[KVB]

Due to a promise I made to the Forum some time back, I will be concentrating on this thread with nearly every post I make.

A lot of analysis and game talk has been in the daily thread, missing this thread, and had say, for example, last night's game been talked about in this thread, we would be able to make a connection to the team scoring and how they bring it.

I missed that teaching point and moment, so the good news is that we should see many more moments in this thread than we have been seeing. I may also write a bit more, along with the plays, but no plays will be posted elsewhere, but perhaps results will.

It's football time, let's see where this season takes us.

CashFlow, I'm texting you in by the middle of this month depending on how recovery goes. Haven't heard from you in a while, hopefully there's not a bad reason for that.

Might increase the units in each Fund except the larger upsets, the new Fund for this year. If so I'll probably get into the details here.

I am actually glad this NCAAF season has started negative, and by as much as it has, as I anticipate there will be a lot of upside going forward.

[Bostongambler]

Yay KVB!!!!! 👏 👏

[Ra77er]

[Tanko]

Fantastic KVB --> gettin it done.

[KVB]

Here's a situation developing. Ball St is in the UPSET Basket at +160.

The line has moved a way a bit, but instead of being a part of that idea of a buyback, it's actually qualifying for the Visiting Dog ML Fund, or at least right on the edge.

Tecnically, we could pull the trigger here at +170 and it's a wonder the market is stalling at right around there, or just below.

I'm looking at +170 at reduced juice right now and could pull the trigger. Perhaps it gets to 175, but it's also very possible that this line drops back down under pressure, giving us value in that Visiting Dog ML Fund.

I'm watching this development closely.

Here's the NCAAF UPSET Basket so far...

321	5-Oct	BALL ST +160
327		BAYLOR +110
343		ARIZONA +135
367		W MICHIGAN +115
373		TCU +155
395		UTSA +105

Here's the Visiting Dog ML Fund pending...

309	4-Oct	N MEXICO +220
313	5-Oct	BC +160
325		PITT +175
337		V TECH +415
347		OREGON ST +190
353		TULSA +370
355		IOWA +170
357		ILLINOIS +425
359		RICE +270
361		N'WESTERN +230
375		VANDY +225

These Funds are stacked and if we can be set up like this on those inevitable couple of Saturdays where the dogs bark like crazy, the we'll be doing the dance...

[KVB]

Here's the 2019 Regular Season for the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund with links to every play posted, including the daily and weekly summaries...

Weeks 1-5	-1.32
Weeks 6-10	-1.23
Weeks 11-15	-4.9
Weeks 16-20	6.19
Weeks 21-25	-0.44
Week 26	5.15
Week 27	0.24
Total	3.69

Here's the chart of units in rotation order...



Sure there were about 8 units in errors, and those last 3 units would have this latest trend looking much straighter but it's not bad for 657 ml and Total plays for a whole season.

It's easy to focus on the comeback from -23 units but never forget that it was up nearly 10 units before going down that low. That's a 30 plus unit drop this season.

Here's the Totals and ML breakdown...

29-Sep	Plays	Units
Overall	657	3.69
Totals	191	-6.43
ML's	466	10.12

KVB MLB Contrarian Fund TOTALS performance:
29-Sep	1 Unit
	per bet	Wins	Loss	Push	Cancel	Total
OVER	5.7	36	28	1	1	66
UNDER	-12.13	54	63	5	3	125
Total	-6.43	90	91	6	4	191

Here's the Totals season long chart of units in rotation order...



We had a little up trend there, but thanks to the UNDERs it was rough going...



The OVER bets seemed healthy...



OVERS/UNDERS it's all a blur.

OVERBOOB/UNDERBOOB it's all a blur...

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

321

5-Oct

BALL ST +184

The CRIS family must be getting slammed there and I'll take the +184 while other books offer everything from +165 to +175.

The Ball St. moneyline is now in two different Funds.

I think this GIF has under, over and side boob....

[Ra77er]

What are the odds that the one play being discussed, I am on the other side? The rest of your "baskets" I have no opinion on or I agree with you. You've got balls kvb I'll give you that.

[Tanko]

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

321

5-Oct

BALL ST +184

The CRIS family must be getting slammed there and I'll take the +184 while other books offer everything from +165 to +175.

The Ball St. moneyline is now in two different Funds.

I agree w/ the Ball State pick but I took the points +7 instead of ML.
Alhtough N. Illinois is 3-1 ATS so far, they have been fading in power rankings since week 1. Ball St. is hanging even.
Good Luck

[KVB]

I agree w/ the Ball State pick but I took the points +7 instead of ML.
Alhtough N. Illinois is 3-1 ATS so far, they have been fading in power rankings since week 1. Ball St. is hanging even.
Good Luck

This line moving up, did you buy to +7?

More importantly and even more curiously, why would someone go to the trouble to do this?...



?????????

[Bostongambler]

Hahahaha...wtf

[KVB]

There's a mistake in the final tally with last year's NCAAF UPSET Basket. The mistake is in the closing line comparison.

Here's the relevant part of the final post for last year's fund...

Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket through all 126 plays with links and a crude closing comparison.

Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
		per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
30-Oct	KENT ST -105	0.95	-120	Y	0.15
1-Nov	OHIO +110	1.1	-167	Y	1.77
2-Nov	COLORADO +165	-1	143	Y	0.22
3-Nov	IOWA +115	-1	106	Y	0.09
	W VIRGINIA +115	1.15	-110	Y	0.25
	TEX A&M +158	-1	157	Y	0.01
	LIBERTY +143	-1	-101	Y	0.44
	S CAROLINA -105	0.95	101	N	-0.06
	UTEP +105	1.05	-129	Y	0.34
	FAU +145	1.45	108	Y	0.37

...

While it was a good week versus the closer with a 9-1 record, that Ohio +110 that turned into a -167 beat the closer by .77, not 1.77.

This is enough to drop the avg vs. the closer for the season from 15 cents to 14 cents. I hate to have to do this, but here is the entire 2018 NCAAF UPSET Basket, corrected, and this will be the new official post for it...

2018
	Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
	30-Aug	KENNESAW ST +130	-1	120	Y	0.10
		UC DAVIS +120	1.2	120	PUSH	0.00
179	1-Sep	MARSHALL +120	1.2	-102	Y	0.22
181		SMU +150	-1	143	Y	0.07
183		MTENN ST +130	-1	134	N	-0.04
319	8-Sep	FLOR INT +115	1.15	-154	Y	0.69
321		DUKE +130	1.3	126	Y	0.04
325		ARI +157	-1	150	Y	0.07
335		KANSAS +167	1.67	134	Y	0.33
353		COLORADO +142	1.42	141	Y	0.01
359		IOWA ST +155	-1	145	Y	0.10
363		UMASS +125	-1	107	Y	0.18
375		FRESNO ST +115	-1	-110	Y	0.25
379		CINCI +105	1.05	101	Y	0.04
389		CAL +145	1.45	111	Y	0.34
113	15-Sep	UMASS +165	-1	145	Y	0.20
131		RUTGERS +140	-1	-110	Y	0.50
139		OHIO +135	-1	164	N	-0.29
145		BOISE ST +135	-1	-116	Y	0.51
169		HOUSTON +110	-1	106	Y	0.04
177		E MICH +150	-1	117	Y	0.33
179		OREGON ST +155	-1	158	N	-0.03
183		ARK ST +115	1.15	108	Y	0.07
201		USC +145	-1	135	Y	0.10
207		FRESNO ST -102	0.98	-145	Y	0.43
309	21-Sep	WASH ST +165	-1	168	Y	0.03
319	22-Sep	MINN +135	-1	111	Y	0.24
321		W KENTUCKY +130	1.3	131	N	-0.01
347		LOUISVILLE +150	-1	175	N	-0.25
375		COAST CAR +150	1.5	123	Y	0.27
413		ILLINOIS ST +175	1.75	170	Y	0.05
115	29-Sep	N ILLINOIS +155	1.55	147	Y	0.08
141		S CAR +100	-1	-107	Y	0.07
147		NEVADA +160	1.6	152	Y	0.08
157		W MICH +115	1.15	-139	Y	0.54
207		STANFORD +175	-1	173	Y	0.02
307	5-Oct	M TENN ST +170	1.7	121	Y	0.49
311		UTAH ST +125	1.25	-108	Y	0.33
331	6-Oct	BC +160	-1	198	N	-0.38
335		MISSOURI +110	-1	-110	Y	0.20
343		E MICH +155	-1	167	N	-0.12
347		MIA (OH) +152	1.52	176	N	-0.24
355		ARIZONA ST +120	-1	119	Y	0.01
363		UTAH +167	1.67	160	Y	0.07
369		CAL +105	-1	-106	Y	0.11
403		UTSA +110	1.1	102	Y	0.08
405		KANSAS ST +165	-1	156	Y	0.09
413		WYOMING +152	-1	-172	Y	1.24
119	13-Oct	TOLEDO -105	-1	-129	Y	0.24
123		UL MONROE +170	1.7	230	N	-0.60
127		BALL ST +100	1	115	N	-0.15
129		DUKE -103	0.97	116	N	-0.19
143		M TENN ST +110	-1	105	Y	0.05
149		N MEXICO -103	-1	-127	Y	0.24
161		OHIO +155	-1	187	N	-0.32
179		NEBRASKA +155	-1	148	Y	0.07
313	20-Oct	CINCI +165	-1	114	Y	0.51
327		COAST CAR +152	1.52	115	Y	0.37
339		BUFFALO +110	1.1	120	N	-0.10
355		TULSA +200	-1	243	N	-0.43
367		OREGON +105	-1	142	N	-0.37
379		MINN +155	-1	169	N	-0.14
385		N TEXAS +110	-1	110	PUSH	0.00
401		ODU +167	1.67	157	Y	0.10
409		NEVADA +153	1.53	107	Y	0.46
411		IDAHO ST +190	-1	245	Y	0.55
111	25-Oct	G TECH +155	1.55	137	Y	0.18
121	26-Oct	WYOMING +120	1.2	-163	Y	0.83
131		LA TECH +125	1.25	143	N	-0.18
137	27-Oct	WAKE +105	1.05	127	N	-0.22
141		ARMY +110	1.1	-129	Y	0.39
161		WASH ST +152	1.52	129	Y	0.23
163		ARIZONA ST +160	1.6	127	Y	0.33
169		UNLV +110	-1	111	N	-0.01
171		TULANE +125	1.25	-126	Y	0.51
173		TEX A&M +140	-1	101	Y	0.39
185		IOWA +185	-1	170	Y	0.15
187		PURDUE +110	-1	-137	Y	0.47
193		VANDY -110	0.91	-102	N	-0.08
199		N MEX ST +120	-1	-112	Y	0.32
201		TEXAS TECH +165	-1	198	N	-0.33
303	30-Oct	KENT ST -105	0.95	-120	Y	0.15
309	1-Nov	OHIO +110	1.1	-167	Y	0.77
319	2-Nov	COLORADO +165	-1	143	Y	0.22
323	3-Nov	IOWA +115	-1	106	Y	0.09
351		W VIRGINIA +115	1.15	-110	Y	0.25
389		TEX A&M +158	-1	157	Y	0.01
397		LIBERTY +143	-1	-101	Y	0.44
407		S CAROLINA -105	0.95	101	N	-0.06
409		UTEP +105	1.05	-129	Y	0.34
417		FAU +145	1.45	108	Y	0.37
105	7-Nov	TOLEDO +140	-1	144	N	-0.04
115	10-Nov	TEMPLE +160	1.6	140	Y	0.20
119		V TECH +115	-1	159	N	-0.44
131		TROY -105	0.95	-125	Y	0.20
139		MIAMI +170	-1	-106	Y	0.76
145		MARYLAND +145	-1	101	Y	0.44
161		OREGON +155	-1	205	N	0.50
195		CAL +170	1.7	163	Y	0.07
197		TEXAS -115	0.87	-125	Y	0.10
303	14-Nov	BUFFALO +115	-1	116	N	-0.01
313	15-Nov	FAU +120	-1	160	N	-0.40
325	17-Nov	WISCONSIN +170	1.7	145	Y	0.25
329		N'WESTERN +100	1	122	N	-0.22
361		AIR FORCE +130	-1	132	N	-0.02
375		ARIZONA ST +155	-1	131	Y	0.24
381		TCU +110	1.1	-110	Y	0.20
391		LA TECH -115	-1	108	N	-0.23
397		MISSISSIPPI +130	-1	133	N	0.03
399		BC -105	-1	-139	Y	0.34
415		MICHIGAN ST -103	-1	-110	Y	0.07
417		IOWA ST +135	-1	105	Y	0.30
129	23-Nov	COAST CAR -105	-1	-115	Y	0.1
141		OKLAHOMA -105	0.95	-151	Y	0.46
143		WASHINGTON +140	1.4	140	PUSH	0
145	24-Nov	PITT +170	-1	184	N	-0.14
157		MARSHALL +105	1.05	-171	Y	0.76
181		UTAH ST +135	-1	123	Y	0.12
195		TENN +150	-1	133	Y	0.17
209		LSU +115	-1	132	N	-0.17
215		UL LAFAYETTE +155	1.55	106	Y	0.49
307	1-Dec	UAB +120	1.2	-104	Y	0.24
309		MEMPHIS +175	-1	101	Y	0.74
317		FRESNO ST +120	1.2	108	Y	0.12
329		MARSHALL +160	-1	161	N	-0.01
335		SOUTHERN -110	-1	175	N	-0.85
		Total	2.5		88-35-3	0.14

Sorry about this post, here's some underboob to make up for it...

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

391

5-Oct

MICHIGAN ST +20 (-111)

There is nothing wrong with the low vig +19.5 (-105) either, the Fund has both.

Here are the other pending plays in this Fund...

337		5-Oct	V TECH +13.5 (-105)
349			CAL +18 (-105)
355			IOWA +4 (-105)
359			RICE +8.5 (-105)
361			N'WESTERN +7 (-110)
373			TCU +4 (-105)

Never let it go unnoticed...

[Tanko]

This line moving up, did you buy to +7?

More importantly and even more curiously, why would someone go to the trouble to do this?...



?????????

I got Ball St at +7 at open (bought it down - local). Maybe not a great buy but I like +7, just because. Some say I'm crazy and do S#!T like...

[KVB]

The UPSET Basket has those smaller moneylines and when it comes to comparing the plays to the closing line just a few outliers can affect the charts.

This may be a multi post venture here but let's just start with last year's running average vs. the closing line. By season's end the UPSET Basket was beating the closing line with a 88-35-3 record and by an average of 14 cents. That's where the chart ends up...



To give you an idea of the volatility here, notice the last play in the UPSET Basket last year, posted above, that has Southern -110 closing at +175.

Look at the chart when that last play is removed, which also bumps the 2018 season avg up to .15 cents...



It might seem subtle, but maybe not so subtle, either way what a difference a penny can make.

So what's the point? Let's do this with our 2019 outlers and then look at the two seasons together.

But first...

BOOTY BUMPS!!!!

[KVB]

So let's move on to 2019.

Here's the entire 2019 NCAAF UPSET Basket with the current pending plays included...

2109
	Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
133	29-Aug	UCLA +140	-1	116	Y	0.25
137		FL INT +135	-1	128	Y	0.07
147	30-Aug	UTAH ST +150	-1	174	N	-0.24
175	31-Aug	MISSISSIPPI +145	-1	139	Y	0.06
193		SMU +140	1.4	105	Y	0.35
281		ILLINOIS ST +155	-1	220	N	-0.65
305	7-Sep	OHIO +160	-1	161	N	-0.01
317		SYRACUSE +115	-1	102	Y	0.13
343		ARKANSAS ST +115	1.15	-106	Y	0.21
355		N TEXAS +160	-1	152	Y	0.08
357		BYU +145	1.45	134	Y	0.11
385		STANFORD +135	-1	146	N	-0.11
401		KENNESAW ST -110	-1	165	N	-0.75
409		S ILLINOIS +145	1.45	190	N	-0.45
103	13-Sep	NC +150	-1	132	Y	0.18
125	14-Sep	AIR FORCE +155	1.55	130	Y	0.25
133		AKRON +140	-1	119	Y	0.21
153		IOWA -125	0.8	-123	N	-0.02
167		S MISS +130	1.3	130	PUSH	0.00
185		TCU +105	1.05	-155	Y	0.60
303	19-Sep	HOUSTON +155	-1	162	N	-0.07
321	21-Sep	UL LAFAYETTE +145	1.45	132	Y	0.13
343		MICHIGAN +150	-1	145	Y	0.05
347		N MEX ST +167	-1	159	Y	0.08
353		CAL -103	0.97	126	Y	0.29
357		GEORGIA ST +120	-1	119	Y	0.01
365		APP ST +140	1.4	109	Y	0.31
367		AUBURN +160	1.6	156	Y	0.04
369		WYOMING +135	-1	188	N	-0.53
105	27-Sep	DUKE +115	1.15	124	N	-0.09
123	28-Sep	BUFFALO +115	-1	-124	Y	0.39
137		MINNESOTA -110	0.91	108	N	-0.18
149		HAWAII +115	1.15	111	N	-0.04
157		KENTUCKY +110	-1	148	N	-0.38
165		K STATE +160	-1	165	N	-0.05
171		FAU -103	0.97	-126	Y	0.23
179		E CAROLNA -102	0.98	136	N	-0.38
197		HOUSTON +115	1.15	256	N	-1.41
321	5-Oct	BALL ST +160
327		BAYLOR +110
343		ARIZONA +135
367		W MICHIGAN +115
373		TCU +155
395		UTSA +105
		Total	1.88		21-16-1	-0.035

I want to note 4 particular plays and then see what happens when they are removed from the Fund.

Three were early season added games...

1) Aug 31st...Ill St +155 , closed at +220 (LOST)
2) Sep 7th, Kenn St -110, closed at +165 (LOST)
3) Sep 7th, S Ill +145, closed at +190 (WON)

These plays really didn't belong in the Fund, were the ones I discussed buying back. The fourth play is the last one on the list and was an injury issue...

4) Oct 5th, Hou +115, closed at +256 (WON)

Of course all these plays will remain in the tracking summaries, but I want to examine the situation with and without these plays.




First, with all plays counted in, as it will be, here is the 2019 running avg against the close. While the Fund is positive units, and has a record of 21-16-1 against the close, the average vs. the close is negative...



Even without the sudden drop off at the end, which was the Houston injury, there is still a decline over the previous 8 plays or so, where the Fund went 2-6 against the close.

Let's remove the 4 plays and you can see the average go positive but still last week's downward slope...



The point here is again how different things can look with just a few outliers. As we get more plays into the chart, we can start to look at moving averages and other charting metrics that would apply to these "market functions" like the UPSET Basket.

So to begin adding more plays let's start the chart with last year, and see what we get.

[KVB]

Let's jump right in with the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket since it has been posted at SBR and it's running average vs. the closing line...



Look at the average get brought down this year, seems alarming but remember how the number of plays can make it deceiving.

It's still notable as it approaches a 4 cent drop quickly but seems short term given record of 21-16-1 this year against the closer and the positive units we've seen.

Just look at the same time frame but this time with the units tracked....



It sure looks like we tested a level unit wise and BAM, look at how the units bounced to +4.38 units, +1.88 of those from 2019.

That's nice, but understand that I'd always rather be beating the closing line than winning money when it comes to hundreds of plays. That said, over the shorter term, a lot of weird things can happen.





So let's take the 2018-Present Running average vs. Close and remove those 4 plays from the post above, along with that final Southern play from 2018, the one that tanked the 2018 running average chart. Pulling those plays actually increases the units by +.4 units to 4.78 instead of 4.38 but look what it did to the chart...



If you scroll back up and compare charts, one breaks under 10 cents fast while one is still over 12 cents. So perhaps things aren't as bad as they seem.

As this season matures, this downward slope in the running average vs. the closing line needs to be monitored. Because of the short term variance an interesting discussion would be whether or not we can benefit by laying moving averages over these charts.

Can they tell us anything that we can't already see? I think they can and that longer term trends, the idea of increasing and decreasing the investments and riding out the variance over time or an excellent way to approach the market, or at least these market functions.

I want to leave you with FOUR things.

First, the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket since 2005...



Second, one last bump...



And then finally these two things to wipe your face on...

[dlowilly]

Peaches!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

This line moving up, did you buy to +7?

More importantly and even more curiously, why would someone go to the trouble to do this?...



?????????

Why wouldn’t he?

[KVB]

Why wouldn’t he?

Well, I suppose you're right.

What else are you going to do when going through the trouble to do this just isn't fun anymore?...

[KVB]

I also suppose it's a natural progression to get to a couple of buddies and their cars if you go from doing it by yourself in the yard, to getting a buddy to help, then on up...

[Ra77er]

KVB what do you use for closing number? Are you taking an average across multiple books?

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

913 TB +117

On mobile, will check in later.

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

915 STL +131

On mobile still, will check in when I can.

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

924 MIN/NYY UNDER 9 (-110)

Hit the last two moneylines, but now it's an UNDER bet.

Still on mobile here, have been real busy last few days.

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

341		5-Oct	LIBERTY/N MEX ST OVER 62.5 (-105)
367			W MICH/TOLEDO OVER 72.5 (-105)
385			AUBURN/FLORIDA OVER 48.5 (-109)

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

308		4-Oct	CINCI +4 (-108)
332		5-Oct	T TECH +10 (-109)
333			KENT ST +35 (-107)
354			SMU -12.5 (-105)
362			NEBRASKA -7 (-115)
366			NAVY +3.5 (-110)
382			GA ST +6.5 (-101)

We benefit from shopping around here, there can be a half point gained off of both Nebraska and SMU, the market a still has the 7 and 12.5 instead of 7.5 and 13.

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

325

5-Oct

PITT +5 (-107)

Here are the other pending plays in that Fund...

337		5-Oct	V TECH +13.5 (-105)
349			CAL +18 (-105)
355			IOWA +4 (-105)
359			RICE +8.5 (-105)
361			N'WESTERN +7 (-110)
373			TCU +4 (-105)
391			MICHIGAN ST +20 (-111)

[Bostongambler]

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

308		4-Oct	CINCI +4 (-108)
332		5-Oct	T TECH +10 (-109)
333			KENT ST +35 (-107)
354			SMU -12.5 (-105)
362			NEBRASKA -7 (-115)
366			NAVY +3.5 (-110)
382			GA ST +6.5 (-101)

We benefit from shopping around here, there can be a half point gained off of both Nebraska and SMU, the market a still has the 7 and 12.5 instead of 7.5 and 13.

The old Two tater side step dance. Lovely 💃

[DiggityDaggityDo]

What's Bill peaking at there?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Left, Right or Middle?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Is Fit Tea any good?




It looks good.

[Bostongambler]

What's Bill peaking at there?

Bills nipples are erect 🤦*♂️

[Bostongambler]

Left, Right or Middle?

Left

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Bills nipples are erect 臘*♂️

Wow... Good eye!