[aznbluff]

Alright listen up you penetrating degenerate losers of SBR

I need soldiers, manpower to make some penetrating $$$$ alright

I'll provide you the tools and knowhow how to develop a working model for basically any sport or game of skill

I need you dumbasses as a collective community to keep it up to date as a community project so that we can all make $$$$
Heres a previous of what the finished product looks like for Tennis:
https://imgur.com/I5eQ9kT

So for Wimbeldon finals (BO5) it spits out a "True line" of Djokovic -772, while the offered line is around -480 right now

For the Semis the lines would have been Djokovic -1328 and Berrettini -238
Its a glicko-2 rating system model. It will spit out the "True" line with no vig for a BO3 or BO5.

It can be modified to do anything, any sport or game of skill ML, BO3 etc

I need you dumbasses to keep it up to date for me so I can spend my time on other things so I'm sharing it. Hopefully there are 2-3 responses fro,m people who arent complete penetrating jackasses and dumbfucks and can operate Excel to a reasonable level

I can keep it up to date for 2-3 sports / leagues but i cant penetrating update it for every single sport so I'm missing value and $$$$

Lets see where this thread goes

EDIT: The plan is that i upload the raw template to Google Sheets or some shit like that and the community maintains it for each sport. This is how sportsbooks generate their lines, its a mix of glicko-2 calibration and poisson distribution.

This removes emotion from it, but doesnt factor in situational factors (especially team sports with injuries etc)

I need volunteers and not penetrating dumbasses either

Here's what each individual calibration sheet looks like

https://imgur.com/ayxEOXU

So you do this for every team or player and it calibrates everyone's relative skill to each other. It translates to a single "Rating" number which is in the first link. Then the probability of winning is calculated with the glicko formula

Heres the calibrating formulas for you dumbasses
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glicko_rating_system

And the win probability calculation:
=1/(1+(10^-((B3-D3)/400)))

where B3 is the Rating of Player 1
and D3 is the Rating of Player 2

Essentially a 400 difference in Rating = 90% chance of winning. Then you adjust from here, as a "True skill difference of 400" for BO3 in tennis will be different for BO5 etc

Who wants to volunteer

[jjgold]

[SamsNCharge99]

[Chi_archie]

I wish I had the time

big thanks to Mark Glickman and Ratings deviation

[RudyRuetigger]

can someone summarize where i should send my money?

[RudyRuetigger]

this guy has 890 posts but i remember him from some thread



im not in the mood to look it up right now



who knows, it mightve been deleted anyway

[JIBBBY]

WTF? Had me at this first line below in bold then lost me after.

Just make a frigg'n bet in tennis if you think it will win. Relax with over thinking it and creating capping gambling drama. If you are touting you will get banned. Don't even try it.


"Alright listen up you penetrating degenerate losers of SBR"

[flyingillini]

Ganchrow 3.3

[RudyRuetigger]

Testing a model (sportsbookreview.com)


lets hope azn is better than this thread he created

[BIGDAY]

[Bostongambler]

Anzu are you Muslim?

[RudyRuetigger]

Anzu are you Muslim?

i think hes from arizona????

[JIBBBY]

Anzu are you Muslim?

[Bostongambler]

i think hes from arizona????

🤔 🤔 🤔

[Bostongambler]

😂 😂 😂

[Stryder]

that's a lot of fukkin numbers

[Chi_archie]

does the moose lim live on on Bluff or does he play bluff a lot of hands in poker?

[goduke]

So you want free labor because essentially no one knows whether this will work. And not only free labor, if this model doesn’t work you want people to pay money to place these wagers and then also update your excel. No thanks

[aznbluff]

So you want free labor because essentially no one knows whether this will work. And not only free labor, if this model doesn’t work you want people to pay money to place these wagers and then also update your excel. No thanks

Yes you penetrating dumbass thats exactly what i said i want

People who are willing to take the leap of faith

[JayLA]

So that's how sportsbooks make their lines. Interesting.

I work from home and depending on how much of a time sink this would be , I'd be interested.

[wikkidinsane]

lol @ you guys bashing someone who is trying something out lol

[RudyRuetigger]

lol @ you guys bashing someone who is trying something out lol

he started bashing



you love to see his enthusiasm though



i am wanting picks

[UncleChael]

We're rich !!!

[Tanko]

With such a polite request, how could anyone turn the OP down?

I need you dumbasses as a collective community to keep it up to date as a community project so that we can all make $$$$
I need volunteers and not penetrating dumbasses either
Heres the calibrating formulas for you dumbasses

[unde0087]

can someone summarize where i should send my money?

I will go half in on the diamond package with you bro

[gauchojake]

I wish I had the time.

[goduke]

Yes you penetrating dumbass thats exactly what i said i want

People who are willing to take the leap of faith

Good luck finding someone you clearly are a nice guy. I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t want to help you

[aznbluff]

Good luck finding someone you clearly are a nice guy. I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t want to help you

penetrate you

[Orbison]

hello, on each sheet you posted, which columns require hard coded data and where do the values of said data originate from?

[flyingillini]

I wish I had the time.

You make time Gaucho Loco! You only live once carnal.

[KiDBaZkiT]

I dig aznmuffs

[lonegambler23]

never heard of ya pal

[jjgold]

[gauchojake]

You make time Gaucho Loco! You only live once carnal.

horale carnal! es la verdad.

[flyingillini]

horale carnal! es la verdad.

Milpas Street por vida!