[Richard Clock]

Posted this live bet on the event thread, but wanted to add ticket for further confirmation.

This bet was placed after R3 after Joanna appeared to win R3. My thought process was that it was likely that Rose had won the first 2 rounds, so to get Rose at plus money with 2 rounds left was gravy. The idea that Joanna had "momentum" coming into R4, which I consider to mostly be noise, likely influenced this line.

Will share my thoughts on this bet and my other bets sometimes this week, but for now, I am very happy to have finished the night comfortably profitable.

[Richard Clock]

Including the Rose, live bet, my profit for UFC 223 was a very slightly over 2 units (~$100). Another unspectacular, but still solidly profitable night for me. Some of my thoughts:

- Even though my betting volume was low, I put a lot of research and care into this card, and I think that extra focus really paid off. It just so happens that the closing lines for a handful of these fights were such that I shied away from some action, but I do expect this to change from card to card. Probably smartly, I stayed away from any questionable props that could have cut into my profit for the card. My leans for the fights were Rose, Iaquinta, Gritz, Rodriguez and Moicano. I am a little frustrated for not pulling the trigger on the early lines for Rose and Moicano, as I felt most strongly in them. While I don't normally live bet, I do think my process in betting on Rose was solid, and perhaps I need to incorporate more live betting into my portfolio. Moicano/Kattar was a fight that particularly intrigued me, and one I put a lot of work into, so it felt reassuring that my lean on Moicano, and therefore my handicapping of the matchup, was solid. Even though my lean on Rodriguez vs Clark was not exactly on point, I do think a potential bet on Rod by decision +540 or ML at plus odds might have had some value. Happy I ultimately showed discipline and stayed away, though (progress). Even though my profitability wasn't massive, my confidence in my research process and in my ability to identify value in these lines are growing stronger.

- AES by KO/TKO at +715 was a fine bet, not one I feel great about and not one I feel poorly about. I am very happy I bet this line when it was at its highest historically. AES caught Bec with some decent shots but ultimately didn't have enough power to really hurt her. I wish AES would have worked more in the clinch with knees (maybe her strongest technique) and tried for some takedowns and GnP, but perhaps that would have played into Bec's strengths a little bit more and given her a fighter's chance. My ultimate conclusion that AES would win soundly was accurate, but perhaps I got a little too cute and should have stuck with the ML. Ultimately, I wasn't quite confident enough in AES' abilities to feel comfortable laying that much juice on her, so I thought this prop was a decent opportunity to get some money on AES with a better return and also as an opportunity to fade a fighter who I identified as excellent fade material based on my research.

One of the aspects of my evaluation process for fighters that I think has improved my MMA handicapping recently is the concept of projecting a fighter's improvements and decline in ability. Many handicappers rely a little too much on previous performances in projecting the outcome of a future matchup. In the case of Aubin Mercier and AES and other young fighters, sometimes a bit of a leap of faith has to be taken in order to feel confident enough to place action on them, even though their previous performances may not warrant confidence in their chances of winning. In the case of OAM and AES, it is their past performances against a higher level of competition (not necessarily whether they won or loss, but their competitiveness) that warrants this confidence in their future abilities. However, I think a very important factor in these fighters' development and projection of their fight to fight improvement is their athletic upside. Both OAM and AES are clearly athletically gifted and with martial arts backgrounds, so their capacity to improve greatly from fight to fight is more evident than a less physically gifted fighter. In the case of Bec, while she is as young as AES, she clearly is not the naturally gifted athlete AES is and hasn't shown improvement in the UFC from fight to fight to justify me having any faith in her in future fights. OAM/Dunham was an opportunity to bet on that leap in ability for the younger and gifted OAM, and also as an opportunity in fading a 36 year old Dunham who has shown signs of decline in his recent fights, regardless of the fact that his recent success suggests otherwise (Lauzon also).

[Richard Clock]

Still working through this card, wishing I had more time to research, but this bet I really like. Bhullar is deservedly receiving some hype due to wrestling pedigree and his solid performance by Henrique, but I think the betting public may be underrating Wiec as a prospect, especially as a grappler, based on his more forgettable showing vs Hamilton. Keep in mind that Wiec is only 26 years old with only 10 fights himself, has had a generally successful MMA career (only loss was to UFC-level Tybura in 2011), and an impressive 5 submission wins in 10 career fights. I thought Wiec showed well as a defensive grappler in the clinch and off his back vs the BJJ brown belt Hamilton. Wiec had issues with his cardio in the later rounds that limited his ability to mount any of his own offense, but I tend to think that was less a product of Wiec having awful cardio, and more so how grueling that 1st round was, the fight being postponed a month that may have messed up his training timeframe, and traveling to Australia for this fight. I also give Wiec the benefit of the doubt because his cardio looked fine vs Cisse in a grappling intensive match in May 2016, and that his overall success in MMA suggests that cardio has not been a huge issue for him in the past. The betting public may be a victim of a 1 fight sample size bias here. I think Bhullar will work early to initiate a clinch, and should have success entering into grappling range without getting genuinely punished by Wiec, but there is some potential, due to Wiec's generally resourcefulness, clear skills as a grappler and in scrambles, and his longer limbs, that Wiec can find his way into top position, whether it be during a botched TDA by Bhullar, a sweep off Wiec's back, or a submission attempt/reversal. Although this is less likely, I do think Wiec catching Bhullar with something as he enters into range is a possibility that would lend itself well to my submission prop bet.

[HurlSweatPants]

BOL my dude, feeling really good about this card.

[Richard Clock]

Adding on this bet after the late line movement. Had some second thoughts on whether this is a bit of a trap/square play, but I am going to trust in my judgement and research process. The late line movement closer to evens certainly helps, as I capped this fight as about a 60/40 for Lopez (and even that might be a little conservative). To put this one simply, I believe that the optics (more overall/recent MMA success, longer reach, southpaw, lower combat age, higher Quality Perf %, tougher strength of recent competition) and tape watch (Lopez has shown more well-roundedness, strength and skill as a grappler/scrambler, accuracy/diversity of striking, and improvement from fight to fight) generally favor Lopez.

[Richard Clock]

BOL my dude, feeling really good about this card.

Thanks man, almost too many fights on this card! Trying to work through the fox prelims and main card fights, but happy with the 2 bets I have made thus far...BOL

[Richard Clock]

To add onto my analysis of Perez above, I am concerned with Perez's lack of development as a fighter compared to Lopez Even in the most recent fights I have seen of Perez, he has shown the same predictable footwork, lack of head movement, and lack of diversity in striking that he did in earlier fights. This is born out in his weaker 57.7% Quality Perf Percentage and the very close recent decisions that could have not gone his way. Also, unlike Perez, he doesn't possess the well rounded tools to win fights consistently by different pathways the way Lopez can (in scrambles, as a striker/wrestler).

[Richard Clock]

Put down less than 1 unit on Waterson after this surprising line movement. To be honest, the optics generally favor Casey in terms of Quality Performance % (this surprised me considering that Casey is 7-5 overall, but Waterson is at a concerning 40% QP%), Casey being a little less "shop worn" with only 12 career fights and a little more room for improvement, and Casey having a longer reach. However, I don't think Casey presents such a massive advantage in terms of overall talent or stylistically that leads me to believe that Casey should be this significantly favorite. Watersom's stock is a tad deflated after losing to 2 elite SWs. Waterson has shown a little more versatility as a grappler as well as striker. Not hugely confident in this one, as I wish I had more time to break down the remaining fights, but the line movement gave me a decent excuse to put a little money down for the main card.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice win!

[Richard Clock]

Nice win!

So unbelievably tilting, but I will take it!

[Richard Clock]

Added these bets on. I think there is a chance Condit's chin and time as a high level fighter is likely done, and Oliveira is the type of assassin/head hunter that can test Condit's mettle

[Richard Clock]

Also added on Vittori ML live after R1 at +325. Ended up being a split decision, but probably should have laid off. Thought there was a CHANCE they gave Vittori R1, and turns out one judge did. Oliveira by KO/TKO was a fine bet, could have easily been finished with GnP by due to that cut. Stakes were lower on these bets, so not the end of the world. Still up 4+ units with the potential for more (or less).

My justification for Pelicans +5 is as follows. I think this series is pretty close to a tossup: For one, the Pelicans have the best player in the series. Especially without Moe Harkless, I think the Blazers will have trouble getting the help they need at the wing (Aminu's shooting is inconsistent, Turner is a borderline liability offensively, Pat Connaughton is Pat Connaughton). I think the Pelicans have enough versatility, enough shooting, and enough depth at the wing where they can make this series competitive. I simply don't trust a lot of the Blazers role players (Napier, Turner, Aminu, Collins are shaky) Oh, did I mention that Anthony Davis is pretty good?

[Richard Clock]

Added on Gaethje by sub at +1500 - Risking 10...for shits and giggles

[Richard Clock]

[Richard Clock]

Blown away that Gaethje was at plus odds after R1...Poirier's leg already seems beat up

[Richard Clock]

Kind of a brutal end to the card...was more than 5 units up after the Waterson win, and then blew almost half of it on some smaller bets on the main card on some long shot props/live bets. The Gaethje bet in particular was a brutal loss. Still think there was value in Gaethje at plus odds after R1. Blown away that Poirier's leg held up.

Probably should have called it a night after the Waterson win, which I was admittedly fortunate to cash. Still, it was a lot of fun to watch the fights with some lower stake action on the line. Finished with a nice profit on the day, and believe that most of the bets (even the loses) were decent to very good value.

[Richard Clock]

Adding another NBA playoff bet. Line opened at +3 1/2. I think Thunder PROBABLY wins the series because of the home court/slightly better offensive starpower, but it is a true toss up. The injuries to Roberson and Abrines limit Thunder's versatility at the wing. Jazz are finally healthy and are generally undervalued by the public due to their lack of "starpower" (in fact, Gobert is arguably a top 10ish player). Line settled in at +4 on 5D, but has since moved to +4 1/2 closer to closing. I don't think home court is enough to warrant Thunder giving 4 and a half points here. Jazz simply may outclass Thunder in terms of execution and in-game adjustments.

[Richard Clock]

This will likely be my only bet on the card. I am giving myself a little break from handicapping this week and will tackle the 224 card starting Monday. This bet was made back in February on the opening line. I thought there was clear value in Anderson in what will likely be a toss up fight. A little bit of recency bias with Cummins coming off a SD win over an overrated Villante and Anderson coming off two brutal losses vs higher tier fighters in Manuwa and OSP. Line has since moved -125 for Anderson. It is almost impossible to feel confident in either fighter in this matchup, but this appeared to be a mis-priced opening line.

[Richard Clock]

Posted 2 NBA plays, with thoughts included in my NBA betting thread just created. I will post them here as well for consistency:

[HurlSweatPants]

Good call on the Jazz, I was on the line as well. They have been a money machine for me this year, love how under the radar they have been until recently. Had the chance to meet Snyder while he was at Mizzou, most interesting coach I have ever met by far.

I like the Anderson pick as well, for those odds it is worth a shot. Looking at the handicap numbers for both the Edgar and Hooker fight, I got Edgar early at -3.5 @ +145. There is a lot of noise that Edgar is coming back to quickly, maybe it is true. Take away the noise, I feel like after watching both the Ortega fights against the two that Edgar is still the far superior fighter everywhere, and I see him winning 30-27 across the board.

[Richard Clock]

Good call on the Jazz, I was on the line as well. They have been a money machine for me this year, love how under the radar they have been until recently. Had the chance to meet Snyder while he was at Mizzou, most interesting coach I have ever met by far.

I like the Anderson pick as well, for those odds it is worth a shot. Looking at the handicap numbers for both the Edgar and Hooker fight, I got Edgar early at -3.5 @ +145. There is a lot of noise that Edgar is coming back to quickly, maybe it is true. Take away the noise, I feel like after watching both the Ortega fights against the two that Edgar is still the far superior fighter everywhere, and I see him winning 30-27 across the board.

Unfortunately, the Jazz bet was in Game 1, and I caught Paul George going nuclear from 3P. I think I would have been better off betting Jazz in Game 2, as I think Snyder is an absolutely wonderful coach and seems to be superior to Donovan in terms of in-game and game-to-game adjustments.

1-3 in NBA bets, I caught Thunder in G1, Pelicans in G3 and Bucks in G3 during their best games of the season. I feel better about the Celts and Jazz bets more than Pellies bet. I still feel like I can eek out a profit betting on these spreads, can't panic too much after the first few games.

As for Edgar/Swanson, I actually may be a little more worried about Edgar coming off the KO loss so soon at his advanced age. Still, I have no issue with you giving Edgar the benefit of the doubt in this spot, Edgar really has been a cornerstone of consistency, and Swanson is no spring chicken as well. This is more of a no bet for me, but I may consider a ML bet on Swanson if the line really gets out of hand near closing. Studies have shown that athletes in their 30s don't decline gradually, but rather eventually fall of a "cliff". Essentially, they "have it", until they don't, and the decline is usually quite significant. I am a little worried that the Ortega KO is a "cliff diving" moment for Edgar.

[Richard Clock]

So far, I am 1-3 with NBA playoff bets (down about 2 units). I am adding the following bet to combat the heavy public backing of the Sixers on the road:

Heat +4: Risking 40.50 to win 37.50 and Heat ML: 12.50 to 18.75

I tend to think this series is closer than the odds currently indicate, and the Heat should bounce back after the 76ers got some unsustainable shot making from Bellinelli and others in Game 3. Also, I trust Spoelstra to make the necessary adjustments (rotation, scheme) coming into Game 4.

[HurlSweatPants]

Ah, didn't catch that, thought it was for Game 2 my bad.

I keep hearing the chin decline about Edgar, but I think he is the outlier for the following reasons. Keep in mind, when Ortega unleashed his inner Ngannou with that uppercut, it was the first time Edgar had been stopped ITD. I know he has been in some wars, but I also believe he is extremely well conditioned and still has an iron chin. The other factor is that Ortega surprised him with a tool that Edgar didn't seem ready for, and I don't think the same mistake will be made against a guy more known for his stand up in Cub. Re-watched the Edgar/Ortega, and Frankie was moving fine and looked like he normally does, but you have to believe he was worried about the ground and that had to do with the success Ortega found on the feet. We shall see my G. BOL on your bets

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good call on the Jazz, I was on the line as well. They have been a money machine for me this year, love how under the radar they have been until recently. Had the chance to meet Snyder while he was at Mizzou, most interesting coach I have ever met by far.

I like the Anderson pick as well, for those odds it is worth a shot. Looking at the handicap numbers for both the Edgar and Hooker fight, I got Edgar early at -3.5 @ +145. There is a lot of noise that Edgar is coming back to quickly, maybe it is true. Take away the noise, I feel like after watching both the Ortega fights against the two that Edgar is still the far superior fighter everywhere, and I see him winning 30-27 across the board.

Exactly!

[Richard Clock]

I really have no issue with backing Edgar in this spot. If there is anyone that can quiet the doubters and continue to perform at a high level into his 30s, it is Frankie "penetrating" Edgar.

Needed that Anderson bet to hit after getting roughed up a little on NBA playoff betting. Easy cash on a clear value play on the mispriced opening odds. Of course, I wish I had a little more than less than 1 unit on the bet.

[Richard Clock]

I have taken a bit of a break from MMA capping, and have shifted my focus to fantasy football for now. Still, I am looking froward to tonight's UFC card, and have also thrown a less than 1 unit bet on Bader to finish King Mo. Bader has been a model of consistency at 205 and a favorite to win Bellator's Grand Prix. While the betting public expects a decision win, I think there is enough of a skill gap between the two where Bader getting a finish is underestimated. Bader appears to be one of those fighters that is somewhat unfairly typecasted as a "points" or "decision" fighter, but a >50% finish rate against a consistently tough level of competition has been sneaky impressive. King Mo is 37 years old with a decent amount of MMA experience, and may be on the downslope of his career.


No bets on the UFC card for now, was considering pulling the trigger of Vitor at +200s odds, but am laying off from now after the lining plummeting all the way to the +160s. Anyone think Raquel is worth a shot in the +600s?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I have taken a bit of a break from MMA capping, and have shifted my focus to fantasy football for now. Still, I am looking froward to tonight's UFC card, and have also thrown a less than 1 unit bet on Bader to finish King Mo. Bader has been a model of consistency at 205 and a favorite to win Bellator's Grand Prix. While the betting public expects a decision win, I think there is enough of a skill gap between the two where Bader getting a finish is underestimated. Bader appears to be one of those fighters that is somewhat unfairly typecasted as a "points" or "decision" fighter, but a >50% finish rate against a consistently tough level of competition has been sneaky impressive. King Mo is 37 years old with a decent amount of MMA experience, and may be on the downslope of his career.


No bets on the UFC card for now, was considering pulling the trigger of Vitor at +200s odds, but am laying off from now after the lining plummeting all the way to the +160s. Anyone think Raquel is worth a shot in the +600s?

Highly recommend you put some $$$ on Pennington

[Richard Clock]

Looks like you have some on the ML and by decision. Raquel is +2100 by TKO, ITD at +1080 in a 5 round fight. Haven't done any capping other than watching my recollection of their previous fights

[Hugo de Naranja]

Looks like you have some on the ML and by decision. Raquel is +2100 by TKO, ITD at +1080 in a 5 round fight. Haven't done any capping other than watching my recollection of their previous fights

With such good odds, why not just play ML?

[Richard Clock]

With such good odds, why not just play ML?

Looks like the ML has been bet down a bit, at +570 now on 5D. Haven't done any fight research myself, but if I had to guess, Pennington to get the finish would be more underestimated by the betting public than her to win by decision. Of course, I trust your judgment. Maybe some of the ML with a little on the KO/TKO? +2010 is so juciy. Then again, by sub at +1325 may be equally intriguing.

[Richard Clock]

Adding this for now, and may "complete" the 1 unit bet with the remaining $35 on Pennington ML. From the moment this fight was announced, Pennington felt like an underestimated and live dog. Hugo backing him confirms my intial lean. The odds have really gotten out of hand, as high +700 for ML on 5D. I am hoping some late action will come in on Nunes for those trying to chase their main card losses. We will see.

[Richard Clock]

As noted in the event thread last night, I added on a $25 live bet on Raquel. Still, the Bader bet was easy money that put me up a little over a unit for last night's bets.

^ These are my updated profit margins since January 1. Obviously, we see where my strength and weaknesses in handicapping lies.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice hit on that Bader ITD bet.

[getlucky2win]

Highly recommend you put some $$$ on Pennington

Must of been really high

[Hugo de Naranja]

Must of been really high