[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 9:00 pm ET
Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Chris Daukaus
Cheyanne Buys vs. Gloria de Paula
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya
Sam Alvey vs. Roman Kopylov
Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Mounir Lazzez vs. Niklas Stolze
Nicco Montano vs. ** Yanan
Collin Anglin vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan
Rafa Garcia vs. Chris Gruetzemacher
Danny Chavez vs. Kai Kamaka
Jinh Yu Frey vs. Ashley Yoder
Trevin Jones vs. Ronnie Lawrence
Orion Cosce vs. Phillip Rowe
Zarrukh Adashev vs. Ryan Benoit

[frankieunits2685]

Chris Daukaus and Shamil Abdurakhimov has been removed from Saturday's card and will be rescheduled

[frankieunits2685]

Alvey vs. Kopylov is off as well.

[frankieunits2685]

Mounir Lazzez vs. Niklas Stolze has been scratched. Down to 13 fights total.

[Demonata]

Dropping like flies

[JIBBBY]

You gotta go with Strickland in the main I think. The Odds are tough to swallow. Maybe Strickland ITD prop for better odds.

[SEKTAUR]

You gotta go with Strickland in the main I think. The Odds are tough to swallow. Maybe Strickland ITD prop for better odds.

What happened to always bet on black?!

[freelee]

What happened to always bet on black?!

His strategy is to always bet on black except when he thinks the other guy will win

[freelee]

You gotta go with Strickland in the main I think. The Odds are tough to swallow. Maybe Strickland ITD prop for better odds.

Just looked it up you're correct you can get better odds on Strickland ITD vs Strickland straight

[Sanity Check]

[JIBBBY]

Prelims MMA MANIA -






115 lbs.: Jinh Yu Frey vs. Ashley Yoder

Jinh Yu Frey (10-6) — the former Invicta Atomweight champion — stumbled out of the UFC gate with consecutive losses to Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee. With her back against the wall, she managed to survive some rough spots to beat Gloria de Paula in March 2021.
She is the shorter woman by four inches and gives up as much reach.
Ashley Yoder (8-7) snapped a three-fight skid with consecutive decisions over Amanda Cooper and Syuri Kondo, only to lose her next two. She managed to get back on track by beating Miranda Granger, but once again fell short against old rival Angela Hill in March 2021.
“The Spider Monkey” has scored four submissions as a professional, though none since 2016.
This isn’t what you’d call a prediction-friendly fight. If both women fight at their best, Frey’s definitely got the edge, as Yoder’s wrestling and striking have yet to catch up to her jiu-jitsu game. The thing is, Frey never fights to the best of her abilities; she’s one of the most self-destructively passive fighters I’ve ever seen in the sport, often failing to do even the bare minimum to sway the judges.
Yoder’s got a real chance to win this by simply doing more than Frey. Even if her takedowns fail and her strikes don’t find their mark, she’ll at least be making an effort, which is more than you can say about Frey. On the other hand, Frey’s left hand by itself is more potent than Yoder’s entire stand up arsenal and she’s not too shabby a wrestler herself. Combine that with a history of winning razor-thin decisions and I say Frey ekes it out.
Prediction: Frey via split decision
Related
Up Next! Strickland Earns ‘Prime Time’ Spot On ESPN!

135 lbs.: Ronnie Lawrence vs. Trevin Jones

Though he failed to find the finish in his “Contender Series” bout with Jose Johnson, Ronnie Lawrence’s (7-1) wrestling clinic impressed Dana White enough to earn him a contract anyway. “The Heat” rewarded this faith by routing Vince Cachero in his “Performance of the Night”-winning UFC debut.
He’s ended four professional fights with strikes.
Trevin Jones (13-6) authored one of 2020’s biggest upsets by knocking out top prospect Timur Valiev, only for a failed drug test to turn it into a “No Contest.” Undaunted, he got in the UFC win column proper with another impressive knockout against Mario Bautista in Feb. 2021.
He was previously slated to face Tony Kelley last Saturday, but now steps in for John Castaneda.
It’s hard to figure out exactly how good Jones is — he was losing both of his UFC fights before he, well, wasn’t. No such ambiguity exists for Lawrence, whose excellent wrestling makes him stand out in a division absolutely choked with talent. That said, Valiev is also enormously talented and we all saw how that worked out for him.
That’s really the long and short of it. Lawrence will dominate on the mat and is skilled enough with his in-and-out striking to hold his own on the feet. Jones needs to find that one-hitter quitter again, which is admittedly more feasible than it sounds. Still, expect Lawrence to put the pace on him and wrestle his way to another Octagon victory.
Prediction: Lawrence via unanimous decision
Related
Midnight Mania! Stickland Slams ‘Suga’ For 6ix9ine Ink

170 lbs.: Philip Rowe vs. Orion Cosce

Philip Rowe (7-3) rode a six-fight win streak into his 2019 turn on “Contender Series,” where he battered the favored Leon Shahbazyan into submission to earn a spot in the Octagon. A series of cancelations pushed his debut back until Feb. 2021, when he dropped a decision to Gabe Green for his first loss since 2015.
“The Fresh Prince” stands four inches taller than Orion Cosce (7-0) and boasts a nine-inch reach advantage.
Less than two years after his professional debut, Cosce found his way onto “Contender Series” against blue-chip prospect Matt Dixon. After struggling with his foe’s wrestling in the early going, Cosce’s pressure turned the tide and secured him both a last-second finish and a UFC contract.
He’s knocked out six foes and submitted one other.
While the 27-year-old Cosce is far from a finished product, he’s perfectly equipped to win this. Rowe’s massive height and reach advantages are offset by his vulnerability to pressure, which the hard-charging Cosce is more than happy to exploit. To make matters worse for Rowe, Cosce’s too adept a wrestler for Rowe to bail himself out of bad spots with takedowns like he did against Green.
Don’t expect the sort of critical cardio failure that sank his brother Louis, either — “Galaxy” is more than capable of going three hard rounds. Even if the early finish isn’t there for Cosce, he’ll be in Rowe’s face and testing his chin all night. In short, attrition and toughness carry him to a dominant debut victory.
Prediction: Cosce via unanimous decision




135 lbs.: Nicco Montano vs. ** Yanan

An impressive underdog run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 culminated in a UFC debut against veteran Roxanne Modafferi, whom Nicco Montano (4-3) out-classed over five rounds to become UFC’s inaugural Flyweight champion. She’s managed just one appearance since, a unanimous decision loss to Julianna Pena in Sacramento.
This marks her first fight in two years and her second since 2017.
Almost exactly one year after her UFC debut loss to Gina Mazany, ** Yanan (11-4) spoiled Lauren Mueller’s inaugural Octagon appearance with a nasty armbar off of her back. “Mulan” has yet to taste victory since, dropping decisions to Mizuki Inoue and Joselyne Edwards.
This match up is essentially a referendum on what Montano’s got left in the tank. If she can reclaim the form that saw her out-wrestle Pena in the early going, that’s more than sufficient to win the day against **, who found herself in several bad spots on the ground against a striking specialist in Edwards. That’s far from a given, of course. That’s because Montano has dealt with injuries, COVID and a whole heap of rust, meaning **’s raw aggression could pay dividends if Montano can’t handle that sort of pace anymore.
Even taking that into consideration, Montano’s just too good a grappler for me to pick the consistently underwhelming **. So long as her myriad maladies haven’t totally wrecked her abilities, Montano leans on her wrestling to re-enter the win column.
Prediction: Montano via unanimous decision
Related
Hall Vs. Strickland Will Now Headline UFC’s July 31 Event

145 lbs.: Collin Anglin vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Unbeaten since his second professional bout, Collin Anglin (8-1) entered “Contender Series” on the heels of four consecutive knockout victories. Once there, he defied greater than +250 odds to break down ace striker Muhammadjon Naimov and punch his ticket to UFC.
He’ll enjoy a one-inch height advantage over “The Gun.”
After cutting his teeth on the Eastern kickboxing scene and dabbling in professional boxing, Melsik Baghdasaryan (5-1) returned to mixed martial arts (MMA) with four straight first-round knockouts. He couldn’t make it five against Dennis Buzukja on “Contender Series,” but did manage to walk away with a contract after an entertaining decision win.
Those four knockouts took him a combined 62 seconds.
It’s not often you see a 50/50 fight where one of the participants will almost assuredly spend the first round getting the beating of a lifetime. Baghdasaryan boasts serious power and is skilled enough on the feet to nearly defeat K-1 champ Yuta Kubo, which bodes ill for a striker as defensively porous as Anglin. That said, Anglin did manage to weather everything Naimov hit him with and take over late, while Baghdasaryan visibly slowed after battering Buzukja early. There’s a very real possibility of Anglin — with all due respect to his legitimate skills — Homer Simpson-ing his way to victory.
With that learning experience against Buzukja behind him, though, I like Baghdasaryan to pace himself better and just steadily out-class Anglin instead of trying to take his head off from the get-go. Baghdasaryan also has better defensive grappling than Naimov, so I don’t see Anglin grinding out “The Gun” unless Baghdasaryan totally empties his gas tank. In the end, Baghdasaryan sprawls-and-brawls his way to a dominant decision.
Prediction: Baghdasaryan via unanimous decision
Related
WHAT THE F—K?!? ‘Why Bro, Why?’

155 lbs.: Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia

Reeling from consecutive submission losses to Chas Skelly and Davi Ramos, Chris Gruetzemacher (14-4) evened up his UFC record with a bonus-winning beating of Joe Lauzon. Injury then kept him out of action for 30 months, after which he got clobbered by Alexander Hernandez upon his return.
“Gritz” stands one inch taller than Rafa Garcia (12-1) at 5’8.”
Mexicali’s “Gifted” cut his teeth under the Combate banner, winning eight fights and claiming the Lightweight title in the process. His efforts ultimately led to a late-notice UFC debut against Nasrat Haqparast, who outstruck Garcia over three rounds to claim a unanimous decision.
He has tapped seven professional foes and knocked out one other.
Gruetzemacher had better hope that the Hernandez debacle was a product of ring rust, because that was more than a little concerning. He’s never been what you’d call a defensive wizard, but “The Great” hit him with practically every punch he threw. While Garcia’s hands aren’t quite as quick or heavy as Hernandez’s, he’s more than capable of demolishing a stationary target.
That said, Garcia has the goods to beat even a fully functional Gruetzemacher. He’s the better overall striker and has plenty of experience in grueling slogs, making it sorely unlikely that Gruetzemacher can break him the way he did Lauzon. Unless Gruetzemacher can spend minutes at a time on top, Garcia keeps it on the feet and boxes him up for a comfortable win.
Prediction: Garcia via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Vegas 33 Poster For ‘Hall Vs Strickland’

145 lbs.: Danny Chavez vs. Kai Kamaka III

Just one month after ending a nearly two-year layoff, Danny Chavez (11-4) stepped up on short notice to face “Contender Series” graduate T.J. Brown, tearing up “Downtown’s” lead leg en route to a unanimous decision victory. He couldn’t do the same against Jared Gordon, who used pressure and top control to neutralize “The Colombian Warrior.”
He’s ended three professional fights via knockout.
Kai Kamaka III (8-4) lived up to the hype in his last-minute UFC debut, which saw him outlast Tony Kelley over three rounds to claim Fight of the night. Subsequent efforts proved less successful, as he tapped to a Jonathan Pearce RNC and lost a controversial decision to T.J. Brown.
He gives up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Chavez.
Odds-wise, this is the closest fight on the card, and I’m inclined to agree with the bookies’ assessment. This is a flat-out dead heat between two men with the tools to exploit the other’s lingering weaknesses. Chavez’s straight punches and raw power are a real problem for Kamaka’s stationary chin, while Kamaka offers the heavy leg kicks and aggressive wrestling that Gordon used to great effect.
Though he let me down against Pearce, I’ve got Kamaka by a hair. Chavez is too willing to cede ground and too ineffective off of his back for my linking, and Kamaka’s at least got the durability to survive the punches his leaky defense lets through. In the end, Kamaka grits out a razor-thin decision on the strength of his top control.
Prediction: Kamaka via split decision

[JIBBBY]

Main -


Women’s Strawweight: Cheyanne Buys vs. Gloria de Paula

Best Win for Buys? Hilarie Rose For de Paula? Pauline Macias
Current Streak: Both women lost their last bout
X-Factor: The general inexperience of both women
How these two match up: Without trying to be a hater, this analysis should be Patrick Stumberg’s problem on the undercard.
At any rate, both “Contender’s Series” pickups are looking to score their first UFC win. Buys debuted with a reputation as a kickboxer who could also wrestle well ... before Montserrat Ruiz head-and-arm throwed her for 15 straight minutes. De Paula also struggled with her opponent’s wrestling in her debut, but the Chute Boxe-trained athlete showed some nice kickboxing of her own.
Let’s be honest here, this is a low-level match up, and those are hard to predict. At any point, one of these woman could throw up a sudden armbar and end the fight from her back ... it’s that type of bout. On the more positive side, either young athlete could have developed considerably since her last performance.
Still, based on what we’ve seen thus far, it’s easier to side with Buys. Her performance on “Contender’s Series” inspired some hype for good reason: she has some kickboxing chops and solid physicality for the Strawweight division. Against a less determined wrestler, Buys should rack up the volume and perhaps even land a takedown of her own.
Prediction: Buys via decision
Related
WHAT THE F—K?!? ‘Why Bro, Why?’

---

Bantamweight: Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya

Best Win for Kang? Michinori Tanaka For Yahya? Mike Brown
Current Streak: Kang has won three in a row, while Yahya is unbeaten in his last two
X-Factor: Yahya is older for a Bantamweight (36 years of age) and has been fighting since 2002
How these two match up: Grappler’s delight!
Kang has been on the sidelines since Dec. 2019, but it’s great to have “Mr. Perfect” back. Kang is one of those fun wrestlers that doesn’t just content himself to control opponents. Instead, he constantly forces scrambles, hoping to advance passed the guard and create opportunities for submissions.
With Demian Maia on his way out, is Yahya the last older jiu-jitsu guy still wrangling tough opposition? Yahya is pretty single-minded in his pursuit of the takedown, at which point his top pressure and strangles are really top-notch.
I don’t know how much Yahya has left in the tank. He’s long in the tooth, and it’s been some years since he defeated a ranked foe. Much like Maia, Yahya is a liability in the second half of fights, even if he’s getting the grappling match he desires.
Unfortunately, I am a man who picks fights largely based on style match ups, and it is impossible to ignore how perfect this fight is for Yahya! Kang may be the better striker, but he cannot help himself to leap into fire on the mat. Yahya has the skills to secure dominant positions, and if the submission doesn’t emerge, he’ll rack up long periods of time controlling his foe.
Prediction: Yahya via decision
Related
Predictions! UFC Vegas 33 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

Predictions! UFC Vegas 33 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

---

Flyweight.: Ryan Benoit vs. Zarrukh Adashev

Best Win for Benoit? Sergio Pettis For Adashev? Tevin Dyce
Current Streak: Both men have lost their last two bouts
X-Factor: Benoit’s weight cut woes
How these two match up: This analysis ACTUALLY does come courtesy of Stumberg, who wrote the following prior to this bout being moved to the main card:
These two were supposed to fight in May, but Benoit borked his weight cut. My thoughts on the match up haven’t changed in the last two months, so let’s just use what we’ve got ...
Ryan Benoit (10-7) began his UFC career by alternating losses and wins, amassing a 3-3 record and taking home a post-fight bonus for his debut bout with Josh Sampo. “Baby Face” has since dropped two straight, losing decisions to Alatengheili and Tim Elliott.
His nine professional finishes include eight by form of knockout.
Though he fell in his mixed martial arts (MMA) debut, former kickboxer Zarrukh Adashev (3-3) went on to win three straight under the Bellator banner, two of them inside the distance. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon itself, though, falling short against knockout artists Tyson Nam and Sumudaerji.
He gives up 3.5 inches of reach to Benoit.
Losing to the likes of Nam and Sumudaerji is nothing to be ashamed of, and now that he’s fighting someone closer to his own height, I expect a much better showing from Adashev. Though Benoit has serious power, his standup never quite developed enough to properly deliver it, and his offensive wrestling isn’t particularly potent.
Adashev has Benoit out-classed in a pure striking battle, which Benoit’s underdeveloped takedown game is insufficient to prevent. In short, a fast-paced slugfest sees Adashev land the cleaner, more telling blows to seal the deal.
Prediction: Adashev via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Vegas 33 Poster For ‘Hall Vs Strickland’

---

Welterweight: Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt

Best Win for Barberena? Warlley Alves For Witt? Cole Williams
Current Streak: Barberena returned to the win column last time out, whereas Witt came up short.
X-Factor: Can Witt force the takedown?
How these two match up: Striker vs. grappler!
Okay, describing Barberena as a pure striker would be underselling him a bit. “Bam Bam” is a tough as nails scrapper, a man who thrives in ugly fights where both athletes are landing heavy shots. Witt, meanwhile, is a pretty clear-cut submission fighter, having tapped out eight of his past opponents.
“The Vanilla Gorilla” has a chance here; Barberena has been ground out before. However, those defeats came to elite grinders like Colby Covington and Leon Edwards, and Witt has yet to prove himself near that level. Plus, Barberena still managed to land some quality shots in those defeats, and Witt’s durability is in question after two quick knockout losses in three trips to the Octagon.
Barberena is the more proven and more powerful man, and he’s likely to punish his foe’s attempts to take him down.
Prediction: Barberena via knockout

[Sanity Check]

LeMartin picks

Buys -158
Strickland by TKO or DQ +175

[sosawestbrook]

bets:

Ronnie Lawrence -150
GDP +145
GDP points/Kamaka points/Strickland points parlay +2500

props:

Melsik murder r1 +450 / Anglin r3 +1600 *split*
Lawrence r3 +1400

[sosawestbrook]

Lawrence-Jones off

damn

[Demonata]

So many cancellations!

[KnuckleHeadz]

Jinh Yu Frey!!

[hankcream]

This card is a real shitfest but hopefully theres $ to be made:
1 unit Rowe +145
2.6 units Benoit -130
10 units Garcia -285 (hate the juice but I think it should be at least -600, I think Grutz is shot and Garcia trains with Gathje daily)
.5 units Witt +220
.75 units Gordon +150
1.1 unit Kang -110
.6 units Hall +180

3.3 units AJ McKee -110

BOL luck everyone

[Demonata]

[Brandt Moat]

I know Nunes is a tough chick. But, If ya got a look at her post fight after her clam mechanic friend lost to whoever(can't remember and not important). Amanda was a complete Fat Ars! She has been living large and getting large. If she faces somebody with some real gas and able to last a few, she can be in trouble. Keep an I eye on the Slit Lickn Champion of the world. The Tuna can might be exposed??? Not sure what I meant. lol Fade her for some heavy +$. Smokin up on a Sat. I'm laying off after Maverick fight loss.Won with Dilly though. A lot different type of fight to judge then the 2 women. I see the ring generalship, active aggression and a name that will bring more doe?? Maybe that isn't a category. GL

[frankieunits2685]

I know Nunes is a tough chick. But, If ya got a look at her post fight after her clam mechanic friend lost to whoever(can't remember and not important). Amanda was a complete Fat Ars! She has been living large and getting large. If she faces somebody with some real gas and able to last a few, she can be in trouble. Keep an I eye on the Slit Lickn Champion of the world. The Tuna can might be exposed??? Not sure what I meant. lol Fade her for some heavy +$. Smokin up on a Sat. I'm laying off after Maverick fight loss.Won with Dilly though. A lot different type of fight to judge then the 2 women. I see the ring generalship, active aggression and a name that will bring more doe?? Maybe that isn't a category. GL

What language is this?

[Brandt Moat]

Fundamentals of advanced English with a bit of street mixed with some peanut butter and jelly smoke I got yesterday(love it!) with a hint of Gary Peyton's strain. You can't quite understand it unless you are with it.

What language is this?

[hankcream]

I know Nunes is a tough chick. But, If ya got a look at her post fight after her clam mechanic friend lost to whoever(can't remember and not important). Amanda was a complete Fat Ars! She has been living large and getting large. If she faces somebody with some real gas and able to last a few, she can be in trouble. Keep an I eye on the Slit Lickn Champion of the world. The Tuna can might be exposed??? Not sure what I meant. lol Fade her for some heavy +$. Smokin up on a Sat. I'm laying off after Maverick fight loss.Won with Dilly though. A lot different type of fight to judge then the 2 women. I see the ring generalship, active aggression and a name that will bring more doe?? Maybe that isn't a category. GL

Damn Brant, you must have found a really good strain.
You may be correct on Amanda- she probably couldn’t make the weight for next weekend & came up with the COVID excuse so she could pull out of the fight. I’m hoping Dana can sign Kayla Harrison- I might actually look forward to a women’s fight between her and Nunes

[Brandt Moat]

I'm just going on what I seen. Fighters put weight on but she was really fat. Not a good thing to do when you are young and have a future in front of you. She is eating her way out of the belt! Might need to break out the screwdriver and add a hole. Check it out though.

[Brandt Moat]

Kayla needs a few UFC fights before hand. To get comfortable and season a bit more. She has the attitude to be champion.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN 28: Strickland vs. Hall Picks:
Orion Cosce Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Ryan Benoit Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jinh Yu Frey Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Danny Chavez Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Rafa Garcia Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Bryan Barberena Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Collin Anglin Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Niklas Stolze Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Cheyanne Buys Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Sean Strickland Round 2 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN 28: Strickland vs. Hall

ESPN Prelims:

Fight #1: O. Cosce (DEBUT) vs. Rowe
No Bet

Fight #2: Benoit vs. Adashev
Benoit KO/TKO (+500) 0.3u

Fight #3: Frey vs. Yoder
No Bet

Fight #4: Chavez vs. Kamaka
No Bet

Fight #5: Garcia vs. Gruetzemacher
Garcia Submission (+260) 0.25u

Main Card:

Fight #6: Barberena vs. Witt
Barberena KO/TKO (+155) 0.35u

Fight #7: Anglin (DEBUT) vs. Baghdasaryan (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #8: Stolze vs. Gooden
No Bet

Fight #9: C. Buys vs. De Paula
C. Buys Decision (+110) 0.35u

Fight #10: Strickland vs. U. Hall
No Bet

[Demonata]

Cosche is trash.ok this fight card is going to be all underdogs too like the last fight card.

[Sanity Check]

Funny how all the arguments people made for TJ Dillashaw winning last week.

"He's being aggressive. Controlling the cage. Landing the heavier shots."

Don't apply to Ryan Benoit fighting the same style.


MMA judging needs to be more consistent.

[frankieunits2685]

ladies are up next

[Demonata]

11 of last 12 ufc underdogs have won

[Sanity Check]

Yoder might have improved her kickboxing noticeably.

We can see.

[Demonata]

Yoder might have improved her kickboxing noticeably.

We can see.

Will a favorite ever win again? Lol

[hankcream]

The only thing keeping me watching this is trying to imagine what Yoder's lower tan line looks like.

[Sanity Check]

Will a favorite ever win again? Lol

Someone would need a little less than 30 consecutive winning bets.

To turn $0.01 into more than $1 million dollars at even odds. (if max bet restrictions weren't a thing)

Profit potential and compounding interest are so ridiculously off the charts.

Gains from betting on dogs versus favorites are negligible at best imo.



At least they were before significant strikes and judging became rigged.

Now its just a joke.