[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus
Belal Muhammad vs. Stephen Thompson
Angela Hill vs. Amanda Lemos
Raphael Assuncao vs. Ricky Simon
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Darren Elkins vs. Cub Swanson

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
Harry Hunsucker vs. Justin Tafa
Sijara Eubanks vs. Melissa Gatto
Andre Ewell vs. Charles Jourdain
Raquel Pennington vs. Macy Chiasson
Don’Tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian
Jordan Leavitt vs. Matt Sayles

[Demonata]

Nice! Wonderboy on the card!

[hankcream]

I think Angela Hill is a live dog but there is no way in hell that I'm betting another women's MMA fight.

[magpie878]

I'm no big Lewis fan when it comes to betting, but I think he'll clip Daukaus.

Not a whole lot I like otherwise... maybe a few people by sub props.

[PaperTrail07]

Was hoping to catch Daukaus +$, then I was in.....now probably pass...

[magpie878]

Was hoping to catch Daukaus +$, then I was in.....now probably pass...

He's plus money to win ITD.

[JIBBBY]

Write ups prelims. MMA MANIA



145 lbs.: Charles Jourdain vs. Andre Ewell

An upset of Doo Ho Choi highlighted Charles Jourdain’s (11-4-1) 1-2-1 UFC start, which also featured both a split decision loss and a split draw. He kept the judges out of the equation in his subsequent war with Marcelo Rojo, but succumbed to a comeback d’arce choke from Julian Erosa six months later.
He’s ended all 11 of his wins inside the distance, eight of them via knockout.
Andre Ewell (17-8) claimed victory in four of his first six Octagon appearances, most notably edging out Renan Barao in his debut and doing the same to Jonathan Martinez 1.5 years later. “Highlight” now finds himself in the midst of a two-fight skid, most recently suffering a standing technical knockout loss to Julio Arce.
Despite moving up from Bantamweight, he sports a six-inch reach advantage.
I really did have high hopes for Ewell, but to say he hasn’t panned out is an understatement. Three of his four UFC wins came by split decision, including ones against the completely shot Barao and a man in Irwin Rivera who gave up seven inches of reach. Moving up to Featherweight isn’t going to cure what ails him.
While Jourdain is plenty flawed in his own right, his size and power look like more than Ewell can handle, especially since he’s far more used to fighting 145ers. A perfect Ewell performance could see him eke out a decision with long-range boxing, but we’re almost nine fights into his UFC career and I’ve yet to see a perfect Ewell performance. Jourdain chops him down for a late finish.
Prediction: Jourdain via third-round technical knockout
Related
Free Fight! Lewis Scores Scary KO Win Over Blaydes


135 lbs.: Raquel Pennington vs. Macy Chiasson

An unsuccessful title shot against Amanda Nunes kicked off a 1-3 skid for Raquel Pennington (12-8), capped off by a unanimous decision loss to Holly Holm at UFC 246. She got back on track with a decision over Marion Reneau five months later, then ended a 15-month layoff by snapping Pannie Kianzad’s four-fight winning streak in Sept. 2021.
She stands four inches shorter than Macy Chiasson (7-1), who will also enjoy a 4.5-inch reach advantage.
Chiasson followed her dominant run on the Contender Series with three straight finishes in the Octagon, though a surprisingly strong effort from Lina Lansberg soon knocked her from the ranks of the unbeaten. She’s since assembled a fresh two-fight winning streak, though she’s needed to go the distance to do so.
She steps in for the injured Julia Avila on just under two weeks’ notice.
This might be wishful thinking on my part due to Pennington’s unappealing style and reality-defying assertions that her opponents are the ones who turn her fights into clinch slogs, but I do think Chiasson has a real shot here. She showed some really solid clinchwork last time out against Marion Reneau, constantly making room for strikes while avoiding getting flattened against the fence. Between her punching power, her knees, and her elbows, she’s also a fair bit more destructive than Pennington on the inside.
Chiasson’s height and reach almost certainly give her the edge at range, while her aforementioned size, strength, and technical ability should let her keep up in Pennington’s wheelhouse. Eye-catching shots carry her to a narrow decision win.
Prediction: Chiasson via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Black Beast’ Returns To Vegas!


265 lbs.: Don’Tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian

The third time proved the charm for Don’Tale Mayes (8-4) on “Contender Series,” where he knocked out Ricardo Prasel to finally secure a contract in July 2019. Stoppage losses to Ciryl Gane and Rodrigo Nascimento followed, though he managed to turn aside a late surge and score a decision over Roque Martinez in his most recent effort.
He’ll have two inches of height and reach on Josh Parisian (14-4).
Two years after a spinning backfist knockout on the Contender Series sent him to The Ultimate fighter, Parisian pounded out Chad Johnson to earn a proper UFC contract. His Octagon run has seen him drop a decision to Parker Porter and subsequently escape with a split decision against Roque Martinez.
He has scored 10 pro knockouts and two submissions.
Mayes still has a long way to go towards maximizing the benefits of his massive frame and raw power, but he should be too much for Parisian. He’s certainly the better of the two at managing distance, as seen when the squat Martinez simply walked into the pocket against a fresh Parisian, and though he’s less fanciful with his kicks, he has the speed and power to keep up with Parisian at the latter’s preferred range.
Not that he really has to, since as established, Parisian will back himself into the fence and let you tee off with the slightest pressure.
Neither of the two is a particularly adept takedown artist, so their lacking ground games shouldn’t play a factor. With free rein to strike to their hearts’ content, Mayes’ physical advantages and relative lack of glaring defensive flaws figure to win the day.
Prediction: Mayes via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Vegas 45 Poster For ‘Lewis Vs Daukaus’


155 lbs.: Jordan Leavitt vs. Matt Sayles

Jordan Leavitt (8-1) tapped Luke Flores to graduate from the Contender Series, then needed just 22 seconds to turn Matt Wiman’s lights out with a vicious slam in his UFC debut. “The Monkey King” didn’t do quite as well against Claudio Puelles, who dominated the latter two rounds to hand Leavitt his first-ever defeat.
His professional finishes are split 5/1 between submissions and knockouts.
Matt Sayles (8-3) — owner of five previous knockouts — flashed his power once again by smashing Yazan Hajeh in a contract-winning “Contender Series” bout. He has since gone 1-2 in the Octagon, a submission win over Kyle Nelson sandwiched between losses to Sheymon Moraes and Bryce Mitchell.
This marks “Robo’s” first fight in two years and just the second Lightweight bout of his pro career.
While I do think Sayles is better than his 1-2 Octagon record would suggest, this is a hell of a rough return to action. His defensive grappling has long been a weakness, and for all the red flags Leavitt showed against Puelles, he’s certainly got the wrestling and submission skills to ruin Sayles’ day. There’s also the size to consider, as Sayles has fought almost exclusively at Featherweight since his 2014 pro debut.
Sayles is still plenty talented and young enough to have made some big strides during his time away, but I can’t back him against a larger, stronger grappler, even one who fell apart after the first round last time. Leavitt drags him down for a quick submission finish.
Prediction: Leavitt via first-round submission



185 lbs.: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Dustin Stoltzfus (13-3) capped off a 10-fight win streak with a slam finish of Joseph Pyfer on “Contender Series,” earning a UFC contract in the process. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon itself, as he’s dropped consecutive bouts to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira.
Both Anthony Hernandez and Caio Borralho had to withdraw from bouts with Stoltzfus, leaving him to step in when Abusupiyan Magomedov pulled out of his clash with Gerald Meerschaert (33-14).
Despite snapping a two-fight losing streak with a bonus-winning guillotine of Bartosz Fabinski, Meerschaert entered his Aug. 2021 battle with top prospect Makhmud Muradov as a massive underdog. In a vintage performance, “GM3” survived a hairy start to choke out “Mach” in the second round and claim yet another performance bonus.
His 31 professional stoppages include 26 submissions.
Meerschaert’s chin may not be as indestructible as it was before, but the Muradov fight showed that it’s not completely shot just yet. That’s definitely bad news for Stoltzfus, who needs a knockout if he wants to win this. “GM3’s” volume striking and venomous submission game both look like more than Stoltzfus can handle, and they figure to get ever more insurmountable as the rounds progress.
You have to feel for Stoltzfus, who’s faced nothing but dangerous finishers during his brief Octagon tenure. Hopefully, UFC brass find enough mercy in their hearts to give him a more reasonable match up after Meerschaert wears him down for a mid-round finish.
Prediction: Meerschaert via second round submission
Related
Up Next! ‘Black Beast’ Returns To Vegas!


135 lbs.: Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Raoni Barcelos (16-2) entered UFC as RFA’s Featherweight champion, and he lived up to his credentials by winning his first five in the Octagon. This set up a clash with Timur Valiev, who survived a near-knockout to narrowly edge Barcelos out by majority decision.
He’s knocked out eight professional foes and submitted two others.
Victor Henry (21-5) — an acolyte of the great Josh Barnett — largely made his name with impressive success on the Japanese circuit. Said success includes his current 8-1 run, which most recently saw him return to the States to choke out Albert Morales in an LXF title fight.
“La Mangosta” steps in for Trevin Jones on less than two weeks’ notice.
Even with a relatively recent loss to Denis Lavrentyev marring his record, it’s hard to argue that Henry hasn’t earned his place in the Octagon. That said, he’s screwed here. I don’t like to use the phrase “better everywhere,” but that really seems to be the case; Henry’s been touched up by lesser strikers than Barcelos, taken down by lesser wrestlers, and outmaneuvered by lesser ground artists.
The bigger question for me is whether the 34-year-old Henry will finally suffer his first stoppage loss in 11 years as a professional. Considering how many weapons the Brazilian brings to bear, it would certainly be an achievement in its own right if he managed to last the full 15 minutes. Sadly, I see Barcelos either icing him with a perfectly timed counter or pounding him out from the top.
Prediction: Barcelos via second round technical knockout
Related
UFC Vegas 45 Poster For ‘Lewis Vs Daukaus’


265 lbs.: Justin Tafa vs. Harry Hunsucker (7-4)

Australia’s Justin Tafa (4-3) rebounded from a brutal knockout loss in his UFC debut by battering Juan Adams into submission four months later. Then came a controversial decision loss to Carlos Felipe, followed by a “Fight of the Night” war with Jared Vanderaa that saw “The Mountain” out-work Tafa over three rounds.
All four of his professional wins have come by knockout.
Harry Hunsucker (7-4) rode a five-fight, five-finish streak into “Contender Series,” where he touched up Vanderaa in the early going before succumbing to ground-and-pound. Two fights later, he stepped up on short notice to face Tai Tuivasa, who handed Hunsucker the fourth (technical) knockout loss of his professional career just 49 seconds into the first round.
I’m not prepared to write off the 27-year-old Tafa quite yet. He certainly has the physical tools to be a threat, and I had him beating Felipe despite still being a neophyte in the sport. It’s only if he somehow loses to Hunsucker that I’ll cut bait. That’s because “The Hurricane’s” sloppy offense and lack of defense make him the biggest gimme of Tafa’s Octagon tenure. Tafa may not be on the level of fellow Aussie Tuivasa, but he doesn’t have to be to knock Hunsucker senseless in similar fashion.
While Hunsucker deserves props for answering the call against “Bam Bam” and subsequently signing up to face another heavy hitter, all the props in the world can’t make up for a shaky, oft-unprotected chin. Tafa blasts him into oblivion within the first few minutes.
Prediction: Tafa via first round knockout
Related
Free Fight! Lewis Scores Scary KO Win Over Blaydes


125 lbs.: Sijara Eubanks vs. Melissa Gatto

After a series of weight cut issues booted her from UFC’s Flyweight division, Sijara Eubanks (7-6) returned to Bantamweight, where she put together a 2-4 run. Her return to 125 pounds in July 2021 proved a triumphant one, pounding out Octagon newcomer Elise Reed for her first professional stoppage since 2016.
She gives up one inch of height and two inches of reach to Melissa Gatto (7-0-2).
Gatto initially intended to make her UFC debut way back in 2019, only for injuries and travel restrictions to scrap four consecutive fights. She made up for lost time in Aug. 2021, however, dominating Victoria Leonardo en route to a second-round injury stoppage.
That win marked her first via (technical) knockout, though she’s scored four submissions as a professional.
There’s only so much you can glean from Eubanks’ win over Reed, a long-time Strawweight and former Atomweight who took the fight on short notice, but at least there weren’t any red flags. Eubanks looked strong and was admirably single-minded in her pursuit of the takedown instead of faffing about on the feet. That mindset figures to serve her well here, as Gatto’s much-improved boxing outclasses “Sarj’s” powerful but rudimentary stand up.
So long as Eubanks has the drive and motor to keep Gatto on the back foot, she shouldn’t have too much trouble dragging her down and dominating from the top while Gatto fruitlessly chases submissions. If she gives ground and lets Gatto control the pace and distance, she’ll get boxed up. The former seems a bit more likely than the latter.
Prediction: Eubanks via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Main Card -

Women’s Strawweight: Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill

Best Win for Lemos? Mizuki Inoue For Hill? Loma Lookboonmee
Current Streak: Lemos has won four straight, whereas Hill came up short last time out
X-Factor: Hill has much more experience vs. high-level opponents
How these two match up: One of the division’s hottest up-and-comers squares off against its most active veteran.
Lemos is on fire. Since dropping to 115 pounds, she’s won four straight fights, stopping three of her opponents in the process. Really, what separates Lemos from her peers is pure athleticism and physicality; the Brazilian cracks with a different level of intensity.
After breaking into the title mix with a string of strong performances, Hill has now come up short in three of her last four trips to the Octagon. Despite the recent struggles, Hill has still looked quite sharp on the feet with her movement and Muay Thai, and her grappling has come a long way.
Skill-for-skill, Hill is likely the better fighter. She’s a bit more varied in her offense and subtle with her movement. What’s not subtle is Lemos’ power advantage, which really jumps off the page and will surely influence the judges ... if the bout lasts that long. In order to outpoint Lemos, Hill will have to double up on her opponent’s strikes, and that level of volume might get Hill hurt in the process.
In general, Hill is a fighter who thrives because of her own athletic gifts, but that’s a problem vs. a more athletic opponent.
Prediction: Lemos via decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Black Beast’ Returns To Vegas!

---

Bantamweight: Ricky Simon vs. Raphael Assuncao

Best Win for Simon? Merab Dvalishvili For Assuncao? Rob Font
Current Streak: Simon has won three straight, while Assuncao has lost three in a row
X-Factor: Assuncao is nearly 40 years of age
How these two match up: These two are opposites in terms of styles and recent results, but it should be a great fight nevertheless.
Simon is not a complicated fighter to understand, but he plays his role well. A relentless wrestler with a mullet, Simon is as tough as advertised, has a deep gas tank, and can put together ripping combinations too. He’s an athlete that tends to thrive in the second half of fights, when his pace and grit have worn opponent’s down.
Conversely, Assuncao is one of the most veteran fighters on the roster. A professional since 2004, Assuncao earns his paycheck via craftiness. His kickboxing timing is off-beat, as he lands counter rights that really surprise opponents, and he’s an excellent wrestler and grappler to boot.
Were this match up to take place even 18 months ago, I would have confidently sided with the Brazilian. He’s the far sharper striker, and trying to wrestle with Assuncao has historically been a fool’s errand. Over the years, Assuncao has kicked the ass of many up-and-coming wrestlers in the Simon mold.
Unfortunately, this is Bantamweight, where it’s damn hard to survive at 39 years of age. Assuncao may be better early on, but Simon is tough enough to avoid getting finished, and he’s not going to take his foot off the gas at any point.
Prediction: Simon via decision
Related
Predictions! UFC Vegas 45 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

Predictions! UFC Vegas 45 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

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Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Best Win for Gamrot? Jeremy Stephens For Ferreira? Anthony Pettis
Current Streak: Gamrot has won two in a row, while Ferreira has lost his last two. I’m sensing a pattern!
X-Factor: It’s a big step up in competition for Gamrot
How these two match up: Lightweight excellence on display.
Gamrot entered UFC with a lot of hype, and though he stumbled in his debut, the Polish “Gamer” has rebounded in style. He’s one hell of a technician: an ultra slick wrestler, decorated jiu-jitsu black belt, and genuine knockout threat.
Still, he’s never fought anyone quite like Ferreira. The third-degree jiu-jitsu black is well-rounded himself, but he has the added benefit of many years of competition against elite Lightweights. Ferreira may not have broken into the title mix, but he came pretty damn close before coming up short vs. Beneil Dariush earlier this year.
This is a gigantic task for Gamrot. He’s not going to grab an early finish; this will be hard-fought every step of the way. Hell, several of Ferreira’s best wins — i.e. Rustam Khabilov — came when the Brazilian turned his opponent’s takedown attempts against them and also beat them up in the process.
That could happen here. If Gamrot takes a bad shot or is lazy in a scramble, he’ll be punished. At the same time, Ferreira has been out-hustled by top-tier grapplers in his last two bouts. The outcome of this bout will essentially prove whether or not Gamrot belongs to that elite class, and thus is a genuine contender for Lightweight gold.
One way or another, we’ll find out.
Prediction: Gamrot via decision
Related
UFC Vegas 45 Poster For ‘Lewis Vs Daukaus’

---

Featherweight: Cub Swanson vs. Darren Elkins

Best Win for Swanson? Dustin Poirier For Elkins? Mirsad Bektic
Current Streak: Swanson lost his last bout, whereas Elkins has won two straight
X-Factor: Both fighters have been through a lot of wars
How these two match up: This should be a really fun fight!
Swanson is now 38 years of age and recently returning from a complete ACL tear, but “Killer Cub” doesn’t seem to have slowed his roll just yet! Swanson has only really lost to top contenders in recent years, and he’s picked up some solid wins also. Even this deep in the game, Swanson is a powerful and tricky striker.
Meanwhile, “The Damage” is a legendary grinder. Elkins has no concern for his opponent’s offense, as he’ll take their best shots to keep his wrestling game going. When it comes to a battle of wills, Elkins has never been outmatched.
This is a pretty clear striker vs. grappler match up. With both men in their late 30s, a wrestling slog seems more likely than a continually crisp technical battle. In general, Elkins does an excellent job of forcing opponents into his style of grueling grappling match, even if it’s in their best interest to do something else.
He’ll likely take some shots in the process, but once Elkins gains top position, he’ll stay there.
Prediction: Elkins via decision

[frankieunits2685]

fight day

[Demonata]

I need wonderboy.

[JIBBBY]

I need wonderboy.

I'm thinking Wonder bitch by decision myself. Keep the distance and win on points round by round with his Karate crap style. Belal Muhammad Ali will try to pressure and wrestle him though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

0.25u bet on CDF ML is my only one for this card. Won't be able to watch this card at all. GL gents!

[Thor4140]

I don't think Cub Swanson has the fight IQ to beat Darren Elkins. I tried to get something out of Cris Daukas camp. My buddy trains with him. This is going two ways. Beast quits like he did against the best heavyweight striker i thought and that was Mark Hunt. Or it goes the way Chris last loss was against a similar puncher Azunna Zu which was fought at Parx Casino in Bensalem Pa. Chris almost had a quick knockout that night but than got knocked out himself. If Chris fights smart and uses his whole package which also includes a blackbet in JUjitz, and hits the beast to the body he takes this easily. If he is going to go punch for punch like a clown he stands a good chance of losing. If i had to i would bet Cris but i think i am going to pass. My buddy says they are zeroed in at the camp. I just don't trust this fight.
This other fighter Gamrot who fought jeremy Stevens last looks like an animal. That fight should be a good one.

[JIBBBY]

Let the games begin!!! GL everyone!!

[Thrilla]

[Kermit]

Ewell is one of the toughest guys that I've ever seen. I can't believe some of the shots that he took.

[JIBBBY]

Quick stoppage with Eubanks there. I thought she could have survived that body shot kick.

[FlaxMartin]

My gosh, I had Melissa Gato to win on finish at +400. Only bet 10 bucks though..

[FlaxMartin]

Quick stoppage with Eubanks there. I thought she could have survived that body shot kick.

na, that was inevitable.

[JIBBBY]

na, that was inevitable.

She had the leg and was recovering quickly when the ref was separating, IDK?

[JIBBBY]

Tafa round 1 finish for me here next.

[FlaxMartin]

She had the leg and was recovering quickly when the ref was separating, IDK?

Think Melissa would´ve pounded 5-6 quick headshots within 2-3 seconds. Close one though, but Melissa would´ve won by points anyways.

[FlaxMartin]

Tafa round 1 finish for me here next.

I´m with you on this one.

[Thrilla]

Wow nice Steven Seagal front kick from Gatto

That's the kick master sensei Steven Seagal taught Anderson Silva, which he used on Vitor Belfort

[Demonata]

Tafa round 1 finish for me here next.

Jibby if tafa gets taken down he's screwed!

[JIBBBY]

Tafa round 1 finish for me here next.

Cash it easy money

[FlaxMartin]

Wow, a lot of fighting happened in those 90 seconds.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

big KO......

[JIBBBY]

Meersch by sub next for me.

[Demonata]

Cash it easy money

Good call buddy!

[Kermit]

Meersch by sub next for me.

Same.

[FlaxMartin]

Meersch by sub next for me.

I have him to finish at +100.

[Sanity Check]

[JIBBBY]

^^ Lol a few weight misses on this card.. Lazy fat bastards!!

[Demonata]

Tbh I don't mind heavyweights not making weight.