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UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik (August 08, 2020)
ESPN+ 9:00 pm ET
Derrick Lewis vs. Alexey Oleinik
Chris Weidman vs. Omari Akhmedov
Maki Pitolo vs. Darren Stewart
Yana Kunitskaya vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Beneil Dariush vs Scott Holtzman
ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Tim Means vs. Laureano Staropoli
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Alex Munoz
Andrew Sanchez vs. Wellington Turman
Justin Jaynes vs. Gavin Tucker
Peter Barrett vs. Youssef Zalal
Ali Alqaisi vs Irwin Rivera
Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 08-06-20 at 07:09 AM.
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Oleinik might give Lewis a tough time
Feels like it'll end in R1 either way.Originally Posted by frankieunits2685
Oli by Sub could have good value.. Beast by KO is probably the safest bet though..
Personally hate playing props with minus odds but think Lewis KO is the most likely outcome.
You can always play Beast straight at -210.. I can't see beast ever winning by sub, maybe a chance by decision.. KO is likely path to victory though for sure in this fight.. Odds I imagine will be around -170 for that KO prop when it comes out.
my book has: To go the Distance - "No" @ -670
Early thought... liking Oleinik.
I agree that Lewis KO is the most likely outcome but I think the value is on Oli here. I've got 1.5u on Oli at (+580) net (0.5u of that is parlayed with Brunson at +12xx). Planning to keep most if not all of that.
I do agree, most likely outcome BB TKO...I still think Oli can sub, hell I know that, BB has no ground game to speak of...but usually he just muscles his way back up with sheer size/str
Still, I'll be parlaying with a TKO and SUB, no way this goes the distance, tho since I said that it might now rofl...
NJ PointsBet doesn't have any props yet.
DraftKings:
Lewis ML -235, ITD -167
Oleinik ML +188, ITD +225
Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ -162
Lewis by decision +750
Lewis by sub +2200
Oleinik by KO/TKO/DQ +900
Oleinik by sub +275
Oleinik by decision +1000
Go the distance, Yes +400, No -670
Yep. Took some Oli by sub and will look at the Under.
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Kinda funny browsing various forums and reading the mental gymnastics Weidman fans have to excuse/minimize his losses.
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But but he owned the goat 2x
I've made more money betting against Chris Weidman than I have betting on/against any other fighter.
I think maybe Benil Dariush at -180 is a pretty good play. Dariush is very well rounded, can end a fight in a number of ways. Hot sauce is tough, but it will take more than that to beat Dariush.
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Woodley and rockhold have been super profitable too lol..
Chandler looking ready as they come
I was thinking Oli by sub. Glad some of you boys were on Bronson last card...
Also I really favor Dirty Bird Tim means to finish this youngster. They have a common recent opponent in Thiago Alves and this guy couldn't finish him. Means is a born finisher. He's a slight dog. What do you think?
PointsBet has Lewis -200, Oleinik +160
Oleinik by sub or on points +220
Oleinik by sub +275
Passing since Means's chin isn't what it used to be and I think it'll be a close fight. If there's any value it's on the over or goes distance, but it's not a fight I'm looking to have much exposure on, if at all.
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Only thing that has me questioning this is the age of the bird....I love the guy's style -always have but he's not 32 anymore......
Interesting point , and I havent seen film on his opponent (yet) . If memory serves Tim only got his chin cracked 2 fights ago by Nico Price and had a long layoff after that which should have helped him recover . I know he's got a chip on his shoulder and he's always going hard for the finish.
I think we could see him utilize his underrated wrestling .
I might be bias though Because I've always liked the dirty bird because of his style ( he's a natural finisher w great boxing and elbows, like myself) and also that he stayed loyal to his garage gym and never went across the street to Jackson winklejohn.
I love the black beast but I think I have to feed him on this 1. The Russian is a gamer and his hands have come a long way, hes no slouch on the feet anymore and his game still seems to be approving even in his old age. When it hits the mat I feel like black beast is going to be a fish out of water because the sky is a lead blanket.. Gonna look into it more but I think he has pretty good size to deal with the explosions And rudimentary escape attempts from the black beast. I see the Russian taking him down and when Derrick Lewis explodes I feel like he'll transition to the neck and apply the choke
Ya good point Paper, Another concern I was going to mention is the fact that he trains at a smaller gym in Albuquerque, With a gym like that you rely on a team of guys who are not pro fighters to keep you in shape a lot of them are not training right now because of the pandemic. I'm concerned he might have a lack of quality training partners right now. I haven't seen any photos on social media of him training in a Room full of killers .. Not sure about this other guy but I'm gonna look into his camp after I get done training in about an hour
QUOTE=PaperTrail07;29615603]Only thing that has me questioning this is the age of the bird....I love the guy's style -always have but he's not 32 anymore......[/QUOTE]
Means did get dropped in his last fight against Daniel Rodriguez at the end of the first round (was actually at that fight, Means was winning until the knockdown). If we were getting Means from a few years ago I'd be all over him in this spot. I'm a fan of Tim's as well. Unfortunate he didn't improve from the opening line because I would have taken a small stab at +150 or so.
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For sure- we just have this vision of means in our heads that is a killer----lets hope that same guy shows up[/QUOTE]
I love Means as a fighter but his once iron chin really seems to be going. Passing on this one.
Pretty much the same thoughts for me. Re-watched that Alves fight and forgot that Alves stunned Means a few times. That would have never happen years ago.
Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-07-20 at 01:35 PM.
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Anyone have thoughts on Tucker v. Jaynes? I took Jaynes at +170 but strongly considering buying out.
ESPN article about MMA coaches and the main event, they were 4-0 in favor of Lewis.
I'm still going Oleinik, though a little hedge on Lewis is POSSIBLE, though at the odds, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Maybe just keep it smaller and go Oleinik.
Took Tucker small. Like to fade guys coming off big upset wins who are lined closely in their next fight. That Jaynes price gives you some flexibility to reduce stake for bigger net odds or freeroll.
It sucks to say-and also upsets me, but I cant force bets here----I just don't see much profit and don't know these fighters as well....
Darren Stewart was embarrassed as a big fave in cagefighters vs the butcher....this will be standup so he could do ok...BUT....is he mentally ready---guy could train or he might not ect...more to betting him that the skillset....
Betting:
NasRat
Omari
Added Stewart lol...
Last edited by PaperTrail07; 08-07-20 at 02:18 PM.
Buckley looks like a Beast, might be worth a shot at the big + $
Lewis has dropped from -334 to -188 for what it's worth... (Betway)
Unwritten Law gave THE_LOCKSMITH 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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