[vitalyo]

I really think this odds are wrong . Thank me later fat boy .
Well the game is tomorrow . I believe by the game time the odds will take a huge dive . So if you wanna take them start shop around and don't wait till tomorrow.

May 25 14:30 German Bundesliga Play-offs

Bochum v Mgladbach . Bochum @2.76 (+176 )betfair (pinny +169)
Bochum v Mgladbach .Bochum -0 (PK) @ -105 BetFair (pinny -107)

Bochum is really hot

Bochum 34Games 49Goals in :35 allowed at home 11W2D4L 28Goals in :18 allowed

While
Mgladbach 34Games 48Goals in:65 allowed on the road 5W3D9L 22 Goals in :34 allowed

Comparing VfL Bochum's home games versus Bor Mnchglbh's away games (34 in total), there have been 59% Home Wins, 15% Draws and 26% Away Wins (20-5-9). A similar comparison for all VfL Bochum's games versus all Bor Mnchglbh's games (70 in total) produces the following: 54% Home Wins, 16% Draws and 30% Away Wins (38-11-21).


League Encounters

19th May 11 L Bor Mnchglbh v VfL Bochum 1 - 0
16th Jan 10 L Bor Mnchglbh v VfL Bochum 1 - 2
9th Aug 09 L VfL Bochum v Bor Mnchglbh 3 - 3
20th Mar 09 L Bor Mnchglbh v VfL Bochum 0 - 1
17th Oct 08 L VfL Bochum v Bor Mnchglbh 2 - 2
19th May 07 L Bor Mnchglbh v VfL Bochum 0 - 2
15th Dec 06 L VfL Bochum v Bor Mnchglbh 2 - 0
3rd Apr 05 L Bor Mnchglbh v VfL Bochum 2 - 2
26th Oct 04 L VfL Bochum v Bor Mnchglbh 3 - 0
14th Mar 04 L VfL Bochum v Bor Mnchglbh 1 - 0


Under/Over 2.5 : 5-5


WinDrawLoss - All : 6-3-1 SF :When Home Bochum 3-2-0

H2H only 1 loss for Bochum in 10 games .


My Probability
1X2 :
53% 26% 21%

So whatever formula you use it calls for Bochum win ,great value on home win ,
a pick em is the must bet at almost even odds , classic " Kelly coin flip " .


Another great value bet (today)is the game between
May 24 14:45 Rep of Ireland v Northern Ireland - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.34 (+134) betfair .

Cheers GL . I really like Bochum . My best bet of the week if not a month .
At your own risk .

[BIGDAY]

Anyone else agree?

[vitalyo]

Another great value bet (today)is the game between
May 24 14:45 Rep of Ireland v Northern Ireland - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.34 (+134) betfair .

FT Rep. of Ireland 5 - 0 Northern Ireland

[jjgold]

I never saw this

What happened?

[vitalyo]

I never saw this

What happened?

Nothing . The game is tomorrow
May 25 14:30 German Bundesliga Play-offs
Bochum v Mgladbach


GL.

[jjgold]

ok lets nail this

[gregm]

Good post, vitalyo. I have been reading up on this game and I am a little unsure. It does seem like Mönchengladbach just has to wait this game out and counter as they are in the drivers seat with a clean sheet at home and one goal their way.

I am going to tail vitalyo here, for a very small punt on the side, I like the under here better.

if anyone is interested here are a few more posts I found concerning the game.

BOHUM - BORUSSIA TO GO UNDER 2,5 AT ODDS 1,962

Relegation Play-Off 2nd leg

The first match was finished with home team victory (Borussia) 1-0 with last second goal from substitute de Camargo, which could be vital for this play-off battle.
This kind of goal gives lot of hope for winning team and lot of self confidence. The match in Mönchengladbach was almost equal and most fair result would be draw. Mönchengladbach have better squad and bigger experience, since they played against much stronger teams all season long and this will be big advantage for guests in this match.

Borussia will not need to hurry, they didn't receive goal at home so goal in guest could be crucial. They will slow down tempo for sure as stake is way to big, since winner will play in Bundesleague in season 2011/12.

Odds on under are great, even bigger than in first match so there is good value in betting on under

[gregm]

Two more posts I found with info on the game


Monchengladbach left it late to get the all important goal in the first leg, now they travel to Bochum, looking to seal the play-off.

As expected Bochum didn't do much in the first leg and now they take the game back home. They will be cursing themselves conceding the late goal but this game isn't over. Bochum will have to score and will look to play a more open style.

Although they need just one goal to send it to ET, Monchengladbach wont be sitting back to protect their slender lead, as it's neither a clever thing to do, nor are they that good at it. Knowing that away goals would do more damage to Bochum's play offs hopes and virtually end it, i think they will be there for the kill.

Given that Monchengladbach is still the better team of the two, with their experience, their talent and the edge they are holding, they should prevail once more and wrap things up to end their season

post 2


Bundesliga playoffs

Through the last-second goal from De Camargo 16th of this years Bundesliga Mönchengladbach managed an excellent result against the 2. Bundesligas third Vfl Bochum, a wonderful 1:0 without a goal against them.

Now its a perfect sitation for the guests of this match who can concentrate on conutering safe play, a type of playing football they used to play almost all second round and after Lucien Favre became coach doing it also very successfully - 26 points in second round.

Bochum is definitely the weaker of the two sides, the achievement of an 0:0 kept 90 miniutes in first match doesnt mean anything because Gladbach are themselves a countering side.

Bochum will try all they can, they will manage to motivate themselves and will not attack foolishly in the beginning, but the favourites to win this match are very clearly Gladbach.

Gladbach DNB @ 2.0 is for me another 10/10 affair.

[vitalyo]

Good post, vitalyo. I have been reading up on this game and I am a little unsure. It does seem like Mönchengladbach just has to wait this game out and counter as they are in the drivers seat with a clean sheet at home and one goal their way.

I am going to tail vitalyo here, for a very small punt on the side, I like the under here better.

if anyone is interested here are a few more posts I found concerning the game.

BOHUM - BORUSSIA TO GO UNDER 2,5 AT ODDS 1,962

Relegation Play-Off 2nd leg

The first match was finished with home team victory (Borussia) 1-0 with last second goal from substitute de Camargo, which could be vital for this play-off battle.
This kind of goal gives lot of hope for winning team and lot of self confidence. The match in Mönchengladbach was almost equal and most fair result would be draw. Mönchengladbach have better squad and bigger experience, since they played against much stronger teams all season long and this will be big advantage for guests in this match.

Borussia will not need to hurry, they didn't receive goal at home so goal in guest could be crucial. They will slow down tempo for sure as stake is way to big, since winner will play in Bundesleague in season 2011/12.

Odds on under are great, even bigger than in first match so there is good value in betting on under

Bochum is definitely the weaker of the two side

Good read . But i do not agree with a posters preview on Mönchengladbach to be a much better side ( makes no sense to me) ,Bochum in fact is ahead in every category you can meager .
Again odds are way off on the home team to win .
The biggest mistake punters make comparing league one team with league 2 .
Sociologically team from the league one is always better so there for they can't lose and that drives the odds in their favor .
Good example is Napoli in serie A . Came in from "B" and riding "serie A" like donkeys . It's very thin line between league 2 and 1 a specially in German league . If we would be talking about EPL then yes .
The main problem with an UNDER bet is ,can Mönchengladbach defend ?
Shits very big doubt here . They are allowing on average to be exact 2 goals per game and a home team scores almost 2 per game .
Taking under in this game is very very risky . Bochum is not gonna go away quietly so it's 90% guaranteed they will score and on the other hand score 1:1 doesn't do shit to them, if that's the case ( late in the game) they will be forced to open up so it's most likely we will see another goal to push the game over 2,5 goals .

Mönchengladbach have better squad and bigger experience, since they played against much stronger teams all season long

and they failed miserably.

most fair result would be draw

Given the particular situation the DRAW here is very unlikely. If the draw then it's most likely 2:2


In my opinion , who ever wrote the preview has very little or no knowledge of the game . Bochum in league 2 scored almost perfect recored , my guess they didn't do it for fun
My 2 cents .

PS. I am off to bed .Whenever i bet big i don't watch the games


Cheers GL.

[escou]

yeah you are just missing the most important part these are teams from different devisions played deifferent teams etc. It is not like Bochum played any good teams this year ...

[vitalyo]

yeah you are just missing the most important part these are teams from different devisions played deifferent teams etc. It is not like Bochum played any good teams this year ...

I have to disappoint you Bochum in 2010 played all of them (league1)

The biggest mistake punters make comparing league one team with league 2 .
Sociologically team from the league one is always better so there for they can't lose and that drives the odds in their favor .
Good example is Napoli in serie A . Came in from "B" and riding "serie A" like donkeys . It's very thin line between league 2 and 1 a specially in German league . If we would be talking about EPL then yes .

Just in case you missed this part .

GL.

[vitalyo]

I am not trying to sell this pick but the odds on Bochum to win just dropped by 20 cents! Around 09:00 they were @ +187 pinny , now thy dropped to +167 .
Someone is putting some serious lumber on them to win .

GL.

[jjgold]

when is game time?

[escou]

No that's great, I mean you sharing it with us I was just wondering if you thought of that, but obviously you did, so GL

[The Special One]

thats a good choice... GL

[sweepem]

Bochum-Gladbach has draw written all over it.

[sweepem]

when is game time?

Kickoff is in 30 minutes.

[The Special One]

Bochum-Gladbach has draw written all over it.

easily, so take PK...

another good pick is Scotland ML

[yogohama]

Bochum ML for me!

[gregm]

Good read . But i do not agree with a posters preview on Mönchengladbach to be a much better side ( makes no sense to me) ,Bochum in fact is ahead in every category you can meager .
Again odds are way off on the home team to win .
The biggest mistake punters make comparing league one team with league 2 .
Sociologically team from the league one is always better so there for they can't lose and that drives the odds in their favor .
Good example is Napoli in serie A . Came in from "B" and riding "serie A" like donkeys . It's very thin line between league 2 and 1 a specially in German league . If we would be talking about EPL then yes .
The main problem with an UNDER bet is ,can Mönchengladbach defend ?
Shits very big doubt here . They are allowing on average to be exact 2 goals per game and a home team scores almost 2 per game .
Taking under in this game is very very risky . Bochum is not gonna go away quietly so it's 90% guaranteed they will score and on the other hand score 1:1 doesn't do shit to them, if that's the case ( late in the game) they will be forced to open up so it's most likely we will see another goal to push the game over 2,5 goals .

and they failed miserably.

Given the particular situation the DRAW here is very unlikely. If the draw then it's most likely 2:2


In my opinion , who ever wrote the preview has very little or no knowledge of the game . Bochum in league 2 scored almost perfect recored , my guess they didn't do it for fun
My 2 cents .

PS. I am off to bed .Whenever i bet big i don't watch the games


Cheers GL.

Good stuff vitalyo, may hedge under some here and play bochum ML. Win or lose, great info!

cheers

[sweepem]

easily, so take PK...

another good pick is Scotland ML

Scotland sounds like a solid pick.

Scotland: McGregor, Whittaker, G Caldwell, Berra, Crainey, Naismith, Brown, Adam, Morrison, McCormack, Miller.

Wales: Myhill, Eardley,Taylor,Jones,Morgan,Blake,Dorman ,King,Vokes,Earnshaw(c),Easter

[The Special One]

nice lineups... Adam leads the way

[VegasInsider]

I'm on the Under here as well.

[DogLover]

I have:

Borussia Mönchengladbach pk (+175)
Borussia Mönchengladbach ML (+235)
Borussia Mönchengladbach / Bochum Over 2 (-160)

[yogohama]

1:0 for Bochum!

[sweepem]

Bochum-Gladbach has draw written all over it.

lol too bad i didn't play it but i threw 50 € on the Scotland game.

[hitman09]

Final result is a Draw. what a day, an own goal and a tie goal. Scotland had a great comback game.

[jjgold]

damn draws

Anyone watch game?

[vitalyo]

gregm good call on under . Congrats

GL.

[gregm]

It was a good call on bochum, should have won. Thats why its nice to have -pk or even asian lines at times. Thanks for the write up, we need more of that on here.

cheers