[ichiro4thehall]

Risking 50% of $128.86 = $64.43.

It might be better to consistently wager a finite sum. Like say $50.

To reduce the risk of losses potentially growing at a faster rate than gains.

Aside from that, good luck. Hope you do better than me.

Thanks for replying in the thread.

Losses for sure will be crippling betting like this. Just a bit of fun tho with a small sum to motivate me to cap the card fully.

I'm going for 200 or broke, but hopefully once we get to 200, winning amounts wil increase a bit and speed up the growth of the roll.

GL with your thread!

[ichiro4thehall]

Meerschaert has 8 career submission losses and like you pointed out Herman has a slight majority of his career wins by Sub (13/25). Might be worth considering a different play depending on price of course.

Wow, I'd never have guessed GM had 8 sub losses. Thanks for heads up, might have accepted a lot higher price than I will now knowing this.

Still like the bet depending on odds. Since 2013 he has only one sub loss to Hermansson who is a very high level sub guy. Also, Herman is a smart fighter now as a vet, I can even see him not following GM to the ground if he knocks him down but hasn't hurt him badly enough to end it with quick hammer fists. That's what appeals to me in this type of play, it could be now as we speak Herman and his coach have a game plan of absolutely no grappling and the bet is nearly in the bag.

[Honeybadger44]

Probably depends where you can get it matched, but at something like -2000, I don't think it's worth a trouble. I know Herman's sub wins are a bit dated, but I've still seen him attempting a lot in some of his recent fights. Definitely looks like he knows what he's doing on the ground.

very interesting thread btw. Curios to see how it goes. Good luck!

[turbozed]

Appreciate you posting about this and wish you luck.

The biggest problem I see in the system is that there's really not much thought put into what the actual implied odds of the result versus the line value. The system kinda just assumes that the NOT line is so close to 0% that it's worth it. Taking the example of GM3 vs Herman, we assume that GM3 is grappler here and Herman is the striker, and Herman won't be taking it to the ground. But there's always a chance of a club and sub where it's basically a knockout and the superior grappler taps to something he would never get caught in if he weren't semi conscious. Assuming that the line is like -3000, and Herman's chaces of a club and sub is 4% or greater, then the play will be net negative EV in the long run.

Because we're only dealing with a small amount of results, the net negative EV might take a while to catch up since the edges are masked by the NOT result being low enough in % in the short term. Tracking it over time using a simulator you would see a small steady climb followed by sharp declines. Or if you're particularly unlucky you might get cracked early and it'll be even a tougher climb back up to evens.

One way to check to see if you will be net negative EV is to take historical data and lines and then analyze whether the book NOT price is juiced compared to the result. So you take all the -1500s and greater (or set whatever range) and then see what the result is if you just played each for 1u. My sense it that the spread is so juiced compared to base rates that you're probably giving up a few % in implied odds value for taking the NOT rare result.

[ichiro4thehall]

Great post, turbozed.

You understand your betting shit.

In regards to working out my edge(or not!) I just judge it using a mixture of experience plus looking at the bookies lines and calculating roughly their price for the bet. The bookie prices are way off the true price as method of victory bets tend to be more juiced than the fight result bet.

You couldn't make this work without having access to an exchange to lay bets(even with this liquidity and market efficiency is a problem). If you did try to back every outcome bar the one you believe will lose, without checking, you might be guaranteed a loss even if one of your outcomes wins due to the juiced prices.

Your second point is a great one about this particular match-up and maybe betting Not Herman by sub. I've never actually heard the term club and sub before but you are exactly right that this is a definite danger.

Here, I'd be hoping Herman either KOs him quick with hammer fists if GM3 was knocked down and really hurt, else if it is just a stun knockdown then just hope he respects GM3s ground game that much that he lets him back up.

If I was betting more money on this I'd go through all Herman's fights to try and see what his tendencies are when knocking an opponent down, most fighters tend to do the same thing each time more or less.

Anyone got any suggestions for any Not by that method bets for this card? There will be another forum consensus pick if any bets are suggested.

[Hugo de Naranja]

It's actually the other way around: "Club and Sub". It means hurting the opponent with strikes than finishing with a submission.

[ichiro4thehall]

What you guys think about Not Shahbazyan by Sub? Club and sub would be a big danger here I feel, bigger than in Herman fight.

Luque never been KO'd and been in with a ton of better strikers and harder hitters than Randy Brown. Not Brown by KO? The big worry here for me looking at Brown's record is he KO'd Barberena who has about as good a chin as it gets. He is much easier to hit tho than Luque will be, tho Luquq likes the macho phone booth stuff that will make for nervous viewing if you have the Not by KO bet on Brown.

[ichiro4thehall]

It's actually the other way around: "Club and Sub". It means hurting the opponent with strikes than finishing with a submission.

Yeah, noticed it myself and edited it, cheers for the spot.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What you guys think about Not Shahbazyan by Sub? Club and sub would be a big danger here I feel, bigger than in Herman fight.

Luque never been KO'd and been in with a ton of better strikers and harder hitters than Randy Brown. Not Brown by KO? The big worry here for me looking at Brown's record is he KO'd Barberena who has about as good a chin as it gets. He is much easier to hit tho than Luque will be, tho Luquq likes the macho phone booth stuff that will make for nervous viewing if you have the Not by KO bet on Brown.

Once the full odds are out I'll get back to you if I see anything you might like.

[ichiro4thehall]

For Shabazyan Not by sub, only one boookie has prices at the moment for the For bet and its +1100, that prob means best I could get matched on exchange is -1250 and imo has no value here. I'd want -800 or better for this bet.

Brown by KO is +550 on the one bookie with prices up. This is better. I'd be happy to bet Not Brown by KO at -750 or better.

No prices yet for GM Herman fight. I'd want -800 or better there also.

[ichiro4thehall]

Once the full odds are out I'll get back to you if I see anything you might like.

Cheers, man. I always listen to experts!

[Honeybadger44]

What you guys think about Not Shahbazyan by Sub? Club and sub would be a big danger here I feel, bigger than in Herman fight.

Luque never been KO'd and been in with a ton of better strikers and harder hitters than Randy Brown. Not Brown by KO? The big worry here for me looking at Brown's record is he KO'd Barberena who has about as good a chin as it gets. He is much easier to hit tho than Luque will be, tho Luquq likes the macho phone booth stuff that will make for nervous viewing if you have the Not by KO bet on Brown.

Yeah knocking out Barbarena is pretty impressive, but Bambam loved to block the punches with his face way too much. That chin got worn out and that KO had to happen sooner or later.

It's true that Luque trusts his chin too much sometimes and has been in couple of wars lately, but I'd say that was because he fought some tough opposition. I don't think Brown is quite on that level. Luque is faster and more technical to get caught with something he won't see

[ichiro4thehall]

Bet 6

Not Cody Durden by KO/TKO (-760)

Risking 64.42 to win 8.47

Interesting note about Durden. Every second fight in his career he has either won by submission or lost by submission. The pattern will continue if he wins or loses by sub tonight. Since Guttierez only has one sub win, I'm going to sprinkle a little on Durden by sub at +1500 because I'm a numbers/patterns kinda bettor. No system play mind!

[ichiro4thehall]

Bet 7

Not Maia by TKO/KO (-950)

Risking 64.44 (made mistake in bet 6 stake should have been 64.43 and this is to correct and balance) to win 6.78

This is why exchanges are great. Someone was actually asking for this price +950 on Maia to win by KO and I was more than happy to oblige. Think this is the best value bet so far - which guarantees absolutely nothing and prob means it will be my first loser! But gambling is all about value, nothing else matters. Results smazults, only value counts.

GL all tonight!

[ichiro4thehall]

Bankroll 144.11(+44.11)
Record 7-0

Hopefully have a couple of bets tonight. Not liking much, trying to get bets on the folllowing mathced right now on exchange.

Not Kunitskaya by sub
Not Buckley by KO
Not Stewart by sub

[ichiro4thehall]

Bet 8

Not Kunitskaya by submission (-1150) Rising 72.05 to win 6.26

This is an interesting fight. Looked like a mismatch to me on paper but a ton of money on the exchanges has traded on it and Stoliarenko getting backed heavily. I still see this as a mismatch, Stliarenko beaten only very inexperienced Euros recently all by armbar. Yana has armbar loss but I see her dominasting on feetr, she has been in with the best and is tough.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bet 8

Not Kunitskaya by submission (-1150) Rising 72.05 to win 6.26

This is an interesting fight. Looked like a mismatch to me on paper but a ton of money on the exchanges has traded on it and Stoliarenko getting backed heavily. I still see this as a mismatch, Stliarenko beaten only very inexperienced Euros recently all by armbar. Yana has armbar loss but I see her dominasting on feetr, she has been in with the best and is tough.

Best of luck sir