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I think this is a solid comment.Originally Posted by StackinGreen
The HALVING has been talked about enuf. People have heard about it. I've seen some videos where the optimism is out of control. Markets don't get mis-priced by a factor of ??x.
I still think that Bitcoin investors should be concerned that it really hasn't gone mainstream. What does Bitcoin solve? Invariably, u still have to convert it to Fiat 99% of the time.
Will it crease 9k today, Sam?
100pt bonus to the next guy who post a legitimate price of 10k+ in here.
It's now past $9k again. I might sell if it gets close to $10k, probably just before since it'll likely drop because people will take profit (yes I know I'm contributing to that).
Tell me more, papa. I'm mentally starting to sour on Bitcoin.
Is gold valued less because you can't spend it at the corner store?
If so, bitcoin solved that by being debit card loadable, if it even matters at all.
Bitcoin also solves cross border currency transfers. If I export to USA from here, using bitcoin to move the money will save about 3.5% over traditional banking.
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I'm not an expert (there are many people on here much smarter than I am on this thread about Bitcoin), but this is my opinion since you asked.
Personally, I'm not super long on Bitcoin because I think with the halvening, miners are going to try to make up the lost revenue with either the price going up or taking the higher paying transactions first. I think the latter will happen since that's easier for them to control and the mempool will continue to be backlogged and will be a pain in the ass to move money (or at least expensive) like in December 2017 when the mania was at its peak. This will turn off people who want to move bitcoin around to their wallets or for gambling which could drop the price since demand would be lower.
One of the things that helped Bitcoin's price in 2017 was that it was the crypto version of reserve currency in that every exchange accepted it. So if you wanted to speculate on another crypto on another exchange, you have to first fund it with bitcoin since not all exchanges could be funded with USD and many exchanges like Coinbase limited what you could buy, but everyone took Bitcoin which made it much more in demand. I do not see as many people speculating on other cryptos, plus there's more exchanges that let you deposit into the exchange with USD and have more of a selection to buy, so you don't necessarily need Bitcoin in order to speculate in other currencies. Coinbase only sold Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin in 2017. Binance had plenty of selection of coins, but you couldn't deposit USD into it and needed to fund it with a crypto like Bitcoin. Now Coinbase has closed that gap by offering more coins to trade.
I think it will hit $10k and then drop when people sell to cash in their profits (which is what I'm considering since I would double my money). Could the price then rebound and go higher? Sure, but I don't think many people have as much disposable cash to speculate these days like in 2017 to hold out or buy. If it hits $19k-$20k again like in 2017, I wouldn't be shocked, but I'm not going to hold out forever and see and would rather cash out on my double up and look at putting the money elsewhere like cheap stocks.
Warren Buffet has famously been against gold as an investment with the rationale that he could take that money and buy companies instead that pay dividends and has cash flow unlike gold. I find the same to be true with Bitcoin.
Last edited by mrpapageorgio; 05-03-20 at 12:56 AM.
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The cross border currency transfers is one of the biggest strengths of Bitcoin, but it's heavily dependent on if the miners continue to accept low fees after the halvening. I think they'll be more encouraged to prioritize higher fees since there will be fewer Bitcoins in each block to makeup lost revenue. If that happens, it's not going to be as attractive to move money. There are already cryptos that will move money faster and cheaper, they're just not as widely adopted (since they don't have that shiny name "Bitcoin"), but could change if Bitcoin gets slow and expensive.
Opti...I'm sure you're right. I just wish Bitcoin felt more TANGIBLE.
You made good points.
Truth is I think crypto as a competitor to traditional banks as a form of cross currency transfer must not really have gained much traction. As I am still paying the same exorbitant exchange rate premiums for foreign wires as I was 5 years ago.
I waited this long to actually start buying, slowly, that chances are I am wrong
The difference might be that it can be viewed as an asset class that has the added advantage of being easily transferred, while elements, precious metals, or objects in your hand, quite frankly, cannot be. That sets up its value on multiple levels, but mainly as collateral. Incidentally, that's what gold really is, since its practical use is very limited at best. Silver has far more practical applications, as a comparison.
I personally foresee digital currencies coming in the long term, and as such, I am a bitcoin bull based on this collateral angle. The why bitcoin? over other cryptos doesn't bother me, because you can and will always be able to make that objection with every coin before, and henceforth.
the xrp community has been saying for years now that their coin was going to solve the cross border archaic methods
that still hasn't really taken off yet huh? will it ever?
The objection of XRP in the crypto world is that it's a highly centralized coin where transactions are essentially done through one point. Basically the government could easily shut down the network itself if they wanted to where there's multiple computers that handle the Bitcoin network.
Truth is I think crypto as a competitor to traditional banks as a form of cross currency transfer must not really have gained much traction. As I am still paying the same exorbitant exchange rate premiums for foreign wires as I was 5 years ago.
I think there's 2 issues with that.
1. Big banks are happy with the status quo charging expensive foreign transaction fees and if they have to deal with crypto, that's another party they're paying money to (i.e. the exchanges) unless they want to do it themselves and that's a whole new regulation to deal with.
2. There is still a large learning curve for the population to use it widely. It's not as simple to move crypto across the border as walking into a Eastern Union or calling your bank. Even if you wanted to do the simplest method which is Coinbase allowing you to send crypto between other accounts by email, you still need to create an account with them and unless you're willing to use their pro system, the retail side is not cheap to sell.
Last edited by mrpapageorgio; 05-03-20 at 12:38 PM.
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I wouldn't get too caught up in the halving hype, at least for the short-term. Longer term it's a bit of a different story, as the lower block reward will have a large impact...especially on mining. This can have all kinds of potential effects, ranging from less efficient miners shutting down all the way to price increases.
What is certain though is that something has gotta give eventually. We only have a tiny sample size so far - but the last two halvings saw a bit of a fakeout at the time of halving to shake out some, followed by a rather stagnant period for 12-18 months to shake out even more, and finally a breakout before drawing down to more sustainable levels.
If the past is any indication, we should still have plenty of time to keep low-risk things like DCA strategies going. Or on the other end, it's fine to take a bit of profit. The real mistakes are most likely in feeling pressured by the halving hype and going big one way or the other.
The halvings themselves aren't the real destination, they're just important milestones on the way there.
In the past huge stock market corrections have seen much faster bounce backs than people expect.
I remember black Monday in 87 or 88. People seriously thought it was the end of the world as we knew it economically and some did the cliche jump out of windows thing like in the 20s.
Markets were back above pre crash levels one year later.
I am hoping a similar thing occurs post corona virus, and bitcoin follows it to some extent.
What are Folks' Views of the Price Impact of the Halvening Next Week?
Raiders, you wouldn't remember me, but back when I posted here a lot I learned to value your BTC insights and I'm confused about the Halvening.
I've got a passing understanding of crypto, but unless I'm missing something, it doesn't seem like the Halvening can genuinely exert much upward price pressure, so is the entire argument for a price boost reliant on the potential FOMO that the Halvening can exert a ton of upward price pressure that it can't actually exert?
Background for anyone interested: Most folks don't realize it, but each day 1800 new BTC are created which are used to pay the guys who make BTC transactions happen. Every 4 years, with the next one happening next week, that number gets cut in half.
Since this "Halvening" will cut the daily supply of new BTC created by 900 BTC per day, my first thought was, "OK, yeah, the miners who get all the new BTC probably sell it all every day, so this'll be a decrease of 900 BTC to the supply side of BTC sales. When supply decreases, price increases."
Except the problem is, a decrease of 900 BTC on the sell side ISN'T a lot. On average, over 160,000 BTC are sold per day, so a supply side decrease of 900 is barely a rounding error; it's a little more than one half of one percent.
It's been a while since I took Macro Econ, but I don't think a supply side contraction that small can possibly result in much genuine upward price pressure. (My brain's daring me to use the phrase "price elasticity," but it drank a lot last weekend so it can't be trusted.)
Or am I missing something?
Solid post. The problem with comparing this Halvening to the previous two is they were both bigger decreases in total BTC, plus those larger decreases hit marketplaces selling less BTC per day than today, so they had way more impact.
Four years ago the Halvening decreased supply by 1800 BTC per day and it hit a marketplace selling about 110,000 BTC per day. Next week the decrease will only be 900 BTC hitting a marketplace selling about 160,000 BTC per day.
*MPS starts counting on his fingers, runs out, takes off his socks and continues on his toes*
OK, after using very sophisticated maths, I think that calculates to a 1.6% decrease in daily BTC supply four years ago vs about a 0.6% decrease in supply next week.
I've had my limit buy set at $7500 for a while now. After this run I don't know if we see that again... but maybe I'm being suckered in by the 'halvening' hype. I'm going to hold off on another big buy for a little while and hope the market turns bearish soon.
9,045.16 USD Last trade price
4.91% 24hrs
Not sure that I see much Bear sentiment. $9300 now, up 14% in L7 days.
Are we witnessing effect of Halvening? Or is this set up for the Whale Sell/buy at $10k?
I remember you MPS. You were a great asset to the crypto community here and then vanished for a few years only to make your triumphant return recently.
MeanPeopleSuck was one of the people with good smarts and info.
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Were so close to 10k so HODL them coinz
I already have my bitcoin on limit sell order once it hits $10k, might adjust it to $9950 or something like that just in case a million others have their sell orders set at $10k.
Yes, expect a price decrease, we are all in agreement. What would bring it substantially down still at this time would be a stock market drop. As time goes on, though, we'll see the decoupling of BTC and gold with other financial instruments, even though that might not be as noticeable until the post Trump days.
For you longer-term players that are holding on to BTC, what effect do you think the halving will have say in a year or so?
Thanks, great to see you all again!
It rocks seeing old buddies like Jake, trytrytry, MrPapa, Raiders and the rest of you guys. It's also nice meeting new friends like Stackin and a few others.
Yeah, the Team Effort approach definitely feels like the right way to tackle crypto. It's too effin' confusing for anything else.
I'm with ya there, Papa. It was easy to start accumulating bitcoin after the March crash to $5-6k, but up here my thinking's all about finding the right prices to sell.
I mean, I'd be content with the profits selling now, but I also keep asking myself, "OK, but how dumb will you feel if you sell now and some combination Halvening Mania and FOMO strikes and 3 weeks from now we're sitting at 12k?"
So, as always, crypto's got me on the back foot.
IMHO, except for probably permanent increases in fees to send bitcoin, I don't think the Halvening will have any long term effect on BTC's price.
Fuk it, I sold at $9350 and took my profit. Not gonna keep watching it to see if it climbs another $700. If it does, oh well and hope others here make money, but happy to essentially double up. Did better with the money I withdrew from the sportsbooks back in March sit in bitcoin and double up than let it sit in a book and only get 20% with strings.
Friends always ask me why I waste my time on sports betting (a generally negative expectations game) versus market analysis (a generally positive expectations game). There are several reasons, one of which you've hit on here. In sports betting, you only have to make a single decision, making the wager. In the markets, you have to make two decisions, buy and sell. Two times as hard to get it right.
Having said that, I have been entertaining myself recently trying to develop a system for trading in cryptos and stocks. Specifically I'm doing technical analysis (currently Bollinger Bands) to generate buy and sell at specific levels. This way, both decisions are automated. Does it work? I don't know. I'm just following the suggestions (sort of) and haven't had the time to analyze the results. Wasting too much time trying to sort out my crypto trading tax mess. I'll share when I get time.
Bsims is a Sharp in various and sundry of areas
Over that famous $9500 mark. Let’s see if we can keep this up 👍
The first two Halvings preceded a major breakout for BTC price. See chart below. Will that happen this time? Who knows. I hope history repeats itself.
I don't try to overthink it. I'm not sure what will happen short term but I'm confident long term. The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior..https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-th...rice-increase/Xangle’s findings show that since the first halving on November 28, 2012, the price soared by 8069% one year after the event. One year after the second halving on July 9, 2016, ’s price jumped by 284%
Great to see you around again. We now have a strong group of bitcoin posters.
edit- ace, I missed your post saying the same as what I said above.
Last edited by raiders72001; 05-07-20 at 10:42 AM.
Well you’re welcome everyone. As soon as I sell to just lock in profit, the price is shooting for $10k lol
Almost $10k. Does it hit today?
Does the $10k figure trigger a sell-off?
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