[Pema]

Hello!

From now on I will post my picks for the German Bundesliga on this forum.

I have watched football for many years and have started to bet on football games the last seasons. Besides, I have played poker for rather high stakes, so I'm quite confident about my take on the theory of betting and money management in general. That said, these are just suggestions, feel free to bet them. I will play everything I post here myself, but as always there is no guarantee to win a bet, so proceed with caution

To see how I did, here are my privious picks this season:

Day 1: was on holiday, no play

Day 2:
Wolfsburg - Bayern Muenchen goals under 3 WIN

Day 3:
Dortmund - Nuernberg Dortmund -1,5 WIN
Stuttgart - Leverkusen Leverkusen + 0,25 WIN
Augsburg - Hoffenheim Augsburg pk LOSS
Koeln - Kaiserslautern goals under 2,5 LOSS
Hannover - Berlin Berlin +0,25 WIN
total goals on Saturday + 17,5 WIN

Day 4:
Wolfsburg - Freiburg Wolfsburg SU LOSS
Hoffenheim - Bremen Bremen +0,25 WIN



For now, all plays will be for 1 Unit.

On to the plays for the next game day:

Day 5:

- Freiburg - Bayern Muenchen
Freiburg +2
+106

- Mainz - Hoffenheim *
Goals over 2,5
-104

-VfB - Hannover
Hannover + 0,5
+208

- Gladbach - Kaiserslautern
Goals under 2,5
-104

- Wolfsburg - Schalke
Schalke pk
+106


- all Saturday games
away teams +6,5
-113

I have handicapped all the games, these are not just random picks. Since a write-up for each game would take too long to write, I decided to just post the picks for now. However, if you want to know the reasoning behind the picks, I will answer the questions.

Good luck!

[BetGrinder]

will u keep this thread running or a new one each week?

which book do u use that allow u to make that cool bet "- all Saturday games
away teams +6,5
-113" ??

good luck

[FindTheLock]

bayern are scoring at will so far. 3-0 HT Ribery might get a hat trick.

[Pema]

Ok, 2-3 for today, the Bayern match was pretty brutal. I'll post a write-up the next days.

I'll continue posting my picks the next weeks, probably in this thread.

I used Pinny for the all teams on Sunday bet. You can bet home/away and over/under for all Saturday games.

Go Schalke, go!

[Pema]

Ok, 2-3 for today, the Bayern match was pretty brutal. I'll post a write-up the next days.

I'll continue posting my picks the next weeks, probably in this thread.

I used Pinny for the all teams on Sunday bet. You can bet home/away and over/under for all Saturday games.

Go Schalke, go!

[Pema]

Last Minute Addition
Köln Pk +105 for 1 Unit, the line just got better

Bol!

[Daveyboy]

Hello!
Day 5:

- Freiburg - Bayern Muenchen
Freiburg +2
+106

- Mainz - Hoffenheim *
Goals over 2,5
-104

-VfB - Hannover
Hannover + 0,5
+208

- Gladbach - Kaiserslautern
Goals under 2,5
-104

- Wolfsburg - Schalke
Schalke pk
+106


- all Saturday games
away teams +6,5
-113

I have handicapped all the games, these are not just random picks. Since a write-up for each game would take too long to write, I decided to just post the picks for now. However, if you want to know the reasoning behind the picks, I will answer the questions.

Good luck!

I've highlighted the stupid pick, but even though Hannover lost 3-0 I wasn't expecting them to lose either

[Pema]

Last week didn't go as planned, here a short summary of the games:

- Freiburg: After the early goal the bet was pretty much lost. Whenever Bayern scores an early goal at home it becomes very difficult for the opposing team to defend well. Freiburg wasn't able to do this because of their lacking effort and overall bad defense. That said, I still think if Bayern doesnt score that early, we talk about a different kind of game. But all in all the bet probably wasnt that good, because Bayern was on a roll.

- away teams: +6,5 is a lot to cover in the Bundesliga, so I still think this bet is +ev in the long run. Unfortunately Bayern singlehandedly covered the spread for the home teams

- Gladbach under: Kaiserslautern was too bad offensively to score a goal and Gladbach not good enough to score more than 2. Easy win.

- Hannover: for whatever reason the Hannover squad didn't show up. There seems to be a reason why they just won one of the last 15 games they played in Stuttgart. Unfortunately, I trusted my gut feeling on this game.

- Mainz over: after the early goal for Hoffeneheim, the over was pretty much safe. I really thought Mainz would win in a high scoring game but they never really were in the game and all the key situations went against them.

-Koeln: this bet was really bad, the good line sucked me in, but even after the red card for Pekhardt, Koeln wasn't able to really dominate the game. Solbakken still has a lot of work to do to get the team competitive.

- Schalke: Schalke dominated early on and after scoring the goal seemed to win easily. For whatever reason they let Wolfsburg back into the game and in the last minutes even lost. Still think the bet was OK.

All in all I'm really disappointed with the way I handicapped some of the games and how the games actually played out.

I might not post any plays until I get back on track, since I don't want anyone to lose money because of me. I'll think about it.

[Pema]

Last week didn't go as planned, here a short summary of the games:

- Freiburg: After the early goal the bet was pretty much lost. Whenever Bayern scores an early goal at home it becomes very difficult for the opposing team to defend well. Freiburg wasn't able to do this because of their lacking effort and overall bad defense. That said, I still think if Bayern doesnt score that early, we talk about a different kind of game. But all in all the bet probably wasnt that good, because Bayern was on a roll.

- away teams: +6,5 is a lot to cover in the Bundesliga, so I still think this bet is +ev in the long run. Unfortunately Bayern singlehandedly covered the spread for the home teams

- Gladbach under: Kaiserslautern was too bad offensively to score a goal and Gladbach not good enough to score more than 2. Easy win.

- Hannover: for whatever reason the Hannover squad didn't show up. There seems to be a reason why they just won one of the last 15 games they played in Stuttgart. Unfortunately, I trusted my gut feeling on this game.

- Mainz over: after the early goal for Hoffeneheim, the over was pretty much safe. I really thought Mainz would win in a high scoring game but they never really were in the game and all the key situations went against them.

-Koeln: this bet was really bad, the good line sucked me in, but even after the red card for Pekhardt, Koeln wasn't able to really dominate the game. Solbakken still has a lot of work to do to get the team competitive.

- Schalke: Schalke dominated early on and after scoring the goal seemed to win easily. For whatever reason they let Wolfsburg back into the game and in the last minutes even lost. Still think the bet was OK.

All in all I'm really disappointed with the way I handicapped some of the games and how the games actually played out.

I might not post any plays until I get back on track, since I don't want anyone to lose money because of me. I'll think about it.

[BetGrinder]

do u only bet Bundesliga games?

[FindTheLock]

I watched the entire wolfsburg-shalke game and wolfsburg dominated for most of the game. They could have won by a lot more. The only thing shalke did was at the very beginning. Shalke was on their heels getting pelted with shots after that, and Shalke hasn't won in Wolfsburg since 2003.

[TomJSports]

I watched the entire wolfsburg-shalke game and wolfsburg dominated for most of the game. They could have won by a lot more. The only thing shalke did was at the very beginning. Shalke was on their heels getting pelted with shots after that, and Shalke hasn't won in Wolfsburg since 2003.

Schalke is looking especially sketchy this year. A lot of top tier teams: Bayer, BVB, and VfB are looking ugly. Only two teams that may take it to Bayern are Werder and maybe Gladbach. It's an early season, and post transfer, these squads should get it together, otherwise, it'll be a topsy-turvy year in Bundesliga.

[TomJSports]

Well not necessarily 'ugly' per se, but just difficult to call what team is going to show up on the pitch. Same team can look brilliant and terrible in a matter of days.

[Pema]

I bet on football (Bundesliga and international) und NFL games.

I watched the Schalke-Wolfsburg game and have to disagree with you. Wolfsburg was really lucky that Schalke let them back into the game and even in the second half when Wolfsburg was the better team Huntelaar had a chance to score the (probably) decisive goal for Schalke.

I agree, some of the "good" teams sometimes don't show up for the games. Although I think Dortmund will be quite good once Barrios comes back. I still think that Bayern is slightly overrated at the moment.

[FindTheLock]

I bet on football (Bundesliga and international) und NFL games.

I watched the Schalke-Wolfsburg game and have to disagree with you. Wolfsburg was really lucky that Schalke let them back into the game and even in the second half when Wolfsburg was the better team Huntelaar had a chance to score the (probably) decisive goal for Schalke.

I agree, some of the "good" teams sometimes don't show up for the games. Although I think Dortmund will be quite good once Barrios comes back. I still think that Bayern is slightly overrated at the moment.

we see things differently then. I am ok with that. I think Wolfsburg hit the post a few times and had a lot more chances on goal then shalke did, but either way it was not smart to bet on wolfsburg in the form they are in recently. I only bet on them in that game because of the tremendous value of getting +248 on the home team. That and the fact that Shalke hasn't beaten Wolfsburg when wolfsburg was the home team in 8 years.

[TomJSports]

I agree, some of the "good" teams sometimes don't show up for the games. Although I think Dortmund will be quite good once Barrios comes back. I still think that Bayern is slightly overrated at the moment.

I definitely agree. BVB is better than they showed against Hertha or Arsenal. Barrios returning will be huge. Ohh, and I'm a Bayern fan, but when isn't Bayern overrated? :P

[FindTheLock]

I am also a bayern fan, but I am really hoping this is their year in the champions league!

[TomJSports]

Hopefully. The matchup against City in ten days will be huge. But the top squads, ManU, Real, and Barça have all shown they're possible to be beaten. And I like Bayern a lot, especially if Ribéry and Robben are on the pitch together. Olić back will help out Gómez, too. Should be a fun year. Hope for the treble!