[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett
Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means
Joaquin Buckley vs. Albert Duraev
Damir Ismagulov vs. Guram Kutateladze
Julian Marquez vs. Gregory Rodrigues

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Kyle Daukaus vs. Roman Dolidze
Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Natalia Silva
Court McGee vs. Jeremiah Wells
Tony Kelley vs. Adrian Yanez
Danny Chavez vs. Ricardo Ramos
Gloria de Paula vs. Maria Oliveira
Cody Stamann vs. Eddie Wineland

[hankcream]

Finally a decent Fight night card. This thing has a lot more high quality fights than the last few pay per views.

[Allure]

At first glance

Kattar & Holland parlay
Fading Cowboy
Wells ML
Daukaus via submission

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -






115 lbs.: Maria Oliveira vs. Gloria de Paula

Between Contenders Series and her actual debut, Maria Oliveira (12-5) has made a pair of trips to UFC’s Octagon, but she’s yet to have her hand raised. The Brazilian “Spider Girl” is fairly tall and rangy for the division, a Muay Thai striker who does her best work at distance. Still, the 24-year-old is a bit green on the canvas, and she can get a bit flat-footed even in her preferred style of fighting.
Fortunately, Gloria de Paula (6-4) is not much of a wrestler herself. Another fighter who started in Muay Thai, Oliveira began her UFC career with a pair of defeats before righting the ship opposite Diana Belbita. So far, she’s finished half of her career victories via knockout.
Okay, so neither woman is lighting the world on fire to start the promotional careers. They’re both still reasonably young in the game, so further development from each should be expected. Unfortunately, Oliveira has yet to really prove herself UFC level. Her ground game is a major liability, and frankly, her striking doesn’t look quite as sharp as de Paula’s own Muay Thai. “Glorinha” is more accurate, throws more volume and might even be the heavier hitter.
Likely, de Paula wins the kickboxing exchanges and maybe even spends some time in top control en route to her first UFC win streak.
Prediction: de Paula via decision
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135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland vs. Cody Stamann

Times have been tough for Eddie Wineland (24-15), who’s doing his best to survive UFC’s most competitive weight class at the age of 37. Wineland still has snap on his punches and good skill, but it’s not easy to keep up with faster, younger opposition, which explains the reason the former World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) champ has lost four of his last five bouts.
More concerning, his last two defeats came via knockout.
Cody Stamann (19-5-1) has been struggling, too. Unlike Wineland, however, his recent trio of losses came to darn tough competition like Jimmie Rivera and Said Nurmagomedov. Still, he’s fallen a long way from the Top 10, and it’s easy to consider this a must-win fight for the Karate striker.
I consider myself a Wineland fan, and I’d love to see him buck the odds and do well here, but this style match up is all wrong for him. Even at his peak, Wineland struggled with fleet-footed opponents who could outmaneuver him (like Joseph Benavidez in 2011).
Stamann has genuinely excellent footwork. He’s not the most deadly striker, but he can land his side kicks at distance, dance away and convince foes to walk into shots like few others. In addition, Stamann is a top-notch wrestler, and it only gets more difficult with age to win a grueling war of attrition.
The most likely outcome here is clear: Stamann frustrates Wineland with movement before racking up top control for a clear-cut decision win.
Prediction: Stamann via decision
Related
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185 lbs.: Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn

Phil Hawes (11-3) is a serious physical specimen at Middleweight. “Megatron” is brutally fast and majorly strong, which are major reasons behind his ability to rack up nine finishes in 11 wins. A standout wrestler with slick striking, so far durability has been the only thing holding Hawes back from breaking into the Top 15.
Deron Winn (7-2) rebounded well last time out, saving his job by decisioning Antonio Arroyo. A longtime training partner of Daniel Cormier, Winn is a 5’6” scrapper who relies on his double-leg and overhand to make up for his usual range disadvantage.
I’ll confess that I am not at all sold on Winn as a successful UFC-level Middleweight. Each and every fight, he faces major physical disadvantages. Thus far, he’s only been able to defeat opponents when he holds massive wrestling advantages, and that doesn’t at all sound like Hawes. It’s highly unlikely that Winn easily drags the superior athlete and bigger man to the canvas, and the attempts to do so will likely be exhausting.
Really, Winn’s best chance to win here is that overhand right. He does hit hard and put together combinations well, and Hawes’ chin has been cracked on a few occasions. If he commits fully to the kickboxing, he has a decent chance at catching his opponent.
Instead, expect Winn to try to wrestle, get tired, then get clipped.
Prediction: Phil Hawes via knockout
Related
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185 lbs.: Roman Dolidze vs. Kyle Daukaus

Roman Dolidze (9-1) is a pretty bizarre fighter. He’s got some pretty serious credentials on the mat, having won Abu Dhabi Combat Club (ADCC)’s European trials and competed in the official tournament. However, he didn’t get into mixed martial arts (MMA) until later in life, and as a result, his overall game is a bit disjointed.
He’s still a big, strong man for 185 pounds.
Kyle Daukaus (11-2) has yet to put together a win streak inside the Octagon, but he’s shown a pretty solid set of skills. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt really thrives in transition, and he does a nice job of forcing opponents into continued wrestling exchanges.
Dolidze’s last couple fights have been pretty miserable viewing experiences, but this should be much more fun. Both of these men like to grapple and transition, so there should be lots of fun movement and submission attempts on the canvas. It’s unclear which man is the better wrestler or better jiu-jitsu player — we’ll find out Saturday.
What is clear is that Daukaus is the far more effective offensive fighter. Daukaus is far more active on the feet, and despite having no knockout wins on his record (unlike Dolidze), he’s actually the more damage-focused man. As the grappling war of attrition wages on, expect Daukaus punch and elbow connections to start shifting the momentum to his corner.
Prediction: Daukaus via decision




135 lbs.: Adrian Yanez vs. Tony Kelley

This is a rather strange bit of matchmaking.
Undefeated (4-0) inside the Octagon, Adrian Yanez (15-3) has picked up a trio of knockout wins and four performance bonuses in his young UFC career. The 28-year-old Texan is one of the most promising Contenders Series signees, a very slick and composed kickboxer with real knockout power. When a young fighter is brought in by the champion to emulate Petr Yan and help him prepare for a title fight, you know his potential is sky high.
After picking up a “Fight of the Night” bonus in defeat opposite Kai Kamaka, Tony Kelley (8-2) dropped to Bantamweight and picked up a pair of victories. Lately, the Muay Thai striker has been making headlines for the wrong reasons, like racist corner comments and a unique insistence on driving cross country for his fights to avoid mask regulations.
UFC rarely brings up prospects slowly, but that seems to be the case here. Yanez just went to war with Davey Grant and came out ahead, scoring the best win of his career and proving himself the real deal in the process. Grant is more accomplished, and more important, seems simply better than Kelley, so this is definitely a step back in competition for Yanez.
Kelley’s dangerous, but he’s precisely the type of wild striker that will walk into Yanez’s counter shots. Unless he can really destroy the boxer’s lead leg early, it’s going to be a rough night for “Prime Time.”
Prediction: Yanez via knockout
Related
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125 lbs.: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Natalie Silva

I don’t know that expectations were particularly high surrounding Jasmine Jasudavicious (7-1) when she was signed to the roster, but the Niagara Top Team-trained talent has done quite well. Perfect (2-0) inside the Octagon, Jasudavicius has showed a very solid understanding of wrestling and top pressure that has frustrated her opponents.
She’ll face a fellow grappler in Natalie Cristina Silva (12-5-1), who’s making her UFC debut. Silva fills a rare strategic role that only really continues to exist in women’s MMA: armbar specialist! That specific joint lock accounts for four of the victories on her current six-fight win streak.
There are two potential outcomes here. By all rights, Jasudaviciushas showed the superior wrestling skills necessary to drag her foe down, and her control thus far on the mat has been technical and effective. That should be enough to secure victory, as hunting for armbars from bottom position is very rarely a successful strategy at the UFC level, but ... it does happen. It especially does happen in women’s MMA fighters on undercards.
Still, I am not the type to predict lightning to strike. Jasudavicius has the far more likely path to victory, and hopefully, her team has armbar defense and avoidance strategies well drilled into her brain after her recent fight camp.
Prediction Jasudavicius via decision
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170 lbs.: Court McGee vs. Jeremiah Wells

There’s nothing I respect more than a fighter like Court McGee (21-10). “The Crusher” was never going to ascend UFC’s ranks as champion, but he’s absolutely maximized what physical gifts he does have thanks to his work ethic and hard-nosed fighting style. McGee throws punches-in-bunches, distracting his opponent until the takedown opens up.
If it doesn’t, McGee will scrap to the final bell.
Jeremiah Wells (10-2-1) is the much, much more athletic man in this match up. The 35-year-old CFFC veteran is a bit of a wild man, happy to lunge after his opponent with huge punches and chase the knockout. Fortunately, he backs up that aggression with solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
This is simultaneously a perfect fight for McGee, and one that could easily backfire. Stylistically, Wells’ wildness is likely to land him in bottom position versus the underrated wrestler. Based on Wells’ fighting style, age and musculature, the odds of him being able to keep up with McGee in the latter half of this contest are simply not great.
Everything lines up for a classic grindy McGee decision.
The problem, however, is that Wells does hit damn hard, and McGee is 37 years old himself. McGee is still durable and tough, but he’s a touch older now, and his knees are wobbled more often by punches than they once were. It is distinctly possible that Wells comes out of the gate swinging and floors McGee, either finishing or building a huge early lead.
As mentioned in the above prediction, however, I am an analyst who will almost always side with consistency over flash-in-the-pan dynamism. Sometimes it pays off, other times it bites me, but to thine own self be true.
Prediction: McGee via decision
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145 lbs.: Ricardo Ramos vs. Danny Chavez

Ricardo Ramos (15-4) is a funky fighter. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has a really well-rounded skill set. He can strike, wrestle and submit quite well. However, he also greatly enjoys high risk techniques like jumping kicks and spinning elbows, and sometimes, he can wonder a little too far in that direction to his own detriment.
Since returning to Featherweight, Ramos has evenly split four bouts.
Florida’s Danny Chavez (11-4-1) is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt himself, possessing some knockout power in his hands. His UFC results thus far have been inconsistent (1-1-1), but “The Colombian Warrior” is looking to change that in his eleventh year as a professional.
Ramos does take chances and make some iffy calls in the cage, but he’s still gone toe-to-toe with pretty elite talent like Zubaira Tukhugov and Said Nurmagomedov at just 26 years of age. He’s getting better, too, as Ramos showed some of his best work yet in the recent defeat to Tukhugov.
In this match up, he’s going to be the far more athletic man, and he’ll have a size advantage to boot. That’s going to make Chavez’s usual takedown-heavy strategy difficult, and on the feet, Ramos is simply the better man.
He returns to the win column in style.
Prediction: Ramos via knockout

[JIBBBY]

Main card -

Welterweight: Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means

Best Win for Holland? Ronaldo Souza For Means? Thiago Alves
Current Streak: Holland returned to the win column last time out, while Means has won three in a row
X-Factor: Means has been in a lot of wars
How these two match up: A pair of rangy kickboxers are going to try to put each other in the dirt.
Holland’s rise and fall at 185 pounds is well-documented, but he seems primed for success as a Welterweight. Physically, he looks great at his new weight class, long and powerful. Regardless of division, Holland’s ability to fire straight shots down the middle and do major damage is a threat, and his wrestling seems to have come a long way as well.
Means is a crafty veteran. He’s been fighting for well over a decade, developing all sorts of nasty kickboxing tricks from the Southpaw stance. “The Dirty Bird” excels at distance and in the clinch, and he has the range to largely match Holland’s build.
This is going to be awesome. Means is the more technical man, but it’s hard to for me to see those skills alone overcoming Holland’s superior speed and power. If the two fight a kickboxing match, it seems likely that Means does quite well ... until suddenly Holland lands something clean, and he’s on the floor.
Could Means switch it up and wrestle? It might be worth an attempt for the resulting clinch elbow exchanges alone, but realistically, he’s not the level of wrestler that’s usually required to hold Holland down.
Most likely, Holland continues his Welterweight climb.
Prediction: Holland via knockout
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---

Middleweight: Joaquin Buckley vs. Albert Duraev

Best Win for Buckley? Impa Kasanganay For Duraev? Roman Kopylov
Current Streak: Buckley has won two in a row, while Duraev won his UFC debut last October
X-Factor: Buckley has never faced a true wrestling specialist
How these two match up: What we’ve got here is a clear-cut case of striker vs. wrestler.
Maybe that’s underselling Buckley a bit? The man known for his insane jumping spin kick knockout did actually do a bit of wrestling last time out, putting the pace on Abdul Razak Alhassan to earn a close decision. Still, in this match up at least, it’s clear where each man would like to compete. Russia’s “Machete” has solid kickboxing, but he’s far more at home mauling his opponents from top position.
While I’m not completely ruling out a Buckley victory — he’s athletic and hits hard, there’s always a chance — this reads like a pretty terrible match up for him. I’ll be honest: on the whole, I don’t really think Buckley should be at 185 pounds. He’s mostly been able to get away with being 5’8” against bigger men for this long, but this is the type of style match up that punishes being the smaller man.
Getting stuck under a bigger, stronger fighter is an absolutely heinous experience. Buckley is about to find out the hard way that Duraev is a true Middleweight, and that his own best wins likely await him at 170 pounds.
Prediction: Duraev via submission
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---

Lightweight: Damir Ismagulov vs. Guram Kutateladze

Best Win for Ismagulov? Joel Alvarez For Kutateladze? Mateusz Gamrot
Current Streak: Ismagulov has quietly won four in a row inside the Octagon, while Kutateladze’s sole UFC performance was a major upset win
X-Factor: Kutateladze hasn’t fought in 20 months
How these two match up: You won’t find a more underrated match up at 155 pounds.
Ismagulov has defeated fighters like Alvarez and Thiago Moises, yet relatively few fight fans know his name. That’s a real shame, because the 31-year-old Russian is a master of sports in hand-to-hand combat. Inside the cage, that means he’s not the stereotypical Sambo fighter: he can kickboxer and wrestle in equally excellent fashion.
Kutateladze has the misfortune of facing Gamrot — who main events next week! — in a short-notice UFC debut ... and he f—king won. That’s incredible, but his momentum was stalled by inactivity afterward. Regardless, Kutateladze showed off excellent defensive wrestling, powerful kickboxing and great overall athleticism in that victory.
This is going to be an excellent, high-level fight. I wish I could say with true confidence who’s going to win, but it’s a difficult one to read. Both men have shown plus skills in most areas, but the overall amount of UFC level experience is limited, especially for Kutateladze. But then, his victory over Gamrot is the best win between them.
Ultimately, I think Ismagulov is well-rounded enough to really keep Kutateladze guessing. If the two are kickboxing fairly evenly, a single takedown can be the deciding factor, and Ismagulov is the more likely man to drag his foe to the canvas.
Prediction: Ismagulov via decision
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---

Middleweight: Julian Marquez vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Best Win for Marquez? Darren Stewart For Rodrigues? Jun Yong Park
Current Streak: Marquez has won two in a row, while Rodrigues recently suffered his first UFC loss
X-Factor: Marquez is pretty great at breaking opponents late with pressure
How these two match up: Barring an early knockout, this will be a brawl.
Marquez is a big Middleweight, and he knows how to use that physicality to his advantage. He fights a wearing style, pressuring his opponents constantly with heavy punches and combinations. He’s not a technician nor unhittable, but he stays in his foes faces until they break or something big lands.
A former Light Heavyweight who’s equally comfortable in bloody brawls, “Robocop” is likely to welcome the style of fight that Marquez forces. He’s a knockout artist, a heavy-handed former LFA champ who can keep his cool in wars of attrition.
Rodrigues is just four fights into his UFC career, but I’ve been consistently impressed with what Rodrigues brings to the table. He’s tough and durable, technical and powerful, and generally seems really well built to win fights at 185 pounds. Marquez, meanwhile, is a fighter who overperforms in the moment. He doesn’t always show up in the best shape, but he’ll fight hard nevertheless, and he has a real knack for turning the tide late.
While the recipe for a late rally from Marquez is certainly there, taking a lot of “Robocop” punches in the mush of the face to do so seems like iffy strategy. Rodrigues can crack, and enough damage will mitigate the chances of a comeback even if he can’t score a knockout.
Prediction: Rodrigues via decision

[JIBBBY]

Finally a decent Fight night card. This thing has a lot more high quality fights than the last few pay per views.

Is a stacked card!

[Thrilla]

Finally a decent Fight night card. This thing has a lot more high quality fights than the last few pay per views.

Let's hope it also delivers.

Do not judge a book by it's cover. Last week's card has proven. Turned out to be the best in a long time

[Thrilla]

Is a stacked card!

Any ageing fighters on this one? How will you make yourself look like a great mma handicapper this time? Oh wait fade Cerrone? Chin master?

[Brandt Moat]

Taking Kattar/Emmett UNDER 4 1/2. Like this one to the point I might put 3 units on it. Love Guram at + money. I feel odds makers are juicing the Russian and Kazakhstan fighters odds. They seem to be the punters favorite fighters to bet on. Might be my imagination. Guram will put up some wins if healthy. He is getting +$ due to his 2 year layoff. I'm also going with Rodrigues. The Cuban Missile Crisis is in a crisis. His inactivity and lack of hand speed will cost him in this one. My 5 STAR (a joke) upset of the card....Dolidze this one just come off the page at me. At +200 I am on this all day every day. Double your cash on this one fellas. Have hit a few of these lately. So, if I hit a few-I guess I missed a few?? GL

[Demonata]

I hope dirty bird can upset Holland!

[JIBBBY]

Any ageing fighters on this one? How will you make yourself look like a great mma handicapper this time? Oh wait fade Cerrone? Chin master?

Must fade Cowboy normally at this point but Joe is a washed up old vet himself.

This could have easily been a Bellator fight. Still it might be fun to watch. Bet on I'm not sure? Maybe Cowboy..

[JC2008]

Cerrone/Lauzon's off.

[Merlin21]

Let's hope it also delivers.

Do not judge a book by it's cover. Last week's card has proven. Turned out to be the best in a long time

That turned out to be a great card

[Merlin21]

Damn.... Felt bad... That was assault

[Merlin21]

Taking a flyer on Jeremiah Wells by TKO +490 here

[209 Life]

Damn McGee got the treatment I give Brandt on the weekly.

[Thrilla]

Must fade Cowboy normally at this point but Joe is a washed up old vet himself.

This could have easily been a Bellator fight. Still it might be fun to watch. Bet on I'm not sure? Maybe Cowboy..

The chin master has spoken

[JIBBBY]

Now that was a fun card to watch! If any UFC event should have been PPV it should have been that one, right?


Hit and miss in this event and I didn't win money but I still enjoyed it still. Next..

[Allure]

Not bad but Kattar was pretty disappointing. His striking at times looked like Ronda Rousey's "striking" with all the air strikes. Aside from jabs he didn't really hurt Emmett, he looked terrible due to the volume but Emmett earned it. Kattar should stick to lower ranked fighters, his cute Ronda Rousey striking won't win him fights if those miracle elbows don't connect.

[JIBBBY]

Not bad but Kattar was pretty disappointing. His striking at times looked like Ronda Rousey's "striking" with all the air strikes. Aside from jabs he didn't really hurt Emmett, he looked terrible due to the volume but Emmett earned it. Kattar should stick to lower ranked fighters, his cute Ronda Rousey striking won't win him fights if those miracle elbows don't connect.

Kattar bitch jabbed all night and kept his distance and was afraid to engage. He deserved to lose. Judges got it right.

[Allure]

Kattar bitch jabbed all night and kept his distance and was afraid to engage. He deserved to lose. Judges got it right.

Yeah even his coaches said that he has to let it fly in the last round yet he again didn't do shit. Wouldn't have minded an unanimous decision either.

[Brandt Moat]

lost $$ but a good card!!

[209 Life]

lost $$ but a good card!!

You lose money every card.

[Brandt Moat]

Post #9 Dumb Dumb. Come up with a post of some substance once in a while. Diock nose Loser!

You lose money every card.

[209 Life]

Post #9 Dumb Dumb. Come up with a post of some substance once in a while. Diock nose Loser!

Post a winner peon

[Brandt Moat]

...

Post a winner peon

[magpie878]

I didn't get to see any of this card, unfortunately... when I'm watching next, it'll be all decision fights..


The past few fight threads are so full of anger

[5918mike]

Kattar bitch jabbed all night and kept his distance and was afraid to engage. He deserved to lose. Judges got it right.

I can follow that logic but giving Emmett round 4 was idiotic. I am fine with 1-2-3 for Emmitt and 4-5 for Kattar in the system they are using but felt like Kattar had the bigger rounds. I would have gave Katter a 10-8 5th and called it a draw, 47-47.