Hey, im going to track my picks here. Looking forward to seeing how i go by capping with control and good money management. Tracking it publicly should help.

Ive always been good at picking winners but have never bet using good restraint when needed. Mostly just lead myself to screw up my winnings by betting on games in other leagues outside my knowledge, or games in the PL which i didn't have a strong feeling for.

So i'll be staking either with 1 or 2 units. Mostly 2 units.

Let's do this.

Here's my first pick.

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Sunderland vs Bolton
Sunderland : pk and -0.5 (-102)
2 Units

Sunderland have been playing well recently. The results just aren't backing up the performances. They've dominated games and created chances at home but poor finishing has been letting them down. Last game against West Ham was just that game - playing a high-tempo game in spurts, dominating possession and missing good chances when they came.

Bolton have pulled out some pretty good away wins recently but if you look into each game, its came at the fortune of two typical poor home performances from both West Ham and Boro. While at Hull, they were clearly the inferior team and if it wasnt for Jaaskelainen pulling up some ridiculous saves, they should of lost that game, let alone came out with a win themselves. They do have a solid and defensive style away from home which can be effective against teams that are off their game, when they can frustrate them and then pick up a goal through a defensive lapse or mistake by the opponent. Though if the home team is playing well, they do look weak mentally and lack in quality to get a result. Something they used to have when Allardyce managed them.

I don't see a poor showing from Sunderland and expect a similar performance like last week. They should create some good oppurtunities and hopefully convert them for a win. At worst they should not lose, for a one unit loss.