[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes (for bantamweight title)
Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara France (for interim flyweight title)
Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith

ABC 8:00 pm ET
Alex Morono vs Mattew Swmelsberger
Rafael Alves vs. Drew Dober
Hamdy abdelwahab vs Don'tale Mayers
Rafa Garcia vs. Drakkar Klose

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Adam Fugitt vs. Michael Morales
Joselyne edwards vs Ji Yeon Kim
Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ihor Potieria
Orion Cosce vs. Blood Diamond

[GunShard]

Kai Kara France trains at the same training camp as Volkanovski and Adesanya.
Good chance France brings a 3rd belt to their training camp.

[Brandt Moat]

I like his chances. Should be a battle of wills. Two tough guys! I was on Diego Ferreira vs Klose. It got cancelled last week. I go to the PA line to put bets in every couple weeks. Haven't seen why it was cancelled. Had him @ -160 for 2 units. If a leg is broke or knee is torn out from a kick, I got that guy. I lost a bunch on Conor when his leg turned to rubber. Aspinall was only $130. I have a 3 leg parlay with Pavlovich,Perez and Alves @ +1280 for a 10 Buck Chuck. So I'm not invested much. GL

[Brandt Moat]

Diego got hurt in training. He has been on a skid as of late, be it to tough competition. Probably saved me money.

[agendaman]

so nunes wins and sets up a big gate rubber match.

[Brandt Moat]

I'm cruising to PA line 2mrw. I will be bored stiff with next to no action on the fights Sat. Got a few in mind haven't settled on em for sure. Nugumereanu in the pre pre-lims. I'm on him with some confidence for 2 units. He was + money now he is -105 @ Rivers. Morono has hit the wall. Semelsberger should have a distinct size and strength advantage. Going 1 unit Semelsberger @ -155.GL

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelim write ups -





170 lbs.: Michael Morales vs. Adam Fugitt

Ecuador’s Michael Morales (13-0) toppled the favored Nikolay Veretennikov on Contender Series to secure a UFC contract. He was even more successful in his Octagon debut, which saw him knockout Trevin Giles late in the first round.
That victory marked his tenth by (technical) knockout and eleventh stoppage overall.
Adam Fugitt (8-2) — whose only professional losses came to future Contender Series hopefuls Austin Vanderford and Kailan Hill — scored three consecutive finishes before assorted issues forced a two-year layoff. He returned in a big way in Feb. 2022, smashing massive favorite Solomon Renfro in less than one minute.
He replaces Ramiz Brahimaj on little more than one week’s notice.
With all due respect to Fugitt, he’s far less of a threat to Morales than Giles was. Fugitt’s best weapons are his top control and ground-and-pound, neither of which figure to be much of a factor against a more credentialed wrestler. That means he has to beat Morales on the feet, and though he’s adept with his kicks, his defensive issues and limited boxing make it a matter of time before Morales finds his chin.
There have been wilder upsets, but between his inability to use his strengths and the sheer firepower coming back his way, Fugitt’s odds are slim. In short, Morales clips him inside the first five minutes.
Prediction: Morales via first round technical knockout
Related
UFC 277 ‘Prelims’ Set To Air Live On ABC

135 lbs.: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Joselyne Edwards

Ji Yeon Kim (9-5-2) battled her way to a 3-2 UFC start, highlighted by an upset decision over Justine Kish and a two-round beatdown of Nadia Kassem. “Fire Fist” now finds herself in the midst of a three-fight skid, though her most recent defeat to Prsicila Cachoeira was unquestionably a robbery.
She is the shorter of the two but sports a two-inch reach advantage,
Joselyne Edwards (11-4) worked her way to a 2018 LFA title shot against future UFC competitor Sarah Alpar, who narrowly edged out “La Pantera” over the course of five rounds She would ultimately make her own journey to the Octagon two years later, and she now sits at 2-2 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion.
She replaces Mariya Agapova on short notice.
This has “controversial decision” written all over it. Indeed, a match up between high-output strikers with a history of nail-biters is just asking for trouble.
Maybe it’s just a desire for karma after watching her get robbed last time out, but I’m leaning toward Kim. She’s held her own against quality strikers like Alexa Grasso in the past, can exceed Edwards’ volume, and sits down on her punches enough to offset Edwards’ flurries in the eyes of the judges. In the end, heavier blows edge things out for “Fire Fist.”
Prediction: Kim via split decision
Related
What A Waste! Nunes Details ‘Horrible’ Camp For First Pena Fight

205 lbs.: Nick Negumereanu vs. Ihor Potieria

Nick Negumereanu (12-1) lost his undefeated record in his UFC debut, which saw Saparbeg Safarov out-work and out-wrestle him to a unanimous decision win. A subsequent two-year stint on the sidelines appears to have worked out for him, racking up three consecutive victories.
“Nicu” will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage despite being three inches shorter than “Duelist.”
Ukraine’s Ihor Potieira (20-2) rode a 16-fight win streak into Contender Series, where he squared off with unbeaten Lukasz Sudolski. Though Potieria entered as the underdog, a heavy flurry secured both a first-round knockout and a UFC contract.
He’s won 16 professional fights via stoppage, including nine by knockout.
It’s clear that Negumereanu’s current run is better on paper than in reality. His recent win over Kennedy Nzechukwu was a legitimate robbery, and neither Aleksa Camur nor Ike Villanueva have accomplished much in the Octagon.
His face-first approach might just work out here, though. Potieria’s tendency to jump into range with big, wide flurries should give Negumereanu plenty of opportunities to land his haymakers and get in on the Ukrainian’s hips for takedowns. Plus, even if he can’t wrangle Potieria to the mat, the latter’s been controlled against the cage before. Potieria will land the bigger strikes, but expect Negumereanu to zombie-walk his way to another narrow decision.
Prediction: Negumereanu via split decision
Related
UFC 277 Poster Drops For ‘Pena Vs Nunes 2’

170 lbs.: Orion Cosce vs. Mike Mathetha

Orion Cosce (7-1) joined brother Louis in the Octagon thanks to a buzzer-beater finish of the heavily-favored Matt Dixon on Contender Series. He enjoyed a good first round in his UFC debut against Phil Rowe, but ultimately succumbed to punches late in the second.
All of his pro wins have come inside the distance, six of them via strikes.
Mike Mathetha (3-1) — another City Kickboxing export — was originally slated to debut against Cosce in Feb. 2022 before “Galaxy” withdrew because of an injury. In stepped Jeremiah Wells, who took down “Blood Diamond” in the opening seconds and ultimately drew a tap via rear-naked choke.
He’ll enjoy a five-inch reach advantage.
Having just watched Mathetha lose to a physically imposing slugger with a solid wrestling game, you’ll forgive me for not liking his chances against a second one. Though Cosce lacks Wells’ Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess, there doesn’t appear to be much stopping him from mauling Mathetha in similar fashion. Mathetha has the edge on the feet, sure, but the threat of Cosce’s takedowns should go a long way towards neutralizing the former’s kicks.
Unless Mathetha can catch Cosce with something nasty in the opening minutes, “Galaxy’s” going to squeeze the life out of him on top and against the fence. So long as Cosce’s still got the confidence to go bulldozer mode, he takes out Mathetha with ground-and-pound inside the first round.
Prediction: Cosce via first round technical knockout




170 lbs.: Alex Morono vs. Matthew Semelsberger

Alex Morono (21-7) started his UFC career 3-2 (1 NC), one of those wins a controversial one over Kyle Noke and the “No Contest” an overturned knockout loss to Niko Price. He has since found his footing in a big way, winning seven of his next nine and putting together an ongoing three-fight win streak.
“The Great White” gives up two inches of height and three inches of reach to “Semi the Jedi.”
Matthew Semelsberger (10-3) — who once sat at 3-2 as a professional — won five straight before falling short against Khaos Williams. He bounced back with a 15-second wipeout of Martin Sano, then edged out unbeaten A.J. Fletcher in March 2022.
He’s knocked out six professional foes and submitted one other.
Morono’s skills really sneak up on you. Brawling stand up and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu game hampered by poor wrestling do not a contender make, but he just keeps making it work against a wide variety of opponents.
I don’t think it works here, though.
Semelsberger’s boxing is too sharp and his power too potent for Morono to out-slug him on the feet, and his defensive grappling held up nicely against the very determined Fletcher. Though Morono’s always game, it’s hard not to picture Semelsberger timing one of “The Great White’s” big swings and coming back with a fight-ending straight right down the pipe. In short, a developing slugfest ends abruptly via one-hitter quitter.
Prediction: Semelsberger via first round knockout
Related
Video: Watch Countdown To UFC 277 ‘Pena vs. Nunes 2’

155 lbs.: Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves

The 6-1 Octagon run for Drew Dober (24-11), which featured three post-fight bonuses, gave way to consecutive losses to Islam Makhachev and Brad Riddell. Nine months after the latter defeat, he survived a flying knee to knockout Terrance McKinney and re-enter the win column.
His professional finishes are split 9/8 between submissions and knockouts.
Rafael Alves (20-10) impressed on Contender Series with a second round guillotine finish and looked poised to shock Damir Ismagulov after an early knockdown in his debut, but couldn’t maintain the momentum. “The Turn” capitalized quite a bit better on his next opportunity, choking out Marc Diakiese 108 seconds into their Nov. 2021 fight.
He faces a two-inch reach disadvantage.
Fighting Alves is like walking through a minefield. He doesn’t have the fundamentals to set up his wild power strikes or the wrestling to bring his lethal submissions to bear, but as Diakiese learned, all he needs is one slip-up to end the night in an instant.
Unfortunately for him, Dober’s up to the task of threading the needle. He’s by far the superior striking technician and is inordinately difficult to finish. Indeed, Alves’ opportunities will be few and far between, and he’ll have a mighty hard time actually capitalizing on them. In the end, Dober stays patient and out-boxes Alves to a mid-round stoppage.
Prediction: Dober via second round technical knockout
Related
UFC 277 ‘Prelims’ Set To Air Live On ABC

265 lbs.: Don’Tale Mayes vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

Two years after falling to Allen Crowder on Contender Series, Don’Tale Mayes (9-4) secured a spot in the Octagon by knocking out Ricardo Prasel in his second appearance on the program. He proceeded to lose his first two UFC bouts to Ciryl Gane and Rodrigo Nascimento, but has since evened up his record in the promotion with wins over Roque Martinez and Josh Parisian.
“Lord Kong” stands four inches taller than Hamdy Abdelwahab (5-0) and boasts an eight-inch reach advantage.
Abdelwahab represented his native Egypt in Greco-Roman wrestling at the 2016 Olympics, ultimately bowing out in the Round of 16. His pro MMA career has seen him stop all five opponents via (technical) knockout, the most recent of them in June 2022.
He steps in for Justin Tafa on less than two weeks’ notice.
Credentialed and physically impressive though he may be, Abdelwahab remains a work in progress. His stand up is limited, his professional competition weak, and his top game is well behind his wrestling. I’m not saying he can’t beat Mayes, whose had all sorts of issues with grapplers in the past, but I really don’t see him doing so outside of a lengthy lay-and-pray session.
Mayes is just too seasoned and Abdelwahab too green at this point. If they met at their hypothetical peaks, Abdelwahab would run him over, but all that matters is where they are here and now. When the dust settles, “Lord Kong” will put away his flagging foe sometime in the third frame.
Prediction: Mayes via third round technical knockout
Related
UFC 277 Poster Drops For ‘Pena Vs Nunes 2’

155 lbs.: Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia

The three-fight win streak for Drakkar Klose (12-2-1) came to an end in an absolute war with Beneil Dariush, who felled Klose with a vicious overhand left in the second round. A two-year layoff followed, which Klose ended with an absolute mauling of Brandon Jenkins in April 2022.
He sports two inches of height and reach on Rafa Garcia (14-2).
“Gifted” entered the Octagon undefeated and with the Combate Lightweight title around his waist, only to drop consecutive decisions to Nasrat Haqparast and Chris Gruetzemacher. He proceeded to edge out Contender Series graduate, Natan Levy, to get on the scoreboard, then submitted Jesse Ronson five months later.
He steps in for Diego Ferreira on short notice.
Garcia is not to be underestimated here. Strong takedown artists have given Klose plenty of issues in the past, and “Gifted” is gritty enough to hold his own on the feet as well. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him grind his way to an upset victory.
It would, however, be more surprising than Klose’s aggression and striking variety carrying the day. Plus, Klose was already preparing for a much more dangerous grappler and striker in Ferreira, so he’s not likely to be caught unawares here. In short, he sprawls-and-brawls to victory.
Prediction: Klose via unanimous decision

[Allure]

Watching UFC Embedded i have to say Nunes looks mich different than last time. Last time around she had the wine drinking lesbian vibe now she is in great shape. She will finish Peña, at the very least bet the house on this fight NOT going the distance. Odds will be pretty shitty though.

After losing to Nunes, I offer Peña to come visit me so I can heal all her wounds.

[hankcream]

I'm buying this lame ass PPV because I want to see the 1st 4 fights on the main card and I don't think Dana should be giving PPV points to a Women's main event- they should have their own league and see how many PPV buys they get.

Early bets:
$4.2k Moreno -210
$100 parlay Smith & Lewis +$1067 - just because I don't like these low intelligence Russian goons that can't speak English

[Allure]

I don't like these low intelligence Russian goons that can't speak English

How many languages does the average American speak?

[Brandt Moat]

So, if ya don't speak a few languages, you are not that smart? Got it.

[Brandt Moat]

Bill Gates, can't stand him! Speaks English only. Bet he is a dumb azz!

[JIBBBY]

These Russian wrestlers are slowly taking over the sport whether they can speak English or not. Get use to it.

Dana better hire a translator because most in their corners trying to translate after the fights can't speak very good English either.

[Allure]

Anthony Smith looked AWFUL during weigh ins. I'm not saying bet on Ankalaev, although you should, but definitely at least DON'T bet on Smith. It'll be huge surprise if this goes the distance.

[hankcream]

Early card bets:
$400 Blood Diamond +160
$81 Rafa Garcia +185
$600 parlay Mayes & Morales -123

[JC2008]

Early card bets:
$400 Blood Diamond +160
$81 Rafa Garcia +185
$600 parlay Mayes & Morales -123

What makes you so confident in Blood Diamond?

[JIBBBY]

Anthony Smith looked AWFUL during weigh ins. I'm not saying bet on Ankalaev, although you should, but definitely at least DON'T bet on Smith. It'll be huge surprise if this goes the distance.

I'm not sold on Anthony Smith anymore. He's peaked already and got his ass beat to many times recently for my liking. A good Journeyman at best now IMO. He has won 3 fights in a row though but I'm not giving him much of a chance in this one.

I think you gotta go with 16-1 Magomed when looking over the match up. This Russian is pretty damn tough. The odds are too jacked though. This fight might be a pass for me.

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Magomed-Ankalaev-170785

[JC2008]

Everyone needs to remember this card is in Dallas so we're due for some f ucked up judging. Aggression and going for it also seems to be favoured in Texas.

[Allure]

I'm not sold on Anthony Smith anymore. He's peaked already and got his ass beat to many times recently for my liking. A good Journeyman at best now IMO. He has won 3 fights in a row though but I'm not giving him much of a chance in this one.

I think you gotta go with 16-1 Magomed when looking over the match up. This Russian is pretty damn tough. The odds are too jacked though. This fight might be a pass for me.

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Magomed-Ankalaev-170785

My bookie offers me +100 that the fight won't go the distance. Ankalaev should beat him pretty easily under normal circumstances, in addition Smith looks to have had a terrible weight cut. He almost didn't make weight and his body is pretty much jello at this point.

I think Ankalaev will want to make a statement to get his name into the contender talk and getting +100 for that, I'll take that any day of the week.

[hankcream]

What makes you so confident in Blood Diamond?

It's more of a fade of Cosce, but Blood Diamond has had over 100 professional kickboxing fights, I know it's not MMA but it's a lot more experience than Cosce and he's been Izzy's main training partner for years. Plus Cosce missed weight and looked like shit and didn't even trained for the fight. If I could find a line on Blood Diamond by headkick KO I would play that as well.

[JIBBBY]

My bookie offers me +100 that the fight won't go the distance. Ankalaev should beat him pretty easily under normal circumstances, in addition Smith looks to have had a terrible weight cut. He almost didn't make weight and his body is pretty much jello at this point.

I think Ankalaev will want to make a statement to get his name into the contender talk and getting +100 for that, I'll take that any day of the week.

Smith is damn durable and can take a beating. Could go the distance. Half of Magomed's fights go the distance also. I like the decision prop myself more. Good luck though.

https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-277

[Allure]

Smith is damn durable and can take a beating. Could go the distance. Half of Magomed's fights go the distance also. I like the decision prop myself more. Good luck though.

https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-277

Agreed. 50% banking on Ankalaev needing an impressive win to be in contender talks and 50% Smith's terrible form based on what I saw at weigh ins. Let's see of course it could also turn into yet another boring Ankalaev decision.

[JIBBBY]

No dice with the Blood Diamond. That boy needs to go back to wrestling school just like most striking based fighters do in the UFC.

[Demonata]

This card already better than last card!!! That last fight was awesome!

[JIBBBY]

This card already better than last card!!! That last fight was awesome!

True that Dem!

Let's hope for some more good fights going forward!.....

[Demonata]

True that Dem!

Let's hope for some more good fights going forward!.....

Any bets you like on this card man?

[Merlin21]

I had Morales by KO/TKO here but Herb has earned the knickname Herb Premature Dean.... He was still defending man, let it go!!!

[JIBBBY]

That KO prop was money I was worried for a bit it might go decision. That 0 didn't go.. Whew..

[JIBBBY]

Any bets you like on this card man?

I don't REALLY like any but I'm betting as it goes.. Hit and miss so far. Trying Rafa Garcia straight next as the dog for small.

Giving the Black Beast a shot as the dog also as he's facing a striker. He's always game against a striker.

[JIBBBY]

Time to channel in on ABC for the next prelims..

[Merlin21]

Sprinkling some on Garcia by Sub here at +750

[JIBBBY]

3rd round should decide this fight. I got 1-1

[JIBBBY]

Got Klose 29-28 but hoping for a robbery here ..

[mackave]

Mayes LOL, fukks this guy up and doesnt continue, just plays it slow, hes about to lose now... unreal

[freelee]

Mayes LOL, fukks this guy up and doesnt continue, just plays it slow, hes about to lose now... unreal

How on earth did anybody score the 3rd round for Mayes?