[Wilforth]

Spain: Valladolid +210 (vs Osasuna)

Valladolid are the road team and their road stats are far from impressive. That's why Osasuna are highly favored by the bookmakers. Now let's look at the facts:

Valladolid are a deceptive 1-5 in their L6 road games. The 5 road losses were against teams that are both stronger and have better home record than Osasuna. For instance, one of those losses was against Barcelona. Any team can be excused for losing to Barcelona. The fact is that Valladolid have been improving since the start of the season. They've won 3 of their L4.
On the flip side, Osasuna have won only one of their L6 home games. They've failed to score in 3 of their L4 home games.
The head-to-head stats show that Valladolid haven't beaten Osasuna in the L5 meetings at Osasuna. Three of those 5 ended in draws. But the fact is that we have a "reborn" Valladolid facing a wilting Osasuna. We can't go by the stats of previous meetings to decipher the outcome of today's meeting. This same Valladolid went to Villareal last week and thrashed them 3-0. For your information, Villareal are in the top 4 while Osasuna are in the bottom 2.
Bottomline: we have a team that have won 3 of their L4 versus one that have lost 5 of their L7 and have failed to score in 3 of their L4 home games. You decide who really are the favorites.

[bostonbruins]

Nice write up, the numbers on this are very deceiving.

BOL

[Wilforth]

Nice write up, the numbers on this are very deceiving.

BOL

Thanks. We need to know when to ignore stats.

[englishmike]

Thanks. We need to know when to ignore stats.

Good point Willie, I put as much into logic and gut instinct as I do stats nowadays.