[HeeluvaGuy]

1/21

7:00
Toledo/Ohio o141.5

[bigbluemist]

GL bud!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00

Florida/LSU u143

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/21

7:00
Toledo/Ohio o141.5

7:00

Florida/LSU u143

1-1 -.1u
YTD: 90-70 +13.23u
Jan: 38-32 +2.3u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Fairly easy winner in the over, but the under was dead almost from the tip.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/22

VMI/Wofford o138.5

[coolguy73739]

1/22

VMI/Wofford o138.5

I had a hard look at this game but 138.5 looked TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE.. besides low tempo for the game, Wofford spread of -13 (looks inflated though) also indicates something amiss in VMI camp, Doubt they will score 64 point, But Hey I might be wrong for all you know.. GL

[HeeluvaGuy]

I had a hard look at this game but 138.5 looked TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE.. besides low tempo for the game, Wofford spread of -13 (looks inflated though) also indicates something amiss in VMI camp, Doubt they will score 64 point, But Hey I might be wrong for all you know.. GL

Dig a little deeper on the tempo. The VMI coach has been there since 2016. In the 9 games played since he arrived, the average number of possessions is 70.2 (high of 77, low of 64). Wofford’s coach is in his first season as a head coach, but he was on Mike Young’s staff for several years and doesn’t appear to have changed much.

So why the higher than expected number of possessions when Wofford is notoriously a slower team? Simple. VMI’s defense sucks. They are consistently bottom 1/3 in defensive efficiency and are down there again this year. While Wofford is a slower team, they will run opportunistically. Against a poor defense, that translates to shorter possession times, which translates to more possessions over the course of the game.

Other aspects I like are Wofford’s 3 point % at home (42%) and VMI’s poor 3 point defense. You’re right that VMI will need to contribute here. Fortunately, they are a very good 3 point shooting team (36%), and Wofford allows teams to score an above average percentage of their points from deep.

Just a few of the other things I look at while trying to find an advantage. I try not to get hung up on a number being too good to be true. That stuff will drive you crazy.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Probably it for the day:

8:30

Providence/Seton Hall o137

[HeeluvaGuy]

Final add:

7:00

Georgia Tech/Louisville u132.5

[loveofsports]

I always struggle deciding to go with your picks or taking all of the ten point plus differentials that are up for grabs for the day.

What do you think will earn more money by end of season ?

[bigbluemist]

Final add:

7:00

Georgia Tech/Louisville u132.5

Being a UK fan I have a hard doing anything with UL😂😂

[HeeluvaGuy]

I always struggle deciding to go with your picks or taking all of the ten point plus differentials that are up for grabs for the day.

What do you think will earn more money by end of season ?

Man I wish I knew. The model has taken some lumps the last week or so. For better or worse, it looks like my numbers are getting closer to the posted lines.

if you look back at post #381, I posted my records for the two previous threads I’ve done (one of them is linked in the first post here, and the other thread is linked in that thread). I was in the black both of those seasons, and combined with this year I have hit right at 55%. Since this is the first season I have used this model, I unfortunately can’t give that same kind of history using just the 10+.

The way things have gone the last week, I wouldn’t find fault with anyone cutting back on volume. At least until things start looking up a bit.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Being a UK fan I have a hard doing anything with UL

I know the feeling. Two nights ago I had resigned myself to playing the Duke under, but wanted to wait until the morning to double check a couple of things. The line moved down, so I passed. I think it was as high at 151, but it closed at 147. Ended on 148. No matter what those bastards do, it’s annoying as hell.

[bigbluemist]

Final add:

7:00

Georgia Tech/Louisville u132.5

Opposing teams the last two nights shooting 70%+ the 1st 10-12 min of a game is getting annoying 🤦*♂️😱

[HeeluvaGuy]

Opposing teams the last two nights shooting 70%+ the 1st 10-12 min of a game is getting annoying 臘*♂️

Sometimes the averages average out. Surprising win there.

[docgerry1]

Your model shows the seton hall game to go under by 8...yet you chose to take the over...? Is this a first?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Your model shows the seton hall game to go under by 8...yet you chose to take the over...? Is this a first?

Could be. I liked the expected pace in that one along with some other fundamentals. Need good things in the second half still.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/22

VMI/Wofford o138.5

Probably it for the day:

8:30

Providence/Seton Hall o137

Final add:

7:00

Georgia Tech/Louisville u132.5

1-1-1 -.1u

YTD: 91-71 +13.13u
Jan: 39-33 +2.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
I think my last winning day was 9 days ago. Just awful right now. Hope some folks got a better line on the Seton Hall game and had a winning night.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/23

8:00

South Alabama/Arkansas St o133.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/23

8:00

South Alabama/Arkansas St o133.5

1-0 +1u
YTD: 92-71 +14.13u
Jan: 40-33 +3.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Feels like forever since the last winning day. May not have time for any Friday picks but I should have the spreadsheet updated soon.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/24

7:00

Niagara/Monmouth o142



I’m considering one other, but need the line to move.

[jimm246]

1/24

7:00

Niagara/Monmouth o142



I’m considering one other, but need the line to move.

Which one are you considering?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Which one are you considering?

Canisius/Iona under. When I handicapped it, the line was at 150. When I went to place it, it dropped to 148.5. I’d like to get back to 150.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/24

7:00

Niagara/Monmouth o142

1-0 +1u
YTD: 93-71 +15.13u
Jan: 41-33 +4.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

[kingdom]

1-0 +1u
YTD: 93-71 +15.13u
Jan: 41-33 +4.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

nice model....of consistency as well.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/25


12:00
Missouri/West Virginia u134

1:00
Mercer/VMI o142

2:00
Nebraska/Rutgers u142.5

[bigbluemist]

What’s the opinion on buying the hook? It seems over the years I’ve lost a lot of games by .5 point. I usually buy it

[HeeluvaGuy]

What’s the opinion on buying the hook? It seems over the years I’ve lost a lot of games by .5 point. I usually buy it

I’m very much opposed to buying points on totals. Let’s say a total is 140. Half a point is ~.3% of that total, but you’re paying nearly 10% for that half point. That’s one reason.

A second reason is that when you go from -110 lines to -120 lines, your break even % goes from 52.4% to 54.5%. That’s a big difference in this game, so I would have to see data that says your probability of winning goes up >2% to justify the expense.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I expect I’ll have more plays later today. I got through the 3:00 games last night and I’ll pick up there after a run, etc.

[bigbluemist]

I expect I’ll have more plays later today. I got through the 3:00 games last night and I’ll pick up there after a run, etc.

Curious to hear your thoughts on the 330 Kennesaw St-Jacksonville St over 135

[RM Logic]

Curious to hear your thoughts on the 330 Kennesaw St-Jacksonville St over 135

Jacksonville State plays Morehead State total 135
Kennesaw State plays Jacksonville U. total 126

Not sure which one you are looking at.

Kennesaw and Jacksonville cant throw the ball in the ocean.

[bigbluemist]

Jacksonville State plays Morehead State total 135
Kennesaw State plays Jacksonville U. total 126

Not sure which one you are looking at.

Kennesaw and Jacksonville cant throw the ball in the ocean.

Kennesaw-Jacksonville

[GoCougs!]

Keep up the great work. I appreciate what you are doing!

[doubledime]

Good luck today.

So many games to handicap today.

[HeeluvaGuy]

This is up to the 6:00 games. I'll try to get to the rest later.

4:30

Robert Morris/LIU o144.5

5:00

Morehead St/Jacksonville St o135.5

BYU/San Francisco u149

5:15

Arkansas St/Troy o141