Long time lurker, sometime poster. Started a text group with a couple of friends to share ideas for NBA picks. We started to focus on 3 pointers made by individual players but discuss other plays.
Today's Pick: CJ McCollum O2.5 3-Pointers (-177 Draftkings)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers (1/7, 10:00 PM EST)
Reasoning: On the season, CJ averages 4.9 3s made and 11.3 3s taken. Last 3 games, he's averaged 4 and 11 respectively. He's up against MIN tonight who allows the 11th fewest 3s at 34/game (bad for us); allows the 15th fewest 3s made at 12.9/game (meh for us); allows 22nd fewest 3PT% at 37.8% (good for us as they're in the bottom third of teams in 3PT% defense).
Considering CJ averages about eleven 3s a game, hitting 3 is more than doable. It's probably. If he takes eleven 3s tonight, he'd have to hit 27.3% to win our bet. CJ is an elite 3PT shooter and while the books are starting to adjust the line (I see some 3.5s out there at plus money) there are still books out there at 2.5.
Feeling Risky?: O3.5 (+124; FanDuel)
I haven't taken this myself but will consider it. Depending on how buzzed I am later closer to gametime. Haha.
Personal Risk: $100 to win $57