[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 10:00 pm ET
Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises
Marion Reneau vs. Miesha Tate
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jeremy Stephens
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Rodolfo Vieira
Billy Quarantillo vs. Gabriel Benitez

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Preston Parsons vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Amanda Lemos vs. Montserrat Ruiz
Sergey Morozov vs. Khalid Taha
Anderson dos Santos vs. Miles Johns
Francisco Figueredo vs. Malcolm Gordon
Alan Baudot vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

[Sanity Check]

Will Miesha callout Ronda if she wins.

[JIBBBY]

Will Miesha callout Ronda if she wins.

I thought Miesha was retired for good. She hasn't fought in 4 years. She's fighting an old lady that is 44 years old that lost 4 straight fights in Marion though.

Seems like a setup return win for Miesha.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marion-Reneau-61266

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups MMAMANIA -





135 lbs.: Miles Johns vs. Anderson dos Santos

Seven months after beating current top prospect Adrian Yanez for the LFA Bantamweight belt, Miles Johns (11-1) used a steady diet of takedowns to beat Richie Santiago on “Contender Series” and earn himself a UFC contract. He’s now 2-1 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, including a bonus-winning knockout of Kevin Natividad in his most recent effort.
“Chapo” is the taller man by two inches, though he gives up that same amount of reach.
The three-fight win streak for Anderson dos Santos (21-8) came to an end upon his Octagon arrival, dropping a decision to Nad Narimani on a two-week turnaround and subsequently fell short against Andre Ewell. He finally made it into the UFC win column 17 months later, choking out the favored Martin Day in Nov. 2020.
“Berinja” has ended 17 professional fights inside the distance, 12 of them by submission.
While I won’t pretend that Johns has wowed me in his three-fight UFC tenure, this definitely looks winnable. Dos Santos’ upright, hook-heavy striking attack leaves him vulnerable to the same piston jab Johns used to neutralize Natividad, and “Chapo’s” rock-solid wrestling ensures that he’ll set the terms of any and all ground engagements.
Dos Santos’ impressive ground attack does pose a legitimate threat, but the aforementioned wrestling discrepancy makes it unlikely that he’ll get a chance to use it. So long as Johns doesn’t play the same passive game that got him stopped by Bautista, he potshots his way to a wide decision win.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Makhachev Vs Moises’ In Vegas!


125 lbs.: Francisco Figueiredo vs. Malcolm Gordon

Francisco Figueiredo (12-3-1) — brother of former UFC champion Deiveson Figueiredo — made his UFC debut in Jan. 2021 after nearly 16 months on the shelf. He made up for lost time against Jerome Rivera by utilizing sharp counters and lengthy stretches of top control to claim a unanimous decision.
He has submitted seven professional foes and knocked out another three.
Malcolm Gordon (12-5) made two defenses of the TKO Flyweight title — one of them a 92-second submission of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Yoni Sherbatov — to pave his way to UFC. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, however, suffering first-round stoppage losses to rising prospects Amir Albazi and Sumudaerji.
He’ll have one inch of height and reach on “Sniper.”
Losing to elite up-and-comers like Albazi and Sumudaerji does not a bad fighter make; by the same token, beating Jerome Rivera — who’s now winless (0-4) inside the Octagon after last Saturday’s loss — does not a great fighter make. Still, while I don’t consider this as lopsided a match up as the bookies seem to, Figueiredo has the crisp boxing and solid wrestling that’s bedeviled Gordon during his two Octagon appearances.
In short, the Canadian will have to show some real improvement to get the win here.
Gordon’s best chances lie in either trying to finish Figueiredo from his back, as the former has a genuinely dangerous guard, or try and bring Figueiredo’s historical cardio issues back to the fore. Neither would be super shocking, but odds are that Figueiredo plugs him with a straight left down the pipe before Gordon gets a chance to try them.
Prediction: Figueiredo via first round technical knockout
Related
Islam Makhachev Vs. Thiago Moises Elevated To July 17 Main Event


265 lbs.: Alan Baudot vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Alan Baudot (8-2) rode a two-fight win streak into his UFC debut, which saw him step up on short notice to face top prospect Tom Aspinall. The fight — Baudot’s first in nearly 18 months — lasted just 95 seconds before Aspinall’s ground-and-pound forced a stoppage.
Though one inch taller than Nascimento, “The Black Samourai” gives up one inch of reach.
Despite entering on the heels of a nearly two-year layoff because of **** issues, Rodrigo Nascimento (8-1) excelled on Contender Series with a contract-winning submission of Michal Martinek. He kept the momentum up by tapping Don’Tale Mayes in his UFC debut, but fell short against fellow up-and-comer Chris Daukaus in Oct. 2020.
His professional finishes are split 6/2 between submissions and (technical) knockouts.
I understand that UFC is meant to be the ultimate MMA crucible and force fighters to address their weaknesses, but I don’t see why the promotion decided to throw Baudot in against another grappler. The guy’s fun as hell on the feet and absolutely hopeless on the ground; he’s clearly not long for the organization, so why not have some fun with him while he lasts? It’s always a drag to see a bonkers striker demolished by a grappler before they even get a chance to show their stuff.
That’s not to say that Baudot has no chance of victory — he’s wildly aggressive enough to potentially clip Nascimento if the latter’s recent loss makes him hesitate. Still, it’s a lot likelier that Nascimento just takes him down in the first couple minutes and strangles him shortly thereafter.
Prediction: Nascimento via first round submission



170 lbs.: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Preston Parsons

Daniel Rodriguez (14-2) didn’t manage to secure a contract on “Contender Series,” but he’s gone on to put together a 4-1 record in the world’s largest fight promotion. Said run includes a bonus-winning submission of Tim Means and a decision over Mike Perry in his most recent effort.
“D-Rod” has finished seven professional foes by form of knockout.
A busy five-fight span saw Preston Parsons (9-2) tap future UFC competitor Ignacio Bahamondes between losses to Mike Perry and Valdir Araujo, after which he spent two years on the shelf. He’s since picked up four consecutive stoppages, the most recent of them in June 2021.
He steps in for the injured Abubakar Nurmagomedov on just over one week’s notice.
It’s hard to get a good read on Parsons’ ceiling. That’s because he looked real solid in recent footage and didn’t show any red flags, but he hasn’t really beaten anyone noteworthy besides a green Bahamondes and future bare-knuckle boxer David Mundell. As impressive as his grappling and violent clinch game appear to be, it’s hard to pick him against a more tested and proven quantity in Rodriguez.
By the same token, Rodriguez has yet to face a dedicated wrestler in UFC, so while he proved hard to keep down against the likes of Means and Perry, Parsons could very well find success there. Considering Rodriguez’s experience and the fact that he was already preparing for a superior takedown specialist in Nurmagomedov, though, I like “D-Rod” to sprawl-and-brawl his way to victory.
Prediction: Rodriguez via unanimous decision
Related
What Cupcakes? Tate Is Ripped!


115 lbs.: Amanda Lemos vs. Montserrat Ruiz

More than two years after falling to Leslie Smith in her Octagon debut and subsequently failing a drug test, Amanda Lemos (9-1-1) dropped two weight classes to choke out unbeaten Miranda Granger in Busan. She has since scored one-sided wins over Mizuki Inoue and Livinha Souza to secure a spot in the Top 15.
Her eight professional stoppages include six by form of knockout.
Montserrat Ruiz (10-1) battled her way to a perfect (8-0) professional start before running afoul of Danielle Taylor in her Invicta debut. More than 19 months later, she returned to the win column by tapping Janaisa Morandin, then stepped up on short notice to upset Cheyanne Buys in March.
“Conejo” gives up four inches of height and reach to “Amandinha.”
The flow chart for predicting a Ruiz fight has exactly one question: “can you deal with a head-and-arm throw?” If the answer is “yes,” you win. Besides the occasional punching flurry, that one takedown and its corresponding ground attacks comprise the entirety of Ruiz’s arsenal.
While Buys was unable to stop the throw and too unwilling to risk submission danger to get up afterward, the same can’t be said for Lemos, who boasts more than enough wrestling chops to keep the fight standing. On top of that, she has Ruiz hopelessly out-gunned on the feet, where her power and reach advantage figure to make the clinch inaccessible. Unless Lemos feels irresistibly compelled to recreate Buys’ gameplan, she batters Ruiz to a mercy stoppage within two rounds.
Prediction: Lemos via second round technical knockout
Related
Islam Makhachev Vs. Thiago Moises Elevated To July 17 Main Event


135 lbs.: Khalid Taha vs. Sergey Morozov

Khalid Taha (13-3) — less than one year removed from a loss to Nad Narimani in his Octagon debut — proved he belonged in the Octagon by stopping Boston Salmon in just 25 seconds. The momentum wasn’t to last, as he saw a submission of Bruno Silva go up in smoke because of a failed drug test and came up short against Raoni Barcelos in a “Fight of the Night” war.
He’s ended eight professional fights by knockout and another three by submission.
Sergey Morozov (16-4) rebounded from his unsuccessful title bid against Movsar Evloev by winning his next five in a row, beating Aleksandr Osetrov for the M-1 Bantamweight belt and avenging a loss to Josh Rettinghouse along the way. He made it to the Octagon 15 months later, where he tapped to top prospect Umar Nurmagomedov in the second round.
This is one of those intriguing yet frustrating fights where both combatants are well-equipped to exploit the other’s historical weakness. Taha’s power and aggression look like a bad match up for Morozov’s allergy to pressure, while the Russian has the takedown skills to bring Taha’s wrestling issues to the fore once again. It’s a bit of a two-true-outcome fight; either Taha bullies and batters Morozov into submission on the feet or Morozov grinds him into oblivion on the mat.
This is a pure gut pick, but I’m leaning Morozov. Everyone who’s made the effort to takedown Taha in UFC has done so, even a natural Flyweight in Silva. If Taha can muzzle Morozov’s offense with consistent pressure, he’ll batter him, but I like Morozov to control the fight from top position.
Prediction: Morozov via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Main card..


Lightweight: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Best Win for Stephens? Josh Emmett For Gamrot? Scott Holtzmann
Current Streak: Stephens is winless through five (to admittedly elite Featherweights), while Gamrot bounced back from his first pro loss last time out
X-Factor: Stephens is back at 155 lbs. for the first time since 2012
How these two match up: I don’t see how this won’t be a great fight!
Sure, Stephens has lost a bunch of fights in a row, but “Lil Heathen” has still showed some life in those performances, which came against the absolute best. Stephens still has ridiculous power in his hands, and the technical aspects of his game have improved considerably over the last five years or so.
Gamrot lost a bit of steam with an upset loss in his UFC debut, but there’s a reason why fans in the know were excited about “Gamer.” The former KSW champion has a seriously well-rounded game with top-notch wrestling, high-level grappling, and as his knockout of Holtzmann demonstrated, rather surprising power.
I don’t know that I like Stephens move to Lightweight. It’s become something of a necessity due to Stephens’ problems making 145 pounds, but the simple fact remains: Stephens was much more successful as a Featherweight. His punches carried more weight, and his takedown defense held up much better.
It’s not like this is a softball for his return to Lightweight, either. Gamrot is very, very good! He has the skills to keep moving and frustrate his opponent, then when Stephens really chases, the takedown will open up.
Furthermore, Stephens is 35 years of age, and he’s been fighting for a remarkably long time. His performances have remained solid, but at some point, the fall off is going to happen ... that time may be now.
Prediction: Gamrot via decision
Related
Predictions! UFC Vegas 31 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

Predictions! UFC Vegas 31 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

---

Middleweight: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Best Win for Vieira? Oskar Piechota For Stoltzfus? Joseph Phyfer
Current Streak: Vieira suffered his first pro defeat last time out, while Stoltzfus lost his debut
X-Factor: How will Vieira respond from such a dramatic loss?
How these two match up: Grapplers collide!
Vieira is one of the most accomplished jiu-jitsu players to crossover into the sport of MMA. While his wrestling already appears to be very solid, Vieira’s defeat to Anthony Hernandez really called into question his conditioning in the case that the early submission does not materialize.
No matter background or skill set, cardio is ultimately king.
On the flip side, Stoltzfus is a “Contenders Series” pickup who also excels on the mat. He’s got some power in his striker, but it typically doesn’t take long for the Pennsylvania-native to duck down into a shot and look for the submission himself.
One of the worst match ups for a jiu-jitsu fighter is a better jiu-jitsu fighter. On paper, Vieira should overwhelm his opponent on the mat, as Stoltzfus is unlikely to have his sprawl-and-brawl game dialed in. The question comes, however, in the potential second and third round, at which point Stoltzfus may find takedowns easier to shuck and his own offense easier to score.
For now, I’ll trust Vieira to have at least slightly improved upon his gas tank woes, but it’s far from a guarantee.
Prediction: Vieira via submission
Related
Up Next! ‘Makhachev Vs Moises’ In Vegas!

---

Featherweight: Gabriel Benitez vs. Billy Quarantillo

Best Win for Vieira? Jason Knight For Quarantillo? Spike Carlyle
Current Streak: Benitez recently returned to the win column, while Quarantillo lost inside the Octagon for the first time
X-Factor: Benitez kicks absurdly hard
How these two match up: Striker vs. grappler, clear as day!
Benitez is a nasty Southpaw with lots of UFC experience. Anything that comes from his left side is simply so powerful: big kicks, knees, and punches. However, he’s perhaps a bit too defensively lax, which has resulted in Benitez struggling to really gain momentum despite strong performances.
Quarantillo, meanwhile, employs a very effective grinding style of fighting. He puts the pace on his opponents, constantly forcing them to the back foot before looking to set up his takedowns.
This match up reads rather poor for “Billy Q.” Sure, he holds the advantage if able to gain top position, but Benitez is quite accustomed to opponents trying to drag him to the mat. The Mexican athlete is a dedicated out-fighter, quite good at scoring with his kicks and counters before resetting back to the center.
Furthermore, Quarantillo cannot just walk through Benitez’s left kick. If sent low, it will knock him from his stance, and any middle or high kick is a potential fight-ender.
Prediction: Benitez via decision

[hankcream]

I don't think Khabib was ever a -500 favorite, why are the books putting Makhachev at over -600? What am I missing here, there has to be value on Moises +500 or higher. His striking was pretty impressive vs Alexander Hernandez and it's 5 rounds isn't there a chance that he could lock in some sort of sub?

[Sanity Check]

sub?

Only 1 win via sub in the UFC.

Against a guy legendary for not training jiu jitsu with 9 losses via sub.

[Sanity Check]

Quarantillo +137
Tate -144

[PaperTrail07]

tate for sure....but love Benitez as well...

Quarantillo +137
Tate -144

[Sanity Check]

Britney Spears is to her conservatorship.

What Diego Sanchez was to Joshua Fabia.

T/F

[Pinoy-T-X]

Quarantillo +137
Tate -144

not so sure about Tate, she looked horrible against her last 2 fights (Nunes and Pennington) hasn’t fought in almost 5 years, then had two kids since then. It’s a pass for me dawg.

[Sanity Check]

not so sure about Tate, she looked horrible against her last 2 fights (Nunes and Pennington) hasn’t fought in almost 5 years, then had two kids since then. It’s a pass for me dawg.

Its LeMartin's picks, not mine.

Her NFL picks do well. MMA picks might need a little work.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Its LeMartin's picks, not mine.

Her NFL picks do well. MMA picks might need a little work.

well if it’s leMartins pick. F it. I’m going with Tate

[PaperTrail07]

The takedown will be there all day for tate----as long as she is not rusty-she should ride out a 3 round decision.....Reneua will pull guard rather than getting up which usually = a loss for her unless its a miracle sub...

[Sanity Check]

well if it’s leMartins pick. F it. I’m going with Tate

[Sanity Check]

The takedown will be there all day for tate----as long as she is not rusty-she should ride out a 3 round decision.....Reneua will pull guard rather than getting up which usually = a loss for her unless its a miracle sub...

When Miesha last fought in the UFC, Bryan Caraway might have been her boyfriend, manager and head coach.

Miesha Tate isn't with Bryan Caraway anymore.

..

One thing that will never get old is Miesha Tate working over 5 grown men.

[Thor4140]

I thought Miesha was retired for good. She hasn't fought in 4 years. She's fighting an old lady that is 44 years old that lost 4 straight fights in Marion though.

Seems like a setup return win for Miesha.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marion-Reneau-61266

What should she do jibbers ask for the goat Nunes for her first fight back. How bout she get her feet wet. She has been off awhile. She looks like she is incredible shape. I like the voluptuous Meshia better

[SEKTAUR]

Makhachev Gamrot Cupcake parlay $$$

[sosawestbrook]

banger card
could see a lot of finishes tomorrow night

[209 Life]

Marion Reneau's retirement fight. Hanging em up after this one. See if she goes out with a win.

[Mase of Base]

Tate? Wtf. What's her end game here? Should have a gig at UFC if she needs the money as she's a fan favorite, good looking and knows the game. I like DC but lets be honest he ain't the best commentator going around!

[JIBBBY]

What should she do jibbers ask for the goat Nunes for her first fight back. How bout she get her feet wet. She has been off awhile. She looks like she is incredible shape. I like the voluptuous Meshia better

Miesha is happier and shredded now. I'm going with the younger Tate even though she's been out for 4 years. I'll always go against a fighter that is 44 years old in the UFC, man or women. Can't beat father time in this sport. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marion-Reneau-61266

Miesha has always been a tough cookie break also, mentally tough.. I'll take the fighter that's 10 years younger in this one regardless of ring rust..

[JIBBBY]

Dogs could bark in this event!! Outside of Meisha me tinks!! Ruff Ruff!!

May try the double up gambling dog theory in this event. Main card especially.

[Demonata]

I'm not betting this card. Just watching for fun.

[bitcoinLuke]

I don't think Khabib was ever a -500 favorite, why are the books putting Makhachev at over -600? What am I missing here, there has to be value on Moises +500 or higher. His striking was pretty impressive vs Alexander Hernandez and it's 5 rounds isn't there a chance that he could lock in some sort of sub?

Khabib was -500 or more at least 2 times: vs Raging Al, and Horcher

[frankieunits2685]

Miles Johns vs. Anderson Dos Santos is off.

[Thor4140]

Why can't the little Heathen win? He lost his last four but those are not clowns. His opponent is a sub machine but i never see Stevens get subbed. He has a the punchers chance here. His opponent can punch and may try to punch with Stevens. I think Stevens has a shot here.

[Thrilla]

not so sure about Tate, she looked horrible against her last 2 fights (Nunes and Pennington) hasn’t fought in almost 5 years, then had two kids since then. It’s a pass for me dawg.

Make that last 3. She beat Holm against the run of play. Sub was only way

[Pinoy-T-X]

Why can't the little Heathen win? He lost his last four but those are not clowns. His opponent is a sub machine but i never see Stevens get subbed. He has a the punchers chance here. His opponent can punch and may try to punch with Stevens. I think Stevens has a shot here.

I Agree. I see him winning as a dog. Value at +200

[PaperTrail07]

Mak ITD -130
Benitez -155
Tate -165
Taha By Dec +190

[PaperTrail07]

Nascimento by Dec +450 Added
Quar by Dec hedge _285 small

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN 26: Makhachev vs. Moises
Rodrigo Nascimento Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Francisco Figueiredo Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Sergey Morozov Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Amanda Lemos Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Daniel Rodriguez Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Gabriel Benitez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Rodolfo Vieira Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mateusz Gamrot Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Marion Reneau Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Islam Makhachev Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN 26: Makhachev vs. Moises

ESPN Prelims:

Fight #1: Nascimento vs. Baudot
Nascimento ITD (-138) 0.85u to win 0.62u
Nascimento KO/TKO (+400) 0.15u

Fight #2: F. Figueiredo vs. M. Gordon
No Bet

Fight #3: Morozov vs. Taha
Morozov (+130) 0.4u
Morozov Decision (+225) 0.1u

Fight #4: Lemos vs. Ruiz
Lemos Round 1 (+300) 0.2u

Fight #5: D. Rodriguez vs. Parsons (DEBUT)
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #6: Benitez vs. Quarantillo
Benitez (-150) 1.5u to win 1u

Fight #7: R. Vieira vs. Stoltzfus
No Bet

Fight #8: Gamrot vs. Stephens
Gamrot+Stephens Over 2.5 (-138) 0.5u to win 0.36u
Gamrot+Stephens Goes Distance (+115) 0.35u
Gamrot Decision (+225) 0.35u

Fight #9: Reneau vs. Tate
Reneau Scorecards = No Action (+100) 0.2u
Reneau (+155) 0.5u
Reneau ITD (+550) 0.12u

Fight #10: Makhachev vs. Moises
Makhachev+Moises Goes Distance (-125) 0.5u to win 0.4u
Makhachev Unanimous Decision (+160) 0.25u
Makhachev KO/TKO (+330) 0.15u

[Kermit]

UFC on ESPN 26: Makhachev vs. Moises
Rodrigo Nascimento Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Francisco Figueiredo Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Sergey Morozov Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Amanda Lemos Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Daniel Rodriguez Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Gabriel Benitez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Rodolfo Vieira Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mateusz Gamrot Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Marion Reneau Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Islam Makhachev Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)

My entire night is revolving around these 3 finishing their fights.

[Thrilla]

Kermit post Montserrat Ruiz's bunny tale shake