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whitney day
saratoga
R1 #3 reinvestment risk (3-1)
this is the type of 2yo msw race you get on the undercard of a big day.. 2 who've run ran well in their debut and you won't find a better bunch of first time starters.. probably at least 3 eventual stakes winners in here.. have to side with chad here as best represents my expensive relative to the specs angle along with a trainer who has them wound up first out.. have to think the owners, his main clients, would love to be in the winners circle today.. they usually name their horses with financial themes
R2 #1 fog of war (2-1)
has the 2 (3-1) also but like this 1 better.. other would be my 2nd choice
R3 #1 allied invasion (5-1)
first time starter by new sire "normandy invasion " so gotta love the name.. I know it's so easy to go clement/joel right now but what appeals to me besides is the placement.. they're choosing statebred 40k maidens which is where a horse with a modest pedigree like this belongs ..clement is profitable in this category over a very large sample at avg win % which means he hits a lot of decent prices.. probably not the case here though
R4 #6 uncle moonlight (10-1)
another way above avg field of maidens but this time it's 3 year olds.. two favorites (3,5) have run multiple big races (to be fair lightly race and good figures on both) but yet to win.. I like looking for a big pedigree who hasn't revealed their hand yet.. mine huge pedigree and caught a muddy track at belmont in his debut.. bumped at the start and winner of race came back to repeat.. did some running along the way..these are the types I look for in these races and realize I will miss most of the time but get value when I hit.. trainer solid and below the radar.. breeder/owner have been involved in this game at a high level for decades
R5 #4 vexatious (5-1)
take a shot to upset midnight bisou (2-5)..biggest like of mine is ran a figure last out that is faster than the favorite has ever run.. raced here only one other time in a restricticted stakes and missed by a neck.. obviously a lot lower in class is an understatement but the figures for that race, (pace, final) were grade 1 level and she was up close.. same true of the pace last race and also up close.. I respect this trainer and don't think he'd just throw her in here if she didn't come out of her last race ok
R6 #7 everfast (2-1)
R7 #1 flight to paradise (12-1)
first time starter from my friend trombetta who I've hit 2/2 with including $71 bomb.. nice pedigree but not up to the biggies in here (same circumstances as big price).. also going from the 1 post like the other two.. easy decision irregardless of result
R7 #6 shawdyshawdyshawdy (8-1)
homebred first time starter with a nice pedigree but again not up to the other mega ones in here.. trainer has excellent numbers in these types of races.. think he was a chad brown assistant who gets some of the lesser ones from his big client(s)
2 horses R7
R8 #6 montauk summer (10-1)
ran type of line in a middle distance race I like for stretching out to a marathon.. was also behind a slow pace and very wide both turns.. not concerned joel hops off as he's riding for the trainer of the favorite in the whitney.. this horse also cost a decent amount for the pedigree.. red hot clement the trainer
R9 #3 code of honor (5-2) whitney
this is a horse for me who throughout his career has had excuses for bad races..posts,pace compromised multiple times and last race closed on the outside on met mile day which was not the thing to do that say..can run big numbers,3rd off the layoff and won the travers here last year..the time is now for a big effort
R10 #8 three technique (6-1)
i'm thinking a pace duel may develop here and mine would definitely be a beneficiary.. off what he's done I think today's 7f is perfect
R11 #4 dot matrix (9-2) bowling green
pace compromised last race and finished last (but only by 3.25 lengths).. 3rd off the layoff, likes the distance and track.. trainer has terrific numbers in many applicable categories.. rosario rides again and has missed by a neck and head when he's rode him before
R12 #4 introduced (10-1)
consistent as they come turf sprinting.. trainer has terrific numbers and still an under the radar guy
del mar
2yo msw
both of these debuters
R3 #2 petruchio (5-1) speed /class top bottom
R3 #8 vittorio (8-1) expensive for the pedigree.. trainer very good msw and first out
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Originally Posted by JBEX
ByeShea gave BOA12 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
