[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler (for lightweight title)
Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush
Jack Hermansson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Viviane Araujo vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Edson Barboza vs. Shane Burgos

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Andre Muniz vs. Ronaldo Souza
Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Mike Grundy vs. Lando Vannata
Andrea Lee vs. Antonina Shevchenko

ESPN+ 5:15 pm ET
Jamie Pickett vs. Jordan Wright
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Gina Mazany
Kevin Aguilar vs. Tucker Lutz
Christos Giagos vs Sean Soriano

[thedenthead]

Early leans Schnell, Barboza, shahbazyan.

[frankieunits2685]

Can’t wait for this card.

[unlearn]

Stacked card. Hope they dont lose too many fights.

[hankcream]

Early leans on Ferguson & Chandler but have to do some research. 1 early locked in play:
3.6 units Mike Grundy -120

[magpie878]

Early leans on Ferguson & Chandler but have to do some research. 1 early locked in play:
3.6 units Mike Grundy -120

I don't much at all about that list I saw of Grundy opponents. Are those decent/good wins? Lando certainly hasn't impressed me overall in my brief UFC time, but curious for your reasoning.

[PaperTrail07]

Oliviera
Dariush
Hermansson.... Hate its juicy buy hey....Winners

[PaperTrail07]

3 rounder.....Shab has zero ground and Hermansson will get it to the ground IMO...

Early leans Schnell, Barboza, shahbazyan.

[frankieunits2685]

Hermansson/Shahbazyan OFF, rescheduled for May 22nd.

[PaperTrail07]

dammit

Hermansson/Shahbazyan OFF, rescheduled for May 22nd.

[hankcream]

I don't much at all about that list I saw of Grundy opponents. Are those decent/good wins? Lando certainly hasn't impressed me overall in my brief UFC time, but curious for your reasoning.

Grundy is a high level wrestler- competed on the international level and has been improving his striking game. I think the line is close because he lost to Evloev in his last fight but it was a good close match. Plus I think Lando is done. My picks have sucked lately so probably not the best one to tail.

[JIBBBY]

Chandler could be a bad much up for Oli.. Chandler is a very STRONG wrestler and has never been submitted.. Almost impossible to take down. Chandler hits hard also.

[PaperTrail07]

Chandler has a good frame to fight Oli but IMO Oli's skills are too much...Oliveira will finish him.....

Chandler could be a bad much up for Oli.. Chandler is a very STRONG wrestler and has never been submitted.. Almost impossible to take down. Chandler hits hard also.

[JIBBBY]

Chandler has a good frame to fight Oli but IMO Oli's skills are too much...Oliveira will finish him.....

Tough fight to bet on either way as I'm trying to cap it now. You maybe right. I think the odds are just about spot on unfortunately. The fight could stay standing and I can't see Chandler getting outclassed that badly.

[PaperTrail07]

I wish Chandler was the fav lmao but yeah.... Dont overlook Oliveria.....finished last 7/8 fights...everyone looking at chandler...that KO...IMO its round 1 for Chandler or he is done-cant maintain that pace....

[Unwritten Law]

I am strongly leaning Do Bronx. Kid is ready for that strap and he will get it ITD.

[JIBBBY]

Tony getting up in age at 37, best days could be behind him now. He has documented mental issues also and is on meds. I'm fading. Dariush is a solid well rounded fighter in his prime now at age 32..

Keep it simple..

[JIBBBY]

Write ups MMA MANIA prelims.






185 lbs.: Jordan Wright vs. Jamie Pickett

Jordan Wright (11-1) — who saw a “Contender Series” loss overturned because of his opponent’s failed drug test — knocked out Gabriel Checco in LFA before stepping up on short notice to stop Ike Villanueva in the Octagon. He wasn’t quite as successful against Joaquin Buckley, suffering the first official defeat of his career in Nov. 2020.
All of his wins have come by stoppage, 10 of them in the first round.
Having fallen to Charles Byrd and Punahele Soriano in previous stints on the program, Jamie Pickett (11-5) entered his third “Contender Series” bout on a mission, stopping Jhonoven Pati early in the second round. Fellow series veteran Tafon Nhukwi proved a tougher out, however, as he defeated Pickett by unanimous decision in the Octagon.
He’ll have three inches of reach on “The Beverly Hills Ninja.”
Both of these men struggle mightily when pressured, so this one comes down to who can seize the initiative. For my money, that’s Wright. That’s because Pickett’s generally awkward when he tries to lead and can’t seem to stay off the fence when forced to retreat. Even the painfully slow Tafon Nchukwi had all kinds of success backing him up, so Wright shouldn’t have an issue pressing forward and getting his kicks going.
Wright looks to have the greater stopping power of the two, and though Pickett’s durable enough to avoid a knockout, he’ll have a hard time landing as many meaningful blows. In the end, Wright’s first trip to the judges ends successfully.
Prediction: Wright via unanimous decision
Related
UFC 262 Poster Drops For ‘Oliveira Vs Chandler’

125 lbs.: Gina Mazany vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Gina Mazany (7-4) spent her first five UFC bouts as a Bantamweight, going 1-4 against division standouts like Sara McMann, Macy Chiasson and Julia Avila. A drop to 125 pounds quickly paid dividends, pounding out Rachael Ostovich in Nov. 2020.
Five of her professional wins have come inside the distance, four by form of knockout.
The tenacity of Priscila Cachoeira (9-3) didn’t translate into success in her first three Octagon bouts, which included a one-sided thrashing from Valentina Shevchenko and decision losses to Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. The fourth time proved the charm, however, leveling Shana Dobson with a vicious one-punch knockout to earn “Performance of the Night.”
“Zombie Girl” fights for the first time in almost 15 months thanks to a failed weight cut scrapping an Oct. 2020 clash with Cortney Casey.
I may have been a bit too hard on Mazany in the past — all four of the women she lost to were very capable Bantamweights, and her performance against Ostovich suggests that she was fighting above her ideal weight. She should be way too much for Cachoeira, at the very least, boasting the wrestling skills to dominate her on the mat the way McCann did.
Cachoeira’s pressure and power won’t mean much when she can’t keep it standing, and considering that Mazany racked up more than a half-dozen takedowns on Ostovich, “Zombie Girl” can’t rely on Mazany gassing late. In short, Mazany moves to 2-0 at 125 pounds via relentless grind.
Prediction: Mazany via unanimous decision
Related
Win UFC Title, Still Be Second Best?

145 lbs.: Kevin Aguilar vs. Tucker Lutz

Though Kevin Aguilar (17-5) didn’t manage to secure a contract on “Contender Series,” he made up for it in the Octagon itself, scoring entertaining decisions over Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola. Subsequent efforts proved less successful, as a June 2020 loss to Charles Rosa capped a three-fight losing streak.
“The Angel of Death” will have a one-inch reach advantage over “Top Gun.”
Tucker Lutz (11-1) put a debut loss behind him to win nine straight en route to the Contender Series, where he defeated Chase Gibson by unanimous decision. The win failed to produce a contract, though his sin over Sherrard Blackledge on the program two months later did the trick.
His eight professional stoppage wins include six by submission.
Aguilar’s recent form has been worrying, to say the least. While there’s no shame in falling to killers like Dan Ige and Zubaira Tukhugov, losing a pure striking battle to Charles Rosa raises all sorts of red flags. Before his current slump, I’d have picked him to punish Lutz’s lack of head movement for a dramatic finish. Now, I can’t trust his accuracy or durability to carry him past an active, well-rounded, and fundamentally sound fighter.
The power’s presumably still there, so a knockout isn’t out of the question, but I trust Lutz to take Aguilar’s punches a lot more than vice-versa, and “Top Gun” also has a strong wrestling game to lean on. The occasional knockdown or takedown should carry Lutz to victory in a back-and-forth battle.
Prediction: Lutz via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! A Champion Will Be Crowned In Houston!

155 lbs.: Christos Giagos vs. Sean Soriano

The first Octagon run for Christos Giagos (18-8) came to an end when a knockout from Josh Emmett capped off a 1-3 skid, and though he fought his way back into the big show two years later, Charles Oliveira spoiled his return with a second-round rear-naked choke. “The Spartan” has since put together a solid 3-1 run, the sole loss a competitive one against Drakkar Klose.
His resume includes seven knockout wins and three submissions.
Sean Soriano (14-6) initially went three-and-out in UFC before losing two of his next three on the regional circuit. He bounced back in a big way with wins in five of his last six, including a knockout of fellow Octagon vet Noad Lahat in March 2021.
He replaces Joel Alvarez, who ran into **** issues, on less than two weeks’ notice.
Giagos has done an excellent job of addressing the wrestling issues that torpedoed his first UFC run, to the point where he’s leaned heavily on his own takedowns in his recent victories. I’m not convinced Soriano’s improved to the same extent, especially since his most recent defeat came by rear naked choke. Though he might have the edge on the feet, he’ll have all sorts of trouble staying there against a naturally larger man with the tools to exploit his longstanding weaknesses.
Overcoming this many hurdles on short notice just seems beyond Soriano’s capabilities. Unless he can clip “The Spartan” early, Giagos puts him through the wrestling wringer for a wide decision win.
Prediction: Giagos via unanimous decision



185 lbs.: Ronaldo Souza vs. Andre Muniz

Ronaldo Souza (26-9) — who turned 41 this in Dec. 2020 — now finds himself just 2-5 in his last seven fights. His current three-fight losing streak includes a split decision loss to future Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz and a wild knockout defeat against Kevin Holland (watch it).
He gives up six inches of reach to “Sergipano.”
Though it took him two tries, the efforts from Andre Muniz (20-4) on “Contender Series” culminated in a UFC contract thanks to a 106-second submission of highly touted Taylor Johnson. He’s been similarly successful in the Octagon itself, most recently tapping Bartosz Fabinski with a bonus-winning arm bar in Sept. 2020.
Thirteen of his professional victories have come via submission.
It’s become clear that Souza can’t handle elite or semi-elite fighters anymore, but the jury’s out on whether he can handle middle-of-the-pack guys like Muniz. This may be nostalgia talking, but he should still be able to handle a straightforward grappling specialist, especially when his power gives him a considerable edge on the feet.
If Muniz were the sort of ultra-active, swarming ground artist that could sap Souza’s questionable gas tank, this would be the coffin nail for “Jacare’s” career. As is, Souza’s superior wrestling and heavy right hand should get him back in the win column.
Prediction: Souza via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! A Champion Will Be Crowned In Houston!

125 lbs.: Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin

Matt Schnell (15-5) went from losing his first two Octagon bouts to winning five of his next six and earning a post-fight bonus along the way. He was last seen in Jan. 2021, ending a year-long layoff with a split decision over Tyson Nam.
He stands three inches taller than Rogerio Bontorin (16-3) and sports a 5.5-inch reach advantage.
Bontorin followed his successful Contender Series bout with a massive upset of Magomed Bibulatov and wild cut stoppage of Raulian Paiva, punching his ticket into Flyweight contention. He’s since dropped a decision to an overweight Ray Borg and suffered a comeback knockout loss to Kai Kara-France.
He replaces Alex Perez on less than one month’s notice.
I underestimate Schnell often — I’ve picked against him in most (if not all) of his UFC fights, and I still think his iffy chin and limited defensive wrestling will keep him from ever touching contention. Unfortunately for my track record, I can’t convince myself to pick him here. Bontorin’s just too damn good a wrestler and submission artist, and Schnell’s chances of tapping him from his back are slim to none.
While that brutal loss to Kara-France has me worried, Schnell lacks that level of firepower and doesn’t have enough of a technical striking advantage to offset Bontorin’s superior ground skills. In the end, the Brazilian snaps his losing streak in a scramble-heavy effort.
Prediction: Bontorin via unanimous decision
Related
Win UFC Title, Still Be Second Best?

125 lbs.: Andrea Lee vs. Antonina Shevchenko

After strong runs in Invicta and Legacy, Andrea Lee (11-5) started her Octagon career with three consecutive wins, including a “Fight of the Night” decision over Veronica Macedo. Three straight losses followed, as she dropped competitive decisions to Joanne Calderwood, Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi.
“KGB” has submitted four professional foes and knocked out another two.
Antonina Shevchenko (9-2) — sister of UFC Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko — demolished Jaimee Nievera with knees to graduate from “Contender Series” in 2018. She’s since alternated wins and losses in the Octagon, including a one-sided decision over Ariane Lipski last time out.
Though she stands two inches taller than Lee, she gives up 2.5 inches of reach.
I’m not prepared to write off Lee as a bust yet — the Calderwood and Modafferi losses were competitive, while the Murphy “loss” was a flat-out robbery that every recorded member of the mixed martial arts (MMA) media scored for Lee. She’s definitely got more than enough to beat Shevchenko, whose victory over an equally inept grappler in Lipski failed to convince me that she’s fixed the wrestling issues that let Modafferi and Katlyn Chookagian run roughshod over her. Lee’s a solid takedown artist in her own right, giving her an easy out if Shevchenko ever starts building momentum.
Shevchenko’s non-existent bottom game is just too big a weakness for me to pick her against anyone capable of exploiting it, which Lee certainly is. Expect a fairly even striking match that Lee regularly interrupts with takedowns and lengthy stretches of top control to secure the decision.
Prediction: Lee via unanimous decision
Related
UFC 262 Poster Drops For ‘Oliveira Vs Chandler’

145 lbs.: Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy

It’s been a rough ride for Lando Vannata (11-5-2) since starting his Octagon career with a “Fight of the Night” against Tony Ferguson and a wheel kick finish of John Makdessi. The “Groovy” oneenters the cage this Saturday on a 2-4-1 skid, most recently falling to Bobby Green in a “Fight of the Night” rematch.
This will be his Featherweight debut.
Though a highly decorated wrestler, the hands of Mike Grundy (12-2) carried the day in his Octagon debut, which saw him stop countryman Nad Narimani late in the second round. Then came Movsar Evloev, who rode his own kickboxing to victory in a clash of rising prospects.
Eight of his professional victories have come by submission.
Yeah, dropping to 145 pounds may help Vannata avoid the sorts of grindfests Drakkar Klose and Marc Diakiese put him through, but it’s not a panacea. Unless his power jumps through the roof at the new weight, allowing him to decisively win the wild slugfests in which he’s enjoyed diminishing returns, his defensive lapses and shoddy cardio will still keep him well out of contention.
Plus, Grundy’s a good enough wrestler to school him on the mat anyway.
Winning this fight would require Vannata to either stuff the vast majority of Grundy’s takedowns or spark him out before he can get the ball rolling, and based on Vannata’s recent efforts, neither seems particularly likely. In short, Grundy racks up the top control en route to a one-sided decision.
Prediction: Grundy via unanimous decision

[Sanity Check]

LeMartin likes dogs for this 1.

[JC2008]

2 things to remember:

- Shit judging in Texas.
- They're still using the old rules I believe.

[hankcream]

Was planning on betting Dariush this morning - glad I didn't. Tony may have flustered him

[LBfightlife]

Initial thoughts including observations from press conference stare downs and interviews.


Chandler & Olivera

This fight reminds me of Benson Henderson VS Nate Diaz.. it was just too much horsepower for Nate although he had better boxing and jui jitsu.

Chandler is a hard dude. Powerful, really solid base and hips. His harder for sure and both guys have been KOd.. look at the Patricky pitbull KO. The guy throws concussive bricks with both hands. Seems to have a good speed change up

Chandler, didn't like him at first but he's a fkkn God fearing family man with a new kid. He's paid some dues in the Bush leauges.. I havent seen a ton of tape on him and was anti Chandler at first but He might be fully God's plan vibe here.

Chandler was focused very much on the belt almost mesmerized when Dana brought it out before the star down and olivera seemed more focused on Chandler.

Oliveera was saying he wants to prove he belongs here... he has a great win streak but also hasn't been fighting the top of the division that whole time.

Chandler wants to being the belt home to his son. Seems very focused on being champ.

Olivera couldn't match the stare after taking his glasses off.

Leaning Chandler rn. Will be watching more tape.


Tony & Beniel

1) Love Tony but as Jibby said, he's looked really off last couple fights and not letting his hands go. Judging from his speech and the interviews after how he was talking himself up it was like he was trying to convince himself of his greatness. Intierview with Okomodo after press conference Tony is still Salty AF "I haven't gotten my title shot and they took away my title and zeros off my check, they don't care about my family" I'm trying to make this an Olympic stort it needs to be regulated" .

Watching some of the other interviews he seems almost manic, that said he could be in a good place, you just never know, he seems like he might be over training to be honest if he never rests , at 37..

2) Beneil-dariush is a stand up guy, he goes all out for the finish. He's from Iran.. I don't know him pereonally but I know people who do in that community... he will not break, Tony will have to finish him.

3) Tony couldn't awnser his stare 100% even with shades. Beniel had the 1000 yard stare and Tony looked down once or maybe a couple times


Sad to say but I'm leaning Benny D on this one.. I might not play it who knows don't want to bet against Tony.

[pneumatic]

Does anyone know a reliable place to find info on public action for UFC? DraftKings sometimes posts a blog article that has a table of action and handle, but not always and not for UFC 262. thespread has great public action data for other sports but not combat sports.

[magpie878]

I've never once placed a bet based on a staredown, but whatever works.

Main event, to me, is only Oli by sub or Chandler by KO/TKO. NOT going distance (-345 on DK) feels like damn near as good a bet as it was for Reyes/Jiri.

Going to do small bet on Lee over Sis Shevchenko.

Grundy over Lando.

Will bet against Ferguson. No way I can put money on him anymore, and have done well against him the last two (though I thought if Oli won, it would be by sub.... almost). Gaethje was a cash cow over Ferguson.

Leaning Burgos too, but not sold on that one yet.

[LBfightlife]

When I saw Rousey break mentally/emotionally in the staredown against Holm I was confident she would lose. I placed a 3 unit bet at +700 based on that. I usually factor weigh ins and staredowns but that's just me personally .

I get what you are saying on Chandlers Gastank. Might play both sides on this one but Chandler by KO with a hedge on Oli by sub seems like the smart play here

[LBfightlife]

Are these "her picks"? I haven't followed her other than a host of those other two schmucks who were throwing me off my own analysis and usually lost every card I listened to them break down in 2020. Not sure about her credibility as a capper but like the analysis/logic.

LeMartin likes dogs for this 1.

[LBfightlife]

He did admit that Tony got under his skin with the helping Justin Gathje's camp comments

Was planning on betting Dariush this morning - glad I didn't. Tony may have flustered him

[PaperTrail07]

Man--I wish I could back Tony....but Dariush is WAY WAY WAY to skilled ---dont see an L here.....he is heavy as shit, good skills all around.....possibly finishes Ferg here....

[MaxEMillion]

It seems everyone is on Grundy. Why is that line holding steady/dropping like it is?

[Sanity Check]

It seems everyone is on Grundy. Why is that line holding steady/dropping like it is?

Casual remember Lando's fight with Tony Ferguson.

But forgot all of Lando's other fights?

[MaxEMillion]

Sportsbook.com has 99% of money on Grundy. Either books taking a haircut on this fight or its a trap line in my opinion.

I dont have any respect for Lando but this line smells horrible like someone knows something. Does Lando getting beaten up from the bottom help sell the PPV? I could almost argue the opposite. 15 minutes of talking about how this kickboxer stood with Tony is a great way to help sell the paid event. Maybe im over thinking the external stuff.

[Kermit]

Man--I wish I could back Tony....but Dariush is WAY WAY WAY to skilled ---dont see an L here.....he is heavy as shit, good skills all around.....possibly finishes Ferg here....

I'm with you.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Attending to a death in the family so haven't had much time or energy for capping recently. Won't be able to watch the fights tomorrow. GL all!

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler Picks:
Christos Giagos Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Kevin Aguilar Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Gina Mazany Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Jamie Pickett Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Andrea Lee Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Mike Grundy Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Jacare Souza Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Matt Schnell Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Shane Burgos Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Viviane Araujo Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Beneil Dariush Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Charles Oliveira Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler

Fight Pass Early Prelims:

Fight #1: Giagos vs. S. Soriano
No Bet

Fight #2: Aguilar vs. Lutz (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #3: Mazany vs. Cachoeira
No Bet

ESPN Prelims:

Fight #4: Pickett vs. Wright
No Bet

Fight #5: A. Lee vs. A. Shevchenko
No Bet

Fight #6: Grundy vs. Vannata
Grundy (-111) 1.67u to win 1.5u
Grundy+Vannata Draw (+6000) 0.05u

Hedge:
Vannata Round 1 (+650) 0.1u

Fight #7: J. Souza vs. Muniz
J. Souza Scorecards = No Action (-125) 0.25u to win 0.2u
J. Souza KO/TKO (+400) 0.1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Schnell vs. Bontorin
No Bet

Fight #9: Burgos vs. Barboza
No Bet

Fight #10: Araujo vs. Chookagian
No Bet

Fight #11: Dariush vs. Ferguson
No Bet

Fight #12: C. Oliveira vs. Chandler
No Bet