This will be my ongoing soccer soccer posted picks on the SBR Forum.
All plays will be to win 1 unit
Date: Sunday June 5, 2011
The Pick: Mexico -585 (5Dimes) to win vs. El Salvador for 1 Unit
Reason: I can already hear some of you thinking and muttering about this no-brainer pick.......am I right!? Before you throw darts at me, please hear me out. El Salvador when they play away from their home stadiums against some so called average to better clubs (better is Mexico) tend to have trouble scoring goals and quite often you will see a goose egg or maybe 1 goal put on the board. Mexico tends to play these Concacaf Gold Cup games very seriously and they play a nice defensive style that should make it even harder for El Salvador to score. Mexico will generally find a way to score 2 or 3 goals against these lesser teams and playing this game down around Arlington, Texas, Mexico should have a huge fan base........huge, huge, fan base.
I see a lot of Mexico -2 -120ish at the books and it makes a lot of sense as Mexico should be the big favorite....but make no mistake that El Salvador has but one chance to keep this close or possibly win and that is to play it as close to the vest, by packing it in front of their net, forming the old defensive wall and hoping the best they can. El Salvador would love a 0-0 tie or 1-1 tie in this match. In the end I see Mexico's overall talent pushing 1 or 2 across and winning 1-0, 2-0, 2-1.
Yes it does make more sense to lay -1 (if you can find it) with Mexico or the -2 so you can save that god awful high juice associated with these big favorites.............but on this one I'm going with the straight play to win, high juice and all.
NOTE: It will not be my practice to lay that high juice on a regular basis......its a bankroll killer if it becomes habit and the wrong games are selected.
Final: Mexico 5 El Salvador 0 for the Win......Wow.... the first half at 0-0 was how I thought the game would sort of play out .....but wow that 2nd half explosion by the better club made the final score a no doubter.........
A win is a win..........any ticket cashed is a good thing.........
I just realized that SBR gives out points (don't know what they are good for yet) for posting so I guess instead of adding future picks to this post I will create a new post for each pick so I can get some points.
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