1. 10-07-21 03:20 PM #1
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Update.... Math/Sci guy trying to crack the code... NFL NCAAF

    My results early NFL were great but obviously the games were minimal. Last weekend, I was 8-8... assuming I take the win for the Giants under because they didn't cover in regulation and there was a small glitch on the Buffalo game. It had them winning 39-3 but didn't say to bet it. They won 40-0 so I was close. That was computer error.

    NCAAF has been more difficult. I am trying to spread the bets and decrease the risk while maintaining a decent return. The first few weeks were between 46-52%, but week 5 was my trial because I feel I had enough data. NCAAF was 56.86% plus it had 4 out of 9 ML bets. My guess since I didn't download the ML percentages, it may have touched 60%. Nonetheless, it is only one week of success.

    I am not asking for anything . However, if you see a bet that doesn't make sense... tell me and I will look into the data and try to see if it is an anomaly ... your wrong ... or my system is wrong..
    NFL
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE PROJECTED TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    8:20 PM LAR 30 SEA 17 47 2.5 54 Away Minus Under
    9:30 AM NYJ 17 ATL 22 39 -3 45 Too Close Under
    1:00 PM MIA 14 TAM 37 51 -10 48 Home Minus Too Close
    1:00 PM PHI 17 CAR 28 45 -3 45 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM NEW 27 WAS 15 42 1 43.5 Away Minus Too Close
    1:00 PM TEN 35 JAC 17 52 4.5 48.5 Away Minus Too Close
    1:00 PM DET 22 MIN 33 55 -9.5 49.5 Too Close Over
    1:00 PM DEN 20 PIT 13 33 0 40 Too Close Under
    1:00 PM GRE 17 CIN 11 28 3 51 Away Minus Under
    1:00 PM NEW 28 HOU 2 30 9 39.5 Away Minus Under
    4:05 PM CHI 11 LAS 29 40 -5.5 44 Home Minus Under
    4:05 PM CLE 27 LAC 20 47 -1 47.5 Too Close Too Close
    4:25 PM NYG 21 DAL 32 53 -7.5 52 Too Close Too Close
    4:25 PM SAN 23 ARI 31 54 -5 49.5 Too Close Over
    8:20 PM BUF 38 KAN 21 59 -3 56.5 Away Plus Too Close
    8:15 PM IND 18 BAL 26 44 -7 46 Too Close Too Close

    NCAAF
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:30 PM HOU 40 TUL 21 61 5.5 60.5 Away Minus Too Close
    7:30 PM COA 53 ARK 20 73 17.5 69.5 Away Minus Too Close
    7:00 PM TEM 10 CIN 33 43 -28.5 52.5 Too Close Under
    7:00 PM CHA 40 FLA 24 64 3.5 58.5 Away Minus Too Close
    10:30 PM STA 12 ARI 29 41 -10.5 52 Too Close Under
    12:00 PM MIC 29 RUT 26 55 5 49.5 Home Plus Too Close
    12:00 PM MAR 28 OHI 38 66 -20.5 67.5 Away Plus Too Close
    12:00 PM AKR 15 BOW 31 46 -13 45 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM NIL 16 TOL 33 49 -12.5 54.5 Too Close Under
    12:00 PM GEO 31 DUK 34 65 3 59.5 Home Plus Too Close
    12:00 PM SCA 15 TEN 33 48 -9.5 52.5 Too Close Under
    12:00 PM WVI 15 BAY 27 42 -3 43.5 Home Minus Too Close
    12:00 PM VAN 8 FLO 52 60 -39 58.5 Home Minus Too Close
    12:00 PM OKL 35 TEX 27 62 3 63.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM ARK 22 OLE 38 60 -6.5 65.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM OLD 25 MAR 45 70 -20 62 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM VIR 43 LOU 35 78 -2.5 66.5 Away ML Too Close
    3:30 PM FLO 22 NCA 41 63 -17 63.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM CON 33 MAS 20 53 2.5 55.5 Too Close Under
    3:30 PM WAK 33 SYR 19 52 7 57 Away Minus Under
    3:30 PM BAL 15 WMI 36 51 -11 56.5 Too Close Under
    3:30 PM MID 10 LIB 36 46 -19.5 57.5 Home Minus Under
    3:30 PM BOI 28 BYU 27 55 -5 55 Away Plus Too Close
    3:30 PM SAN 20 COL 28 48 -1 45.5 Home Minus Too Close
    3:30 PM SMU 48 NAV 22 70 14 56 Too Close Over
    3:30 PM GEO 29 AUB 18 47 14.5 45 Home Plus Too Close
    3:30 PM FLA 33 UAB 20 53 -5.5 49 Away ML Too Close
    3:30 PM WIS 32 ILL 17 49 8.5 43 Away Minus Too Close
    3:30 PM MIA 23 EMI 26 49 1 56.5 Home Plus Under
    3:30 PM CMI 44 OHI 16 60 5.5 55 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM ORE 32 WAS 21 53 3.5 59 Away Minus Under
    4:00 PM NOR 37 MIS 43 80 -20 66.5 Away Plus Too Close
    4:00 PM PEN 20 IOW 18 38 -3 42 Too Close Under
    6:00 PM ECA 31 UCF 45 76 -10 67.5 Home Minus Too Close
    7:00 PM BUF 30 KEN 32 62 -5 62 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM WYO 19 AIR 35 54 -4 48 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM TCU 33 TEX 26 59 1.5 61.5 Away Minus Under
    7:00 PM SAL 33 TEX 18 51 3 53.5 Away Minus Too Close
    7:00 PM GAS 19 TRO 31 50 -4.5 51 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM UTE 23 SOU 15 38 -1 45.5 Away ML Under
    7:00 PM UTS 42 WKE 31 73 -3 68 Away ML Too Close
    7:30 PM LSU 22 KEN 22 44 -3 52.5 Away Plus Under
    7:30 PM MIC 25 NEB 25 50 3.5 51 Home Plus Too Close
    7:30 PM NOT 25 VIR 19 44 1.5 46.5 Too Close Under
    8:00 PM UTA 25 USC 29 54 -3 51 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM GEO 31 LAM 12 43 14.5 52 Away Minus Under
    8:00 PM ALA 35 TEX 11 46 18 51.5 Away Minus Too Close
    9:00 PM MEM 36 TUL 35 71 -3.5 61.5 Away Plus Too Close
    9:00 PM NEW 9 SAN 31 40 -19 43.5 Too Close Under
    10:30 PM UCL 37 ARI 23 60 16.5 61.5 Home Plus Too Close
    10:30 PM NEW 18 NEV 45 63 -32.5 61 Away Plus Too Close

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iwy...ew?usp=sharing

    Link to app... only for droids. Any feedback appreciated.
    Last edited by usma1992; 10-07-21 at 03:25 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    PaperTrail07 gave usma1992 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 10-07-21 03:21 PM #2
    SEAHAWKHARRY
    Northern Lights
    SEAHAWKHARRY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-29-07
    Posts: 26,068
    Betpoints: 2385

    I am watching closely thanks for shar8ng
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 10-07-21 03:48 PM #3
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Any feedback appreciated.

    Dave
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 10-07-21 03:52 PM #4
    stake1
    stake1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-19-18
    Posts: 18,013
    Betpoints: 2438

    I have the Seahawks winning outright as the short home dog. Like the under too
    Thanks for sharing your spreadsheet
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 10-07-21 03:55 PM #5
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    interesting stuff here
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 10-07-21 03:59 PM #6
    romecloneout
    romecloneout's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-11
    Posts: 2,243
    Betpoints: 489

    What is determining what is a play or not?

    There are games where your projections are identical to a line and it triggers a play and other games where your projections are beating the line by 7 or 8 pts and it says too close?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 10-07-21 04:13 PM #7
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Any feedback appreciated.
    Dave
    Actually Dave, I do have suggestion for you and it's something you might toy with. What you appear to be dealing with here are raw numbers, and I'm not sure if you end up with decimals but I'm guessing you do and then you round to get a whole number. After all, you can't score a fraction of a point in football.

    But I would suggest going a step further BEFORE you compare your lines to the market.

    For example, you have Washington scoring 15 points. In more than 4000 NFL games going back more than 20 years, a team scored 15 points 98 teams, about .9% of the time.

    But when it comes to an individual team scoring 14 points, it happened 423 times, just under 4%. But what about 16 points? That happened 382 times, or just over 3.5% of the time.

    Yet you are asking then to score 15 points. See what I'm saying here?

    In football different numbers truly do have differnt values and it makes a difference.

    Look at Houston in your predictions. You have them scoring 2 points. That happened, over those same 4000+ games over more than than 20 years, exactly once.

    But a team scored 3 points 244 times and 0 points, for example, 149 times, that's roughly 2.25% and 1.37% respectively. But let's thing about it. Are you predicting Houston to score at all? Maybe just a FG? A TD? One score? What about 2 Field goals?

    My point with those question is that even if you figure one score, a 7 point or even 6 point individual score could be in the cards, and they tend to come more often. Maybe not exactly in this instance, but I want to bring up that additional point just top off what I'm saying.

    You have to play around with it but it's possible that converting your raw scores to a more likely football score BEFORE comparing it to the market could benefit you here.

    Good Luck.

    Points Awarded:

    semibluff gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 10-07-21 04:15 PM #8
    Eddy Munny
    Eddy Munny's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-13-13
    Posts: 14,577
    Betpoints: 24921

    Permission to fade, captain?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 10-07-21 04:23 PM #9
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Thank you and I understand and agree with your opinion. Ironically, week 2 it nailed NE game 25-6, lol. I don't really care about the final score persay. My system is merely teling you what they are likely to score. If I have 2 and you feel it is 3 because it is a field goal so be it.

    Thank you for feedback. I can't predict it down to the number every time... but I will look at change somethings potentially.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 10-07-21 04:25 PM #10
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    No offense Eddy... what does that even mean or am I wasting my time even asking.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 10-07-21 04:26 PM #11
    Darkside Magick
    Black Box Algorithm
    Darkside Magick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-28-10
    Posts: 12,586
    Betpoints: 1258

    My 2 pennies


    Classical Computer systems is really over... Everything is Quantum now

    One is better off using a box systen (Black.. Grey.. White)

    Is the scores the median or the mean?

    Is bayes theorem use in the numbers?

    Was monte carlo simulations used and how many?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 10-07-21 04:29 PM #12
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    stake1 ... Good Luck ... I hope they do. I am not betting against any one game or one person. I am trying to create a program that it statisically based and can compete with vegas. Ironically, I am using their information against them. I am not sure I am going to win. But this year when I lose I lose minimal ... when I win I win decent. My system will never hit 100% but it should hit below 40% either.

    Dave
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 10-07-21 04:30 PM #13
    johnnyvegas13
    johnnyvegas13's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-21-15
    Posts: 26,179
    Betpoints: 235

    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    No offense Eddy... what does that even mean or am I wasting my time even asking.
    He is just trolling u

    that all he does

    besides post terrible badger fades
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 10-07-21 04:36 PM #14
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Darkside...

    Appreciate the feedback...

    I understand where you are going with Median vs Mean comment especially in college football.

    Bayes theorem... I don't use.

    I am not using monte carlo simulations. I have data from 2012 on and I am testing my results based on that. The sample size depends on the sport since I have college basketball, NBA, college football, and NFL.

    Again, I appreciate the feedback. I will need it.


    Dave
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 10-07-21 04:39 PM #15
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Thank you and I understand and agree with your opinion. Ironically, week 2 it nailed NE game 25-6, lol. I don't really care about the final score persay. My system is merely teling you what they are likely to score. If I have 2 and you feel it is 3 because it is a field goal so be it.

    Thank you for feedback. I can't predict it down to the number every time... but I will look at change somethings potentially.
    One of the main points there too is that you are looking for a certain distance to trigger a bet, hopefully, since it's football, you aren't just treating every number the same.

    I see in the DEN 20 - Pitt 13 prediction, a 7 point discrepency to the 0 line offered, you have the spread bet too close. Why, what is the criteria used to decide that?

    How many point are you looking for before a bet triggers?

    But that's not a good question, the better question is how many and which key numbers are you trying to capture with that discrepency between you and the market?

    If the market has Denver and Pitt a pickem, and you have Denver Winning by 7, a strong case can be made for a Denver bet there. After all, you are capturing 5 of 8 of the most common margins of victory there, not including the push of 7.

    Are you accounting for the unique way in which NFL is scored when you determine whether a line is "too close" to make a bet?
    Points Awarded:

    semibluff gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Darkside Magick
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 1
  16. 10-07-21 05:06 PM #16
    Eddy Munny
    Eddy Munny's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-13-13
    Posts: 14,577
    Betpoints: 24921

    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    He is just trolling u

    that all he does

    besides post terrible badger fades
    Oh hush, you brokedikk air betting clownhat.

    I posted four consecutive winners since then.

    You just gravitate towards the losers because that's all you know. That's "home" to you.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 10-07-21 05:09 PM #17
    KiDBaZkiT
    September 2021 POTM
    KiDBaZkiT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-09
    Posts: 14,962
    Betpoints: 1291

    God damn, shit looks technical af, glad I can just use good ole fashion street smarts to pick the winners.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 10-07-21 05:16 PM #18
    Runeblade
    Runeblade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-29-17
    Posts: 2,579
    Betpoints: 205

    This is good stuff. Thank you for sharing and good luck tonight.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 10-08-21 04:16 AM #19
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    4-0 to start the weekend... not a bad start. Close to calling Ram score I had 30-17... final 26-17.

    Not a bad start. Oh... Coastal Carolina... projected total... 53-20... final score 52-20. Are u kidding me.... booyah!!!!!

    Dave
    Last edited by usma1992; 10-08-21 at 04:24 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 10-08-21 04:35 AM #20
    Tuesday
    Whores...God Bless 'Em
    Tuesday's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-11
    Posts: 3,706
    Betpoints: 4061

    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    4-0 to start the weekend... not a bad start. Close to calling Ram score I had 30-17... final 26-17.

    Not a bad start. Oh... Coastal Carolina... projected total... 53-20... final score 52-20. Are u kidding me.... booyah!!!!!

    Dave
    Very impressive, especially getting the scores so close
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 10-08-21 04:41 AM #21
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Forgot Houston game... I predicted 40-22... it came in 40-21. Insane.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 10-08-21 05:23 AM #22
    vivablu
    vivablu's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-21
    Posts: 129
    Betpoints: 536

    Syracause number is way off. I see them winning them out right.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 10-08-21 06:49 AM #23
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Rams
    Proj 30-17
    Act 26-17

    Coastal
    Proj 53-20
    Act 52-20

    Houston
    Proj 40-22
    Act 40-21

    I was with 6 pts... of not just predicting winners... of predicting scores perfectly for all three games.

    Insane...

    This can't be just luck. Can it?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 10-08-21 07:28 AM #24
    Black Coffee
    Black Coffee's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-04-19
    Posts: 1,187
    Betpoints: 2360

    Cool stuff. Good luck!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 10-08-21 07:33 PM #25
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    May go 6-0 into Sat... which would be nice.

    Lucky, but nice. Somehow I'd feel better 5-1.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 10-08-21 09:43 PM #26
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Looks like 5-1. Not staying up for Stanford game. My 1 loss was by 2.5 pts... O/U Cincy.

    They had turnovers and huge TD plays. Think bet was right.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 10-09-21 08:12 AM #27
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    6-1 going into weekend.

    Dave
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 10-09-21 08:55 AM #28
    Roger T. Bannon
    Roger T. Bannon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-28-18
    Posts: 5,139
    Betpoints: 11760

    The numbers hit the broad side of a barn. There is some stuff that I would say is way off so I would guess you will not win but you may be right.

    Pretty strange that you do not have Air Force as a bet. With that kind of a projection I don't know how you can have a winning system and that not be not only a bet but a big one.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 10-09-21 08:57 AM #29
    JacketFan81
    GO GEORGIA TECH!
    JacketFan81's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-28-17
    Posts: 1,747
    Betpoints: 3920

    If your numbers are radically different than the Vegas numbers all the time, it won't work out well
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 10-09-21 09:10 AM #30
    SamsNCharge99
    5x POTM. 2x Video maker of the year
    SamsNCharge99's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-22-08
    Posts: 41,242
    Betpoints: 6404

    so far so good, good luck today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 10-09-21 09:11 AM #31
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    My system eliminates games based on certain combinations. The projected score is just the first filter.

    Dave
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 10-09-21 09:13 AM #32
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-11
    Posts: 874
    Betpoints: 2268

    Since my scores are coming in so tight... I'm thinking about doing reverse parlay.

    Dave
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 10-09-21 09:20 AM #33
    Roger T. Bannon
    Roger T. Bannon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-28-18
    Posts: 5,139
    Betpoints: 11760

    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    My system eliminates games based on certain combinations. The projected score is just the first filter.

    Dave
    Hmmm. That is a deep dive. What would be one example without giving away the jackpot?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 10-09-21 09:27 AM #34
    Lineman
    Lineman's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-21-09
    Posts: 2,475
    Betpoints: 27389

    wow....that's all I can say so far.....

    Time to short DraftKings yet?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 10-09-21 09:40 AM #35
    JohnGalt2341
    46 and 2 are just ahead of me
    JohnGalt2341's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-31-09
    Posts: 8,764
    Betpoints: 3691

    Quote Originally Posted by romecloneout View Post
    What is determining what is a play or not?

    There are games where your projections are identical to a line and it triggers a play and other games where your projections are beating the line by 7 or 8 pts and it says too close?
    This is what I am wondering as well. There's one between, it looks like North Texas and Missouri. His projected total is 80. The Vegas Over/Under says 66.5 and his O/U Bet says "Too Close". But for Connecticut and Massachusetts his projected total is 53 which is only 2.5 points less than the Vegas total of 55.5 and he's betting Under for that one. It's the same thing for a couple of others as well including the TCU and Texas Tech game, as well as the Notre Dame and Virginia Tech game. Both with a 2.5 difference, both with Under bets. But the 13.5 difference was "Too Close". I'm just trying to figure out the math here.

    I'm guessing by the looks of it, that his system is VERY SHY to bet Overs. 14 points must be the threshold to bet an Over, for college football at least.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »