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Prelims -
125 lbs.: Montana De La Rosa vs. Viviane Araujo
Despite going 1-1 on TUF, Montana De La Rosa (11-5) has made her mark in UFC’s Strawweight division, racking up four wins in five Octagon appearances. Her most recent effort saw her rebound from a decision loss to Andrea Lee with a three-round victory over Mara Romero Borella in February.
Nine of her professional wins, including four of her last five, have come by decision.
Viviane Araujo (8-2) had one of the more impressive women’s MMA debut in recent memory when she moved up two weight classes to knock out Talita Bernardo, then settled at 125 pounds for her decision over Alexis Davis. Unfortunately for “Vivi”, her cardio wasn’t quite there against Jessica Eye, resulting in a decision loss as “Evil’s” volume took over down the stretch.
She’s the shorter of the two by three inches, though their reaches are identical.
I’ve almost certainly mentioned it before, but just to reiterate: De La Rosa’s key weakness is that she lacks the takedown chops to make the most of her excellent top control. That’s more than a little worrisome here, as Araujo has her out-classed in both power and striking technique and has also handily denied all eight takedown attempts sent her way in the Octagon. So long as “Vivi’s” gas tank holds up, she’ll be able to run circles around De La Rosa as the latter struggles to tie up and bring it to the mat.
That’s a qualifier that shouldn’t be ignored, though. That’s because Araujo has visibly slowed in her last two bouts, and De La Rosa’s submission chops are such that she could very easily get the finish after a single completed takedown. Still, even a tired Araujo looks like more than De La Rosa can handle. Araujo takes the first two rounds and fends off a late surge to seal the deal.
Prediction: Araujo via unanimous decision
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265 lbs.: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Alexander Romanov
After missing the Light Heavyweight limit twice in a row, Marcos Rogerio de Lima (17-6-1) returned to Heavyweight for the first time since his UFC debut and made up for lost time with a decision over Adam Wieczorek. Though he failed to capitalize on a strong first round against Stefan Struve and ultimately tapped, he got back in track last February with a faceplant knockout of Ben Sosoli in Auckland.
“Pezao” owns 12 professional wins by form of knockout and another three via submission.
Moldova’s Alexander Romanov (11-0) started his professional career with nine consecutive first-round finishes before requiring three rounds to put away Sultan Murtazaliev in 2018. After scoring a slam knockout the next year, he joined UFC, only for the coronavirus to scratch planned debuts against Raphael Pessoa and Marcin Tybura.
“King Kong” has finished six opponents in less than two minutes apiece.
I haven’t gotten to use the phrase “two-true-outcome fight” in a while, so forgive me for busting it out here. de Lima, despite being an undisciplined Light Heavyweight cosplaying a Heavyweight, packs truly horrific power the likes of which Romanov has ever seen. On the other hand, “Pezao” is embarrassingly helpless off of his back and has appalling fight IQ. For example, recall how he dropped Struve, dominated the rest of the round, and then initiated the grappling in the second instead of just smashing the division’s easiest target. If Romanov gets on top, he’ll have little to no difficulty getting the finish.
There’s your outcomes: either de Lima clips the former rikishi in the opening minutes or gets rag-dolled and demolished on the mat. Considering Romanov’s size advantage, I favor the latter. “King Kong” forces him to the fence, slams him down, and either pounds or chokes him out soon after.
Prediction: Romanov via first-round submission
185 lbs.: Bartosz Fabinski vs. Andre Muniz
Poland’s Bartosz Fabinski (15-3) — who missed all of 2016 and 2017 — put together three consecutive Octagon victories before a 62-second Michel Prazeres guillotine ended his win streak at seven. He was set to welcome Shavkat Rakhmonov to the Octagon in March, but when that fell through because of COVID, he instead took a decision over Darren Stewart at Cage Warriors 113.
He’ll give up one inch of height and three inches of reach to Andre Muniz (19-4).
Though Muniz failed to find a finish on “Contender Series: Brazil,” he got a second chance on the United States version one year later and made the most of it with a 106-second tapout of Taylor Johnson. His UFC debut pitted him against Antonio Arroyo, who took an almost identical path, and resulted in Muniz winning a decision to extend his streak to five.
He has submitted 12 professional opponents and knocked out another four.
Fabinski is the ultimate wrestling stress test. Even though Merab Dvalishvili may have supplanted him as UFC’s premier accumulator of ludicrous takedown numbers, “The Butcher” still averages more than seven takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. I see him enjoying similar success against Muniz, whose wrestling has not caught up with his potent submission game.
If Fabinski was the sort to overextend himself in pursuit of ground strikes or passes, Muniz would have an excellent chance of catching him off of his back. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, Fabinski is often content to just control, limiting the former’s opportunities to turn things around. Muniz could still wrap up his neck, but expect another grueling affair from Poland’s ultimate blanket.
Prediction: Fabinski via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Cole Smith vs. Hunter Azure
Cole Smith (7-1) brought his momentum to bear in his Octagon debut, out-lasting dangerous veteran Mitch Gagnon to improve his record to 7-0. “The Cole Train” couldn’t quite do the same to Miles Johns, who survived Smith’s back attack to claim a split decision.
This will be his first fight in almost exactly one year.
Hunter Azure (8-1) leaned on his wrestling to take a decision over Chris Ocon on the Contender Series, then found success with that tactic once again in his UFC debut against Brad Katona. Then came a May clash with scrappy veteran Brian Kelleher, which ended abruptly when “boom” landed a monster left hook in the third round.
Though he stands three inches shorter than Smith, he’ll have a 3.5-inch reach advantage.
This looks like a much more forgiving match up for Azure than Kelleher and arguably even Katona. Though he boasts some nasty tricks — like his excellent back take — Smith is a straightforward grinder. Azure’s own wrestling skills largely nullify Smith’s offense and he looks to be the more effective striker, giving him a variety of ways to win this fight.
Azure is admittedly still fairly green, which could allow Smith to rack up back control time as he did against Johns if Azure gets lazy in the clinch. Between his stand up edge and ostensible ability to just take Smith down whenever things get hairy, though, Azure has all the tools needed to cruise to a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Azure via unanimous decision
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Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja
thats a good one
