1. #1
    Johnny Capone
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    Oskeim Sports NFL Sunday (Write Ups)

    Oskeim Sports

    4% [NFL] (451) Philadelphia Eagles at (452) Cleveland Browns

    Time: 1:00 PM EST Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 (-115)

    Analysis: The line in this game implies that Cleveland is 8 points better than the Giants after the market moved the opening line of -2 to its current number of -3 earlier in the week. Of course, that conclusion is patently ridiculous which is why the inherent line value dictates an investment on the Eagles. My math model only favors Cleveland by 0.43 points in this game and the Browns have failed to cover the Vegas number in each of their past four games. The Browns are also 6-20-1 ATS in November affairs (0-5 ATS L/5) and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.

    Philadelphia's offense is finally getting healthy Alshon Jeffery, Jalen Reagor, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedart, and possibly even Zach Ertz healthy together for the first time all season this week. The Eagles' offensive line is also getting healthier and Cleveland placed star defensive end, Myles Garrett, on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday. Garrett, who is out Sunday, leads the league with 9.5 sacks; the rest of the team combined has only 12.5 sacks. Garrett also has an NFL-best four forced fumbles.

    Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has not thrown a touchdown pass in each of his past two games and finished with fewer than 150 passing yards in both contests. Mayfield ranks 29th in completion percentage at 61.3 (behind Nick Foles and Daniel Jones) and 24th in quarterback rating at 90.0 (behind Philip Rivers and Gardner Minshew).

    Mayfield has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass attempt against defenses that rank in the top third of the league in pressure rate since 2018. He has a 9-8 TD-INT ratio in those contests and the Browns are 2-6 in those games. Why are those metrics important? The Eagles rank No. 6 this season in pressure rate. Philadelphia also possesses an underrated run defense that is permitting an average of just 79.2 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, ninth in the NFL.
    Grab the live road underdog and invest with confidence.
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line

    4% [NFL] (465) Tennessee Titans at (466) Baltimore Ravens

    Time: 1:00 PM EST Tennessee Titans +6.5 (-110)

    Analysis: The scheduling circumstances strongly favor Tennessee, who enters this game with extra rest after playing the Colts last Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Ravens are dealing with a plethora of injuries at key positions, enter off a 23-17 loss to New England and have a huge game against Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving (96 hours after this contest). Baltimore is a money-burning 0-8 ATS since September 26, 2010 as a home favorite following a game in which it scored at least seven points less than the betting market expected.

    After New England sliced and diced the Ravens on the ground last week, I expect Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel to follow a similar gameplan behind Derrick Henry. Henry is averaging 115.7 rushing yards in three road games this season and finished with 195 rushing yards against the Ravens last January. Baltimore could be without nose tackle Brandon Williams, which is significant in that the Ravens have allowed an average of 165.1 yards rushing in the past seven games with Williams sidelined.

    The Titans offense is ranked 5th in the league in Football Outsiders Adjusted Rush DVOA, 2nd in Football Outsiders Adjusted Pass DVOA and third in Football Outsiders Total DVOA (20.8%). Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson has regressed this season, averaging a full yard per pass play less than he did in 2019. Jackson is completing just 38.8% of his passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield this season, 26th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in the NFL.

    Part of Jackson's struggles could be the decline of Baltimore's offensive line, which is missing All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who suffered a season-ending injury, and Pro Bowl right guard Marshall Yanda, who retired during the offseason. Jackson has been pressured on 37% of his dropbacks this season, which is a significant increase from 2019.
    From a technical standpoint, Tennessee is a profitable 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and 18-9-2 ATS following a loss since 2016. In contrast, Baltimore is 5-13 ATS in its last eighteen games as a home favorite and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off a loss, while Lamar Jackson is 5-11 ATS as a favorite.

    With Tennessee standing at 6-1 ATS in its previous seven road games versus teams with a winning home record, grab the points with the Titans and invest with confidence.
    Betting Line Provider: Heritage

    4% [NFL] (477) New York Jets at (478) Los Angeles Chargers

    Time: 4:05 PM EST New York Jets +9.0 (-115)

    Analysis: How is a two-win team that has lost seven of its last eight games laying close to double-digits to a conference opponent? New York applies to a very good 28-7 ATS contrarian system of mine that invests on certain winless road teams off a home loss as underdogs provided they covered the point spread in the game. The Jets also fall into a contrarian 40-13 ATS situation that invests on certain road underdogs off six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13.

    NFL teams that are three or more games under .500 on the season with a .332 or worse against-the-spread record are 63-32 ATS following a bye week, including 37-9 ATS as underdogs of six or more points. Los Angeles is a money-burning 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 home games, 3-10-1 ATS in its last fourteen games as a favorite, 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in its previous five November affairs. The Chargers are 3-16 ATS in games decided by eight or fewer points dating back to 2019, with all seven losses this season coming by eight or fewer points.

    With winless NFL underdogs of six or more points with rest standing at 17-4 ATS from Game Five out since 1990, grab the points with the Jets and invest with confidence.
    Betting Line Provider: Heritage
    Analysis: Indianapolis opened as a 2.5-point home underdog in this game before the betting market was flooded with Colts' money, driving the line 4.5-points in the other direction. My math model favors Green Bay in this game and the Packers are 5-1 SU and ATS as road underdogs under head coach Matt LaFleur.

    Green Bay has covered the spread in four of its five road games this season and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown for at least 280 yards and three touchdowns in each of the past four games. Rodgers leads the NFL with an 84.8 Total QBR this season and has three games with 300-plus passing yards and four-plus passing touchdowns.

    Rodgers is averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt, which is his best mark since 2014. His 26 passing touchdowns already matches his total from last season. The Packers' prolific passing attack is relevant in that Indianapolis is just 18-26-2 ATS in competitively-priced home games (+3 to -3) versus teams averaging 32 or more passes per game.

    Rodgers is 4-0 and averaging 296.5 pass yards per game with nine passing touchdowns in his past four games played at indoor stadiums. The Packers' offense is ranked in the top 5 in both passing success and explosiveness this season, while their ground attack is ninth in rushing success.

    I also like the fact that Green Bay's defense ranks inside the top 10 in both rushing and passing explosiveness allowed. In other words, the Packers don't give up big plays and the Colts' one-dimensional offense is 28th in the league in rushing success. Do you really trust 39-year-old Philip Rivers to keep up with the Packers' multi-faceted attack?
    Finally, Green Bay is 9-0 ATS since November 11, 2018 following a game in which it failed to cover the spread by seven or more points. Grab the points with the better team and invest with confidence.

    3% [NFL] (461) Green Bay Packers at (462) Indianapolis Colts

    Time: 4:25 PM EST Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-110)


    4% [NFL] (453) Atlanta Falcons at (454) New Orleans Saints

    Time: 1:00 PM EST New Orleans Saints -4.5 (-110)

    Analysis: Atlanta looks like a new team following the termination of Dan Quinn, going 3-1 under interim head coach Raheem Morris after losing five straight prior to Quinn's departure. However, the Falcons now face an elite New Orleans team that boasts one of the league's best defenses. The Saints' defense ranks 4th in yards per play allowed, 1st in rushing yards per attempt allowed and 12th in net yards per pass play allowed.

    New Orleans enters off a 27-13 win over the 49ers in which they finished with a 52.1% DVOA from Football Outsiders, which is the second-highest single game of the Saints' season and the second-highest single game of Week 10. The Saints limited San Francisco to 4.3 yards per play with two interceptions and completely shut down the 49ers ground game (49 yards on 25 carries). According to Football Outsiders' advanced metrics, New Orleans has the second-best run defense in the NFL over the last 21 years.

    In contrast, Atlanta enters tonight's game with the 22nd ranked defensive DVOA. The Falcons' stop unit is last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.5) and 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed (7.7). New Orleans won't have Drew Brees under center after he suffered multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung in last week's game against the 49ers. However, the Saints have a serviceable backup in Jameis Winston, who has 70 career NFL starts and led the league with 5,109 passing yards last season.

    Winston is surrounded by one of the NFL’s best offensive minds in head coach Sean Payton and some of the league’s best offensive talent. Running back Alvin Kamara has a league-high 1,134 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns, while wide receiver Michael Thomas is healthy after winning last year’s Offensive Player of the Year award with an NFL-record 149 catches. Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook both create matchup problems for opposing defenses and Winston has the benefit of lining up behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines.

    Winston had LASIK surgery during the offseason and arrived in New Orleans in the best shape of his life. His dedication has caught the attention of Brees and others. “This guy's here early, he stays late, he puts in a ton of time, and he's got the way that he watches film, breaks down film. He spends a ton of extra time after practice receiving additional reps, additional throws, really trying to master the game, master the position and this offense,” Brees said. “I appreciate that a lot about him."

    Finally, New Orleans possesses significantly better special teams and the Saints have covered the Vegas number in four of the last five meetings in this series. Lay the small number with New Orleans and invest with confidence.
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line




    Good Luck!
    Capone
    Fade/Follow/F.O.

  2. #2
    madden08
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    Does Oskeim know Winston is not starting today

  3. #3
    Johnny Capone
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    Quote Originally Posted by madden08 View Post
    Does Oskeim know Winston is not starting today
    Apparently not lol? Good point!

  4. #4
    ridgeway
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    Anything from these guy's today or tomorrow?

  5. #5
    Johnny Capone
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    Quote Originally Posted by ridgeway View Post
    Anything from these guy's today or tomorrow?
    I will ck.

  6. #6
    kobe bean
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Capone View Post
    I will ck.
    he has 2 look at the other forum 2 see if anyone posted his plays yet lmao......he says i will check like he is doing something lmfao...what a clown

  7. #7
    kobe bean
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    ridge im sure u know about the other forum if u dont write me ..

  8. #8
    kobe bean
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    always thought u 2 guys the same person...

  9. #9
    kobe bean
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    capone probably answers his own questions lmao....no one else talks 2 him

  10. #10
    ridgeway
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    Quote Originally Posted by kobe bean View Post
    ridge im sure u know about the other forum if u dont write me ..
    I'm well aware of other forums. As far as Capone and I being the same person. Don't be foolish.

  11. #11
    kobe bean
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    Quote Originally Posted by ridgeway View Post
    I'm well aware of other forums. As far as Capone and I being the same person. Don't be foolish.
    it was definitely a reach lol...but im done being negative...gl 2 all

  12. #12
    ridgeway
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    Quote Originally Posted by kobe bean View Post
    it was definitely a reach lol...but im done being negative...gl 2 all
    It's all good. I need some winners. I've had a bad month at the book.

  13. #13
    kobe bean
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    Quote Originally Posted by ridgeway View Post
    It's all good. I need some winners. I've had a bad month at the book.
    lets do it today baby...gl buddy...

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