[danrubin12]

Everyone loves an interesting prop bet. But please don’t bet on which team Tom Brady will play for next. I did an analysis calculating the hold books are raking in from this futures bet and it's over 30%.
I know it’s exciting and I know it’s fun to speculate. It also makes for great clickbait - both Action Network and ESPN have posted articles recently speculating on the odds of Tom Brady joining X team.
But what the Action Network (with a tagline “Smart betting made easy”) and ESPN neglect to tell you is that it is among the worst bets you can make.
Here’s why.
The Hold is…WHAT?!
The Action Network referenced odds from FanDuel in their article. They provide very little analysis (with incorrect calculations of implied probabilities) and four links to FanDuel to encourage you to place a wager into a market with a >30% hold for FanDuel.
Since odds are constantly moving, I grabbed the odds for this prop from FanDuel at 7:00pm ET on March 6th.
FanDuel Futures Odds - Tom Brady's Next Team

New England Patriots	-155
Tennessee Titans	+250
Los Angeles Chargers	+750
Las Vegas Raiders	+850
San Francisco 49ers	+1000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+1500
Dallas Cowboys	+2900
Miami Dolphins	+2900
New York Giants	+2900
Indianapolis Colts	+3700
No Team/Retired	+3700
Chicago Bears	+5000
Carolina Panthers	+6000

At first glance, it’s hard to tell if this is a good or bad bet offering.
SPOILER ALERT: it’s bad. When we calculate the hold on this market it comes to 31.44%.
Hold Calculation
Clearly the Patriots are the favorite here. So why wouldn’t FanDuel simply offer up Patriots vs the Field?
For one, people love to bet on their favorite team rather than the “Field”. It’s exciting to get big odds on a long shot, and through our own biases we find ways to convince ourselves that X team "has value".
But FanDuel didn’t offer this variety of options to benefit you. They offered it to line their pockets with your money. You see, to get an equivalent hold (31.44%) on Patriots vs Field, FanDuel would have to offer Pats/Field at -155/-570. Yes, you read that correctly: -155/-570.
I could continue to trash on the Action Network, but I was always taught to give credit where credit’s due: FanDuel doesn’t even offer the worst odds on this prop.
We checked out the odds at several other sportsbooks offering this prop, namely Westgate (referenced by ESPN), William Hill, BetMGM and PointsBet. What we found were even more egregious offerings:

Sportsbook	Theoretical Hold
Westgate	28.57%
FanDuel	31.44%
William Hill	38.27%
BetMGM	41.28%
PointsBet	45.58%
Average	37.03%

Disgusting. Giving someone $1.00 today with the expectation of receiving $0.63 in return 6 months from now is borderline criminal. Do yourself a favor and find something else to bet on.

[eaglesfan371]

Good write up.

[Emily_Haines]

The max bet is $100 on this

No one is getting hurt that bad

[rm18]

Still can be value. Lamar was +25000 for Heisman Dak was +30000 for ROY despite a big hold.

[jjgold]

most future bets are sucker juice

Always remember that

[semibluff]

The greater the number of possible outcomes the greater the total book price. The more uncertain the market the greater the total book price. Simple gambling market economics. If you find value then bet it. If you don't find value then don't bet it, unless you're ok just betting for entertainment. If you bet a 3-way line on the Premier League you're likely betting into a 104% book. If you bet an NFL handicap 2-way line you're betting into a 105% book. If you bet an F1 race with 6 possible winners sportsbooks will probably make you bet into a 119% book when 110% would be more reasonable.

[johnnyvegas13]

The max bet is $100 on this

No one is getting hurt that bad

I would put a bill on the colts

Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired

[stevenash]

most future bets are sucker juice

Always remember that

Correct..

For every ten futures bets maybe two of them have very good value, the other eight are extreme sucker bets.
If you can spot the twenty percent long term future bets and don't mind tieng up your money for months at a time than go for it but you're better off with daily low volume spot wagers if you ask me.

[stevenash]

I would put a bill on the colts

Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired

Rivers will probably go to Indy but that again is still speculation.
Nobody outside the insiders in the teams front office knows what they are thinking.
Not only that come draft day there could be an unsuspected trade up or down that surprises everybody.
Now the Giants are saying they may trade their overall number four pick.
Or not.
You just don't know what's going to happen.

[johnnyvegas13]

Rivers will probably go to Indy but that again is still speculation.
Nobody outside the insiders in the teams front office knows what they are thinking.
Not only that come draft day there could be an unsuspected trade up or down that surprises everybody.
Now the Giants are saying they may trade their overall number four pick.
Or not.
You just don't know what's going to happen.

Agree

But it only makes sense that he goes to a team w a good o line

Which imo colts have

U can eliminate a lot of teams w bad o line / non contender

[BigdaddyQH]

Agreed. Rivers needs a good OL to protect him because he simply cannot move real well. He needs that pocket. I have a friend who make a wager at a sportsbook in Las Vegas. HE took Rivers to Indy and Brady to Tennessee in a parlay wager offered by that particular book. I do not know what he got for odds, but I believe it was in the vicinity of 12 or 13/1.

[Plaza23]

-155 is a steal for the Patriots. Brady’s legacy is being with one team his entire career. He isn’t going to play anywhere else and the Patriots can pay him more than any other team.

A real bet would be Patriots -250 vs Retire +200.

[jjgold]

Pats it is
I think we will hear and announcement within 2 weeks

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I have to believe that if Brady was staying, he would've already signed. He's going elsewhere or retiring.

[Snowball]

I think he's gone - and told Belichick to Fuq Off on the phone this week.

Kraft will have to override Belichick, or can him.

[johnnyvegas13]

I have to believe that if Brady was staying, he would've already signed. He's going elsewhere or retiring.

From all recent interview he insists he's not retiring

So all we know is he is gonna play and play for a contender

[Harry N. Lloyd]

I would put a bill on the colts

Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired

Johnny Johnny Johnny, tsk tsk tsk.

Do you not remember Deflategate? That playoff game when the Pats beat Indy 45-7 but the crybaby Colts blamed it all on the footballs and then Brady got fined millions of dollars and had to serve a 4 game suspension?

Brady is more likely leave Giselle for Lena Dunham than he is to suit up for those sniveling snitches, the Colts.

[Bostongambler]

He stays


Thread Closed!

[stevenash]

He stays


Thread Closed!

More than likely he stays in New England but it makes for good sports radio talk.
Colts or Pats.

[DoctorStrong]

I think he leaves

[TheGuesser]

I have to believe that if Brady was staying, he would've already signed. He's going elsewhere or retiring.

Why? He's reveling in all this pub, and he is enjoying being a Free agent for the first time. He'll listen to others love all over him, and then re-sign with NE. If he signs with NE early, he misses out on all the fun.

[thechaoz]

Those lines are a joke.

[The Kraken]

Those lines are a joke.

Almost as bad as the ones I had last weekend

Shits getting saddddd

[Grits n' Gravy]

I would put a bill on the colts

Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired

Like Harry said, no chance. Indy snitches.

[cincinnatikid513]

any team that gives a declining 43 year old 30 million plus a year has lost it's mind

welcome to the raiders tom

[danrubin12]

-155 is a steal for the Patriots. Brady’s legacy is being with one team his entire career. He isn’t going to play anywhere else and the Patriots can pay him more than any other team.

A real bet would be Patriots -250 vs Retire +200.

For those who are *certain* that he's going to the Pats, I'd suggest shopping for the best line out there. I've found books with -125...

[danrubin12]

hope no one laid -155 on Pats...