1. #4901
    mrginandtonic
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    Good morning sir, hope all is well. I have a question about workouts that I always wanted to know. As a trainer, how do you determine what kind of workout that a horse needs (ie distance, breezing or gate, etc) some horses would have a ton of published workouts and some will have only 3..... why is that? Thank you and stay safe. Sorry if this topic has been addressed before.

  2. #4902
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Good morning sir, hope all is well. I have a question about workouts that I always wanted to know. As a trainer, how do you determine what kind of workout that a horse needs (ie distance, breezing or gate, etc) some horses would have a ton of published workouts and some will have only 3..... why is that? Thank you and stay safe. Sorry if this topic has been addressed before.
    Hi Mr. G and T.
    Great to hear from you.

    This is a two answer question I think. Let's start here:

    Q. As a trainer, how do you determine what kind of workout that a horse needs (ie distance, breezing or gate, etc)

    A. The longer works in distance is what the horse might need for stamina or relaxation while the short works like a 1/2 mile are maintenance breezes and the 3/8ths work a sharpener for a " be on your toes" early in the race possibility as well as an alert to the horse that a race is in a couple of days.
    The breezing, handily, etc. is partially a function of the individual horse as some are willing to go all out while other horses only have limited interest. Gate is for blinker work, or if the horse acted up in the gate or broke poorly last out and was put on the starters list to practice before the next start or, a lot of the times it is a firster prepping to run for the 1st time. They need a gate (OK) card to enter for the 1st time. That is a fine line though as too much gate breaking with the bell can fry a horse mentally. Got to be careful there.




    Q. some horses would have a ton of published workouts and some will have only 3..... why is that?



    A. Two things come into play. First is how the trainer operates. This could he the way they were taught or how the evolved along the way. Some trainers are all into workouts. And with a subset to that, some are all about working fast. Others are just as in to workouts but want to reserve early in the work and finish up strongly. That can create slower times overall but typically faster last 1/4 miles. ( That is one of the things you cannot see in the form).
    In order to best understand as much as you can about a workout, you would need to know the trainer and their tendencies. This is really important IMO.
    Questions still arise though such as, did they work in company and if so, did they break off the pole even with company or was one or even more than one, a length or two/three back early? And if even off the pole to start, who was inside and who was outside. Also did one of them have an exercise rider and the other a jockey? And did one or both have lasix and the other not? And who won the workout?

    Further, was the work conducted just after harrowing the track when it was all fresh and cleaned up allowing for a faster time, like when a race occurs or did the work occur near the end of the morning or just before the break to re harrow the surface and the track was all cuppy and chopped up like a beach on busy Sunday afternoon which typically leads to a slower time?

    As you can see, the amount of info given with workouts is a bare minimum. And with it, those that rely on them are really left to assume more than they should be expected to. It is this kind of thing that keeps me from putting very much stock in those works. Yes, it is nice to see them 3-4-5 days before a race. That tells you the horse has been on schedule to race in the race it is in. But short of that, there isn't much else to bank on IMO. Also, sometimes the firster or horse off a layoff can be training at a track on a farm for instance, that does not report workouts, then move to a track that does 3-4 weeks before it runs. That can create lesser reported works.

    The trainer that does not work a lot of horses is not necessarily sending out a short horse. They can be approaching the race from a different angle.
    What I would suggest is seeing if the horse has run well recently with the same pattern it comes into for this race. If so, you have what you need. If not, well, more questions about that horse needs to be asked.

    If it is a firster or horse off an extended layoff, check the trainers stats to see how they fair with those types of stats. See who is riding the horse. There can be a tell within the jockey as well. For instance, you have an Ortiz riding a horse that only has three slow works. Rest assured, he would not be on that horse if it was not ready to run well. Conversely, you have a trainer that typically gets an Ortiz to ride for them and the horse is being ridden first out or off the layoff by someone they typically do not use with a low percentage and Ortiz ( or whoever accurately fits that description) has another mount in the race . Hmmm. I'd tend to look elsewhere.
    Who is riding the horse can speak volumes when it comes to lengthy layoffs or firsters.

    Hope that helps and feel free to follow up.
    Take care Mr. G and T.

  3. #4903
    mrginandtonic
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Hi Mr. G and T.
    Great to hear from you.

    This is a two answer question I think. Let's start here:

    Q. As a trainer, how do you determine what kind of workout that a horse needs (ie distance, breezing or gate, etc)

    A. The longer works in distance is what the horse might need for stamina or relaxation while the short works like a 1/2 mile are maintenance breezes and the 3/8ths work a sharpener for a " be on your toes" early in the race possibility as well as an alert to the horse that a race is in a couple of days.
    The breezing, handily, etc. is partially a function of the individual horse as some are willing to go all out while other horses only have limited interest. Gate is for blinker work, or if the horse acted up in the gate or broke poorly last out and was put on the starters list to practice before the next start or, a lot of the times it is a firster prepping to run for the 1st time. They need a gate (OK) card to enter for the 1st time. That is a fine line though as too much gate breaking with the bell can fry a horse mentally. Got to be careful there.




    Q. some horses would have a ton of published workouts and some will have only 3..... why is that?



    A. Two things come into play. First is how the trainer operates. This could he the way they were taught or how the evolved along the way. Some trainers are all into workouts. And with a subset to that, some are all about working fast. Others are just as in to workouts but want to reserve early in the work and finish up strongly. That can create slower times overall but typically faster last 1/4 miles. ( That is one of the things you cannot see in the form).
    In order to best understand as much as you can about a workout, you would need to know the trainer and their tendencies. This is really important IMO.
    Questions still arise though such as, did they work in company and if so, did they break off the pole even with company or was one or even more than one, a length or two/three back early? And if even off the pole to start, who was inside and who was outside. Also did one of them have an exercise rider and the other a jockey? And did one or both have lasix and the other not? And who won the workout?

    Further, was the work conducted just after harrowing the track when it was all fresh and cleaned up allowing for a faster time, like when a race occurs or did the work occur near the end of the morning or just before the break to re harrow the surface and the track was all cuppy and chopped up like a beach on busy Sunday afternoon which typically leads to a slower time?

    As you can see, the amount of info given with workouts is a bare minimum. And with it, those that rely on them are really left to assume more than they should be expected to. It is this kind of thing that keeps me from putting very much stock in those works. Yes, it is nice to see them 3-4-5 days before a race. That tells you the horse has been on schedule to race in the race it is in. But short of that, there isn't much else to bank on IMO. Also, sometimes the firster or horse off a layoff can be training at a track on a farm for instance, that does not report workouts, then move to a track that does 3-4 weeks before it runs. That can create lesser reported works.

    The trainer that does not work a lot of horses is not necessarily sending out a short horse. They can be approaching the race from a different angle.
    What I would suggest is seeing if the horse has run well recently with the same pattern it comes into for this race. If so, you have what you need. If not, well, more questions about that horse needs to be asked.

    If it is a firster or horse off an extended layoff, check the trainers stats to see how they fair with those types of stats. See who is riding the horse. There can be a tell within the jockey as well. For instance, you have an Ortiz riding a horse that only has three slow works. Rest assured, he would not be on that horse if it was not ready to run well. Conversely, you have a trainer that typically gets an Ortiz to ride for them and the horse is being ridden first out or off the layoff by someone they typically do not use with a low percentage and Ortiz ( or whoever accurately fits that description) has another mount in the race . Hmmm. I'd tend to look elsewhere.
    Who is riding the horse can speak volumes when it comes to lengthy layoffs or firsters.

    Hope that helps and feel free to follow up.
    Take care Mr. G and T.
    Thank you very much for your detailed explanations. I personally don’t take too much on the workouts like you said there is so much behind it. Unless maybe if I purchase the clocker report, then I will just note there were workouts and was it out of the gate. I do have notes on certain trainers “habits or tendencies “ and that’s why I only play about 2 tracks. This question comes up because every year with Keeneland we have all these first time starters that reminded me of my curiosity. Your explanations didn’t change how I looked at workouts except to confirm the way I viewed them. Thanks again for you time, and always helpful.

    MrG&T

  4. #4904
    JBEX
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    hey str
    aqu R2 #4 mo girl (8-1)

    thought you'd find interesting ..1st time starter,expensive,big pedigree and trainer vey solid (pletcher disciple)..steady works back to january capped off with a bullet 4f..if your going to send a filly a 1 1/8 on the turf first out guess it's good to have some credentials..think it's a little intriguing they'd start her off going so long..what do you think ?

  5. #4905
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    hey str
    aqu R2 #4 mo girl (8-1)

    thought you'd find interesting ..1st time starter,expensive,big pedigree and trainer vey solid (pletcher disciple)..steady works back to january capped off with a bullet 4f..if your going to send a filly a 1 1/8 on the turf first out guess it's good to have some credentials..think it's a little intriguing they'd start her off going so long..what do you think ?
    I agree. I can understand a mile ( if they write those there) or a 1 1/16th but 1 1/8th? I would need to know if they indeed write those shorter route distances there to make a full determination. Starting horses for the first time going 1 1/8th is usually reserved for the fairly slow horses early on. Doubt that is the case here by Uncle Mo who can win first out . Interesting indeed.

  6. #4906
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I agree. I can understand a mile ( if they write those there) or a 1 1/16th but 1 1/8th? I would need to know if they indeed write those shorter route distances there to make a full determination. Starting horses for the first time going 1 1/8th is usually reserved for the fairly slow horses early on. Doubt that is the case here by Uncle Mo who can win first out . Interesting indeed.
    was thinking that..for fillies it's the only msw turf route written for 4/1 -4/18..that probably explains it and kind of makes sense (the one race) as it is aqueduct
    Last edited by JBEX; 04-10-21 at 11:57 AM.

  7. #4907
    JBEX
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    thought you'd like this when you have a little time..89 breeders cup classic pre-race to post race interviews..know you're fond of chris mccarron and he got the mount on sunday silence as pat valenzuela was suspended for a drug violation..his brother gregg and jack van berg do some commentary..the trainers,farms and rival owners..was a very entertaining 34 minutes..great race also with his nemesis easy goer..think if he had the outside post and gotten out ok he'd won that race..breaking slow from the inside something ss would probably have an easier time adjusting to


    https://youtu.be/PF3V6KM0Gyc

  8. #4908
    JBEX
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    one other thing ..at about 22:50 they zoom in on easy goer for about 2 seconds..this seemed to be right around the time he started to make his move..doesn't it seem like he's moving very fluently at that point..like he's just skipping along ?? maybe analogous to a baseball player with a sweet swing

  9. #4909
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    one other thing ..at about 22:50 they zoom in on easy goer for about 2 seconds..this seemed to be right around the time he started to make his move..doesn't it seem like he's moving very fluently at that point..like he's just skipping along ?? maybe analogous to a baseball player with a sweet swing
    Yes. He IS moving very fluently at that point. The rider has just started to ask him ever so lightly. Not a full drive at all, but just the first step of a three step process with his hands. You can see his hands moving WITH his neck instead of hands still while the neck extends each stride.
    When he gets within a 1/2 length of Chris, Chris then does the same thing with his hands to his horse. It is subtle, but having seen him ride a ton of races in Md. it is vintage Chris. No way he is going to let that horse get near his right eye and possibly take his momentum and position. It's classic cat and mouse . Because of Easy Goer's size, it takes longer for him to get in each gear when asked by the rider than it does Chris's horse. That's why Chris gets away and it takes until the 1/8th pole for Easy Goer to make that last move.

    Very cool to see again. BTW, my first win picture with a horse as a groom was with Greg McCarron riding at Pimlico. Good to hear both of there voices . It's been a couple years at least since I had heard them.
    Also, the game face Chris had walking back to the gate was unreal! Man was he dead serious in that moment.

    Thanks JBEX. Really appreciate it.
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  10. #4910
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Yes. He IS moving very fluently at that point. The rider has just started to ask him ever so lightly. Not a full drive at all, but just the first step of a three step process with his hands. You can see his hands moving WITH his neck instead of hands still while the neck extends each stride.
    When he gets within a 1/2 length of Chris, Chris then does the same thing with his hands to his horse. It is subtle, but having seen him ride a ton of races in Md. it is vintage Chris. No way he is going to let that horse get near his right eye and possibly take his momentum and position. It's classic cat and mouse . Because of Easy Goer's size, it takes longer for him to get in each gear when asked by the rider than it does Chris's horse. That's why Chris gets away and it takes until the 1/8th pole for Easy Goer to make that last move.

    Very cool to see again. BTW, my first win picture with a horse as a groom was with Greg McCarron riding at Pimlico. Good to hear both of there voices . It's been a couple years at least since I had heard them.
    Also, the game face Chris had walking back to the gate was unreal! Man was he dead serious in that moment.

    Thanks JBEX. Really appreciate it.
    no problem str and glad it brought up some good memories for you..remember how we once discussed easy goer doesn't have that quick turn-of-foot and takes longer to get up to top speed..a big part of that win was chris being aggressive as you said at that point of the race..I would guess also a slow break is easier to recover from for a nimbler horse like sunday silence..was a terrific rivalry and they were a couple of great horses

  11. #4911
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    hey str


    kee R1 #3 lady nakaru (8-1)

    wanted your opinion on this one as a longshot..if you can't I did a write-up lol

    negatives first (imo of course)

    terrible trainer % and roi

    bad turf jockey but limited opportunities .. he did ride him well at kentucky downs last year

    horse is 1/21 but they havent put him up for sale in at least his last 10 races


    positives imo factoring in potential price...

    like the even back of the pack runs at middle distances as a primer to go much further today..with the works in between should be nice and fit


    ran a big race 3rd off the layoff last year and the race that preceded it was an even towards the back race at this distance and track ..similar to his prior race and today also 3rd off a layoff

    followed that with a solid attempt at kentucky downs which is not an easy track..


    being by animal kingdom who won the derby might like the marathon distance ..bluegrass cat dam sire also ran big at marathon distances..2nd derby,belmont and travers


    like the idea of changing it up with this kind of horse (repeated allowance loser) maybe the extra ground and slower pace will suit him better

  12. #4912
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    hey str


    kee R1 #3 lady nakaru (8-1)

    wanted your opinion on this one as a longshot..if you can't I did a write-up lol

    negatives first (imo of course)

    terrible trainer % and roi

    bad turf jockey but limited opportunities .. he did ride him well at kentucky downs last year

    horse is 1/21 but they havent put him up for sale in at least his last 10 races


    positives imo factoring in potential price...

    like the even back of the pack runs at middle distances as a primer to go much further today..with the works in between should be nice and fit


    ran a big race 3rd off the layoff last year and the race that preceded it was an even towards the back race at this distance and track ..similar to his prior race and today also 3rd off a layoff

    followed that with a solid attempt at kentucky downs which is not an easy track..


    being by animal kingdom who won the derby might like the marathon distance ..bluegrass cat dam sire also ran big at marathon distances..2nd derby,belmont and travers


    like the idea of changing it up with this kind of horse (repeated allowance loser) maybe the extra ground and slower pace will suit him better
    Just saw it is a scratch but will comment on your comments a bit later.

    Thanks JBEX.

  13. #4913
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Just saw it is a scratch but will comment on your comments a bit later.

    Thanks JBEX.
    ok sounds good

  14. #4914
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    hey str


    kee R1 #3 lady nakaru (8-1)

    wanted your opinion on this one as a longshot..if you can't I did a write-up lol

    negatives first (imo of course)

    terrible trainer % and roi

    bad turf jockey but limited opportunities .. he did ride him well at kentucky downs last year

    horse is 1/21 but they havent put him up for sale in at least his last 10 races


    positives imo factoring in potential price...

    like the even back of the pack runs at middle distances as a primer to go much further today..with the works in between should be nice and fit


    ran a big race 3rd off the layoff last year and the race that preceded it was an even towards the back race at this distance and track ..similar to his prior race and today also 3rd off a layoff

    followed that with a solid attempt at kentucky downs which is not an easy track..


    being by animal kingdom who won the derby might like the marathon distance ..bluegrass cat dam sire also ran big at marathon distances..2nd derby,belmont and travers


    like the idea of changing it up with this kind of horse (repeated allowance loser) maybe the extra ground and slower pace will suit him better

    Some opinions on your comments. And this is more for the player that is learning or searching for a fresh way to look at a race.

    "terrible trainer % and roi"

    With this info available, you must always consider it.



    "bad turf jockey but limited opportunities .. he did ride him well at kentucky downs last year"

    This is important as well. The best angle for this is when the jockey is excellent on the turf and average on the dirt. That's a huge advantage.



    "horse is 1/21 but they havent put him up for sale in at least his last 10 races"

    Usually a sign of a trainer that really is not focused on making money. A small trainer that's just there training. It can also be an owner calling the shots. Tough to bet on those IMO unless the horse/ trainer combo has attempted this before with solid results which this one has.



    positives imo factoring in potential price...

    like the even back of the pack runs at middle distances as a primer to go much further today..with the works in between should be nice and fit

    Absolutely. 3rd of the layoff is a great angle. Stretching out further is better still.
    This is especially true at minor tracks like CharlesTown. They don't need to be stretching out there. Reason being is those small outfits will run there horses fit. So a 4 1/2F 3rd off the layoff that has not shown much can be a solid play at a nice price. It happens all the time there.
    Bad first back, better but still not so good evenly race 2nd out and bang, big 3rd race. Gotta consider taking a shot on those at a price.


    "ran a big race 3rd off the layoff last year and the race that preceded it was an even towards the back race at this distance and track ..similar to his prior race and today also 3rd off a layoff"
    followed that with a solid attempt at kentucky downs which is not an easy track..

    Yes ! It's right there to see. Totally agree.


    being by animal kingdom who won the derby might like the marathon distance ..bluegrass cat dam sire also ran big at marathon distances..2nd derby,belmont and travers

    Bred to run all day. Another positive for sure.


    like the idea of changing it up with this kind of horse (repeated allowance loser) maybe the extra ground and slower pace will suit him better


    agree again. And a faster early pace with the speed coming back to the horse would help things even more.

    All in all, really solid tools to try and dig out longshots. These should be tools in every handicappers belt.

    It's stuff like this that helps separate a handicapper a darn good handicapper. IMO, great find JBEX.

    Hope this helps some of the forum down the road.

    GL everyone.

  15. #4915
    Louisvillekid1
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    Hope everybody doing well, dutrow is loaded this year ...

    He's gotta be having fun

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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Hope everybody doing well, dutrow is loaded this year ...

    He's gotta be having fun
    hey kid..hope all is well with you also

  17. #4917
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Some opinions on your comments. And this is more for the player that is learning or searching for a fresh way to look at a race.

    "terrible trainer % and roi"

    With this info available, you must always consider it.



    "bad turf jockey but limited opportunities .. he did ride him well at kentucky downs last year"

    This is important as well. The best angle for this is when the jockey is excellent on the turf and average on the dirt. That's a huge advantage.



    "horse is 1/21 but they havent put him up for sale in at least his last 10 races"

    Usually a sign of a trainer that really is not focused on making money. A small trainer that's just there training. It can also be an owner calling the shots. Tough to bet on those IMO unless the horse/ trainer combo has attempted this before with solid results which this one has.



    positives imo factoring in potential price...

    like the even back of the pack runs at middle distances as a primer to go much further today..with the works in between should be nice and fit

    Absolutely. 3rd of the layoff is a great angle. Stretching out further is better still.
    This is especially true at minor tracks like CharlesTown. They don't need to be stretching out there. Reason being is those small outfits will run there horses fit. So a 4 1/2F 3rd off the layoff that has not shown much can be a solid play at a nice price. It happens all the time there.
    Bad first back, better but still not so good evenly race 2nd out and bang, big 3rd race. Gotta consider taking a shot on those at a price.


    "ran a big race 3rd off the layoff last year and the race that preceded it was an even towards the back race at this distance and track ..similar to his prior race and today also 3rd off a layoff"
    followed that with a solid attempt at kentucky downs which is not an easy track..

    Yes ! It's right there to see. Totally agree.


    being by animal kingdom who won the derby might like the marathon distance ..bluegrass cat dam sire also ran big at marathon distances..2nd derby,belmont and travers

    Bred to run all day. Another positive for sure.


    like the idea of changing it up with this kind of horse (repeated allowance loser) maybe the extra ground and slower pace will suit him better


    agree again. And a faster early pace with the speed coming back to the horse would help things even more.

    All in all, really solid tools to try and dig out longshots. These should be tools in every handicappers belt.

    It's stuff like this that helps separate a handicapper a darn good handicapper. IMO, great find JBEX.

    Hope this helps some of the forum down the road.

    GL everyone.
    appreciate the feedback str..thought the weakest point was the horse not being dropped as a positive also..maybe a horse in the 6-10 race range (depending on when it broke it's maiden) but 21 too much..was thinking that maybe an owner who has the resources looks at it like a project..hoping to recoup at least some of the expenses and figuring they may discover something over the course of the year if they keep experimenting

  18. #4918
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Hope everybody doing well, dutrow is loaded this year ...

    He's gotta be having fun
    Hey LKID what's going on? hopefully you will post more?

  19. #4919
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Hope everybody doing well, dutrow is loaded this year ...

    He's gotta be having fun
    It's great to see you check in Kid !

    I hope this post finds you well.

    As you can see, we miss you around here.

    TD is indeed having a nice year.

    Spoke with him recently and he's very excited and always appreciative of the good fortune and opportunity.

    It's a funny game Kid.

    You just never know.

    You just gotta keep working.

    And yes, he is indeed having fun. You can hear it in his voice.

    You take care. It's always a pleasure my friend.

  20. #4920
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    hello,

    I'm new on horse races and i saw some races that have strange odds, for example a friend of me placed and won a bet with odds 725.. it that possible? i checked some of them and i saw that there are many races like this.. can you explain me how it works and what factors could give so high odds?

  21. #4921
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    Quote Originally Posted by billax View Post
    hello,

    I'm new on horse races and i saw some races that have strange odds, for example a friend of me placed and won a bet with odds 725.. it that possible? i checked some of them and i saw that there are many races like this.. can you explain me how it works and what factors could give so high odds?
    I've seen in the 500's in hong kong..what was the venue ? maybe an extra or trifecta and that was the payoff for 1 unit bet ?
    Last edited by JBEX; 04-26-21 at 05:53 PM.

  22. #4922
    billax
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    I've seen in the 500's in hong kong..what was the venue ? maybe an extra or trifecta and that was the payoff for 1 unit bet ?
    hi,
    I it was a French race, le lions D'angers, 19th April the last race but i saw that for many races like 17:10 Auteuil (France) 25 Apr 2021 Nexon Handicap Chase it is very common to have very high odds (more then 700/1 for N°14 Cidjie Dangles) ,
    How can this happen, is it something common the ''end of the day'' races to have so high odds with low stakes?

  23. #4923
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by billax View Post
    hi,
    I it was a French race, le lions D'angers, 19th April the last race but i saw that for many races like 17:10 Auteuil (France) 25 Apr 2021 Nexon Handicap Chase it is very common to have very high odds (more then 700/1 for N°14 Cidjie Dangles) ,
    How can this happen, is it something common the ''end of the day'' races to have so high odds with low stakes?

    I think wih hong kong it's because the pools are the largest in the world.. i am guessing you are referring to major french racing which would probably attract big pools.. not a regular euro watcher but I know some of those hurdle and chase races have huge fields...are you referring to pari-mutuel or bookmaker... was assuming the former but just making sure. I know little of how the latter works but many others in here do.. below a link to the highest price in the history of british/irish racing and it happened last year



    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...n-horse-racing

  24. #4924
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Hey STR: If you get a chance to look over the form by SAT Hit SBR Nation with your KYD selection. Interested to see whom you like. Thx in advance.

  25. #4925
    Thunderground
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    Hey str, long time.

    I just have a question about horse shoes. Who does this job normally, and is it a precision job or more of a routine job without too much attention to detail? Reason I'm asking is that, to my mind, the tiniest angle error at the ankle becomes magnified at the knees, and even more so at the hips. So I'm just wondering if that is true and where that would rank in terms of the horse's health and racing ability.

    (I find it annoying to walk on a shoe that is slightly off, and I only have two legs. Can't imagine what it would be like on four).

  26. #4926
    Easy-Rider 66
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    There's one other concern I have with Essential Quality, and that's the fact he paddles with his left front leg. This stride abnormality hasn't been an issue for Essential Quality so far, but as a general rule, paddling can make it difficult for horses to stretch out over extended distances. There's a part of me that wonders if the 1 1/4-mile journey of the Kentucky Derby will prove challenging for Essential Quality to negotiate, especially if he receives a tricky trip.

    Hey STR this a take from Blood horse on the KYD Derby favorite. do you agree with this sentiment? thx

  27. #4927
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by billax View Post
    hi,
    I it was a French race, le lions D'angers, 19th April the last race but i saw that for many races like 17:10 Auteuil (France) 25 Apr 2021 Nexon Handicap Chase it is very common to have very high odds (more then 700/1 for N°14 Cidjie Dangles) ,
    How can this happen, is it something common the ''end of the day'' races to have so high odds with low stakes?
    I do apologize for not answering sooner. What an insane week for me.

    It looks like JBEX answered this as well if not better than I could have. I honestly have paid no attention to Hong Kong racing. Others in this forum have and I would value their responses. I do agree that over there, you can play some very high longshots. That just doesn't happen in the USA.
    Best of luck in the game and thanks for the question.

  28. #4928
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Hey STR: If you get a chance to look over the form by SAT Hit SBR Nation with your KYD selection. Interested to see whom you like. Thx in advance.
    I wish I had time for a write up although this year is a crazy scramble so it seems with some late major players not running.

    I am going to pick Medina Spirit.

    Who do you like Easy?
    Points Awarded:

    canepole gave str 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  29. #4929
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderground View Post
    Hey str, long time.

    I just have a question about horse shoes. Who does this job normally, and is it a precision job or more of a routine job without too much attention to detail? Reason I'm asking is that, to my mind, the tiniest angle error at the ankle becomes magnified at the knees, and even more so at the hips. So I'm just wondering if that is true and where that would rank in terms of the horse's health and racing ability.

    (I find it annoying to walk on a shoe that is slightly off, and I only have two legs. Can't imagine what it would be like on four).
    It has been a long time. Great to hear from you. Hope all is well.

    If you don't mind, let me get to this hopefully tomorrow. If not, very soon. A great question that deserves a my full attention to give you an answer you can do something with.

    Good luck today in the Ky. Derby.

  30. #4930
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I wish I had time for a write up although this year is a crazy scramble so it seems with some late major players not running.

    I am going to pick Medina Spirit.

    Who do you like Easy?
    ok STR. a Baffert Pony. LOL taking a shot with the #4 Keepmeinmind and the #11 Dynamic One. current odds 47/1 and 37/1. Good luck.

  31. #4931
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    There's one other concern I have with Essential Quality, and that's the fact he paddles with his left front leg. This stride abnormality hasn't been an issue for Essential Quality so far, but as a general rule, paddling can make it difficult for horses to stretch out over extended distances. There's a part of me that wonders if the 1 1/4-mile journey of the Kentucky Derby will prove challenging for Essential Quality to negotiate, especially if he receives a tricky trip.

    Hey STR this a take from Blood horse on the KYD Derby favorite. do you agree with this sentiment? thx
    I guess I do agree at least somewhat. But a lot of this is a by product of the horses sire and dam and the inherent traits that comes with that. But without getting into all that, and I am happy to if you would like, it is more movement, more action, and therefore, more energy that has to be used when the horse is crooked legged and paddles from toeing inward.

    To feel the movement simply put you hands down at your sides and reach out with them. Now, repeat the same thing but... turn your knuckles of you open hand to about 2 o'clock on the dial for the left hand and 10 o'clock on the dial with the right hand and repeat the reaching out. You can instantly feel the difference and the added effort it takes.
    Because of todays added distance, I get the theory. But he either can or he can't. I doubt that paddling gets him beat although if he gets past late, they will swear that was it. If that happens, we can analyze it some more.

  32. #4932
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    ok STR. a Baffert Pony. LOL taking a shot with the #4 Keepmeinmind and the #11 Dynamic One. current odds 47/1 and 37/1. Good luck.
    Yep. I'll take 15-1 on that ..... (you fill it in, you already know how I feel). And we all know that Calif. horses have been dominating in this race for awhile now.


    Wish I had time this week to put into the race. I just didn't.
    GL to you Easy.

    GL Easy !

  33. #4933
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I guess I do agree at least somewhat. But a lot of this is a by product of the horses sire and dam and the inherent traits that comes with that. But without getting into all that, and I am happy to if you would like, it is more movement, more action, and therefore, more energy that has to be used when the horse is crooked legged and paddles from toeing inward.

    To feel the movement simply put you hands down at your sides and reach out with them. Now, repeat the same thing but... turn your knuckles of you open hand to about 2 o'clock on the dial for the left hand and 10 o'clock on the dial with the right hand and repeat the reaching out. You can instantly feel the difference and the added effort it takes.
    Because of todays added distance, I get the theory. But he either can or he can't. I doubt that paddling gets him beat although if he gets past late, they will swear that was it. If that happens, we can analyze it some more.
    OK STR thx for the explanation. if applicable may follow up tomorrow after the race is run.

  34. #4934
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Yep. I'll take 15-1 on that ..... (you fill it in, you already know how I feel). And we all know that Calif. horses have been dominating in this race for awhile now.


    Wish I had time this week to put into the race. I just didn't.
    GL to you Easy.

    GL Easy !
    yeah valid points. your horse has that early speed. I am hoping for a pace melt down with my 2 horses closing ground late. GL to you as well.

  35. #4935
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I wish I had time for a write up although this year is a crazy scramble so it seems with some late major players not running.

    I am going to pick Medina Spirit.

    Who do you like Easy?
    good call STR wire to wire winner.

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