I get my edge in baseball prop bets from stats.
I have to disagree with you here Coach.
Case in point,
JD Martinez of the Red Sox destroys LHP
Probably the best hitter in the majors against lefties.
Tonight Martinez faces a LHP in Ryu (Toronto)
Martinez like I said destroys LHP.
These are his numbers v. LHP for the past three seasons.
The power numbers are insane, if he played a 162 game season against LHP he'd hi 60 or just about 60 HR's.
Season |
Name |
Tm |
G |
PA |
AB |
HR |
R |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
AVG |
0BA |
Total |
J.D. Martinez |
BOS |
181 |
378 |
328 |
29 |
70 |
79 |
42 |
79 |
0.344512 |
0.422 |
I don't see any player props posted yet.
Let's say the prop bet for JD tonight is
Will Martinez get a hit
Y -110
N -110
What's the first question are you going to ask yourself if you make a bet on this prop?
That's correct. "Can JD Martinez hit LHP. The answer is a resounding FUK YEAH
You may also be wondering can Martinez hit Ryu? Thee answer once again is yes. (.300 but a small sample size)
Those are the most important questions and answers you need to know about that prop bet.
If the prop is -110, and Martinez's history against LHP is chances are better than 1 out of every 3 at bats results in a hit, and pretty much sets a hit every three times vs, Ryu
Martinez is pretty much guaranteed 4 at bats tonight, and has better than a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit (based on historical statistical data)
Presented with this data, who has the edge here if the prop betting line is -110 man to man?
Baseball is pretty much stat driven.
Baseball analytics is coming to an informed conclusion on how a player or team most likely will perform when presented with all the facts and data.