1. #1
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Thekoreanmang's nba picks (2020-2021)

    Long time lurker, sometime poster. Started a text group with a couple of friends to share ideas for NBA picks. We started to focus on 3 pointers made by individual players but discuss other plays.

    Today's Pick: CJ McCollum O2.5 3-Pointers (-177 Draftkings)
    Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers (1/7, 10:00 PM EST)

    Reasoning
    : On the season, CJ averages 4.9 3s made and 11.3 3s taken. Last 3 games, he's averaged 4 and 11 respectively. He's up against MIN tonight who allows the 11th fewest 3s at 34/game (bad for us); allows the 15th fewest 3s made at 12.9/game (meh for us); allows 22nd fewest 3PT% at 37.8% (good for us as they're in the bottom third of teams in 3PT% defense).

    Considering CJ averages about eleven 3s a game, hitting 3 is more than doable. It's probably. If he takes eleven 3s tonight, he'd have to hit 27.3% to win our bet. CJ is an elite 3PT shooter and while the books are starting to adjust the line (I see some 3.5s out there at plus money) there are still books out there at 2.5.

    Feeling Risky?
    : O3.5 (+124; FanDuel)
    I haven't taken this myself but will consider it. Depending on how buzzed I am later closer to gametime. Haha.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $57

  2. #2
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    All right! So we hit yesterday with CJ hitting 4 of 9 3s. He's just elite. So long as we see 2.5 3PM for him I'm in. Onto today's picks. Record at the bottom.

    Today's Picks:
    Pick 1: Gordon Hayward O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-150 BetMGM)
    7:30PM EST CHA @ NO
    Pick 2: Mikal Bridges O1.5 3PM (-150 BetMGM)
    7:05PM EST PHX @ DET

    Reasoning: Both of these guys have hit the O1.5 5 of their 8 games played so far (62.5%). The teams they're playing against are bad defensively against 3PT shooting. I break it down further below for each player and the teams they're going against.

    • M. Bridges Stats
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 5 of 8 games (62.5%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (8 gms): 2.8 / 6
        • Jan Avg (3 gms): 2.7 / 6.7
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.8 / 5.6

    • DET Ranks (Poor 3PT Defense):
      • Season Opposing 3PT%: 25th (39.7%)
      • Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 27th (43.6%)
      • Allows 5th most 3s made (14.3/game)
      • Allows 12th most 3s attempted (35.9/game)
      • Allows 6th best opposing 3PT% (39.7%)


    • Hayward Stats
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 5 of 8 games (62.5%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (8 gms): 2 / 5.5
        • Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.3 / 5.5
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 1.8 / 5.5

    • NO Ranks (Worst 3PT defense):
      • Season Opposing 3PT%: 14th best (36%)
      • Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 19th best (37.4%)
      • Allows most 3s made (15.9/game)
      • Allows most 3s attempted (44.1/game)

    What I'm Risking: $50 to win $33.33 for each pick. I may risk more later after some additional research into other picks but this is where I'm at now.

    Good luck to anyone who tails! My apologies in advance if it fails!

    Record
    : 1-0
    P&L: $57
    ROI: 57%
    Avg Odds: -177
    Last Pick: O2.5 3PM CJ McCollum (-177 DraftKings)
    Result: WON! CJ hit 4 3s! Covered in the 3rd qtr.

  3. #3
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Upping both risk amounts to $100 to win $66.66 each. Also adding the below bets:

    Pick 3: Brook Lopez O1.5 3PM (-110 DK)

    8pm EST UTA @ MIL


    Reasoning
    :


    • Brook Lopez Stats
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 4 of 8 games (50%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (8 gms): 1.8 / 4.1
        • Jan Avg (3 gms): 3 / 6.3
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 1 / 2.8

    • UTA Ranks (Bad 3PT% defense; Don’t allow many 3s though):
      • Season Opposing 3PT%: 2nd worst (40.3%)
      • Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 15th (36.4%)
      • Allows 12th fewest 3s made (12.3/game)
      • Allows 3rd fewest 3s attempted (30.4/game)

    Notes: Brook as of late has been hitting a lot of 3s in Jan. Dec was bad for him. UTA is a weird 3PT defense as they allow the 2nd best 3PT% to opponents but also allow the 3rd fewest attempts

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $91

  4. #4
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Pick 4: Jerami Grant O1.5 3PM (-177 DK)

    705pm PHX -7.5 @ DET; O/U 216

    Reasoning:

    • Jerami Grant Stats
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 8 games (87.5%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (8 gms): 2.6 / 7.6
        • Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.5 / 7.8
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.8 / 7.5

    • PHX Ranks (Normally good 3PT defense but last 3 gms have been bad):
      • Season Opposing 3PT%: 9th (35%)
      • Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 28th (46.2%)
      • Allows 2nd fewest 3s made (10.3/game)
      • Allows 2nd fewest 3s attempted (29.3/game)

    Notes: J. Grant has faced middling 3PT defensive teams except for ATL (2nd best 3PT% defense) which he made 3 of 8 3PM. J. Grant’s solo performance merits the bet but PHX is a stingy 3PT defense which hurts us. However, PHX has been leaky as of late in terms of allowing opponents more efficient 3PT shooting.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $57

  5. #5
    KnuckleHeadz
    KnuckleHeadz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-19
    Posts: 8,180
    Betpoints: 4499

    And Hayward gets hot after half... cash that

  6. #6
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Seriously. Was sweating a little bit. A friend was like, "Never trust white guys."
    Points Awarded:

    KnuckleHeadz gave thekoreanmang 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  7. #7
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    That's 3-1 on the night.

    Risked: $400
    Won: $114.66
    ROI%: 28.67%
    Avg Odds: -147

  8. #8
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    To date:
    Season Risked Season P&L Season ROI% Season Record Avg American Odds Avg Decimal Odds
    $500.00 $171.66 34.33% 4-1 -148.26 1.6745

  9. #9
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    About last night! Here's today so far:

    1/9/21 SAT
    705pm EST MIA -6 @ WSH; O/U 230


    Pick: K. Olynyk O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-148 DK; -165 BetMGM)

    • K. Olynyk 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 4 of 6 games (66.7%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (6 gms): 2.5 / 5.8
        • Jan Avg (3 gms): 3.3 / 6.7
        • Dec Avg (3 gms): 1.7 / 5

    • WSH 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed 2nd highest opposing 3PT% (47.3%)
      • Allows 15th most 3s made (12.7/game)
      • Allows 4th fewest 3s attempted (31.7/game)
      • Allows 3rd highest opposing 3PT% (40%)

    Addt’l Pros for Picking K. Olynyk: Olynyk averages about 8 FG/game. Six of those are 3s. Even though he only averages about 25 min/game, his main purpose is to score 3s as the stretch big (a la Brook Lopez). Not to mention, Olynyk (6’11”) will draw Rui (6’8”) on defense who’s not exactly known for his defense and gives up 3” in height.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $68 (-148 DraftKings)

  10. #10
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    705pm EST ATL -5 @ CHA; O/U 228

    Pick 2: G. Hayward O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-177 DK; -175 BetMGM; -200 FanDuel)

    • G. Hayward 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 6 of 8 games (75%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (8 gms): 2.2 / 5.7
        • Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.6 / 5.8
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 1.8 / 5.5

    • ATL 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allows 2nd fewest 3s made (10.6/game)
      • Allows 14th most 3s attempted (35.4/game)
      • Allows lowest opposing 3PT% (30%)
      • Allowest lowest opposing 3PT% Last 3 Games (29.1%)

    • Pros:
      • Personal performance is trending upwards
      • Primary scorer
      • Plays tons of minutes (35 min/game)
      • Went 4-9 3s on 1/6/21 vs ATL

    • Cons:
      • ATL is stingiest 3PT defense
      • Played 38 min last nt
      • 2nd nt of b2b

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $57.14 (-175 BetMGM)
    Last edited by thekoreanmang; 01-09-21 at 12:02 PM.

  11. #11
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Pick 3: Parlay of the below two picks

    - G. Hayward O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-177 DraftKings)
    -
    K. Olynyk O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-148 DraftKings)

    Personal Risk: $25 to win $40.94 (+164 DraftKings)

  12. #12
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    705pm EST PHX @ IND -3.5; O/U 215

    Pick 4: M. Brogdon O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-190 DraftKings; -190 BetMGM; O2.5 (+134) FanDuel)

    Data

    • M. Brogdon 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 8 games (87.5%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (8 gms): 3.1 / 6.6
        • Jan Avg (3 gms): 5 / 8.3
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 2 / 5.6

    • PHX 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allows fewest 3s made (10.3/game)
      • Allows 2nd fewest 3s attempted (27.4/game)
      • Allows 7th lowest opposing 3PT% (34.7%)
      • Allows 6th highest opposing 3PT% Last 3 Games (42.9%)

    Pros:

    • Personal performance is dominant esp in Jan
    • Primary scorer
    • Plays tons of minutes (37.3 min/game)
    • Went 7-10 3s on 1/2/21 vs NYK which was one of the stingiest 3PT defenses at the time
    • Coming off 2-day rest

    Cons:

    • PHX is stingy 3PT defense
    • Has averaged 42 min/gm in Jan

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $52.64 (Split $50 and $50 at DraftKings and BetMGM)
    Last edited by thekoreanmang; 01-09-21 at 01:10 PM.

  13. #13
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    8:30PM EST ORL @ DAL

    Pick 5: N. Vucevic O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-180 DraftKings; -200 BetMGM; -205 FanDuel)

    Data


    • Vuc 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 5 of 9 games (55.6%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (9 gms): 2.4 / 5.6
        • Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.5 / 6
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.4 / 5.2

    • DAL 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allows 9th fewest 3s made (11.9/game)
      • Allows 12th most 3s attempted (36.3/game)
      • Allows 3rd lowest opposing 3PT% (32.8%)
      • Allows 5th lowest opposing 3PT% Last 3 Games (32.2%)

    Pros:

    • ⅓ of Vuc’s FGA are 3s
    • Primary scorer
    • Plays good amount of minutes (31.2 min/game)
    • Jokic went 4-10 3s on 1/7/21 vs DAL which bodes well for Vuc who plays the same position.
    • Despite being on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, last season Vuc averaged 33 min/game and 2.1 3PM / 5 3PA.

    Cons:

    • DALis stingy 3PT% defense
    • 2nd night of back-to-back. Could be tired and be held back minutes-wise which happened earlier this year.


    Personal Risk
    : $100 to win $56 (-180 DraftKings)

  14. #14
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    3-2 on the night. 3-1 sans parlay.

    Season Risked Season P&L Season ROI% Season Record Season Win % Avg American Odds Avg Decimal Odds
    $925.00 $223.30 24.14% 7-3 70.00% -136.2 1.73415

  15. #15
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    1/10/21 SUN
    3pm EST UTA -7,5 @ DET; O/U 215.5

    PICK 1
    : R. O’Neale O1.5 3-Pointers Made
    (-146 FanDuel; -110 BetMGM)

    • R’O’Neale 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 9 games (77.8%) this season (incl. the last 7 in a row)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (9 gms): 2.2 / 4.3
        • Jan Avg (5 gms): 3 / 5.6
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 1.3 / 2.8

    • DET 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed 3rd (tied) most 3s made (14.6/game)
      • Allowed 2nd most 3s attempted (39.4/game)
      • Allowed 8th highest opposing 3PT% (38.6%)

    • Pros:
      • Plays a good amount of minutes (31.8)
      • Almost all of the FGs he takes are 3s (3PT specialist?)

    • Cons:
      • Not a primary scorer

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $90.90 (-110 BetMGM)

  16. #16
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Updated Cons section for R. O'Neale:

    • Cons:
      • Not a primary scorer
      • May not be a close game. If so, Royce could get pulled before he makes two 3s. I wouldn’t consider this as big of a risk as stars tend to get rested first before other starters.
      • Has he covered the number too many times now? Regression?

  17. #17
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    8:40pm EST TOR -3 @ GSW; O/U 230.5
    PICK 2: K. Lowry O2.5 3-Pointers Made (-164 FanDuel; -150 BetMGM)

    Data/Reasoning:
    • K. Lowry 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O2.5 3PM in 5 of 7 games (71.4%)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (7 gms): 2.9 / 8
        • Jan Avg (3 gms): 2.3 / 8
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 3.3 / 8

    • GSW 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed 2nd most 3s made (14.9/gm)
      • Allowed 9th most 3s attempted (37/gm)
      • Allowed 2nd highest opposing 3PT% (40.2%)
      • Last 3 Games: Allowed 9th lowest (tied) opposing 3PT% (35%)

    • Pros:
      • Plays a ton of minutes (37)
      • More than half of the FGs he takes are 3s
      • Coming off 3 days rest which has been kind to this fat boy’s 3PT shooting:
        • 2020-21: 4.5 / 9 (3PM / 3PA) (2 gms)
        • 2019-20: 3 / 9.8 (5 gms)
        • 2018-19: 2.8 / 6.7 (9 gms)
        • 2017-18: 3.3 / 8.3 (7 gms)

      • High suggested game total

    • Cons:
      • I would normally wonder if 3days off would hinder a NBA player’s performance and introduce some rust but Kyle’s past +3 days off 3PT stats have been great.
      • Kyle is fat.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $66.67 (-150 BetMGM)
    Last edited by thekoreanmang; 01-10-21 at 09:46 AM. Reason: Trying to fix formatting

  18. #18
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    PICK 3: F. Van Vleet O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-106 FanDuel (was +114 in AM)
    Data/Reasoning:

    • FVV 3PT Stats:
      • Cover O3.5 3PM in 5 of 8 games (62.5%)
      • 3s Made / #s Attempted
        • Season Avg (8 gms): 3.8 / 9.1
        • Jan Avg (4 gms): 4.3 / 9
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 3.3 / 9.3
        • 1 Day of Rest (5 gms): 4.2 / 9

    • GSW 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed 2nd most 3s made (14.9/gm)
      • Allowed 9th most 3s attempted (37/gm)
      • Allowed 2nd highest opposing 3PT% (40.2%)
      • Last 3 Games: Allowed 9th lowest (tied) opposing 3PT% (35%)
      • Allowed 5th most 3PM to SG (3.8/gm)

    • Pros:
      • Plays a ton of minutes (35.3)
      • Primary scorer (1st on team)
      • Half of the FGs he takes are 3s
      • High suggested game total

    • Cons:
      • To make four 3s in a game is a lot even for FVV.
      • Don’t have much historical performance to go off of since FVV’s usage/playing time are at all time highs this year and as such he’s basically a different player this year than in years past

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $94.94 (-106 FanDuel)

    Note: I really do not like picking two players on the same team in the same game to go over the 3PM total. It’s kinda like having two WRs from the same team on your fantasy football team (like I did this year with Corey Davis and AJ Brown; still got 2nd though). FVV O3.5 and Lowry O2.5 3PM has hit only twice this year out of 9 games that TOR has played. It happened once against NO (one of the worst 3PT defenses) and against NYK (was a stingy, top-5 3PT defense at time and score was really low 100-83). However, GSW is one of the worst 3PT defenses in the league (worse than NO). I can see today being the 3rd time that both guys cover the 3PM number. I saw FVV O3.5 at +114 on FanDuel this morning but walked away thinking that it was too high and there was a reason that plus odds were being dangled. However, this afternoon I see the odds have dropped to -106 at FanDuel and is currently being offered at -110 or -115 at DraftKings and BetMGM. Feels crazy but I’ve done the work and the math seems to work out.

    Note 2: If anyone has a suggestion for a reputable online book that has good 3PM odds/prices then please let me know. I also use BookMaker and theScoreBet but neither offer 3PM props.

  19. #19
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    1/11/21 MON
    10pm EST TOR +5 @ POR; O/U 230.5
    PICK 1: C. McCollum O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-113 FanDuel; -118 DraftKings; -115 BetMGM)

    • C. McCollum 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O3.5 3PM in 6 of 9 games (66.7%) this season (incl. the last 3 in a row; had 2 other games with 3 3PM)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (9 gms): 4.9 / 11
        • Jan Avg (5 gms): 4.4 / 10.6
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 5.5 / 11.5
        • 1 Day Rest (7 gms; 30 / 75): 4.3 / 10.7

    • TOR 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed 8th (tied) most 3s made (13.6/game)
      • Allowed 11th most 3s attempted (36.7/game)
      • Allowed 15th highest opposing 3PT% (37%)
      • Last 3 Games: Allowed 5th highest opposing 3PT% (40.8%)
      • 15th best vs SG 3PM

    • Pros:
      • Plays a good amount of minutes (34/gm)
      • Half of the FGs (21/gm) he takes are 3s

    • Cons:
      • Honestly, I can’t think of any. I loved him at O2.5 but the books have responded and moved him to O3.5 albeit at a more reasonable price. Making four 3s in a game is average for CJ at this point.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $88.50 (-113 FanDuel)
    Last edited by thekoreanmang; 01-11-21 at 03:44 PM.

  20. #20
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    7pm EST PHX -5.5 @ WSH; O/U 231
    Pick 2: Mikal Bridges O1.5 3PM (-177 DK; -175 BetMGM; -205 FD)
    Data/Reasoning:

    • M. Bridges Stats
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 6 of 10 games (60%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (10 gms): 2.8 / 6
        • Jan Avg (5 gms): 2.7 / 6.7
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.8 / 5.6

    • Wizards 3PT Team Defense Stats:
      • Allowed 11th most 3s made (13/game)
      • Allows 7th fewest 3s attempted (32.8/game)
      • Allows 2nd best opposing 3PT% (39.6%)
      • Last 3 games: Allowed highest opposing 3PT% (44.2%)
      • 1st (tied) vs SF 3PM

    • Pros:
      • Plays a lot of minutes (33.5/gm)
      • 60% of his FGA are 3s
      • His most recent game on 1/9 vs IND he went 6 of 8 for 3. IND is tied for the best matchup for SFs who shoot 3s (just like WSH tonight).
      • Not sure if this is a pro, but if Bridges hits tonight there’s a good chance the next time see him his number will jump to O2.5 3PM.

    • Cons:
      • Not a primary scorer
      • His second most recent game on 1/8 vs DET he went 0 of 4 for 3. DET is 12th best matchup against SFs who shoot 3s. Obviously, a worse matchup than IND but, still, we see that there is a chance for Bridges to nowhere.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $57.14 (-175 BetMGM)

  21. #21
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Pick 3: D. Booker U2.5 3PM (-177 DK; -180 FD; -175 BetMGM)
    Data/Reasoning:

    • D. Booker Stats
      • Covered U2.5 3PM in 6 of 10 games (60%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (10 gms): 2.2 / 6.3
        • Jan Avg (5 gms): 2.6 / 7
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 1.8 / 5.6

    • Wizards 3PT Team Defense Stats:
      • Allowed 11th most 3s made (13/game)
      • Allows 7th fewest 3s attempted (32.8/game)
      • Allows 2nd best opposing 3PT% (39.6%)
      • Last 3 games: Allowed highest opposing 3PT% (44.2%)
      • 8th worst matchup for vs SG 3PM

    • Pros:
      • Not sure other than the data above

    • Cons:
      • Primary scorer
      • Plays a ton of minutes (35.7/gm)

    Personal Risk: $50 to win $28.57 (-175 BetMGM)

  22. #22
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Pick 4: O1.5 Brook Lopez 3PM (-156 FanDuel)
    Will update with stats later but wanted to get this one in last minute on here.

  23. #23
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Pick 5: O2.5 Brogdon 3PM (+140 BetMGM)

  24. #24
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    1/12/21 TUE
    1030pm EST IND @ GSW -3.5; O/U 227.5
    Pick 1: M. Brogdon O2.5 3-Pointers Made (-110 DraftKings; +100 BetMGM; -102 FanDuel)
    Data & Reasoning:

    • M. Brogdon 3PT Stats:

      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 6 of 10 games (60%) this season
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted

        • Season Avg (10 gms): 3.2 / 6.9
        • Jan Avg (5 gms): 4.4 / 8.2
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 2 / 5.6

    • GSW 3PT Defensive Ranks:

      • Allowed 3rd most 3s made (14.7/game)
      • Allowed 10th most 3s attempted (37.1/game)
      • Allowed 3rd highest 3PT% (39.6%)
      • Allows 16th highest 3PT% last 3 games (36.9%)

    Pros:

    • Personal performance is dominant esp in Jan
    • Primary scorer
    • Plays tons of minutes (37.5 min/game; 40.6/game in Jan)
    • Went 7-10 3s on 1/2/21 vs NYK which was one of the stingiest 3PT defenses at the time
    • Fellow backcourt mate, Oladipo, is out tonight which should increase the scoring volume for Brogdon

    Cons:

    • Second night of back-to-back
    • With Oladipo out, would this increase the defensive pressure on Brogdon as well?
    • While only 28, Brogdon could be fatigued and might not have his best legs under him due to the high number of minutes played and being on the second night of a back-to-back
    • It’s hard to compare 2021 Brogdon against Brogdons of season past because of his newfound increased role and skill, but his historical 3PT performance with 0 days of rest have not been great

      • 2020-21: 2 /7 (1 game)
      • 2019-20: 1.3 / 4 (4 games; Averaged 30.9 min in his first season at IND)
      • 2018-19: 1.4 / 3.4 (8 games; Averaged 28.6 min in his last season at MIL)

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $132 (-102 FanDuel)
    Personal Regret: When I began writing this and researching Brogdon for tonight’s play, FanDuel had him at +132. By the time I got to the end, the price moved against me to -102. I wanted to put in the play at +132 but I also wanted to practice self-discipline by going through the research and ensuring confidence in the play (even though I just bet him last night and another time last week). Also, BetMGM tends to not move their lines really on 3PM props so I should’ve just bet there but my finger took control and just clicked FanDuel’s “Place Bet” button. Ugh. It’s okay.

  25. #25
    chargers4222
    chargers4222's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-16-10
    Posts: 4,702
    Betpoints: 8926

    Do you guys pick the games themselves or it's always props?

  26. #26
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    8PM EST SA -2.5 @ OKC; O/U 218
    Pick 2: S. Gilgeous-Alexander O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-175 DraftKings; -175 BetMGM; -194 FanDuel)
    Data & Reasoning:

    • SGA 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 9 games (77.8%) this season (currently on a 7-game cover streak)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (9 gms): 2 / 5.7
        • Jan Avg (5 gms): 2.2 / 5.8
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.8 / 5.5

    • SA 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed 12 (tied) most 3s made (12.8/game)
      • Allowed 4th fewest 3s attempted (31.3/game)
      • Allowed highest 3PT% (40.9%)
      • Allows 7th highest 3PT% last 3 games (39.5%)
      • 7th worst 3PT defense vs PGs

    Pros:

    • Primary scorer and ball handler
    • Plays a good amount of minutes (33.6 min/game)
    • In two most recent games, SGA has covered against BK (2/4) and NY (3/3) which are both good 3PT defenses and among the top 5 in 3PT defenses against PGs

    Cons:

    • Not a prolific 3PT scorer. About a third of his FGA are 3s.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $58 (-175 DraftKings)

  27. #27
    KnuckleHeadz
    KnuckleHeadz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-19
    Posts: 8,180
    Betpoints: 4499

    How’s this going in here?

  28. #28
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    How’s this going in here?
    Hitting a rough patch but trying to refine.

  29. #29
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    1/13/21 WED
    10pm EST POR 3.5 @ SAC; O/U 236.5
    PICK 1: C. McCollum O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-113 FanDuel; +100 DraftKings; +100 BetMGM)

    • C. McCollum 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O3.5 3PM in 7 of 10 games (70%) this season (incl. the last 4 in a row)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (10 gms): 4.9 / 11 (1st in 3PM / 2nd in 3PA)
        • Jan Avg (6 gms): 4.5 / 10.7
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 5.5 / 11.5
        • 1 Day Rest (7 gms; 30 / 75): 4.3 / 10.7

    • SAC 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed 4th most 3s made (14.3/game)
      • Allowed 6th most 3s attempted (37.7/game)
      • Allowed 9th highest opposing 3PT% (37.8%)
      • Last 3 Games: Allowed 6th highest opposing 3PT% (42%)
      • 4th best matchup vs SG 3PM

    • Pros:
      • Plays a good amount of minutes (34.5/gm)
      • Half of the FGs (20.8/gm) he takes are 3s
      • He played SAC just a few days ago on 1/9 and hit 6 of 11 3s. He also did it in only 29 minutes. He’s a bona fide beast.

    • Cons:
      • Honestly, I can’t think of any. I loved him at O2.5 but the books have responded and moved him to O3.5 albeit at a more reasonable price. Making four 3s in a game is average for CJ at this point.

    Personal Risk: $200 to win $200 (+100 DraftKings / BetMGM)
    Last edited by thekoreanmang; 01-13-21 at 08:01 PM.

  30. #30
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    10PM EST NO @ LAC -9.5; O/U 216
    PICK 2: P. George O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-150 FanDuel; -134 DraftKings; -115 BetMGM)

    • P. George 3PT Stats:
      • Covered O3.5 3PM in 8 of 10 games (80%) this season (incl. the last 2 in a row)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted
        • Season Avg (10 gms): 4.2 / 8.2 (2nd in 3PM / 13th in 3PA)
        • 8th best 3P%: 51.2%
        • Jan Avg (5 gms): 4.8 / 8.8
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 3.6 / 7.6
        • 2 Days’ Rest (2 gms; 7 / 15): 3.5 / 7.5 (this season)
          • 2019-20: 2.9 / 8 (8 gms)
          • 2018-19: 4.3 / 10.6 (15 gms)
          • 2017-18: 2.7 / 7.6 (14 gms)

    • NO 3PT Defensive Ranks:
      • Allowed most 3s made (15.9/game)
      • Allowed most 3s attempted (43.9/game)
      • Allowed 9th lowest opposing 3PT% (36.2%)
      • Last 3 Games: Allowed 6th highest opposing 3PT% (40.6%)
      • 6th best matchup for SGs who shoot 3s
      • 7th best matchup for SFs who shoot 3s

    • Pros:
      • Plays a good amount of minutes (34.7/gm)
      • Shooting the 3 outside of this world

    • Cons:
      • LAC are heavy faves which could mean less minutes for PG especially after averaging 38.8 for Jan games. This didn’t seem to be a problem against CHI in his last game where LAC was favored by 12.5.
      • The total is not particularly high.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $86.96 (-115 BetMGM)

  31. #31
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    1/17/21 SUN
    10pm EST IND @ LAC -6; O/U 219.5
    PICK 1: P. George O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-130 FanDuel; -148 DraftKings; -140 BetMGM)

    • P. George 3PT Stats:

      • Covered O3.5 3PM in 10 of 12 games (83.3%) this season (incl. the last 4 in a row)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted

        • Season Avg (12 gms): 4.3 / 8.3 (2nd in 3PM / 12th in 3PA)
        • 8th best 3P%: 51.5%
        • Jan Avg (7 gms): 4.7 / 8.7
        • Dec Avg (5 gms): 3.6 / 7.6
        • 1 Day Rest (9 gms): 3.9 / 7.6 (this season)

          • 2019-20: 3.2 / 8 (26 gms)
          • 2018-19: 3.8 / 9.9 (46 gms)
          • 2017-18: 3.3 / 8.2 (44 gms)

    • IND 3PT Defensive Ranks:

      • Allowed 10th least 3s made (12/game)
      • Allowed 2nd (tied) least 3s attempted (31.1/game)
      • Allowed 6th highest opposing 3PT% (38.6%)
      • Last 3 Games: Allowed 14th lowest opposing 3PT% (36.3%)
      • 13th worst matchup for SGs who shoot 3s
      • 3rd (tied) best matchup for SFs who shoot 3s

    • Pros:

      • Plays a good amount of minutes (34.6/gm)
      • Shooting the 3 outside of this world
      • Revenge game: I know PG hasn’t been on IND since ‘16-’17 but it seems that he always plays up whenever he faces the team that drafted him and that he played with for the majority of his career (7 seasons) which is weird b/c typically it’s only revenge when the team let you go not when you request a trade. Except for the ‘17-’18 season he played well vs IND 3PT-wise.
      • Past IND game 3PM stats avgs:

        • 2019-20 (1 gm): 7 / 16
        • 2018-19 (2 gms): 5 / 12
        • 2017-18 (2 gms): 1 / 5

    • Cons:

      • IND is a good 3PT defense

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $76.93 (-130 FanDuel)

  32. #32
    Hman
    Hman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 21,429
    Betpoints: 1222

    Best of luck

  33. #33
    thekoreanmang
    thekoreanmang's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-14
    Posts: 1,422
    Betpoints: 2317

    1/18/21 MON
    Jerami Grant O2.5 3PM (120 DK; 105 BetMGM; +122 FD)

    • Jerami Grant Stats

      • Covered O2.5 3PM in 8 of 12 games (66.7%) this season (incl. last 4 gms straight)
      • 3s Made/3s Attempted

        • Season Avg (12 gms): 2.8 / 7 (28th / 25th)
        • Jan Avg (8 gms): 2.8 / 6.8
        • Dec Avg (4 gms): 2.8 / 7.5

    • MIA 3PT Defensive Ranks:

      • Allowed 2nd most 3s made (15.3/gm)
      • Allowed 2nd most 3s attempted (40.7/gm)
      • Allowed 10th highest opposing 3PT% (37.6%)
      • Last 3 Games: Allowed 12th highest opposing 3PT% (38.6%)
      • 11th best matchup for SFs who shoot 3s (Jerami pretty much improved this ranking by 2 spots since he was the starting SF who played them last)

    • Pros:

      • Plays ton of minutes (36.6/gm)
      • Hit 3 of 6 3PM vs MIA on 1/16

    • Cons:

      • Tbh it’s hard to think of Jerami as a person who you should be betting to hit the over on 3PM but this is the year of our Lord 2021 and many things have changed since last season where Jerami averaged half the points scored and half the 3PM and 3PA taken. Not sure there’s a con in here but it may be that it’s just more a psychological block than anything else. Jerami was 1.5 3PM earlier in the season but the books have since recognized him and moved him up to 2.5. Maybe I should too.

    Personal Risk: $100 to win $122 (+122 FanDuel)

Top