[Hman]

Best bets for Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs


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Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (51-1-2, 35 KOs), the WBC and WBA middleweight champion, and Daniel "Miracle Man" Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs), the IBF middleweight champion, clash Saturday night in a title unification bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (DAZN, 9 p.m. ET).


Here's a look at where the money is going from Vegas bookmakers, along with opinions from boxing experts, boxers, boxing TV personalities, trainers and my prediction for the fight.

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Where is the money going?

At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Jeff Sherman, VP of risk management, opened the fight with Canelo -300 and Jacobs +240.


"Currently, 60 percent of tickets written are on Canelo, but 56 percent of the money wagered is on Jacobs," Sherman said. "We just took $10,000 on Jacobs +375, so we lowered the number to -450/+350."



Alvarez-Jacobs Odds

FIGHTERS	OPENING ODDS	ODDS AS OF MAY 1
Alvarez	-300	-450
Jacobs	+240	+350
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Sherman opened the total round prop at 10.5 rounds over -200 and under +180 and has had limited action on this so far. He is expecting a very solid handle for this fight and also is offering the following prop bets:

Jacobs by KO: 9/1

Jacobs by decision: 13/2

Canelo by KO: 9/4

Canelo by decision: 5/7

Draw: 20/1


At William Hill U.S., assistant director of trading Adam Pullen opened the fight with Canelo -270 and Jacobs +230. "We have had overwhelming support for Alvarez with a 16-1 ratio of money wagered on him and are now up to -475/+380," Pullen said.


Pullen opened the total rounds prop at 10.5 over -215 and under +185 and it remains the same with little action. Pullen, too, is expecting a great handle on this fight.

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Experts weigh in

• Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): Jacobs will start out by trying to fight from the outside and using his jab to establish some offense while holding and smothering Canelo in order to diffuse his offense and frustrate him. In the middle to late rounds, it will be Canelo using his counter punching ability to land successfully giving him a slight lead on the cards and ultimately a majority decision victory.
  
  

• Joey Oddessa (MMA & boxing oddsmaker): How many times have you seen scenarios like this play out in the past? A guy looks like a live underdog based primarily on a really solid performance in a losing effort against a great fighter. Jacobs in a losing effort to GGG, in this case. It's a selling point on the preview shows that makes this matchup appealing. Unfortunately for the hopefuls and 'dog backers, Jacobs will not beat Canelo on any day of 2019 and particularly not on Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas, Nevada. And, if there's any doubt in your mind going in, rest assured [judges] Dave Moretti and Steve Weisfeld will put a stamp on it if it goes the distance. Canelo exits T-Mobile Arena 52-1-2 Saturday night.
  
  

• Jamel "Semper Fi" Herring (USBA featherweight champion): My heart wants to go with Jacobs, but you can't deny the skill set of Canelo. I believe Jacobs has a decent shot of upsetting Canelo based off the size and strength, but like we witnessed in Canelo's last outing, the size didn't really mean much for him. Yes, Jacobs is a whole different animal, but you can't bank off of size to get the job done. He's going to have to bring the complete package to get the victory. Canelo, on the other hand, has tremendous defense and speed on his end, with intelligent ring IQ. Overall I'm going to say this one will be close to call, but see Canelo leaving with a close UD.
  
  

• Luke Chapman (boxing sharp): I'm not convinced that Jacobs can do anywhere near enough to beat the prime Canelo that we're seeing here. Look for Canelo to work under Jacobs' ineffective jab with body work. Canelo stops him late. I'm backing Canelo by KO/TKO +275.
  
  

• John "Iceman" Scully (boxing trainer): I feel like it's going to be a very close and competitive fight and Danny will give him one of or the toughest fight of his career. And the decision will be unpopular in many people's eyes in favor of Canelo.
  
  

• Rich Marotta (Hall of Fame sportscaster): I think this may be a bit of a trap fight for Canelo. GGG behind him and maybe in front of him again in the future. Common sense dictates he wins, but Jacobs is no joke. I look for a very close fight, Jacobs' skill offsetting the relentless pressure of Alvarez. I think it will be much like the GGG-Jacobs fight. Somewhere along the line, Canelo lands a big one, scores a knockdown and squeezes out a tight decision.
  
  

• Cynthia Conte (Ring TV boxing correspondent): Middleweight supremacy at its finest. Canelo is one of the top pound-for-pound greats. He's the aggressor, explosive, skilled, and one of the best counter punchers in the game that throws vicious body punches. Jacobs can fight and can box. He is the bigger man, and stylistically, is a difficult opponent. If Jacobs can just work behind the jab, stick and move with his impeccable footwork, utilize his speed, power, throw some nasty counters and combinations to keep Canelo guessing, he can very well pull off the upset. And you know I love a good underdog win! The first couple of rounds are very crucial to set the pace of the fight. I believe this will go all 12 rounds. Canelo by a very close decision.
  
  
  Face to face
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• Canelo: The 28-year-old fighting out of Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, is ranked third on ESPN's pound for pound fighters in the world. His career-defining win came last September when he beat boxing icon and rival Gennady Golovkin by scorecards of 115-113, 114-114 and 115-113. The decision was not popular with many of the boxing media or fans but it's worth noting these same judges (Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman and Steve Weisfeld) are assigned to this fight.
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  Coming off a short trip to the 168-pound division last December where he annihilated Rocky Fielding by third-round TKO, Canelo moves back down to the 160-pound middleweight division and puts his WBA and WBC titles on the line. Canelo has amassed 54 fights and as mentioned he is only 28 years old. You would be hard pressed to find something Canelo doesn't do well in the ring and he brings a solid beard as evident to standing up to Golovkin for 24 rounds.
  
  
  Jacobs: The 32-year-old fighting out of Brooklyn, New York, goes by the moniker of "Miracle Man" and he certainly is as Jacobs' career was almost cut short in 2011 due to osteosarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer. He went on to make a full recovery after spending 19 months out of the sport. He will enter the ring with two losses, one in 2010 to Dimtry Pirog by shocking KO in Round 5, then by a close decision to Golovkin in March 2017 by scores of 114-113 and 115-112 twice. He has rebounded with three straight wins over Luis Arias, Maciej Sulecki and last October over Sergiy Derevyanchenko via split decision in a fight he was the -190 favorite.
  
  
  Jacobs is a very talented fighter with great hand speed and power as evident by his 78 percent KO average. Less the shocking KO to Pirog and a flash knockdown by Golovkin in Round 4 of their fight, he's shown to have a great chin. Jacobs is up against versus Canelo as he's not only fighting a top-notch pugilist, he also will be dealing with Canelo being the benefactor of judges scoring.
  

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  Betting the fight
  
  The panel is backing Canelo by a 12-1 margin. I can't disagree and even though it will be a close fight, going against Canelo in Las Vegas is not a wise move. He tends to get the benefit of every close round from the judges.
  
  
  Pick: Canelo -450 or better and by decision -140 or better.

[jacharron17]

Jacobs is a very good fighter; quick, explosive, rangy, skilled. But what he lacks is that outright power at the highest level and fairly often he fights emotionally or is hell bent on survival.

He is also fighting Canelo in Vegas, on Mexican weekend, at the T-Mobile… and we all know what that means… he’s about 2–3 rounds down before he sets foot in the ring.

He wont be able to hurt Canelo, or KO him - which is the case for any other MW, so if you cant force Canelo back then Canelo will always win on points as his style is very favourable to the judges.

I would predict a UD win for Canelo, with Jacobs probably thinking he did enough to win and Canelo moving on to an easier opponent in September.

[jtoler]

jacobs good but gets hit a little too often when he doesnt need to he'll need to ko canelo to win prob which prob more than likely wont happen

[Grits n' Gravy]

Jacobs has no shot unless he is able to force Canelo backwards with his jab and size advantage.

[jtoler]

end of round 2 Im giving jacobs a solid chance to win now didnt expect him to be using his feet as much and keeping distance, fighting smart, canelo already looking a little gassed

[Thor4140]

i never heard such bias commentating in all my life. I wouldn't be surprised if this one announcer doesn't jump in the ring and blow Canelo after the fight. He is making this fight sound like Jacobs is some bum when he is doing very well.

[jtoler]

jacobs wont get a decision he'd need a ko turned southpaw a lot dont think he needed to do that

[Thor4140]

he just said Canelo won every round The other two guys say it is close or could be close

[keely85]

Canelo looked like shit tonight

[jtoler]

on 2nd thought jacobs was doing ok southpaw and might have gotten hit more conventional. wasnt scoring so have no idea who should really win but prob canelo

[keely85]

Jacobs boxed very well. ggg is sitting there like. Fukk this broke dikk

[jjgold]

boxing so dead

[SBR Lou]

Watching the fight with Spanish commentary, I didn't hear (or appreciate) the Alvarez bias some of you touched on. It can change the way you score or perceive a fight if you let it distract you. I was surprised at the decision. I had it 6-6 but could see Jacobs also getting the decision. Canelo was frustrated by him and I think Jacobs boxed better, even landed the only noteworthy punch of the fight with that sublime left hook in the later rounds.

[Thor4140]

on 2nd thought jacobs was doing ok southpaw and might have gotten hit more conventional. wasnt scoring so have no idea who should really win but prob canelo

i thought he also did well Southpaw. It was a good solid fight. Problem is that anything close goes to Canelo. I thought he lost both fights to Triple G. These theives don't care who wins or loses it is the guy that can bring in the most money for them all to split. This announcer was a joke and than he interviews Delayhoya and to my surprise Dela Hoya said he thought Canelo won by two points and this fan boy for Canelo wanted to argue with Delahoya LMFAO. I have to give props to Oscsr for calling it straight. I figured he instructed this bias announcer to say everythng good about Canelo to brainwash people. He tried to convince Mora how wrong he was about ten times and Mora just smirked like he was thinking "what is this fuk watching". I did see Canelo cross paths with this announcer and the announcer put on this huge smile. I thought he was going to blow Canelo right there.

[The Kraken]

Watching the fight with Spanish commentary, I didn't hear (or appreciate) the Alvarez bias some of you touched on. It can change the way you score or perceive a fight if you let it distract you. I was surprised at the decision. I had it 6-6 but could see Jacobs also getting the decision. Canelo was frustrated by him and I think Jacobs boxed better, even landed the only noteworthy punch of the fight with that sublime left hook in the later rounds.

Nice to see you around, hopefully you can check in more!

What happened, you used to be a regular, why the big breaks between posts? You always have good insight

[The Kraken]

Watching the fight with Spanish commentary, I didn't hear (or appreciate) the Alvarez bias some of you touched on. It can change the way you score or perceive a fight if you let it distract you. I was surprised at the decision. I had it 6-6 but could see Jacobs also getting the decision. Canelo was frustrated by him and I think Jacobs boxed better, even landed the only noteworthy punch of the fight with that sublime left hook in the later rounds.

Where does boxing get its money to pay the big time boxers exorbitant amounts? Cant imagine they’re selling many ppv’s or getting good ratings on any network. Dazn? Maybe Im wrong about the ratings

[Grits n' Gravy]

Not sure how anyone with working eyes thought Jacobs boxed better southpaw. Terrible strategy as His jab became a sissy slap. Canelo showed great defensive technique all night and hurt Jacobs with body shots. Not a big Canelo fan but he is improving every fight. We Sat less than 20 feet from ring and had Canelo winning 8 to 9 rounds.

Jacobs is a fine fighter and great story but Canelo is best middleweight right now. Ggg didn’t do enough in 2nd fight to get decision and by the time they fight a 3rd time he will be older and slower.

[Grits n' Gravy]

boxing so dead

Like your hair follicles. For a dead sport you seem to chime in on every single boxing thread.

Where does boxing get its money to pay the big time boxers exorbitant amounts? Cant imagine they’re selling many ppv’s or getting good ratings on any network. Dazn? Maybe Im wrong about the ratings

Corporate sponsors and broadcast rights.

[Thor4140]

Not sure how anyone with working eyes thought Jacobs boxed better southpaw. Terrible strategy as His jab became a sissy slap. Canelo showed great defensive technique all night and hurt Jacobs with body shots. Not a big Canelo fan but he is improving every fight. We Sat less than 20 feet from ring and had Canelo winning 8 to 9 rounds.

Jacobs is a fine fighter and great story but Canelo is best middleweight right now. Ggg didn’t do enough in 2nd fight to get decision and by the time they fight a 3rd time he will be older and slower.

Grits i didn’t think he box better southpaw i just thought he did fine with the switch. I thought he hit Canelo more in the lefty position but he also got hit a lot more in the Southpaw position. I thought he was more effective in the orthodox position tho. I just think he held his own when switching. Not sure how you can think he won 9 rounds tho.

[Thor4140]

Watching the fight with Spanish commentary, I didn't hear (or appreciate) the Alvarez bias some of you touched on. It can change the way you score or perceive a fight if you let it distract you. I was surprised at the decision. I had it 6-6 but could see Jacobs also getting the decision. Canelo was frustrated by him and I think Jacobs boxed better, even landed the only noteworthy punch of the fight with that sublime left hook in the later rounds.

I got to the point i had to turn the volume down. Two of the guys were calling it straight but the one was horrific with his bias.

[kingdom]

Not sure how anyone with working eyes thought Jacobs boxed better southpaw. Terrible strategy as His jab became a sissy slap. Canelo showed great defensive technique all night and hurt Jacobs with body shots. Not a big Canelo fan but he is improving every fight. We Sat less than 20 feet from ring and had Canelo winning 8 to 9 rounds.

Jacobs is a fine fighter and great story but Canelo is best middleweight right now. Ggg didn’t do enough in 2nd fight to get decision and by the time they fight a 3rd time he will be older and slower.

Canelo is the best fighter in boxing. he fights everyone who comes his way. usually beats them. and has an electricity with his fights others can't muster. all the talk about the other p4p guys. canelo is the big dog in boxing right now. ggg interview was hilarious post fight. hate, hate, hate lol.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Grits i didn’t think he box better southpaw i just thought he did fine with the switch. I thought he hit Canelo more in the lefty position but he also got hit a lot more in the Southpaw position. I thought he was more effective in the orthodox position tho. I just think he held his own when switching. Not sure how you can think he won 9 rounds tho.

I’m Not going to award Jacobs rounds for throwing a lot of half ass jabs he had no intention of landing. To me Canelo’s defense was superb and he landed the harder shots. Jacobs’s kidneys took a beating.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Canelo is the best fighter in boxing. he fights everyone who comes his way. usually beats them. and has an electricity with his fights others can't muster. all the talk about the other p4p guys. canelo is the big dog in boxing right now. ggg interview was hilarious post fight. hate, hate, hate lol.

i think he is the best 160. I don’t see ggg, Charlo, Andrade or the other Russian giving him trouble. At 168 a Ramirez fight could be good. I could see ward coming out of retirement for a Canelo pay day in late 20, early 21.

p4p I like Crawford and Lomachenko but it is all subjective. I think compared to everybody else these 2 just have Superior skills, crazy work ethic and the desire to destroy their opponents. My dad is a boxing nut and said bud reminds him of guys like hagler, Leonard and Pryor.

[JayLA]

Not sure how anyone with working eyes thought Jacobs boxed better southpaw. Terrible strategy as His jab became a sissy slap. Canelo showed great defensive technique all night and hurt Jacobs with body shots. Not a big Canelo fan but he is improving every fight. We Sat less than 20 feet from ring and had Canelo winning 8 to 9 rounds.

Jacobs is a fine fighter and great story but Canelo is best middleweight right now. Ggg didn’t do enough in 2nd fight to get decision and by the time they fight a 3rd time he will be older and slower.

why aren't you a canelo fan grits? you and I have always seen eye to eye in boxing, from what i've read over the years

[jtoler]

Canelo is the best fighter in boxing. he fights everyone who comes his way. usually beats them. and has an electricity with his fights others can't muster. all the talk about the other p4p guys. canelo is the big dog in boxing right now. ggg interview was hilarious post fight. hate, hate, hate lol.

floyd isnt retired is he? floyd shut canelo down and showed one way to easily beat him but nobody really can do what floyd does. blistering speed and precision countering from floyd in that fight canelo could do nothing

[Grits n' Gravy]

why aren't you a canelo fan grits? you and I have always seen eye to eye in boxing, from what i've read over the years

I was never really sold on him. Not sure why. Just thought he was more hype than skill. He learned a lot from the Floyd fight and has become a complete boxer since.

floyd isnt retired is he? floyd shut canelo down and showed one way to easily beat him but nobody really can do what floyd does. blistering speed and precision countering from floyd in that fight canelo could do nothing

Smart for Canelo to have fought Floyd when he did. He can say he was too young and inexperienced to really test Floyd. Not a bad L on resume. I expect Oscar to call out Floyd as not being able to beat Canelo again in 2021 or 2022.

Btw, Oscar’s face looks like Wayne Newton now. Way too much plastic surgery and makeup Sat night.