[Jeff_Black]

ATP Rotterdam 500
Filip Krajinovic vs Marton Fucsovics
Moneyline: Marton Fucsovics, 2.09 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

I don't think there is a big difference between these two guys, both play well indoors, both had some good success indoors. Perhaps buying a bit low on Fucsovics here with the odds present. Overall as a player i definitely think Fucsovics is the better guy out of the two and has a style of play that suits this surface better. Feel like he is the better server and will be hard to break here. Looking at Fucsovics to kick start his season and as a reminder he has 300 points to defend from last years Final, and only dropped one set early until he made the Final. Krajinovic did make a SF last week in France but as we know the consistency of these guys to back up a good tournament varies. The 3-0 h2h in Krajinovic's favour has 2 wins on clay where Fucsovics isn't known for being career below .500 on the main tour.

[Jeff_Black]

1 - 0 - 0, +5.45u

ATP Dallas 250, R16
Mens Singles
Kevin Anderson vs John Isner
Moneyline: John Isner, 1.813
Stake: 3u play

Isner may not have gotten to the start he wanted to, struggling in Australia but I think back at home in the States is where he will find his feet and Wins. He wasn't too bad and played some guys who were playing very well. Some of those losses made it deep into their respective tournaments as well as Kokkinakis who won Adelaide 2. I feel like his odds are a bit inflated due to this and normally with Anderson's lack of form/match practice and injury struggles Isner would be even lower. They haven't played in nearly 5 years since their 5 set Wimbledon Semi Final but in the past Isner has enjoyed a 6-3 H2H in the United States and in general where he wins a fair portion of his matches.

[Jeff_Black]

2 - 0 - 0, +7.889u

ATP Rotterdam 500, R16
Mens Singles
Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Jiri Lehecka
Moneyline: Jiri Lehecka, 3.41 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I was tossing up between the line and the ML, and for those less confident who want to take the line, its still a solid bet if you can get a good price like +100 or more or even +4 at lower odds which I usually don't recommend. But as always I like to take risks that I think are worth it and those who have seen at times you can build up some nice wins making wagers at higher odds with a much better ROI even with a lower hit rate.
Jiri Lehecka had a really nice win first up against Denis Shapovalov, and he looked like a guy who had been a regular on the tour, and not a newbie to the tour. He held his nerve well and didn't let his errors get the best of him. Even though it's easy to have a letdown after such a good win I think he can win another match against a beatable opponent, and one he has beaten before. I think BVDZ's odds are a bit too generous despite playing at home and having a good run on hardcourts last year. He is definitely not a reliable player to be betting as such a short favourite.
If he plays with confidence like he did against Shapovalov and even that match against Dimitrov in Australia I think he can win again today.

[Jeff_Black]

3 - 0 - 0, +10.299u

ATP Rotterdam 500, R16
Mens Singles
Marton Fucsovics vs Tailon Griekspoor
Money line: Marton Fucsovics, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Griekspoor may have continued his run of getting big upsets at home here in first rounds including a really impressing comeback against Karatsev but he is also known not to do much with them following the 2nd round.
I think the odds are too short for someone who’s career highlight was an unusual 26 match winning streak on challengers. Which have probably continued to inflate his odds here. And again against someone who is the superior player out of the two.
Fucsovics started poorly in his first round match and his serving was off but after being a set and a break down too he found a way to win and got better as the game went along. I think the wrong player is favoured again.

[Goodtimemafiaz]

dammmm...you been nailing all your games spot on...its too bad i miss all of them...i hope i get to catch the next one

[Jeff_Black]

4 - 0 - 0, +13.509U

ATP Dallas 250, R16
Mens Singles
Adrian Mannarino vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Moneyline: Yoshihito Nishioka 2.63 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

There have been quite a few matches on this surface that have been close, three sets and tiebreak filled which leads us into the final matchup on todays draw for Dallas. The odds were much closer before with Nishioka being 2.2s which felt right but now that he is drifted out a lot this makes it a play worth getting on for mine. With Mannarino not being too short and a guy I dont totally trust as a favourite in this spot despite some surprisingly good unexpected wins I am going to side with another underdog here with the odds on offer. Again a risk because of his form but some of the other guys I have backed so far are contrary to the trends and he's more then capable of winning this matchup.

[Jeff_Black]

4 - 1 - 0, +11.509U

ATP Buenos Aires 250, QF
Francisco Cerundolo vs Diego Schwartzman
Handicap: Francisco Cerundolo +4.5, 1.819 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Schwartzman has had a rough start to 2022 and even on this surface he loves playing on in Argentina. His opponent also knows this surface well and also plays well on clay and who has won plenty of matches in Challengers as well as a few titles including one last month. Schwartzman won their last matchup very comfortably last year but I’m expecting Cerundolo to put up a better showing today based off what I’ve seen so far this tournament and Schwartzman lack of form.

[Jeff_Black]

The above match is set to resume at 1pm, as of now it's still not completed.

ATP Rotterdam 500, SF
Mens Singles
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev, 1.724 on Pinnacle
Stake: 6u play

Going against where the money is going for the price now which I like. Bit surprising. Rublev has a knack for winning 500pt events and is defending champion. Has been playing well on this surface and looks like he has put the disappointment of his early exit in Australia away. Understandable that this matchup will be different from their previous one in Australia but I think Rublev is the better ball striker and mover then any of FAA's opponents so far and in comparison I think he will be tougher to break but also will try and break into his opponents games like he has done in other matches giving himself plenty of break point chances.

[Jeff_Black]

5 - 1 - 0, +15.604U

ATP Dallas 250, SF
John Isner vs Reilly Opelka
Money line: John Isner, 2.29 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Dallas is obviously a servers court seen by guys who all have big serves making the Semis here as well as two of the biggest serves facing off each other. I don’t have that big of a difference between the two myself despite what the odds suggest and I felt Isner has been pretty good this tournament and gotten better with each match. Opelka has had the wood recently but I think Isner can get this one back.
Amazingly outside of their first match the rest of their matches have all been tiebreaks. Should expect the same here too with the aces these guys have been hitting.

[pabonaparte]

That tie-break was threatening to make it to the record books... or did it?

[Jeff_Black]

That tie-break was threatening to make it to the record books... or did it?

I don't think I've seen a tiebreak that has gone that long. Could have ended much sooner as Isner had a mini break early on in that tiebreak, as well as a set point on serve at 10-9 I think it was then proceeded to lose both points on serve.
The famous Borg/McEnroe Wimbledon 1980 4th set tiebreak went 18-16.

5 - 3 - 0, +6.604U

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Filip Krajinovic vs Malek Jaziri
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +6, 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

A fair play to have the odds this high but in the past Jaziri has had some okay results and a few upsets. In the past he has not backed down to the big challenges, most notably taking a set off Federer who had been playing well. With Krajinovic's struggling form, and most notably in Rotterdam +6 is a fairly big line and one I don't mind taking expecting it to be much closer.

[pabonaparte]

Scary Injury break at 7-6, 2-6, 4-4 in the third set. Come on, play through pain!

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I always see him serve well here whenever he plays, and I know it's not always smart backing a guy of his calibre and age but I put that play down to following the sport and knowing a player, where they do well even if its unexpected. Sometimes it doesn't work out but usually it does.

6 - 3 - 0, +9.754U

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
Grigor Dimitrov vs Maxime Cressy
Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -2, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

[Jeff_Black]

6 - 3 - 1, +9.754U

Match cancelled after Cressy withdrew, replaced by Kozlov.

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
Alexander Zverev vs Jenson Brooksby
Handicap: Alexander Zverev -4, 1.819 on Pinnacle
Stake: 4u play

Zverev was the defending champion in the 2021 edition of this tournament and has not dropped a set. Despite the disappointment of a 4R exit in Australia he did not suffer such a hangover making the Final of Montpellier with a shock loss to Alexander Bublik. His 2022 form hasn't been as good as his form at the backend of last year and outside of the US on this surface I give a fair bit of an edge to Zverev to break down his opponents like he has on Hardcourts so far. Looking at him to start his title defence strongly.


ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Hubert Hurkacz vs Alexander Bublik
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 2.74 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

This is both a blend of a fade on Hurkacz plus backing a player who is running into some good form. Definitely feel the odds are too short for Hurkacz and good to take Bublik. Despite having some disappointing results since his title in Montpellier Bublik does like the surfaces of the Middle East and has performed well on them in the past. He has also registered a win against Hurkacz in the 2020 edition of Dubai here.
Despite the mirage of his ranking, Hurkacz has looked anything but a played ranked close to the top 10 and is most definitely beatable because of his inconsistency on the tour.

Might look at a couple of other matches in Dubai. Like De Minaur to beat Khachanov and feeling something with the Karatsev and McDonald match but holding off for now.

[Jeff_Black]

Don’t know if anyone watched that match but Kozlov cramped up massively and can barely walk. The slow mo replay of it happening in motion was quite something. Haven’t seen that in some time.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Aslan Karatsev vs Mackenzie McDonald
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Karen Khachanov vs Alex De Minaur
Moneyline: Alex De Minaur, 2.18 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

6 - 7 - 1, -0.246U

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, SF
Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Daniil Medvedev -1.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 6u play

An early Australian Open rematch with these two should be a good one. Medvedev was obviously very unfortunate not to come away with his 2nd Major trophy and a break point away in the third set (after having three of them) from a likely win there. Based off his form so far in Acapulco he's shown little hangover from his loss there and despite having the World Number 1 ranking for the first time with Djokovic's early Dubai exit, I still think he's motivated here. He was the better player in Australia until he mentally fell off, with a little (lot) of help from the crowd's side in Nadal's favour. The Acapulco crowd will be more neutral and the media spotlight isn't as much on Medvedev this time around with the DQ of Zverev earlier in the tournament still lingering on. If he truly wants to and thinks he belongs in the elite in the present he will win this match and win this tournament to prove to everyone he's the man to beat and a deserving number 1. It is not as humid, this time around and Nadal did struggle a bit more against Tommy Paul so it will be interesting to see how he handles this one this time around. Tactically Medvedev knows what he needs to do, so we will see if he does it again.