[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJVWKzkk_XQ

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One comment that Ian brings up for Saturday:

* He thinks Calgary defense down a notch this season.

That said...is it more that OTT qb Harris is legit?

[Jayvegas420]

I thought the best bet I have seen all year was OTTAWA under 12.5 wins -120.

[KVB]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJVWKzkk_XQ

I think I saw one video last year when this guy first started. He immediately started to explain facts about the CFL and then went on to show he has no idea what he is doing.

He represents a more unsophisticated type bettor, without adjusting for realistic scores. In just one instance, he said that because a single point can be scored in the CFL, there are no key numbers.

This is not only far from true, it implies he doesn't understand what a key number is. I don't think he uses numbers in what is essentially a game of numbers.

That's not good for a any type of football bettor.

I haven't watched a video of him since.

[pilebuck13]

Good call J

[ChuckyTheGoat]

kv8:

I don't think he's the best capper at all. He knows personnel, tho. I don't mind listening in to him, if I can just pick up on one injury note.

I believe he does have a +$ winning CFL track record, FWIW.

[KVB]

Yeah, I'm not trying to be so hard on him. Any legit info is good info and everyone does do things differently. I was listening a little and some of that on the ground info is valuable. SBR is not a bad place to get that.

I just remember that first video and thinking...oh boy, here we go...

[Jayvegas420]

KVB can you revisit the key numbers in CFL topic

With more single points scored in games than not, I'd be under the impression that there are no key numbers in the CFL.

While I understand that there are key numbers to cross in the NFL, in spite of having single points as well, it is much more rare.

What am I missing here KVB

[Russian Rocket]

What am I missing here KVB

brain

brān/
noun
noun: brain; plural noun: brains

• 1.
  an organ of soft nervous tissue contained in the skull of vertebrates, functioning as the coordinating center of sensation and intellectual and nervous activity.
  

  synonyms:

  cerebrum, cerebral matter, encephalon; informalgray matter "the disease attacks certain cells in the brain"

• 2.
  intellectual capacity.
  "I didn't have enough brains for the sciences"
  

  synonyms:

  intelligence, intellect, brainpower, IQ, cleverness, wit(s), reasoning, wisdom, acumen, discernment, judgment, understanding, sense; More

[Jayvegas420]

RR would you like to explain how crossing key numbers in the NFL differs from the CFL, based on differences in the rules.....


Or are you just trolling again?

[Russian Rocket]

See post #44

[MickeyMan]

Congrats on the win Jay.

How much did you have on this one a loonie?

I remember when I used to make bets with my grandma for a buck when I was 5 years old. How old are you Jay?

Have you built your bet365 account up to double figures yet? Any 50 cent parlay locks you can share with us?

[BrickJames]

I lost all my Nitrogen free plays and a little BTC on the over

[jjgold]

Jay good call

[Jayvegas420]

Congrats on the win Jay.

How much did you have on this one a loonie?

I remember when I used to make bets with my grandma for a buck when I was 5 years old. How old are you Jay?

Have you built your bet365 account up to double figures yet? Any 50 cent parlay locks you can share with us?

$40 freeplay at DSI, $22 at Bet365 & 164 betpoints.

Say hi to your Ganny for me.

For, the record, this weak shtick has already been copywrited by Seaweed.
Worked out well for him.

[Jayvegas420]

Jay good call

Thanks JJ.
Hope you caught a small piece of this.

What's with this Canadian masquerading as a Russian, polluting all my threads?

[KVB]

I think we see some points tonight, but remember Winnipeg has only played 1 game so far.

...I didn't give a sharp forecast for yesterday's game, just a stacking forecast. Even though data is weak, the sharp forecast from yesterday (BC to win 21 - 13 or 14) would have been right ATS, just like the other numbers I posted. This forecast of course is being posted after the fact.

Today, the sharp forecast shows Winnpeg winning 52-51. The stacking forecast and public gauge show almost the same Calgary 5 point victory in a 59 point game.

Again, Winnipeg has only played one game. It will take a few weeks for them to get sharpened so consider that "sharp" forecast simply as "the sharpest" forecast I can make.

From a market analysis standpoint, I like the OVER and actually bought it down to 56.5 in the trading account. It could be a 57 point game.

Good Luck...

[Jayvegas420]

I ended up on Stampeders-4.
Did not like the over.

[Jayvegas420]

Do u have any early insight on the Red Blacks game tomorrow KVB?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nichols 17/21.

Mitchell 7/15. CALG surprisingly slow out of gate.

[KVB]

I had a mistake in my book, that was supposed to an Under play in Winnipeg, not Over.

I hate those errors, costly ones at that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

KV:

It does happen. At least once per year, I do it. The WORST is when a site inverts the Soccer home/road. A lot of times, I don't know which side is Home.

That sounds stupid, but:
* The International standard is for Home to be TOP TEAM (or 1st listed on left).
* The North American standard is for Home to be on BOTTOM (or 2nd team listed from left).

[KVB]

Yeah, that 52-51 forecast was crap as well...lol.

[KVB]

Do u have any early insight on the Red Blacks game tomorrow KVB?

As far as key numbers, they aren't exactly like the NFL but they exist for spreads totals and predicted scores. It's the frequency of the scores that matter and I'll add a bit later about that.

For Toronto at Ottawa I have a few numbers that help explain the lines but that’s about it. The stacking forecast gives Ottawa a win with 34 or 36 points to Toronto’s 19 or 20 points. This also shows a bit about what I mean when I say key numbers for predicted scores.

You’ve seen this before, where I give a team a possibility of two scores with equal probability. This gives Ottawa a 14-17 point victory, with a Total between 53 and 56.

The raw score on the public gauge has Ottawa winning 31-23. I don’t adjust the public gauge, it’s not meant to be that sophisticated. But if I did, in this case, it would be Ottawa with 30 or 31 points, and Toronto with 23 or 24 points.

For the offered Total, these numbers make sense. But for the spread, it seems low.

Perhaps that’s because the sharpest forecast I can make gives Toronto the win with 34 or 36 points to Ottawa’s 30 points.

I know it’s still early in the season and these numbers aren’t the greatest, but that’s what I get.

I think in the past, with CFL I only gave the sharpest forecast and usually talked about different numbers and handicapping as layers of sophistication are added or taken away. I work with more than just a stacking forecast, which is on the more sophisticated end, and the non-predictive public gauge, which is on the other end of the spectrum.

With key numbers, I do believe that over time some of these key numbers are being eroded, especially in the NFL with things like the new extra point rules, but the numbers are still important.

For example, if you get a CFL team scoring 18 points at one point in the forecasting, look closely at the specifics. You may need an adjustment as a team is far more likely to score 17 points or even 19 points than 18 points.

You probably aren’t going to get too many 15-9 CFL scores, but if you arrive at that prediction, you may be better served by going with a more realistic 16-10 score. In this case, the same holds true for the NFL.

I’m doing a broader study to refine these adjusted scores as we speak. There have been some changes I’ve already seen and some discoveries that help us narrow down those tough choices as it’s always best to come to just 1 predicted score for each team, but sometimes two scores will simply have “equal enough” probability.

When that happens, there is no choice, and that’s why you’ve seen it in some of my forecasts.

[KVB]

I ended up on Stampeders-4...

Jay does it again, nice work.

I'm starting to think this thread has potential.

[Jayvegas420]

That may change today KVB, as I am considering laying a ton of juice on Strasburg.
Silly bet, I know but, Julio Tehran is not looking great against left handed batters this season & Washington bats are due to wake up.


After reading your evaluation I am sure I will be taking the Argos. Just not sure about ML.

[KVB]

Remember, it's not much of an evaluation; we've only had two games. With market analysis, sometimes we compete with the books, sometimes we join them, and we always compete with the average of the other bettors in the marketplace.

With some forecasts, it is bettor versus bettor with the bookmaker as the middle man and long term at this stage of the season that forecast is ok, but it's really designed to compete in a "sharper" environment. It is much more honed after about 4 games and that is also when the marketplace matures a bit.

You would think, if it's meant to compete at a more sophisticated level, the forecast would eat up "amateur hour"...or the first few weeks of the season. Even if it does, it just isn't meant to work that way.

I'm getting distracted and hope that made some sense. I may just have a small confidence problem...lol.

With the data so slim analyzing the market and moneyflow is a place to turn, but this game between Toronto and Ottawa seems well split. It's a tough call.

I agree about the moneyline, I just don't trust that sharp forecast moneyline prediction at this stage. One reason is the give and take of the season and I am confident that the sharp forecasting method will do very well against the moneyline by season's end. Like some of those hoops posts in FlyMe, there isn't much variance in those moneyline forecasting results (especially upsets)...no matter the time of season.

Not going with the Toronto moneyline seems like a culmination of lessons learned about betting some of these numbers early in the season. Taking the upset seems like a mistake that's been identified and now shouldn't be repeated.

Last time there was the CFL thread, in 2015, I gave the sharpest forecast I had from week 3 thru week 20 and the playoffs for every game. Through weeks 3, 4 and 5, the forecast was 10-2 ATS...

What was 10-2 ATS was 5-7 against moneylines and 5-5 against the Totals.

Remember, that was with as little as a 1/2 point discrepancy between my line and the market.

A tough first game tonight but maybe we can be directed to a play for game two.

[KVB]

I'm not surprised we see ambiguity in the first game, not surprised at all to see a "comeback."

Hamilton has only played one game and the only metrics I can get to any conclusion is that there isn't likely to be an upset in this second game.

The problem is that the game opened early as a pick, so thinking there isn't an upset is useless against the opener. The line quickly moved to Saskatchewan favored and has since moved back toward a pick and even Hamilton favored.

This line will probably remain a pick or even close at Hamilton -1.

For what it's worth with Hamilton only playing one game so far and to follow the money, the sharpest forecast has Saksatchewan scoring 33 or 34 points to Hamilton's 19 or 20 points.

The stacking forecast shows Saskatchewan winning 27-22.

The public gauge gives Hamilton a two point win at about 27-25.

The line seems to be honing towards the public gauge for the second game. Perhaps an indication that sharper players just don't want a part of this shit.

We need more games under out belt.

[KVB]

...Perhaps that’s because the sharpest forecast I can make gives Toronto the win with 34 or 36 points to Ottawa’s 30 points...

...For what it's worth with Hamilton only playing one game so far and to follow the money, the sharpest forecast has Saksatchewan scoring 33 or 34 points to Hamilton's 19 or 20 points...

Well shit, not only did the forecast give us the Toronto upset, but Saskatchewan beat Hamilton 37-20.

If our goal is to make a score that more reflects reality than the lines maker can keep, then I'd say it was a decent effort for the final game this week; perhaps making me look smarter than I am.

...I may just have a small confidence problem...lol...

To win, it’s good to identify things that hurt the cause and things that short circuit rational thinking. Once identified, they can be dealt with.

We were posting two years ago about how posting the thought process and reasons for plays makes you a better player. This is what it’s all about.

[KVB]

That may change today KVB, as I am considering laying a ton of juice on Strasburg.
Silly bet, I know but, Julio Tehran is not looking great against left handed batters this season & Washington bats are due to wake up.


After reading your evaluation I am sure I will be taking the Argos. Just not sure about ML.

Brutal in Washington today, just brutal.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jay, consider KvB's comments re: CFL key #s. A few things to think about:

1) It's definitely not the same thing as NFL. Mostly b/c of the Rouge, but also b/c there are so many ways to score. How many Americans knew that you could score 1pt on a kickoff? A lot of pts in the kicking game, and long returns. Different distribution for sure.

2) I'll add one element to consider. The NFL moved back the xtra pts in 2015. Consensus was that key#3 would lose some steam, b/c there were going to be more missed xpts from 33yds. Same thing in CFL, they pushed back the XPts.

See the week1 game Edmonton at BC. Under old rules, BC kicker surely knocks in the chip-shot XPt to win game. He MISSED, giving Edm new life. And EDM won on subsequent drive.

[KVB]

To add to to Chucky's #2 point...

...With key numbers, I do believe that over time some of these key numbers are being eroded, especially in the NFL with things like the new extra point rules, but the numbers are still important...

This works both ways as the players lose an "advantage" while the books will eventually have one less tool to influence the movement of money.

In the end I don't think the books will be hurting from it.

When I finish this last bit of research, I'll get into the values behind what numbers there are.

[Jayvegas420]

Wasn't able to get any bets in on Saturday. Left town literally 5 minutes after I posted.
I've been looking at the Tigers/Indians game & Klubber was less than impressive his last outing vs. Detroit.

[funnyb25]

Have had some good wins this week, but this is a LOCK

First time seeing it and bought a pack. Going back to get many more

BOL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Funny, I had that. Very good.