenal-liverpool with arsenal pk, we know how that turned out). finally decided to come back for a while, and instead of slowly building my way up this time i'm going to try an all or nothing "smash and grab" this weekend. i've already been looking around to see what i'm going to play this weekend and i've come up with a preliminary list.
starting BR is of $600. thinking about starting with 2 plays saturday morning. too chicken to go all-in at the start, but then again the only worse thing than losing an all-in is going 0-2 all-in. so it's either 2 plays, 3, or 4 to begin with.
so far epl/bundesliga i'm thinking about:
bolton win
leverkusen win
nurnberg/bremen over 2.5, 3
hoffenheim/wolfsburg over 2.5, 3
- i'm confident about bolton handling business even though norwich is a defensively solid team. bolton has had false results playing against such tough opponents at the start.
- leverkusen playing hapless koln looks obvious enough, but this line is already at around -230, i wouldn't be sure how to incorporate this play into anywhere
- 5 games in both nurnberg/bremen stand at 3 unders 2 overs. but you see the games: nurnberg shocking hertha first day, at dortmund and at home to very closed off augsburg. bremen 2 2-0's at home and a 0-1 away to leverkusen. i dont expect this game to be one sided at all. somehow in bundesliga evenly matched doesnt mean 0-0, it means 2-1/2-2.
- same thing goes for wolfsburg and hoffenheim. 3 unders 2 overs each. the teams anchor their defense away from home and against tough elite opponents (bayern/dortmund/leverkusen) and are happy to fight it out with the lesser elites.
so i dont know how i'm going to be playing these four leans, i bet the 2 i choose end up going 0-2 and the others go 2-0, its just how it is! so i'll end up going with my gut, and i prefer playing overs than a straight win. maybe play all of them, parlay leverkusen/bolton and the other two straight.
then if things go right:
vvv/heerenveen over 3 (very juiced, will probably go to 3, 3.5)
vitesse roda over 3
lille/sochaux over 2.5
after that it's brazil:
sao paulo win
vasco win
so yeah. time to put things in motion, will update tomorrow.
just a stupid experiment, but a serious experiment.