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I'm on an epic heater, and I been waiting for months for this one UFC Fight
I'm not an every day player anymore. I'm rarely ever a poster here... I had a $400 into $36,000 run years ago that was documented on SBR.... I'm now a large bettor that rarely makes plays. I can go months without a single wager. I caught fire in the NBA Playoffs, I'm up $15k the last month which is perfect timing as since the Burns vs Thompson fight was announced I knew I wanted to make this my largest UFC bet ever.... I am absolutely a lifetime loser on UFC, so with that said...
Gilbert Burns should be a favorite (-200 or more) over Stephen Thompson
I have 7.5k/12k on it right now (some on to Burns to Win by finishing the fight). I have 2.5k sitting in the wings for a live bet after R1 IF Burns wins R1... And if He losses R1, waiting for +250 or better to throw the rest on it.
Here's why I feel like this is a terrible line......
Its been 5 years since Wonderboy has finished anyone.. he's not KO'ing Burns. He's certainly not even going to attempt to wrestle Burns who is far superior.
Wonderboy will be looking to win this fight by decision by controlling the distance with a jab, make it a boring right, not loading up, just protecting the stand up with that 4 in reach advantage to protect against the take down which maybe career ending. He's a great karate striker that makes it hard for opposition to defend. It's a good game plan. Also, if youre betting Thompson, just take the +160 by decision instead. Youll save yourself 50 cents on the loss... Because if youre fighting elite fighter, and they aren't scared of your power, that 4in reach advantage will soon mean nothing. Burns will have 5 rounds to learn he can't be hurt, and then Burns will come inside.
Burns has incredible power. He dropped Usman let's not forget. Usman the P4P Champ and Burns was seconds away from finishing him. Anthony Pettis KO'd Wonderboy, Burns KO'ing Thompson is certainly a possibility. Thompson himself said so in an interview, that he's worried if he misreads Burns going to shoot and Burns pops up and hits him with a power shot, he's in trouble. Can Burns win by KO. Yes.
Burns is a superior wrestler. Burns, never lost back to back fights, has been dominate in the UFC. He can wrestle with the best of him, he's compact. His disadvantage in length on the feet, will be a cinderblock on the ground. Burns will abolutely take Wonderboy down multiple times in this fight. Wonderboy will not be able to compete down there, his only hope will be escape. Burns averages 2 take downs per 3 rounds. Wonderboy has really good take down defense, but 75% defense will not be good enough. 5 rounds, Burns will get at least 3 takedowns if the fight goes that long. And I suspect if Burns gets him down, theres a large chance this ends in a submission. 42% of Burns wins come via Submission. Can Burns win by Submission. Yes. He probably will IMO.
5 Rounds is a MAJOR advantage for Burns. Major. So much so if this was a 3 R fight, I would be way less. I'd still be on burns but not like this. Thompson has to avoid the KO, has to avoid the takedown to avoid submission and has to get to the scorecards to win. Easier to do that in 3 than in 5. Burns can win the entire fight in any one second. Even down 4-0. That's why Ill be waiting for a big plus number live is Burns doesn't win the early rounds.
Oh I alluded earlier than I am saving 2.5k with a live bet. If Burns wins R1, i'm topping it offer to have an even 10k risked on Burns. Thompson only path to victory is then to win 3 of the next 4 rounds. Although, I've talked about Thompson winning on points, Burns can too. If he does secure 3 take downs, that could be rounds won right there. If they stand up the entire round, I think Burns only wins the round by landing the big shot. He's not going to outbox Wonderboy for 5 minutes. Yes Thompson has back to back wins over decent opponents via decision, but he's 3-3 over the last 6. Burns is undoubtely top 3 in this division, and Saturday night he will end Wonderboys Title dreams.
BURNS +135
Sprinkled Some on Burns +260 by Submission or KOTKO
$7,500 to Win $12,000+
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Originally Posted by Defying
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