[Headsterx]

Went and signed upped to Peacock to see if the Usfl is free nope its part of the Premium package so no day game for me!

I think they have a free trial available.

[Headsterx]

62 yards TD! Generals take the lead.

[mcaulay777]

Yes Maulers not disappointing so far.I saw that they do im thinking saving it for later like appletv for baseball game in the summer.Dont want to waste it on Pittsburg.I put a little pizza money on the over for the late game.

[KVB]

If it was 14-3 at half I would say there is a better chance of Pitt coming back than the game going UNDER so get ready for halftime bets.

But a few defensive penalties looks to have helped Pitt score.

Shit.

I'm going to feel like a real idiot betting that two pick that is different from the paper bet moneyflow two pick when Pitt wins this game.

NJ -3.5 second half, Total at 16.5.

The opening line at Circa was NJ -7.5 but it didn't take to long to trade up.

For the sake of that parlay I hope that is all the "back dooring" Pitt does today, lol.

Knew Pitt would come to play, helping the OVER, but I would love to declare Pitt a tease and Take NJ -3.5, but I just can't. If only we had Forecasts to stack percentages.

[KVB]

Nice hit on both with a little bit of luck at the end. These kickers throughout the league are horrible. ..

Unreal the kicking this week. They should just punt instead of even attempting a 40+ yarder.

[KVB]

Another missed FG by NJ.

NJ will cover the -3.5 second half, the early -7.5 opener, but not the widely traded closer.

The OVER pays, the money flow two pik hits again, m6 gamble on the two pik loses

Can Birmingham do it again?

[KVB]

Can't rule out the potential moneyflow two pick of Pit/Birm today...

I mention the pressures of a favorite and underdog when there are pairs and when Pitt covered the spread in the first game the -2's moved to -2.5's and we see pressure on the -2.5's a s well.

I'm biting on that sell. I picked up...

Birmingham -2.5 (-105)

Birmingham -133

Playing fairly loose here but we have probabilities with us so this is a market shot worth taking. The moneyline is from BAS, and an awfully good deal so we have a right to be suspicious.

There are a lot of -145's out there.

[KVB]

Bookmaker moved to -3 before game time and many offshore moneylines moved to -150.

[KVB]

TB scored a FG first but the Birmingham LIVE lines are absolute shit here.

Absolute shit.

Or I would be going LIVE here.

[KVB]

I went LIVE...

Birmingham -105 LIVE

It's the end of the 1st quarter, TB leads 3-0.

That's 3 bets on Birmingham today.

[KVB]

Here are the Market Read plays so far in this thread with links to each play...

Record	Date	USFL Market Reads	1 Unit
ATS/TOT			per bet
0-1-0	18-Apr	PIT +6 (-105)	-1
1-1-0	24-Apr	NO +2.5 (-105)	0.95
		NO +128	1.28
2-1-0	30-Apr	BIRM +6 (-105)	0.95
2-2-0	1-May	PHI -2.5 (-105)	-1
		PHI -133	-1
3-2-0	7-May	NJ/PIT OVER 32.5 (-105)	0.95
		NJ -10 (-105)/OVER 32.5 (-105)	-1
4-2-0		BIRM -2.5 (-105)	0.95
		BIRM -133	0.75
		BIRM -105 LIVE	0.95
4-2-0		Market Reads	2.78

Here are the money flow paper bets, with standard payouts on the parlays. These are more about right and wrong, not the units...

Date	Paper Bet Parlay	1 Unit
		per bet
18-Apr	PIT +6/OVER 41.5	-1
24-Apr	NO +2.5/UNDER 40.5	2.65
24-Apr	BIR +6/MICH -3.5/PHI -2	-1
1-May	MICH -3.5/PHI -2.5,-1.5	-1
	MICH -175/PHI -135	-1
7-May	PHI +1.5/OVER 33	2.65
	PIT +10.5/OVER 32.5	2.65
	Paper	3.95

[KVB]

Not surprised we've seen the line on today's game rise, tha favorite is getting chewed up.

I am passing here. I think we got enough out of this week already.

Happy Mother's Day and Good Luck SBR.

[mcaulay777]

Nice Solid Info Kvb no i will have some action thought there would be more Points Last Night.I like New Orleans i think with Birmingham are the 2 top teams i just think -61/2 now just a little too high so a little pizza money on Houston.Staying away now form over /unders just cant get a read.

[mcaulay777]

WOW I guess im going to Make Cousin Sal's Bet Aches how in the world did Houston not cover! Thats Gambling.

[KVB]

Ok, real quick, we've had 4 weeks, and even without years of data for the quants to mine, there is still market data and 4 weeks is enough on field data to make some kind of team comparisons.

As far as the flow of money I don't really like this week but just like nearly all football, we have already seen a lot of give and take. I think the Pitt/Hou line, the final game on Sunday, has likely moved to far at 6 points and I think Pitt +6 could be the targer here. I say moved, but most houses picked it up at 5.5 or 6 wile the early opener at Circa was Hou -4.5.

Either way I think the ass of the league, who covered last week's closer, could be the bet this week.

I have ideas for the flow of money, but tonight's game needs to occur. I can make cased for both teams and see, at least for now, a pass tonight.

[mcaulay777]

No Passing here right back on the Horse Going with some Pizza Money on Tampa Tonight.Off to Ca and Las Vegas may post from there but i will be Driving.Was Going to Take Houston points a little high.So since im going to be on the road might be my only bet.What do you mean your going to Pass,The only ones that pass KVB Are NFL Quarterbacks and i dont see a number on your back.

[KVB]

Nice hit with TB McCauley.

I think it was the right play and I'm glad it actually fell that way.

I also think New Orleans is the right play but watching the early -2 go all the way to -3.5. I also lean to the OVER here, but again I'm passing on both and watching the money flow. I think this week 5 is a good week for some patience.

If New Jersey takes an early lead I'll be looking LIVE.

If I make a two pick moneyflow parlay this week it will likely involve the spread and Total of the last game. Possibly both spreads tomorrow.

One thing to note is that while yesterday's spread moved from -2.5 to -2 by close the remaining spreads this week have all moved towards the favorite. There is a side to choose here, there are potential parlay decisions here, but I prefer to wait, and see what side today's game falls on.

I lean NO and OVER but the line has moved in both those directions.

Finally, we have those dirty birds of Birmingham tomorrow, a whole issue themselves. They are the of the league and like I've been saying, week 5, after we've had 4 weeks of play under our belts, will bring another audience and more bettors, we see that in the pressure on the favorites.

It's a threshold for Birmingham as they've covered every spread so far including 3 times as a favorite.

Those Birm -6.5's have moved to -7, but a bubble is forming.

Is it the week of favorites? Who's the dog? Philly or Pitt?

A NJ spread cover today would reframe that question, that's for sure.

[KVB]

New Orleans with a late move just minutes after that last post and minutes before kickoff to -4 across Vegas and in some spots online.

I do believe NO was the bet today, but I chose the pass.

They are still -3.5 LIVE, but I do not like it.

If that NO pressure is to fail, I want the moneyline under good price at least.

I get the feeling NO will bleed it out though, NJ will just come up short, and we don't get any LIVE value at all.

[KVB]

...If New Jersey takes an early lead I'll be looking LIVE....

I went ahead and shot LIVE on NO...

14-May

NO -135 LIVE

With NJ up 7-3 and the ball late in the first, the price became right, or right enough.

[mcaulay777]

I was hoping you would get the boiler point or boiler room reference

[Headsterx]

Too much going on yesterday and missed that game. But wait... Sunday we got games! No way is Maulers covering two weeks in a row. I should've known as 10 pts were too high but I think 6 pts is decent and gotta take Gamblers. Want to make money and get a good laugh, too, then this is the game.

We also have the undefeated Stallions and they have covered all 4 games. It's up to 7 pts now but still taking them in a nice college football morning 9am start time. We're ending the midpoint of USFL and it's been exciting.

[KVB]

That NO Live bet was a terrible play, I should not have forced it. Terrible move for the thread.

Passing early here, talked about the first game already, nothing has really changed. What I did not do this week was use the four weeks to introduce ratings or pencil in a forecast. I still plan to do that, even if week 5 ends.

That thought about being half way through kind of sucks, we just got to 4 weeks of data...lol.

Passing early, still eying Pitt in game two, but not committing yet. We have won with Birmingham a couple of times this season, I think today we pass on them.

[Headsterx]

And take the OVER 36.5 (-125)!!!!

[Headsterx]

Quick strike by the Stars: 7-0

[Headsterx]

We got a game: 7-7

[KVB]

Yeah, when it was 7-0 I was trying to get Birm LIVE but I just didn't want to pay more than -200.

And that's all they were offering.

[KVB]

This first game has already gone OVER today, that's all 3 games so far.

The moneyflow two pick I was thinking of here was Pitt/UNDER, and the UNDER part of the two pick is getting quite loaded. I mentioned early on how the Total will fukk the two pick, perhaps we see all OVERs this week.

I have not declared a paper two pick today, yet, but Pitt/Under has been th.e thought since the beginning of the week and that has not changed.

We might se OT in this first game today, with what I think will be Birmingham going on to cover (I think).

At least the value on Pitt hasn't evaporated, yet. If Birmingham does go on to cover, I would expect to see some Pitt pressure in the market.

[Headsterx]

Yeah, when it was 7-0 I was trying to get Birm LIVE but I just didn't want to pay more than -200.

And that's all they were offering.

Stallions pts diff in the 2nd Half is huge. Great 2H team.

Stallions and over!

[KVB]

Ok so the paper bet moneyflow parlay is...

Two Pick

Pitt +6
UNDER 34.5

The tricky thing can be finding both of those numbers fora parlay. Onshore, I can get it done.

Offshore, we find 6 wtih 34 or 34.5 with 5.5 anywhere where you can get anything decent down.

If you watch the markets, which can be time consuming, and requires at least many check ins or line alerts, you will see these things.

I am sort of hoping that we get an 0-2 moneyflow parlay here, I think it would lead to bets down the road.

It is close, I almost made the parlay above and almost bet them individually. But I will pass here, for now.

I jumped the gun LIVE yesterday and I want to see where and how the money settles today. This settlement could get pushed to the first game next week, something I mentioned early on in the thread.

Tonight we'll find out just how dirty this league is.

[Headsterx]

Ok so the paper bet moneyflow parlay is...

Two Pick

Pitt +6
UNDER 34.5

The tricky thing can be finding both of those numbers fora parlay. Onshore, I can get it done.

Offshore, we find 6 wtih 34 or 34.5 with 5.5 anywhere where you can get anything decent down.

Yeah, gotta take the under. But don't trust Maulers at all.

[KVB]

Yeah, gotta take the under. But don't trust Maulers at all.

Really does feel like the market is sort of selling Pitt here. I mentioned Pitt from day one and I would rather see the market take away probabilities as it progresses, not really add them.

I know that sounds a little odd, but for week 5 it becomes a reality. I didn't want to be drawn to Pitt, I wanted to be repulsed, or even drawn to Hou. Which we are as well.

The market, on Sunday of week 5, in my opinion, has managed to create action on both sides, it's forcing a gamble.

To loaded for my liking.

[Headsterx]

Really does feel like the market is sort of selling Pitt here. I mentioned Pitt from day one and I would rather see the market take away probabilities as it progresses, not really add them.

I know that sounds a little odd, but for week 5 it becomes a reality. I didn't want to be drawn to Pitt, I wanted to be repulsed, or even drawn to Hou. Which we are as well.

The market, on Sunday of week 5, in my opinion, has managed to create action on both sides, it's forcing a gamble.

To loaded for my liking.

Did you say "gamble"? So it's Gamblers -6 (-105), on it!

[Headsterx]

Gets to 14 yd and 1st and 10. Gets sack, dropped pass, and forced bad throw and then missed FG. Don't trust Maulers.

[KVB]

Gets to 14 yd and 1st and 10. Gets sack, dropped pass, and forced bad throw and then missed FG. Don't trust Maulers.

Cementing the position of ass of the league.

[KVB]

...There have been 12 games and even though UNDERS are 8-4 and there has been some wild variance, the average margin of total scores from the closing market is just -2.3 points...

Technically, over the last 7 games, there has been just 1 UNDER against the close, and a push, but it does depend on the line you had.

With that I have 9-9-1 for Totals against the close (11-8-0 vs the open) up to this afternoon's game. The average margin of final scores from the the market is now just .5 points.