[jjgold]

strange feeling sports right now

subdued

[johnnyvegas13]

Agree co hoops not ripe yet

best bet right now is bucs super bowl

[RudyRuetigger]

then try tiddly winks you fukkin clown

[hubie69]

ncaab is so ripe it's almost juicy.

[RudyRuetigger]

ncaab is so ripe it's almost juicy.

hey hubie go check into your zoom contest thread post

[hubie69]

hey hubie go check into your zoom contest thread post

ok, on my way

[RudyRuetigger]

ok, on my way

thanks

[hubie69]

thanks

Thread burried. Still looking

[RudyRuetigger]

Thread burried. Still looking

it has a JOIN NOW thing attached


created by LT Profits

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund will track NCAAB plays derived from a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by a few technical, statistical tweaks. The forecast with these adjustments, when compared to the market, give us another decent spread opportunity throughout the seasons.

This Fund will also be comprised of underdogs, exploiting some of the public thirst for favorites, but gets its plays mainly from focusing more on the weightings of a few specific areas. These areas include defensive stats like field goal %, forced turnovers per game, opponents free throws, etc, and combine them with things like pace to find those teams that are just better than the number indicates and control the game more than the betting market realizes...

843		8-Jan	S ALABAMA +5 (-110)
893			DAYTON +5.5 (-110)

[TheMetsSuck]

NBA with no fans and guys resting so much Is the pits. Would rather bet on ping pong. Basketball was definitely the sport that was impacted the most by playing without fans and it shows. College not as much. Just bet Gonzaga and Iowa every game and you’ll come out on top

[Smoke]

Lakers UNDERS have been hitting like crazy

[Smoke]

843		8-Jan	S ALABAMA +5 (-110)
893			DAYTON +5.5 (-110)

oh wow kvb

[RudyRuetigger]

oh wow kvb

be careful

[pologq]

843		8-Jan	S ALABAMA +5 (-110)
893			DAYTON +5.5 (-110)

yum yum yum

[KVB]

843		8-Jan	S ALABAMA +5 (-110)
893			DAYTON +5.5 (-110)

...

Make no mistake, been writing all season about the the positive units on the tech value Fund on both spread and ml but the concern with the closing line performance. We've seen improvement in the closing line performance though recently and todays games aren't exactly the openers I usually post, as explained in the original post.

We're still watching this Fund closely Gold, but it's conditions have improved and many of the tests that stood fine now look stronger. For one thing, there are still plays being generated agains the market, even if the originators are off a bit on the open. When those dissipate, there wil be additional cause for concern.

The Fund season to date...

The closing line comparison is a crude one, as always, and I realize going forward, if we do have a teaching point here, I might go ahead and convert to percetages agains the close. I don't usually do it because I use special values for different points, as everyone should, something that isn't nearly as important in basketball as it would be in football...

	Record	Date	NCAAB Technical Value Fund	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ATS			1 unit
	ATS			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average			ml close
774	0-1	3-Dec	CAL +7.5 (-108)	-1	6.5	Y	1			-1
813	0-2	4-Dec	N TEXAS +3 (-105)	-1	4	N	-1			-1
863	1-2	10-Dec	SDSU +4.5 (-110)	0.91	2	Y	2.5			1.11
730	2-2	12-Dec	WASHINGTON +7 (-110)	0.91	8.5	N	-1.5			-1
769	3-2	13-Dec	PENN ST +7.5 (-110)	0.91	7.5	PUSH	0			-1
608	3-3	15-Dec	MIA (OH) +3 (-110)	-1	4	N	-1			-1
633	4-3		FURMAN +6.5 (-110)	0.91	6	Y	0.5			-1
701	5-3	16-Dec	MONTANA +8 (-110)	0.91	6.5	Y	1.5			2.46
821	5-4	18-Dec	ST PETERS +1 (-110)	-1	-1	Y	2			-1
611	5-5	19-Dec	BALL ST +4 (-110)	-1	3	Y	1			-1
638	6-5		DAYTON +2.5 (-110)	0.91	2.5	PUSH	0			1.32
677	7-5		MIA (OH) +10.5 (-105)	0.95	12	N	-1.5			-1
763	7-6	21-Dec	WOFFORD +6 (-115)	-1	6.5	N	-0.5			-1
779	8-6		S ILLINOIS +9 (-110)	0.91	9.5	N	-0.5			4.02
783	9-6		TULSA +8.5 (-115)	0.87	9.5	N	-1			3.53
626	10-6	22-Dec	UCF +2 (-110)	0.91	2.5	N	-0.5			1.25
647	11-6		MONTANA +14 (-110)	0.91	14.5	N	-0.5			-1
666	11-7		UL MONROE +10 (-110)	-1	10.5	N	-0.5			-1
737	11-8	23-Dec	NEW MEXICO +12.5 (-108)	-1	11	Y	1.5			-1
768	11-9	26-Dec	UCF +8 (-110)	-1	7.5	Y	0.5			-1
609	11-10	29-Dec	TEXAS A&M +7.5 (-108)	-1	8	N	-0.5			-1
615	12-10		WOFFORD +2.5 (-108)	0.93	2.5	PUSH	0			1.2
634	13-10		TULSA +7.5 (-105)	0.95	9.5	N	-2			3.66
711	13-11	30-Dec	SACRAMENTO ST +13 (-110)	-1	15	N	-2			-1
657	14-11	2-Jan	TULSA +4.5 (-110)	0.91	5.5	N	-1			2.01
653	15-11	6-Jan	TULSA +1 (-110)	0.91	-1	Y	2			0.85
655	16-11		PITT +9 (-110)	0.91	11	N	-2			5
697	16-12		TEX A&M +4 (-110)	-1	3	Y	1			-1
843		8-Jan	S ALABAMA +5 (-110)
893			DAYTON +5.5 (-110)
	16-12		Total	2.62		9-15-3	-0.09			9.41

Let's hope the variance on the closer remains just that. NO real reason to think otherwise, but I'm always hard the funds. I'm more concerned about making sure I am winning going forward than winnign today.

Priorities.

Tomorrow's a big slate, Circa leading the world with the best early lines out there.

[KVB]

I can't remember a posted Fund that has done that poorly over a 30 or so unit span against the closing line, in any sport. It just doesn't happen with me that often. Even when the the NCAAF Totals Fund took a shit a year ago it was the lack of plays from years past that was most prominent. The market had caught up.

It's far more likely that I go on wild losing and win streaks with units than with the performance against the close.

Here are last year's Tech Value Fund numbers, with a link to the summary.

38-20

Total:

15.81

26-18-14

0.164

Againg nowhere near the .5 level we look to beat the close by here, keeping the crude method of comparison relevant.

I remain on a wait and a see outlook with this Fund and will continue to buy in at the normal rate, no increase or decrease.

If we dip into last year's profit and have poor testing metrics then I'll change the outlook and decrease the positions, if not elminate them.

[RudyRuetigger]

i hope smoke is careful

[KVB]

Here's one for tomorrow..Texas A&M +9. Again taken at Circa at the open, but I waited for the more widely avalable line to come out. It's not the Circa market I'm worried about, I've shown we can beat that.

The KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund has picked up...

638

9-Jan

TEX A&M +9 (-110)

This for tomorrow.

We have this at Circa at +10 but I wanted to post when it was more widely available again. This will affect my closing line performance a little and we will continue to keep that in mind. In reality though, the Circa market isn't what we're really up against, I showed we can crush Circa in both football and we can see it again in Hoops..

[KVB]

Added Clemson to the Fund as well, another instance of Circa giving a generous opener of 2.

The KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund has added...

747

9-Jan

CLEMSON +1.5 (-110)

This is for tomorrow. Once again we have Circa +2 here and the widely available line is a half point shy already. The originators haven't exaclty caught up to the Fund, but the early market is pushing that way...

[jjgold]

Looking now

A better selection today

Thanks men

[Sam Odom]

on a 6-1 run... all sports

[flyingillini]

Everyday is the same and has been for 27+ years. I just pick a side.