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09-27-20 08:23 PM #71
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09-28-20 06:22 AM #72
KVB give me your model or I will come for you
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10-01-20 01:40 PM #73
Here's the latest report. So far the outlook and predictions of market direction have been pretty solid and our bounce form the -15 level in a playoff run was anticipated.
The subset of backbone plays remain at +8.87 units and we haven't seen a backbone play since September 22nd.
Originally Posted by KVB
Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after 182 plays with links.
The playoffs are here...
940 30-Sep NYY/CLE UNDER 8 (+102) -1 944 TB -133 0.75 947 MIA +153 1.53 948 MIA/CHC UNDER 8.5 (-104) 0.96 949 STL +148 1.48 Wed 3.72 Regular Season 2020 -10.93 Total -7.21
Here's the chart. As expected, we got our bounce out of the pullback and are making the playoff run. It could get a little sideways as volatility might slow a bit over the next few plays...
As far as buy and sell signals we are in a technical SMA sell but the difference between the 10 and 20 SMA is -.124, a very small difference in comparison to each point of the season. The outlook reamins postive with near term sideways charting and less volatility over the next few days.
We are in the midst of a run here.
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10-01-20 05:58 PM #74
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05-13-21 04:01 PM #75
Today’s Report will walk us over the last month of The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone plays and charts. The following explains the chart markings with links to plays and analysis...
The Yellow Dot is on April 15th when I predicted a sideways market saying this…
On April 28th, the other side of the head and shoulders mountain at the Purple Dot, I said these two things… Originally Posted by KVB
Originally Posted by KVB
On May 8th, marked by the Red Circle, I said this… Originally Posted by KVB
That 0 referred to the season to date chart and a successful test is exactly what we saw. Note that the lowest support line drawn, the season to date 0 line, and the 100 play SMA all coming to a point at the Green Circle. The Red Circle is at the SMA 50… Originally Posted by KVB
Here's a link to the most recent Summary with links to every original play, inluding the most recent play on May 13th...
Summary as of May 12th.
Analysis and Outlook:
The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone is a market tracking Fund and has been doing just that. My analysis through the weeks has been spot on and those who regularly follow these market tracking analyses have seen this in both the NCAAF and NBA, with the market tracking Funds.
The KVB MLB Contrarian Backbone Fund continues to be in a Buy signal and range bound showing some stabilization at these levels. It’s possible we see a breakout to the positive side and perhaps even a test of the season high in a longer term “double top” outlook.
Short term we should continue to test at both the 50 play SMA on the top side and the SMA 100 on the bottom side with the indicated support and resistance lines and 10 and 20 SMA lagging indicators being relevant.
While the last two wins were an increased unit size in an Aggressive Trader Fund, due to the recent classic Head and Shoulders pattern this season I am not recommending buying back into the Fund and will continue with the current unit size, established at the Purple Dot in the chart above. That said we are watching closely for all signs of a breakout, including volume scoring, to begin another potential leg upward. As usual, patience is important here.
<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/AngryPerfectKilldeer' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='477'></iframe>Points Awarded:
Jayvegas420 gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: stake1
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05-13-21 04:03 PM #76
That report is always well detailed
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05-13-21 04:29 PM #77
Analysis you won't find anywhere else in the world, Gold, across multiple sports.
While most think sports betting is unbeatable, I have developed a way to track the markets, buying some strategies long, passing on others, and even shorting or fading yet other strategies, all the while rotating assets from one sector to the next.
Just like the stock market.
Let's think about it, how could such charting even be possible? How can there be a market that responds like a manipulated equity?
That's something for FlyMe, and knowledge for the esoteric.
"One in a while you get shown the light
In the strangest places if you look at it right..."
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05-13-21 06:04 PM #78
KVB the type of guy you do not like but if you meet him you want to hug him
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05-13-21 10:05 PM #79
total dollars wagered?
total dollars made?
let's say a total of $110,000 wagered at $1100 per game for 100 games, and the total winnings are $5,000, then it is about 4.55% ROI.
too many guys (not saying you do this KVB) take their bankroll and divide the winnings by that number.
this is WRONG.
one need divide by the Total Dollars Risked.
anyways, KVBers one of my doods. IDK what the hell is going on here but he's my guy....
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05-13-21 10:11 PM #80
Did exactly that the first time we met. Great guy. Originally Posted by jjgold
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05-13-21 11:22 PM #81
Hell yes!!! Originally Posted by KVB
Today’s Report will walk us over the last month of The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone plays and charts. The following explains the chart markings with links to plays and analysis...
The Yellow Dot is on April 15th when I predicted a sideways market saying this…
On April 28th, the other side of the head and shoulders mountain at the Purple Dot, I said these two things…
On May 8th, marked by the Red Circle, I said this…
That 0 referred to the season to date chart and a successful test is exactly what we saw. Note that the lowest support line drawn, the season to date 0 line, and the 100 play SMA all coming to a point at the Green Circle. The Red Circle is at the SMA 50…
Here's a link to the most recent Summary with links to every original play, inluding the most recent play on May 13th...
Summary as of May 12th.
Analysis and Outlook:
The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone is a market tracking Fund and has been doing just that. My analysis through the weeks has been spot on and those who regularly follow these market tracking analyses have seen this in both the NCAAF and NBA, with the market tracking Funds.
The KVB MLB Contrarian Backbone Fund continues to be in a Buy signal and range bound showing some stabilization at these levels. It’s possible we see a breakout to the positive side and perhaps even a test of the season high in a longer term “double top” outlook.
Short term we should continue to test at both the 50 play SMA on the top side and the SMA 100 on the bottom side with the indicated support and resistance lines and 10 and 20 SMA lagging indicators being relevant.
While the last two wins were an increased unit size in an Aggressive Trader Fund, due to the recent classic Head and Shoulders pattern this season I am not recommending buying back into the Fund and will continue with the current unit size, established at the Purple Dot in the chart above. That said we are watching closely for all signs of a breakout, including volume scoring, to begin another potential leg upward. As usual, patience is important here.
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05-14-21 05:56 AM #82
This guy so detailed
Charts amazing
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05-14-21 06:17 PM #83
I remember that. I was standing with guys bummed because I thought you left and I missed you. Next thing you know you were right in front of me. Originally Posted by lakerboy
I had a little burst of excitement, like a 4th quarter 30 seconds left pick six that covers your spread, moneyline, and total.
lol
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05-14-21 06:25 PM #84
KVB loves to get the last word in all the time
He was leaving the bash and Booya must of had words with him, I think he called KVB a mosquito and walked away....so as KVB was just about to leave the ball room he shouted something at Booya and got last word in as his lovely wife pulled him away.
It was hilarious , KVB a nut job
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05-14-21 07:04 PM #85
After four plays yesterday, here's the chart...
We are right in the range and one of the things here I am trying to show is that there is more to the sportsbetting markets than the individual games, there is a sum to the parts. Originally Posted by KVB
Wow, talk about range bound.
Look at the chart after yesterday's results. We are technically now in a sell signal with the result of the Arizona loss last night (something to note, the team).
Right down the middle, but I think there's a higher probability of a negative breakout than positive, here, but it's tough to tell at this point...
This Fund tracks those sums. For these charts to look like they do, what does that mean for sport at play? It's a mental exercise.
There are a couple of things to note here. First, after 6 straight days of two plays triggering, we get 3 plays, 4 plays, and then the 4 plays pending today.
Activity is up and volume is being spread out to more opportunity, but look at the narrow range that's being produced I am not surprised at the consolidation. As noted in the quoted post, we are now in a SELL signal. The last time we had signals cross back and forth so close to each other was around play #66 in the chart. Sure, we continued an up leg, but there are many differences.
--Back then we were coming out of a partial inverse head and shoulders pattern.
----This time we are coming out of a classic true head and shoulders.
--Back then the SMA Difference not only stayed very close to zero before breaking out, but the Difference, represented by the Orange Line below, came from a BUY signal, had its brush with zero, then curved back upward.
----This time while the differences stayed close to zero, the divergence at the very end of the chart below is negative and we are coming from a SELL signal before brushing with zero, appearing to start to curve downward.
I’m talking about the Orange Line in the chart below, and the part of it highlighted in yellow…
The outlook remains the same, we are in a sideways to downward market but the tightening of the results is promising, as we do want the market to make a move, one way or the other. That Head and Shoulders pattern we just came out of continues to loom behind us, like the mountain it is and with that and the analysis above, I continue to recommend the same unit size established in the Purple Dot in the chart as we watch the markets closely. Coming off that recent test of support is a sure sign of health, but we're not a stage to buy back in for an upleg. As I said before, patience is important here.
<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/BriskAridFlee' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='313'></iframe>Points Awarded:
Jayvegas420 gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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05-14-21 09:16 PM #86
What do you do on a sell signal fade yourself?
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05-14-21 10:07 PM #87
Not always and depends on the market. Originally Posted by jjgold
The tenth post in this thread actually has a link to a post where I discuss this a bit, including an excel formula on how the signal is created.
The BUY and SELL signals occur when the SMA 10 and 20 cross. They are lagging indicators but are used as part of the bigger picture and are taken very literally in only some circumstances and usually involve an Aggressive Trading Fund.
Like the NBA back when COVID hit. That was a perfect example of how those signals are used to trade aggressively, note we had a favorable market as well, with a key turn in the chart.
I think the first time I introduced them was with the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket and are useful with all market tracking Funds.
The SELL and a Fade in a down market are much easier to do with spread bets. When it comes to the MLB Contrarian Fund, just fading the play is more complex, as we are dealing with prices.
Right now in MLB, it's just one piece of the puzzle. Some market envirnoments warrant shorting the MLB Fund, but let's hope we don't enter into one of those.
Here's that post I referred to, it shows how the Orange Line is created. This can be done for all kinds of technicals though, not just SMAs.
Originally Posted by KVB
...This is a screenshot of an excel spreadsheet used to make those graphs but notice the formula and the highlighted cell...
I did the opposite of the formula for the "sell" signal. Each signal marks a cross of the moving averages, or a cross of zero on the difference histogram. There have only been 3 this season.
We can use this type of spreadsheet to back test market results and analysis. Here we're using SMA but we can use other technicals as well on these market tracking Fund.
We can set a tolerance as well. Say you went 5 trades after a signal, or 8 trades, or until you make a unit, etc.
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05-15-21 01:06 AM #88
Another 4 play day and here's the latest summary.
Another exact bounce, this time as resistance off the SMA 50...
Again the outlook remains the same here and we continue with the unit established with the Purple Dot. No matter the result of the next play in the Fund (in rotation order), at the end of that play, we will be in a Buy signal. The immediate factors of dropping below both the SMA 10 and 20 are not as worrisome when we are rangebound but we can't ignore the direction as we approach the SMA 100 and that third test of support. Originally Posted by KVB
If you've been following along, you'll find this summary a little fascinating.
First, here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after Friday, through 69 plays with links...
902 14-May PIT +167 1.67 917 LAA +112 -1 928 DET +132 -1 929 NYM +143 -1 Fri -1.33 Week 1-4 5.03 Week 5 -2.69 Week 6 0.03 Mon - Tue -2 Wed 1.73 Thu 0.38 Total 1.15
Even with the busy back to back 4 play days, look at where the rotation order results leave us in the charts. A dead on, perfect bounce of the upper support line and, better yet, the SMA 50 only to break right through to the SMA 100. Now we know how this is possible in stocks, but how do you think this is possible in sports?
Rangebound, and offering the best teaching by example moments I possible could...
No matter the result of the next play, the next play will trigger a BUY signal.
At the same time, we are testing that 100 SMA level, as we could fall through and still touch the bottom support line for a 3rd test...
The SMA Difference rounded back towards 0, as the next result brings a BUY signal, and this is again the product of a tightening range. We won't stay in this range for long, these 10 and 20 SMAs will diverge. Again we watch these metrics, volume, scores, and also note that rate of plays. We've had 11 plays in the last 3 days, further tightening this range.
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05-15-21 01:18 AM #89
Originally Posted by KVB
This post has links and quotes to posts that explain the use of some of these technicals with the NCAAF UPSET Basket...
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post29293090
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05-15-21 04:41 AM #90
There’s so much data in this thread it’s unbelievable this kid might actually be a data scientist
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05-15-21 08:05 AM #91
threads full of data usually indicate the OP is a data scientist.
Does this make you a horse manure scientist?
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05-15-21 11:49 AM #92
Originally Posted by jjgold
Booya didn’t just call me a mosquito, he called me a Jamaican midget mosquito.
All I did was shout to Booya, asking if he wanted to dance. My wife wasn’t having it.
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05-15-21 12:07 PM #93
KVB what is your favorite software to use?
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05-15-21 12:36 PM #94
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: KVB
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05-15-21 02:03 PM #95
KVBer are you Jamaican or was it simply Booya's ignorance generalizing your ethnicity/nationality? Originally Posted by KVB
Booya didn’t just call me a mosquito, he called me a Jamaican midget mosquito.
All I did was shout to Booya, asking if he wanted to dance. My wife wasn’t having it.
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05-15-21 02:17 PM #96
lol it was joke. Originally Posted by homie1975
It was reference to a vid I have of Booya getting down on the dance floor with a Jamaican midget.
There was never any actual shouting or words like that exchanged.
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05-15-21 02:26 PM #97
The coward is still afraid to post and track, and he is afraid to post in players talk
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05-15-21 02:33 PM #98
This is what a winning thread looks like. Originally Posted by thomorino
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...again-p14.html Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
Reply with “dumb shit” = you lost againPoints Awarded:
KVB gave BeatTheJerk 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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05-15-21 02:55 PM #99
You are a dumb shit Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
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05-15-21 02:56 PM #100
Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
That’s not tracking dumb shit.
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05-15-21 02:56 PM #101
This coward won’t post or track any of his picks and he never posts anything in players talk.
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05-15-21 03:04 PM #102
It’s a bottom line. A number/sum/figure it’s a clear determination if I’m winning money or losing money. What is a “unit” worth to you ? 100 bucks ? You’re DOWN a lot in the last year or more from your threads. Not familiar with your earlier action on here. Originally Posted by thomorino
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05-15-21 03:26 PM #103
Wrong you are a dumb shit Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
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05-15-21 03:31 PM #104
Ok fine 10 bucks is worth a unit to you. So you’re not down 10’s of thousands in the last year or more just thousands. Originally Posted by thomorino
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05-15-21 07:37 PM #105
Wrong you are a dumb shit Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
Ok fine 10 bucks is worth a unit to you. So you’re not down 10’s of thousands in the last year or more just thousands.
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