[The Expert]

Steve I will repeat. You are the best baseball capper.

[stevenash]

Steve I will repeat. You are the best baseball capper.

Much appreciated words but as good as someone is in anything, there is always someone better.

When I go on a 4 for 14 cooler I bet you won't feel the same way.

Thank you for the words.

[Jerm3085]

Man Keller got outta that jam bases loaded 1-out with Trout coming up to plate, struck him out and then Walsh too

[stevenash]

He's an artist that Brad Keller is.

[The Expert]

Much appreciated words but as good as someone is in anything, there is always someone better.

When I go on a 4 for 14 cooler I bet you won't feel the same way.

Thank you for the words.

You can believe it or not, I will say the same. The worst thing about you for me is that in all recent season you disappeared at some point, no matter the results. I love reading you.

[stevenash]

You can believe it or not, I will say the same. The worst thing about you for me is that in all recent season you disappeared at some point, no matter the results. I love reading you.

I appreciate that.

Things happen is the summer is why I take breaks from here.
COVID restrictions will probably keep me posting for six months straight.

Yeah, about four years ago I was having a monster season picking, I was like 30 over in July or something like that.
Then things got real screwy at work and I had to put a crapload of time in there, then I went to Vegas for a concert......

Things happen in the summer man.

[stevenash]

OK my beloved Royals just went final.

I'm thinking about a Matt Harvey fade tonight.

I'll get back to that one as right now it's just a thought.

[gshock1]

OK my beloved Royals just went final.

I'm thinking about a Matt Harvey fade tonight.

I'll get back to that one as right now it's just a thought.

Was on same play. Harvey is rained out

[stevenash]

Was on same play. Harvey is rained out

Yeah, I just saw that.

That's all I had for tonight.

[stevenash]

12 game card today.
One double header (Seattle at Baltimore)

Six day games
Six night games.
I consider the second game of the Baltimore double header a night game.

YTD 10-4
(+6.86*)

Of the six day games four of them start between noon and 1pm.
Highly unusual you get 3 games that start an 12 noon

Four games I'm looking at.

I'm throwing out the Mets game.
deGrom is the best in the game today. Undisputable.
He's won back to back Cy Young's.
His last start he struck out 14 walked none and did with under 100 pitches.
He'll win another Cy Young this season too.

Two things.
Mets are -207 and the Mets give him virtually zero run support.

I can't bet a pitcher at -207 no matter how good he is if his team loses 1-0 on a regular basis (it seems) every time he starts.
Pass.

Even though SD's bats are in a funk right now I like them on the run line vs. Pitt
Paddack starts for SD he is the better starter here as Pitt starts Mitch Keller (not to be confused with Brad Keller)
Keller allows just too many base runners for SD not to score today, batting funk or no batting funk.

The Miami-Atlanta game is killing me.
Miami's got this kid that starts today that I think can be a staff ace soon or a solid #2 guy.
Trevor Williams, a left hander and he keeps progressing every start.
He's death on left handed batters, he'll neutralize freeman.
Thing is except for Freeman (LHB) the Atlanta heart of the order is right handed that hits all LHP well.
Like Ozuna, the next big thins Acuna, d'Arnauld, Austin Riley, and Albies (who's a switch hitter)

I just can't, I want to but passing.

Then there's the Matt Harvey fade option too in Baltimore.

Do the Red Sox win their tenth straight?
Quoting Crash Davis again in Bull Durham "respect the streak"
And to those who subscribe to the "they are due to lose theory" how exactly is that working out.
Sox keep winning and people keep fading them with the "they are due to fade" mantra. Laying up to -160 at times while doing so.
The "they are due to lose theory" has crippled many a bankroll.

Lastly.
This Indians/White Sox (like the Redskins I'll continue to call them the Indians) is very similar to yesterdays KC game.
A game that should be a pick IMO but the dog is +134.
And Civale is a very good starter.

I'm on both SD run line -110
and
Cleveland +134

I'll be back in awhile, I need to tend to the household duties.

[johnnyvegas13]

Tailing Padres

did half ml half rl

[johnnyvegas13]

El padrinoss lookin good Nash

[johnnyvegas13]

Nash u like over 8.5 tigers gm???

[Ryermkd]

El padrinoss lookin good Nash

You're worse than Moroni, don't make me break your neck.

[johnnyvegas13]

You're worse than Moroni, don't make me break your neck.

???

[stevenash]

Nash u like over 8.5 tigers gm???

I don't know Johnny.
On paper it looks like an over.
But...
a) Skubal is one of those funky lefties.
That's why I pay attention to games that start LHP, they can be funky all those left handers can. (I know, my wife is a lefty, so was my dad lol)

b) If you dig deeper into last season when he pitched the more you dig the more you realize he wasn't that bad.

c) That game is in Oakland where fly balls go to die.
Oakland is Death Valley for hitters, it's a pitchers park.

PARK	TEAM	wOBA	BA	HR	K	BB	BABIP
Kauffman Stadium	Royals	0.99	1.02	0.79	0.92	0.98	1.02
Marlins Park	Marlins	0.96	0.97	0.83	1	0.99	0.98
Oakland Coliseum	Athletics	0.95	0.95	0.83	1.01	0.99	0.97
Oracle Park	Giants	0.98	1	0.85	1.01	0.98	1.02
PNC Park	Pirates	0.99	1	0.86	0.97	1.01	1.01
Chase Field	Diamondbacks	1	1.01	0.88	0.97	0.99	1.02
Busch Stadium	Cardinals	0.97	0.98	0.9	0.95	1	0.97
Target Field	Twins	1	1.01	0.92	1	1.01	1.02
Comerica Park	Tigers	1	1.01	0.94	0.93	0.99	1
Tropicana Field	Rays	0.97	0.96	0.96	1.06	1.01	0.98
Truist Park	Braves	1	1.01	0.96	0.99	1.01	1.01
Globe Life Field	Rangers	1	1.01	0.98	0.99	1.03	1.01
Petco Park	Padres	0.98	0.97	0.98	1.01	1	0.97
Citi Field	Mets	0.96	0.95	0.99	1.06	0.99	0.96
Wrigley Field	Cubs	1.01	1.02	0.99	1	1	1.02
Minute Maid Park	Astros	0.98	0.97	1	1.06	1.01	0.98
Fenway Park	Red Sox	1.04	1.04	1.01	1	1	1.05
Progressive Field	Indians	1.02	1.03	1.02	1	1	1.03
Nationals Park	Nationals	1.01	1.01	1.04	1.01	1	1.01
Sahlen Field	Blue Jays	1.01	1.01	1.05	1.04	1	1.02
Angel Stadium of Anaheim	Angels	0.99	0.98	1.06	1.01	1.01	0.97
Miller Park	Brewers	1	0.99	1.06	1.04	1.01	0.99
Dodger Stadium	Dodgers	1.01	1.01	1.09	0.99	0.98	0.99
Rogers Centre	Blue Jays	1	0.99	1.09	1	1	0.97
T-Mobile Park	Mariners	0.98	0.96	1.09	1.06	0.99	0.96
Coors Field	Rockies	1.13	1.17	1.1	0.86	0.99	1.13
Oriole Park at Camden Yards	Orioles	1	1	1.11	0.98	0.99	0.97
TD Ballpark	Blue Jays	1.01	1	1.12	1.03	1	1
Citizens Bank Park	Phillies	1.01	0.99	1.13	1.01	1.01	0.98
Guaranteed Rate Field	White Sox	1.02	1	1.16	1.02	1.03	0.98
Great American Ball Park	Reds	1.02	1	1.19	1.05	1.01	1
Yankee Stadium	Yankees	1.02	1.01	1.19	1.01	1	0.98

https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors


and

d) Oakland's Manaea is a quality pitcher.
Forget about the first two starts. look at the whole body of work.
Manaea had a very solid 2018-2020
The important thing about analytics is analyzing ALL the facts to conclude an informed opinion.

So what you have here is
a) A funky lefty who can be tough to hit although the 'counting numbers' don't really show it.
b) The other pitcher is proven to be solid.
c) The game is being played in a difficult park to score runs and hit HR's in which is what I call "Death Valley" Oakland Coliseum.

Holy shit, I just made a case for the under 8.5 Johnny.

What can I tell ya Johnny, I'm just a geeky analytics nerd from way back.

Stay away from this total Johnny (hope that helps)

[spippen]

Nice work Nasher

[stevenash]

Nice work Nasher

Thank you sir, I appreciate that.

Hit both of the afternoon plays.
Indians score three late to win 4-2 (at +134)
SD easily cover the run line for me (even money)

YTD 12-4
+ 8.20*

I like Corbin and the Nats tonight, can't bet that though at -168
I don't bet run lines on home teams.
Pass

The dopey Dodgers are -270 at home.
When aren't the dopey Dodgers -270 at home?
Dopey is the one who lays -270 on any one individual stand alone baseball game.
Especially in April.
Pass

I like Madaea and Oakland at home
Can't lay the 65 cents though.
I see the total nudged down to 8.0 (see my above post to Johnny)
Sounds like a push to me. I don't play for pushes.
Pass.

TB should roll, I hate the -174 line.
Passing there.

I got nothing so far tonight.
If I get something I'll post it, but it looks like I'll take the 2-0 afternoon and crank it up again tomorrow.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Thoughts on Dodgers over 4.5 Runs?
Dodgers of course are on a tear and they are fairly disciplined at the plate. We get a lefty which always slows down these Dodgers but this guy has control issues and I’m thinking we can get 5 especially after them going to the pen early in the last two games

[stevenash]

Thoughts on Dodgers over 4.5 Runs?
Dodgers of course are on a tear and they are fairly disciplined at the plate. We get a lefty which always slows down these Dodgers but this guy has control issues and I’m thinking we can get 5 especially after them going to the pen early in the last two games

Problem with TT props betting the home team is you aren't going to get a ninth inning at bat.
At -270 it doesn't look like you're going to need the ninth.

So, the question is will LA score five runs (five is a win, four is a loss) in eight innings?

It's a crap shoot if you ask me.
50/50 give or take.

Best of luck in whatever you choose though.

[spippen]

Thank you sir, I appreciate that.

Hit both of the afternoon plays.
Indians score three late to win 4-2 (at +134)
SD easily cover the run line for me (even money)

YTD 12-4
+ 8.20*

I like Corbin and the Nats tonight, can't bet that though at -168
I don't bet run lines on home teams.
Pass

The dopey Dodgers are -270 at home.
When aren't the dopey Dodgers -270 at home?
Dopey is the one who lays -270 on any one individual stand alone baseball game.
Especially in April.
Pass

I like Madaea and Oakland at home
Can't lay the 65 cents though.
I see the total nudged down to 8.0 (see my above post to Johnny)
Sounds like a push to me. I don't play for pushes.
Pass.

TB should roll, I hate the -174 line.
Passing there.

I got nothing so far tonight.
If I get something I'll post it, but it looks like I'll take the 2-0 afternoon and crank it up again tomorrow.

Plus Rays have Rich "trash can" Hill on the mound. Good pass. Team hasn't been hitting at all either.

[stevenash]

Plus Rays have Rich "trash can" Hill on the mound. Good pass. Team hasn't been hitting at all either.

Yeah, I wasn't feeling that Rays game at all.
3-3 now. Pretty much what I expected 3-3 in the fifth, something like that.

I was watching the Red Sox earlier.
They almost pulled their tenth in a row out of their ass there.

I've been saying to anybody that'll listen that if Boston can hang around until the AS break, and get a healthy Sale back for the second half, they can easily grab a playoff spot.

How about my KC Royals! My first place Royals (for now anyways lol)

[Jayvegas420]

total pitching collapse by twins in the 8th.
Sox lookin strong!

[stevenash]

15 games today
1 Wrigley matinee
14 night games.

Hit both plays yesterday
Cleveland at +134
SD easily covered the run line

YTD
12-4
(+9.20*)

*correction*
post #193 reads +8.20*
The two plays yesterday netted 2.34* not 1.34*
Your pal Nasher made a simple arithmetic mistake.
Integrity and honesty counts for everything in this thread.

I don't get paid for posting here so I can't afford and editor so I will make an occasional brain farted mistake here or there.
But I digress.

I spent too much time on this Braves at Cubs game but it's really interesting.
You have a funky LHP (Smyly) pitching for Atlanta.
He has a history of giving up a crap load of homers.

And the Cubs start a seasoned RHP veteran Zach Davies.
Zach pretty much keeps the ball in the park.

There's a myth that Wrigley is a hitters ball park.
It is only a hitters park when the wind blows out,
When the wind blows in Wrigley is Death Valley where fly balls go to die.
(hmm, seems to me I've used that phrase before)

Anyways, I checked, the wind is blowing in.
Here.
https://baseballweather.digitalliquid.com/

Which is why the total is 7.5
When I saw that I said to myself "self, the wind must be blowing in this morning at the friendly confines"
Sure as shit (if shit can be sure) it is.

So this is a help to Smyly.
Who's still not the better starter here.

OK, I'll cut to the chase.
I'm leaning Cubs at home at +112
I'm not betting it yet even though this is one of those + money in a pick 'em game I seek out.

Davies is the better starter and RH bats crush Smyly.

Cubs or no play

4 hours to game time, let's watch the line movement and see if we can get better than +112.

Night games I'll look at in a bit.
I got things to do right now.

[frankieunits2685]

Kyle Wright will start for the injured Drew Smyly.

[stevenash]

Kyle Wright will start for the injured Drew Smyly.

Yep.

Heritage just took down Smyly and just listed Wright.

Heritage just adjusted the line to
-108 Atlanta
+100 Cubs

12 cent line movement

Total just nudged up to 8.0
The 'over' 8 is juiced a nickel.

Thanks for checking in Frankie

There's 40 minutes of my life I'll never get back

OK
I need to re-examine this game now as my game analysis just got blown up to the heavens.

Thanks again Frank

[stevenash]

Here's the update.
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=11506

The game is now a pick
IMO there is no edge now.
Cubs would have been the play if Smyly started, I think they would have bled him for 5 runs or so.
But that's a moot point.

Pass

[stevenash]

Thar Cubs 8 total is going to be close.
I passed on it but have the game on.
It's 5-2

OK tonight there are three 'rain outs'
KC game is PPD due to flooding in KC
Rockies game PPD winter conditions.
Same with the Boston game, 'winter conditions'.

My favorite 'rain out' is winter conditions.

I'm playing the find the affordable hamburger to fade tonight game.
There's a couple of them. Be back in a few.

I got your winter conditions right here pal.

[stevenash]

I like Max not at -190
PASS

I like Philly not at -140
PASS

I think the Yanks will smack Wacha around
PASS at -150

Same with Oakland, their bats should be busy tonight too.
I do like Montas
PASS at -180

Two bettable games IMO
Either Houston or Minnesota.

I like the Twins tonight at + 111 on the road.

No time for long write up
What's that? Thank God you say?

Two lefties, Twins line up crushes lefties.
More so than Ohtani and Trout.
Ohtani's is a lefty batter and his LHP splits are just OK
Trout is Trout.

Twins +111 is IMP a pretty good value.

TWINS +111

You guys know my YTD and all by now.
Best of luck.

I'll talk about the late night SD/LA game later.

[stevenash]

Twins shit the bed for me last night.
That was a bad pick on my part looking back.
I don't like making bad picks but it happens every now and then.

YTD 12-5 (+8.20*)

I'm looking at this KC/Tor game later.
They play a doubleheader today.
The first game of the twin bill features a couple of funky lefties.
(Mike Minor and Steven Matz)
I looked at the starting line ups and the Blue Jays are starting all RH batters.
1-9 are all strict right handed not even a switch hitter.
Man, After Guriel that bottom half of the order stinks. It's terrible.

I'm thinking both pitchers keep in the park as they are funky LHP and the 'K' is a graveyard.
You need to crush the ball to get it out in KC

The game is a pick and that's a pretty sharp line.
I was thinking 'under' until I saw 6.5
I don't like these 7 inning 'softball' double header rules,
It fuks up my handicapping, for years I've been 'capping nine inning games with bullpens.
Seven inning games a hot pitcher can throw all seven.

I may make a small wager under here.
Nothing yet I hate that seven inning rule.
Just a thought, Toronto's line up is all righty, Mike Matheny could be a dickhead and pull the lefty Minor after one batter and bring in a righty long man reliever or a righty sport starter.
That would not go over pretty well in Toronto.

Why is Glasnow only +100?
Yankees lineup is not in rhythm yet, it's flawed and after three starts Glasnow is the best starter in the game.
(As of right now )
Here's the link, Glasnow has been lights out all three starts so far.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ate=2021-12-31

IMO Glasnow should be -120 not +100
What am I missing here?
Hey, I'm not perfect, feels like I am overlooking something because that line is weird if you ask me.

Passing for now until I figure this out.
Total 7.5 is a ballbuster tough line to bet too.

[stackz125]

I do like the Jays but this same thought came to my mind as well...

"Man, After Guriel that bottom half of the order stinks. It's terrible.

[Smoke]

Going with the royals gm1

[stevenash]

I do like the Jays but this same thought came to my mind as well...

"Man, After Guriel that bottom half of the order stinks. It's terrible.

Yeah man, you get past the top half of the order you don't have to worry about shit.

And as I type this the dopey catcher hits a solo job right after I said to myself "watch the bottom half win this game for them"

[stevenash]

Going with the royals gm1

Yeah, solid play.

[jjgold]

Common theme dogs