[Risto234]

While most countries in this region still dont start with their domestic leagues anytime soon then (luckily) it's not the case here as our Esiliiga season starts on thursday and Flora starts their title defending one day later and with that in mind i guess it's okay to start with this thread here ...

Also in recent days there have been some draws ...

Nations League: Georgia/Macedonia/Estonia/Armenia - as long as we dont finish rockbottom this time we should be good. Still i'd say if we finish 3rd or higher/score 3+ goals/collect 3+ points in this group then this could be already job well done or not ...

And estonian cup QF-s take place pretty much 1 month earlier this time with games being played next tuesday-wednesday
Kalju - Trans
Elva - Kohtla-Järve U21
Tammeka - Flora
Võru Helios - Kalev

From Paide point of view it's probably the best possible draw cause Tammeka and Trans who are probably 2 teams who might take EL place away from them basically received toughest possible opponents ...

[Metanoia2020]

A few years back i use to follow the estonian league, it was a gold mine for betting overs, nowadays not so much, but i haven't been following close. Keep up the thread and good luck

[Risto234]

Time to get it started. Finally.

Sunday in Meistriliiga
Tammeka vs Tulevik
14:00 CET
1st half over 1.0 goals @1.67

I guess i'll stick to 5€ bets (if not stated otherwise) and bankroll is 500€ (cause why not)

Anyway last game in week 1 sees Tammeka hosting Viljandi tomorrow. Both sides probably would like to improve this season having finished 5th and 7th last season but whether they succeeded in doing so or not - that's probably different question ... Also Tammeka probably wants to avoid having another nightmare start to the season like they had last year when at some point they even were rockbottom in the league ... However their squad have stayed pretty much the same cause only 3 players left and (2 starting CBs from which one went to Finland and other one back to where he came from - norway's lower leagues) only one new CB joined during the winter ... Meanwhile Viljandi squad has seen way more changes so it's intresting to see how well they are going to play or whatever. Also last season Viljandi games saw most goals in first half (68) and i believe they had like 7 games (from 36) all season which stayed goalless at HT and they also had periods where 10+ consecutive leaguegames saw goal in the first half. With that in mind i hope that neither team isn't going to be too cautious first so let's see how bad this idea is

[Risto234]

Time to get it started. Finally.

Sunday in Meistriliiga
Tammeka vs Tulevik
14:00 CET
1st half over 1.0 goals @1.67

at HT: Tammeka - Viljandi 0:1 - guess refund is always better than loss:

[Risto234]

Today in estonian cup QF ...
Kalju vs Trans
18:00 CET
Both teams to score @1.93


Our domestic season haven't even lasted like 2 full weeks and these 2 teams are already going head-to-head for the second time this season.. Both teams met on saturday in the league when Kalju won 1:0 thanks to goal inside first 200 seconds.. Since it's so early to the season i doubt that neither team is going to make several changes here ... Narva pretty much dominated saturday's game but that's understandable considering Kalju let them to do so after getting very early goal and they are also usually better when they dont have to dominate the game. Still they are at home now and here i doubt them even thinking about playing defensively. I'd imagine that Trans first task here is NOT to concede but unless they're planning to keep 0:0 for 120 minutes then they'll need to come out to attack at some point so they'd be able to keep their EL hopes alive and as i doubt that Kalju fails to score at home eventhough they (sometimes) struggle at home vs weaker teams then i predict both sides to find the net.

[Risto234]

Today in estonian cup QF ...
Kalju vs Trans
18:00 CET
Both teams to score @1.93

Final score 1:2 so current bankroll is 504.65€

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Flora II - Levadia II
* game starts next full hour *
under 4 goals @1.69

Keep this one short: i only waited this long to see the line-ups and since Flora isn't getting any help from first team unlike Levadia who have first team back-up GK starting aswell as some other first-team players then i'll go with unders here. Currently it's raining aswell here in Tallinn so this should also help. Anyway story id still the same: whenever under 4 is available with great odds then hopefully for once teams are better in defending than in attacking. Also this match might be aswell the last one here which isn't going to postponed so i guess i've to wait and see what decision our football assasociation makes today ...

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Flora II - Levadia II
* game starts next full hour *
under 4 goals @1.69

With all sporting events cancelled until may 1 then atleast it's good thing that last game here won cause game finished 2:1. Therefore current bankroll 508.10€

[Risto234]

Tuesday in Meistriliiga:
Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju
18:00 CET
5€ on both teams NOT to score @1.90


After 2 month break our league finally continues with games. Since we are fourth european league to do so (and the only one playing this tue-wed) we'd have no problems with audience cause apart from one match in Belarus there's probably not too much to look in midweek games ... Anyway Kure started this season with 0:1 defeat vs Levadia so i expect them to put up similar perfomance this time aswell where they defend well enough but on the other hand aren't too effective offensively ... Kalju defense usually manages to be anything but rocksolid vs weaker teams but as usually 2=3 then considering last 2 h2h leaguegames in Kuressaare saw just one team finding the net (if even that) then i expect similar result this time aswell ...

[cashin81]

Paide both score 2.88!

[cashin81]

does flora tallin own Tameka tartu? they have a relationship? cant remember

[Risto234]

Tuesday in Meistriliiga:
Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju
18:00 CET
5€ on both teams NOT to score @1.90

2:0 win for visitors so current bankroll 517.60€

[Risto234]

does flora tallin own Tameka tartu? they have a relationship? cant remember

Times when Flora "owned" other teams are long over and Tammeka have never been one of these teams either ...

[Risto234]

Sunday in Meistriliiga

Viljandi vs Kalju
12:00 CET
5€ on Kalju -1 AH @1.74
5€ on 1st half over 1 goal @1.61

Viljandi may have scored first half goal in each of the 3 leaguegames so far this season but guess it's not that big surprise anymore since already last season their games saw most 1. half goals so maybe they'll do same trick this season aswell ... Anyway these early goals haven't helped them so much yet cause despite going 1:0 up in each of these matches they eventually managed to lose 2 ... Kalju' all leaguegames this season have also seen goal(s) in the first half so hopefully both teams continue being leaky at the back and therefore dont settle for goalless HT result. Kalju have also won like 11 of the last 12 h2h games and after managing to lose homegame vs Legion last week i'd imagine that they dont make any gifts to weaker teams anytime soon ...

[Risto234]

Sunday in Meistriliiga

Viljandi vs Kalju
12:00 CET
5€ on Kalju -1 AH @1.74
5€ on 1st half over 1 goal @1.61

So it's 2/2 cause 3 goals in either half helped Kalju to win this match by 6 goals so current bankroll is 524.35€

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Levadia
18:00 CET
4€ on Kalju DnB @1.97

Levadia have started this season quite perfectly as they've won all 4 games so far although they did concede in the last 2 ... However Kalju havent been this good this year cause eventhough they have won all 3 awaygames to nil they still managed to lose both 2 homegames this season ... Levadia seems to be favourite here but then again they have been that vs Kalju recently aswell couple times and each time pretty much failed to deliver... Levadia havent won h2h leaguegame for 3 years and during the last 10 h2h games they drew 3 and lost 7 matches ... Since this match will be played on artifical turf then anything can happen i guess but still at home i expect Kalju to finally start playing and therefore get atleast draw from this game. Also it seems that this game will be streamed live in youtube so in case someone dont have better things to ... https://youtube.com/watch?v=1gpBP8V9sf0

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Levadia
18:00 CET
4€ on Kalju DnB @1.97

Guess Levadia agony in (away)games vs Kalju continues cause they lost 0:2 so current bankroll is 528.23€

[cashin81]

do you play the lower leagues in estonia? massive odds swings.

[Risto234]

do you play the lower leagues in estonia? massive odds swings.

Whenever under 4 odds are decent enough then yes ...
Although not today eventhough some of them have great odds on under 3.5/4 goals market ...

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Flora
14:00 CET
5€ on Kalju AH0 @2.22

Both sides have won 4 leaguegames so far but neither of them havent been as perfect as Dude Perfect (???) since they both have already dropped points ... Still teams come to this match from winning streaks having won 2 and 3 consecutive games so sad truth is that (atleast) for one team their winning streak comes to an end. I'd imagine that this artificial pitch is still dry therefore in (not so) excellent condition so we probably see another (very) physical game here. Kalju have also won 4 of the last 9 h2h leaguegames while losing just once so perhaps just like on wednesday they can actually get something from this game aswell.

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Legion - Tulevik
18:30 CET
5€ on 1st half over 1.0 goals @1.72


Since beating Kalju few weeks ago Legion haven't been that brilliant anymore cause they are winless and goalless in 4 games but on the other hand they did kept clean sheet in both of the last 2 matches. At the same time Viljandi havent been superior either cause they lost 3 of the last 5 matches but they do seem to start strongly cause from 7 matches so far they did went to HT with a lead in 5. Also so far this season their games have seen 9 first half goals so perhaps they'll continue causual strategy to avoid goalless first half and we'll see goal(s) in the first half of this match aswell ...

[Risto234]

So yesterday Viljandi showed another decent 1st half perfomance cause for the 6. time this season they want to HT break with a lead. This time they were leading "just" 1:0 though thanks to 3rd min goal ...


Anyway today in Meistriliiga
Flora vs Levadia
18:30 CET
5€ on Levadia over 1.0 goals @1.87


Both teams have scored in 6 of their 7 games so far but while Flora is still unbeaten as they won 6 games incl most recent 5 then Levadia have gone backwards after winning first 4 matches cause they have only won 1 of the last 3 matches.. Flora may be favourite here and so on but despite inconsistent perfomances recently i still think that Levadia can get something here if they get their act together and avoid gifting opponent goals (like they did in last game) ... Both teams won 3 of the last 6 h2h games so i'd imagine we'll see another close game this time aswell.. Also Levadia scored in each of these matches so i expect them to get atleast (consolation) goal here should they again underperfom or whatever ...

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Kalev - Levadia
18:00 CET


Under 4 goals @1.62


Neither team haven't been too brilliant recently as Kalev is winless in 6 games after losing 5 during that time although they did drew last match 0:0. At the same time Levadia have won just 1 of the last 5 games as they are winless in 4. Also since they drew 3 of the last 4 games and now trail Flors by 10 points then surely they cant afford to drop anymore points ... So it is probably no surprise that Levadia so far this season have had problems with scoring cause their 2 top scorers have magnificent 3 goals to their name and they aren't rocksolid defensively either cause have conceded 15 in 10 games from which 11 came during the last 4 games.. Therefore story is still the same: whenever under 4 odds are decent enough you must hope that for once teams are amateurs offensively and world class defensively ...

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Flora vs Paide
15:00 CET
Flora -1 AH @1.90


I guess it is safe to say that both teams were brought back to earth earlier this week cause after 10 and 5 consecutive wins they both actually managed to lose leaguegame. Prior to their awaygame vs Viljandi Flora had dropped just 2 points all season so it'd be kinda hilarious if they go now 2 games without a win.. Paide meanwhile is still 2nd in the league but they also have like 3-4 important players unavailable so this might easily affect them.. Anyway Flora haven't lost not a single h2h match in the last 4 years as they won 6 of the last 7 h2h matches so i'm going with their win today aswell (although i'd be positively surprised should they fail to win here)

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Paide vs Kalju
18:30 CET
Kalju +0.5 AH @1.81


After 5 consecutive wins Paide have now gone backwards as they've lost 2 games in a row so at home it's time for them to redeem themselves perhaps... Meanwhile Kalju is unbeaten in 4 games as they won 3 during that time while conceding just one goal and they've won 2 in a row to nil aswell. Curiously enough 4 of the last 5 h2h games went to the away team. Kalju have also won last 6 h2h awaygames + in the league they haven't lost awaygame since may 2017 i think so hopefully they can extend that run and actually get something from this game.

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Flora vs Kalju
18:30 CET
X2 @2.55


Both sides are in great shape as they both won 4 of the last 5 matches so clearly they both would like to continue winning i'd imagine. Still while Kalju kept 3 clean sheets during that period then Flora practiced outscoring method since they conceded in all these games ... Flora may have collected maximumpoints vs other top4 clubs so far this season but clearly even they are far from being brilliant.. For Kalju game like this is probably pure luxury since they can play on grass instead of artifical turf so they'd be able to make decent perfomance.. Kalju still havent lost away leaguegame since 2017 - also Flora's last homewin vs Kalju was in that year so ... Anyway's i'm probably going to regret not taking Flora -1 AH here (so i'd be happy if they fail to win) but let's see..

[cashin81]

crazy stat that kalju havent lost away since 2017, never noticed.

good luck!

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Tammeka
18:30 CET
Kalju -1 AH @1.62

Both teams may have lost their last leaguegame but were victorius in midweek cup round when they beated lower league opponents 8:0 and 13:0 ... So guess one thing is certain: we dont see that many goals today ... Kalju started slowly at home as they won just 1 of the first 5 homegames while lost 4 but they seem to get back on track now as they've won 3 consecutive homegames to nil. Meanwhile Tammeka won 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 awaygames but as they were in format of WLWLW then ...
Tammeka have also yet to lose in Tallinn so far this season as they beated Legion here and drew with Levadia & Flora so i'd imagine they will make another solid perfomance today in this artificular turf and that despite having 2 defensive players unavailable ... Still Kalju have conceded least amount of goals (9) in the league so far this season so wouldn't surprised if they get typical 1:0 or 2:0 win here ... Also Kalju is the only estonian club which will be seeded in next seasons european competion first qualifying round but more about that next weekend ...

[Risto234]

Preview Time

Champions League 1st qualifying round (18-19 august)

Flora possible opponents:
Molde
Suduva
Dundalk
Slovan Bratislava

From that list Molde is probably the strongest one but others clearly arent joke teams either as Suduva have been (un)fortunate enough to fall on the last hurdle before groupstage in each of the last 3 seasons where they reached EL 4th quali round ... Dundalk have also been quite regular in this region recently cause few years ago they beated Levadia and last season their match in Latvia went all the way to penalties where they won i think ... And Bratislava reached EL groupstage last season & there in group with Besiktas, Wolves and some other team they finished third with 4p ...

As for Flora itself they may beat everyone domestically and so on but on the other hand they will need to start having constant decent results in europe ... Also their current squad may be easily the all time strongest so guess it's intresting to see are they going to (under)peform in european competions yet again or not ... Last seasons success when they knocked Radnicki out was only the second time in 20-22+ years when they actually knocked some club out so ... And this summer they've already boosted squad by bringing new GK & LB to the team ...

And the draw is made now: Flora - Suduva it is. Obviously odds arent out yet but as this is homegame then i'd imagine opponents odds are going to be slightly better than they usually would be so this is positive sign (or not) ...

So yeah at home in one leg game vs other Baltic club: what could be better. Shame though that these games take place behind closed doors though and for Flora i'd say if they dont reach (atleast) EL 3rd quali round then their european season is once again huge failure.

I'll probably have closer look on that game whenever odds do come out but for now it's time to wait for tomorrow's morning when Levadia, Kalju and Paide learn which opponents might knock them out.

[Risto234]

Preview Time vol 2

Europa League first qualifying round (27 august)

Levadia possible opponents:
Olimpija Ljubljana (SVN)
Maribor (SVN)
St Joseph's (GIB)/B36 Tórshavn (FRO)

Paide possible opponents:
ˇalgiris Vilnius (LTU)
Riteriai (LTU)
Budapest Honvéd (HUN)

Kalju possible opponents:
Mura (SVN)
Kauno ˇalgiris (LTU)
Bohemian (IRL)

Kalju is playing at home but they probably got hardest possible team. Still they known very well what it feels like to knock stronger teams out. Paide is heading to Lithuania for their first ever european game - Zalgiris probably will be favourite here but i´m sure that Paide will try to make it difficult for them. And for Levadia eventhough they also need to travel then atleast they managed to avoid slovenians so this should be half win ...

[Risto234]

Champions League 1st qualifying round
Flora vs Suduva
18:30 CET
Suduva to qualify @1.75

I'd imagine this is probably dream for either team specially as opponent arent too much stronger and so on ... Anyways both sides have been quite good decent recently as Flora have won 5 consecutive games while Suduva won 3 during that time and they both also dominate/are leading domestic leagues aswell at the moment cause Flora won 15 of the 17 games while Suduva won 11 of the 15 matches ... However in the last 20-22+ years Flora have only eliminated 2 opponents in european competions while Suduva in the last 3 seasons alone (when they made it to the EL 4th quali round each year) knocked out 7 teams ... So they clearly know what it takes to be succesful in europe - their current squad may not be as strong as in recent years but they still have like 10+ foreign players which is quite shame since they dont rely on local players ?!? Specially since Flora does exactly that (guess this must be reason they usually underperform in europe) - funnily enough Flora may have all the strongest squad full of local players right now but then again there are still estonians who aren't even in intrested joining them ...
Anyway yesterday all 1st quali round games went to the home team so i probably wouldn't mind if home team advances in this pair aswell but i still pick visitors to qualify here cause if they cant even beat us then surely they must be ...

[Risto234]

Thursday Special
Europa League 1st qualifying round

Kalju vs Mura
16:30 CET
Kalju over 0.5 goals @1.58
Mura -1 AH @1.88

This slovenian team who finished 4th last season and won cup recently is probably happy with their opponent since they probably got the weakest one ... Still their european history is not that great cause in their debut last year they lost both matches vs some israeli club. Mura may have played just 1 game in currrent new leagueseason but that was 2:0 win away vs defending champions Celje so clearly they seem to be fine on the road ... Meanwhile Kalju has much more european experience cause have played in european competions for 10+ years and they also know very well what it takes to eliminate stronger team cause did exactly that in 6 of the last 7 seasons. Kalju is going to play defensively here while making sure this match will be as physical as possible cause that is probably the only way for them to achieve here so i expect them to get atleast (consolation) goal here but i also went with opponents handicap to make sure that if this bet loses they are out or we see extra time ...

Zalgiris vs Paide
19:00 CET
Zalgiris -1 AH @1.61
Paide over 0.5 goals @1.57

Sadly we cant see this former Liverpool player anymore but Zalgiris probably has other (not so) decent foreign players too so ... Anyway Paide is making their european debut here so they have nothing to lose here and it seems that they are going all-in here cause they have signed like 3 new players in the summer. However Zalgiris aint joke team either cause have played in europe 8 consecutive seasons and during that time they eliminated 5 teams and they even played vs Sevilla not so long ago ... Anyways i am going with similar bets here cause expect Paide to get atleast (consolation) goal and went with hosts handicap to see how "good" they eventually are ...

B36 Torshavn vs Levadia
20:00 CET
Torshavn to qualify @1.66

When odds first came out they were like 50-50 with Levadia slight favourite but things have changed now ... This team played against Kalju some years ago and lost both matches so despite Levadia really cant underestimate team which has plenty faroese players alongside someone from Denmark and Poland ... Recent years clearly havent been great for Levadia cause in league they have finished second 5 years in a row and in europe they havent been superb either since beating some other faroese team 4 years ago cause in the last 3 years they fell on first hurdle ... Also this year Levadia have been anything but brilliant cause in league they are 17p behind leaders and have conceded already 26 goals - usually they dont even concede this many entire season ... So you may think things cant get any worse but in fact they did cause 4 attacking players from usual starting 11 were left home cause 2 are suspended and 2 just didnt get visas ... So with that in mind i am going with hosts to qualify here ...


As for the 3 games then who knows what is going to pehapn ... 3 defeats is sadly more realistic than 1 win but lets see. Also i hope that this trio have learned from Flora´ mistakes and actually have practiced penalties, dont waste substitutions (specially if match goes to ET) and most importantly dont waste chances where they are 6 vs 2/3 players ...

[od120731]

i think now it's a good time to reset the batteries before the next season starts

[Risto234]

Saturday in Nations League
Estonia vs Georgia
18:00 CET
Estonia over 0.5 goals @1.68

Both sides have been quite dreadful recently cause together they've managed to win just 1 of the last 5 matches and both teams come to this match from losing streaks aswell having lost 3 and 2 consecutive games so on positive note (atleast) for one team their miserable run will end here ... Anyway Estonia have failed to score in each of the last 5 games so still no surprise there but Georgia defense haven't been rocksolid either since they conceded in each of the last 3 games. Teams have met 5 times so far with we finding the net in 4 and curiously enough away team has never won in this h2h pair so hopefully this stays this way ... But after seeing "magnificent" perfomances by other baltic nations i guess there's real chance we might make same dreadful display (or even worse one) ... Latvia & Lithuania managed to score impressive 0 goals in their homegames so perhaps we aren't going to be this wasteful in front of goal for a change ...

[Risto234]

Today in Europa League (3rd qualifying round)
Floriana vs Malta
19:00 CET (although some sites still think this match starts 90 min later ...)
Floriana to qualify @1.80

Neither team havent been too succesful in european competions cause they both have knocked out staggering 3 opponents in their history but while Floriana's first 2 KO's came in the 90's i think then Flora have managed to KO one opponent last season aswell as in this season aswell.. Both sides are in decent shape aswell cause they've won 2 & 4 matches in a row. Floriana is at home so i doubt they'd be naive enough to park the bus here but they probably dont storm into attack either. Therefore i expect them to make sure that they are this team who will be "fortunate" enough to lose awaygame vs Dinamo Zagreb in the next round.
(As always i dont mind at all should this bet lose cause in that case it'd confirm these opponents are ... )