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anybody knows the math on soccer?
sbr has a betting tool called the "half point calculator" that calculates whether buying a half point is worth the price offered and it works great but unfortunately for me the calculator does not calculate the half point in soccer but does anybody know how to do the math manually or anybody knows of a website that can calculate it? any kind of feedback will be greatly appreciated
I don't use a math calculator in soccer but when I play totals and there is a +120 line for under 2 and a -150 line for under 2.5 (this is all hypothetical) it take the under 2 line +120.
or do the oppositeOriginally Posted by pavyracer
but it depends slightly on the league
use the dropdown menu at pinnacle to get a rough feel
Thanks durito for the pinny tip.
My thinking is I'd rather push or win a +120 bet than lose a -150 bet but I'm pretty sure there is some math involved in it on which is the better bet. But if I have a good feeling about an under the probable scores I factor in are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and least the 1-1 so it makes more sense for me to bet the under 2 which is 3 out of the 4 probable scores I factored in my capping.
The same can be said for overs. If there is a better line for over 3 I'd would rather take that than over 2.5 juiced.
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betting under/overs in Soccer is dodgy to say the least, its asking a lot to get the required extra goal or part of and the books tend to lay the vig on the obvious result (as opposed to M/L betting normally) If you have a theory I suggest you bet down or up to the best even price ( to get this you will need multy accounts) basically staying away from heavy vig. At no time think of hedging a winning position ( EG Halftime or in running) and if you have to use anything for the cost of a goal then its either your own odds on a draw or the books, whichever is bigger.
I use gut feeling but mostly losing ones
As Durito said it depends on each league.
0.5 goals in the French league is a lot different to the Dutch league.
there's no math in soccer
No thats a wrong way to look at it. All odds are the same no matter what the league, its just your draw percentage will be different and goal expectation will be higher or lower.
that doesnt help your credibility. then again its obvious your not a winni g bettor on footy
If there is some math involved with soccer I would like to know it because I have been making money for the last 25 years betting soccer without ever using math.
Soccer is not a statistics sport. It's not like basketball and football where you can calculate possessions per game or yards per run and apply it to a math model on predicting totals.
A soccer game may have 30 shots on goal and only 2 goals or 10 shots on goal and 5 goals. Go ahead and try to model this and see it's meaningless stats. Only stat that matters is when the ball is in the net.
Word.
I understand your thinking which I agree with on the sports you mentioned yet what is the difference between tempo resulting in scores in basketball and tempo resulting in goals in soccer, its all relative to the sport. Surely you have bet the over in a NBA game where the tempo was correct but they just missed the shots, I know I have. Its expectation we bet on not reality.
You can't predict soccer tempo before the game starts. It all depends if and when the first goal is scored. Teams change formations during the game depending on what happens on the field. If they are down they will risk and go forward to score a goal increasing the chance of an over. If the game keeps dragging on a tie they may hold up until the last minutes to change formation and go for the win. But you can't predict all that before the game starts. This is why many games where the line for the over is @ 3 end up 0-0 or 0-1 and games where the line for over is @ 2 end up 3-1 or 2-2. Because no one can predict what will happen during the game before the game starts.
so how do you win betting?
I think the avatar says it all.
By picking 5 out 7 or 6 out of 8 winners on +EV bets 6 out of 7 days a week. Basically it's called I know what I'm doing.
But if you can´t predict what happens before the match how do you pick winners?
Using math for appraising team ability is unrelated to using math in choosing between bet offers.
I guess what the most probable outcome of the game is by studying the teams playing, lineups, motivation for the game, weather conditions, linesmakers opening line and line movement to see if it's relevant to my analysis and most of the times I'm more right than wrong.
Last edited by pavyracer; 09-02-11 at 06:29 AM.
That's what I do, that's what everyone should do. You pick 7-9 most probable outcomes and usually 5-7 are correct. Football is more art than science, hence why I do better in leagues/tourneys I follow more closely rather than 'eyeing' stats.
Math and logic don't exist in gambling world
Well said Pavy.
Why I said there's no math in soccer? Because soccer is different then US Sports. In US Sports, you can develop handicapping models, a system based on stats&situational trends etc. However, soccer is a different animal. Let's say Team A is scoring 2.0 goals per game and Team B is scoring 1.5 goals per game. You can't say there will be 3.5 goals in that game!
You should observe/watch the game. So math alone is not enough in soccer betting.
Also you should pick your spots. As I see, a soccer bettor usually tries to cover all leagues. He bets on Bundesliga, he bets on LA Liga, he bets on Brazil..how you can follow all leagues? It's impossible. Just pick some leagues and focus on them. Usually, you can have a good advantage in your local league. Last season, books offered very nice odds on Under for Bucaspor games and they were not aware of Bucaspor's field was like a farming field. Not surpisingly, majority of games went under. Then books readjusted lines but it took some time 'til they realized it.
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http://www.onlinecasinohelp.com/compare2.htm
Read it like that: If SBObet's no-vig line (which we assume is the sharp line most of the time) in the AH -1 market is 2.11 then the same team should be 1.65 to win the game. So if you can get 1.75 for that at some Euro bookmaker you have a value bet. AH and totals are linked (for example if the favourite gets backed then then more goals are expected in the game) but you should only use this as a rough guide as many factors are ignored e.g one team always sits back after taking the lead whereas another team completely collapses once they concede.
It's useful for determining all the derivatives from the Asian lines, though. For example a goal supremacy of 0.9 and a total of 2.72 means that team A is expected to score 1.81 goals and team B 0.91 goals. With poisson distribution you can then calculate how likely team A is to score a certain amount of goals and therefore all correct score as well as all over/under markets.
Last edited by blackf1re; 09-02-11 at 06:50 AM.
there are only 2-3 goals some times no score. how can you use the stats? there isn't any math.
stats don't work on soccer handicapping. it seems american guys always use stats while capping to US sports, and they suppose that stats are main point for handicapping.
this is not true for soccer and horse racing. I'm affraid that you have to watch soccer matches for 10 years at least.you might understand what we mean.
I'm not buying to those 1.81 goals or 0.9 goals per game for soccer. This is not american football where you can score 1, 2 , 3 or 6 points per play depending on the score. In soccer 1 goal = 1 goal. So taking a team's 1.81 goals avg and adding it to the other team's 0.9 goals avg it doesn't mean the game will go over 2.5. In fact the variance of these stats will be huge in the beginning of the season. Also a team may start their schedule with 4-5 weak or 4-5 strong opponents and therefore making these stats meaningless. You also can't use stats from years before because of different players, coaches, systems, etc.
As I said it's just a rough guide. But it's certainly useful for spotting glaring pricing errors. It doesn't replace research. You have to realise though that all the factors you've just mentioned translate into numbers. There is a number and probability assigned to the fact that a certain team was given the runaround in midweek and might be a little tired. I keep my own goal supremacy table for the league I want to bet in which I update and tweak after each matchday where I take all those things into account. All the side markets are based on goal supremacy ratings so if you get that right you can find a lot of value in the derivates as well.
OK let me ask you this. Lets say there is game to be played on Saturday. On Thursday you found a great line at a book for the over and booked it. Then 45 minutes before the game starts you look at the starting line-ups and the coach decided to rest the best scorer of the team you backed. It's also raining and the pitch is like a cow pasture. What do you do now? That great line you got on Thursday doesn't look so great anymore. How do you factor derivatives and bet a good line before you know what the starting line-ups are or what the pitch conditions are at game time?
I don't see what relevance that has to the discussion at hand.
At the moment of placing the bet with the information available at the time it was a good bet. That's all that matters. What about when the team I'm betting AGAINST decides to rest their best scorer? Suddenly my bet got even better. But I can't brag about having placed a huge value because at the time it was only a small one. If I know on a Thursday that it's gonna rain on Sunday then I'm obviously incorporating this into my own line (in whichever way that might be) if I'm aiming for the highest accuracy possible. But I can't act on something I don't know yet. Neither can bookmakers btw. So I don't see the point.
There is no need to place a bet 2 days ahead of time just because it looks too good to be true. There is huge line movement in soccer in the 45 minutes before kick off. And it has nothing to do with stats. If you don't understand the importance of starting line-ups, formations and coache's tactics before kickoff you shouldn't be betting lines that are too good to be true 2 days ahead of kickoff in soccer.
The quoted part about the line movements just reinforces my point that bookmakers don't know everything either. They as you come up with prices they assume to be correct at this point in time. Nobody knows who's gonna get injured the next minute so you can't process that information as you don't have it yet.
It doesn't matter if it's 2 hours, 2 days or 2 months before kickoff. If you see a +EV opportunity (based on information that is available RIGHT NOW) in one of the upcoming Champions League fixtures (still 10 days away) you take it. Who cares if the line moves against you or in your favour (you seem to ignore that possibility btw)? If you can get 2.00 for a team that should be 1.80 right now you place the bet. It's irrelevant if said team drifts to 2.20 or shortens to 1.6 prior kickoff.
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