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Chelsea not to finish in top 4 2011/12
Ok I know this seems crazy, but I have spent a lot of time thinking about this.
I am betting Liverpool to finish in the top 4 next season (explaination near the end). In order to do so one of the current top 4 obviously can't. I have written a summary of my predictions for each club next year.
First off Man Utd. Considering how they have played this season and the squad they have, it is difficult to see how they won't be challenging for the title again next season. When I look at the squad sometimes it baffles me how they do so well. Veteran players such as Giggs have obviously been a big help, but they have made good additions aswell. Nani and Chicarito for me are the best of them. Some of their greatest players eg Scholes and Giggs are coming to the end of their careers and it will hurt Utd. Scholes may retire at the end of this season, but Giggs will be there for another year at least. Regardless of this era of change, Man Utd are too strong and too well managed to drop out of the top 4 next season.
Arsenal have really let themselves down the last 2 seasons. They have come so close to glory yet they have choked every time. The Carling Cup final this year was such a joke for them. Fair play to Birmingham but there is no way Arsenal should have lost that final. The club was desperate for silverware and they had all the ability to win that game. That has hurt their confidence so much. There is a lot of doom and gloom around Emirates and I'm sure Wenger will be hurting more than anyone. The 2 champions league games against Barca aswell. For some reason Arsenal kept telling themselves they were the underdogs, they couldn't do it blah blah blah, but they had a chance and if they had believed that they could have made it through (this year being the best chance). It seems probable that Fabregas will be departing this summer but I actually think it will benefit Arsenal in the long run. For too long Arsenal have been lost without Van Persie and Fabregas in the team. It is similar to Liverpool when they relied on Gerrard and Torres. But the Arsenal squad is so much better than the Liverpool squad. They need to take away that reliance on big names and learn that they are good players.
Arsenal badly need a new keeper and a strong CB and I believe Wenger will break out the chequebook next season and sign the players he needs. I also think once Fabregas leaves, Wenger will build the team around Wilshere who is going to be one of the best players in the league. Depending on who they sign Arsenal might have a shot at the title, but once again I think it will be their mental fortitude that is put to the test rather than their football. Either way I think they will have more than enough to finish in the top 4.
Man City have done what they needed to do this season. They got into the top 4 and won a trophy. Now Man City have an excellent array of players, although they don't play that well together as a team. But they have a ridiculous treasure chest and with CL they can attract the world's greatest players.
It is a tricky situation for the owners. The only real weak link I see is Mancini. I don't think he is a bad manager I just don't think he can handle the pressure of the owner's demands. You can see in his interviews how much pressure that man is under. He has done everything asked of him this year though so I would be surprised if the owners axed him now. But I do think eventually they will attempt to bring in a manager capable of managing a team of Galacticos (yes, City are basically the new Real Madrid in terms of their financial power).
Mancini's tactics are very dull and negative, but it pays off. Mourinho won the prem with Chelsea by playing some dull football and winning a lot of games 1-0. I think that with the money they have and the potential to sign players with CL qualification, City can only get stronger. I'm expecting City to become one of the toughest defensive teams in the league combined with some ridiculous flare players. They will once again qualify for the CL in 11/12.
Finally Chelsea. Of all the clubs I see right now in the top 4, I can only see Chelsea getting weaker. First of all the management situation is a joke. Since Mourinho left in 2007 Chelsea have had 4 different managers (Grant, Scolari, Hiddink and Ancelotti). The majority of people are saying that Ancelotti is on his way out too. Whilst I think parting ways with Grant and Scolari were the right decisions, how the hell did they get the job in the first place? If Ancelotti does go Chelsea need to make a good decision on who they bring in to replace him.
If a new manager does come in, from the off they know that if they don't achieve, they are going to get axed and quickly too. Now this is a common pressure in modern football today, but in my opinion Managers can't truly reach their potential unless they feel safe. Look what happened to Roy Hodgson. The man was so afraid to make a bad decision at Liverpool, that he ended up being the maker of his own demise. He was always the wrong choice for Liverpool, but he is a great example of how a manager can buckle under the pressure. Chelsea's new manager, or Ancelotti if he stays, will have to handle that pressure.
Chelsea also have a very aged squad. Whilst they are all still great players, age takes its toll on everyone. The team is approaching a time of reshaping where key players are on the decline and need replacing (eg Drogba). One of the reasons I like this bet is I am not convinced Chelsea are capable of being as successful in the transfer window as their rivals. They signed David Luiz who has looked quality since he arrived, but Torres for £50m? I don't understand the logic behind that. It shows Chelsea have the financial muscle to compete in the transfer market, but do they have the sense? Having a philosophy of big price = good player can bury you. I think all the clubs I'm backing to finish in the top 4 next season have a better transfer policy than Chelsea and will end up having more success.
A lot may argue that Arsenal are the weak link in the top 4 at the moment, but I think Wenger has enough experience to rebuild and succeed. Arsenal have been without a trophy for 6 years yet every year they are competing. I don't think the challenge at Wenger's feet is as daunting as Chelsea's. Wenger has so many young players that are only going to be better next season and they have been playing together as a team for a while. If Arsenal bring in a couple of key experienced players who can rally the troops in difficult games and keep them together mentally then they will be fine. Arsenal have been stitched up so many times by bad goal keeping and defending this season. If they can make the signings to correct that they will be a force again.
Chelsea have been a good team this year, but great teams can easily fall, especially when good players are on their way out or in decline.
Chelsea have had rampant starts to their last 2 campaigns, leaving everyone else playing catch up. I think with new players and a new manager Chelsea may struggle to get a good start which has been key for them in recent seasons.
I am very confident Liverpool can regain Champions league next season. With the new owners the old regime of Hicks and Gillett is finally over! The debt and philosophy that has destroyed the club has gone. The new owners NESV have already started to work many strategies in order to succeed. They have made plans to renovate Anfield so that Liverpool can keep its great history alive in a great stadium. They have acquired a new sponsorship deal that gives them more money than any other club in the prem. They have tapped into the asian market aswell. End of the day football clubs are businesses that need to be run well. Obviously we as fans don't care about that side of it, but it is important to know our clubs are being run well and I feel NESV are laying great foundations for Liverpool to build on. Especially with the new UEFA financial rules coming into play, that mean no club can spend more than it earns on transfers etc. It is important for Liverpool to be as profitable as it can be so that it can reinvest that money in the team.
Whilst the Liverpool squad in its current form might not quite have enough to make it into the top 4, with a few key additions I see no reason why they can't. Liverpool's problems are not that hard to fix either. Tottenham for instance have a good squad but they lack that quality striker to get them 20-30 goals a season. Great strikers aren't easy to acquire. Liverpool have players like Gerrard and Suarez to build the team around. Reina aswell, one of the best goalkeepers in the world and probably the best in the prem. If Liverpool can sure up a few positions eg. LB, CB and grab a quality winger, they will be a great force again.
I am a Liverpool fan so obviously my opinion is biased but this bet is based on logic. I will also be taking a large bet on Liverpool to finish in the top 4. However in order to do so, someone has to fall and for me there is so much value in that team being Chelsea. They are 2nd favourite to win the title next season, so you can appreciate how good the odds will be for them not to get into the top 4. I will shop around for a price for a while and keep you posted.
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Originally Posted by The Special One
