1. 06-20-16 07:07 AM #1
    LeahMichele
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    $1000 to $5000 with +EV PLAYS ONLY

    1. Maximum per play $200 to win or risk. No getting behind and going all in to get back.

    2. No silly sports. Like japanese softball or badminton.

    3. No time limit. Its not about time. Its about +EV.

    4. Only honest, real lines.

    5. No credit. Cant bet more than current balance.

    6. Can hedge futures but only with available balance.

    7. Only counting plays posted before start.

    8. No units. Actual amounts.

    9. Have $1000 Beg. Bal. Success = $5000.

    10. No teasers or other extravagant plays.
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  2. 06-20-16 07:09 AM #2
    LeahMichele
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    Detroit vs mariners under 10 -105

    $84 wins $80

    Pelfrey vs. Karns
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  3. 06-20-16 07:11 AM #3
    LeahMichele
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    Texas Rangers to win AL + 500

    Posted in players talk

    Risk $200 wins $1000

    Balance $716
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  4. 06-20-16 06:13 PM #4
    Ralphie Halves
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    Is this a special thread for Saloon viewers only, or do the mods think little of your quest?

    And not hating, just letting you know, there's nothing +EV about a futures bet.
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  5. 06-21-16 12:35 AM #5
    Plaza23
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    Yeah, I'm not sure how you are assuming plays are +EV. Just picking one side of a line isn't +EV.
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  6. 06-21-16 02:59 AM #6
    LeahMichele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Halves View Post
    Is this a special thread for Saloon viewers only, or do the mods think little of your quest?

    And not hating, just letting you know, there's nothing +EV about a futures bet.
    Plenty of future bets are + EV.

    I Put it here because I couldnt start a thread in Private.
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  7. 06-21-16 04:53 AM #7
    ACoochy
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeahMichele View Post
    Detroit vs mariners under 10 -105

    $84 wins $80

    Pelfrey vs. Karns
    In no mathematician but thats not a +EV line play...
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  8. 06-21-16 05:10 AM #8
    LeahMichele
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    Tennis

    Milan round 1

    BERLOTCQ -450 over Quinzi

    Risk $225 to win $50

    Balance $916 ( $400 pending )
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  9. 06-21-16 05:11 AM #9
    LeahMichele
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACoochy View Post
    In no mathematician but thats not a +EV line play...
    Guess not. There will be losses though.
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  10. 06-21-16 05:36 AM #10
    Gaze73
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    You'll go broke within a month.
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  11. 06-21-16 05:55 AM #11
    ACoochy
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeahMichele View Post
    Guess not. There will be losses though.
    Didn't mean it like that...

    From the thread title I thought you were only making picks that were +100 or greater +EV...
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  12. 06-21-16 06:31 AM #12
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACoochy View Post
    Didn't mean it like that...

    From the thread title I thought you were only making picks that were +100 or greater +EV...
    +EV means positive expected value, even a -1000 favorite is +EV if it has 95% chance of winning.
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  13. 06-21-16 06:52 AM #13
    ACoochy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    +EV means positive expected value, even a -1000 favorite is +EV if it has 95% chance of winning.
    Yeah I know what it means, just misinterpreted the meaning in title is all...

    GL
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  14. 06-23-16 01:37 AM #14
    LeahMichele
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    6/23

    MARINERS +118

    Risking $100 for $118

    Balance $966

    Both starters just coming up from the minors. Mariner starter Sampson got hit hard in his first ML srart but that was red sox and this is tigers. The tigers starter daniel nelson had a near 5 ERA this year in minors so Mariners will get to him and once they get to that bullpen they will have a great shot here. The +118 looks major + EV here to me but i wont go the max $200 just $100 as Sampson could be a concern. I just like everything about the mariners better here. They have better bats, better pitcher going by minor league numbers anyway, definetly a better bullpen and + 118. Love this spot.
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  15. 06-23-16 01:43 AM #15
    LeahMichele
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    Coochy your the tennis guy here but i had a couple people tell me berlotcq would win for sure and he was only -450. So i took him and of course the match started like 3 hours late. Every time i checked his price was higher. It was like -800/+525 by the time it started. Is this normal in tennis as i remember ur bet did the same? You dont see thus kind of line movement in mainstream sports. WTF -450 to -800.
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  16. 06-23-16 07:59 PM #16
    LeahMichele
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeahMichele View Post
    6/23

    MARINERS +118

    Risking $100 for $118

    Balance $966

    Both starters just coming up from the minors. Mariner starter Sampson got hit hard in his first ML srart but that was red sox and this is tigers. The tigers starter daniel nelson had a near 5 ERA this year in minors so Mariners will get to him and once they get to that bullpen they will have a great shot here. The +118 looks major + EV here to me but i wont go the max $200 just $100 as Sampson could be a concern. I just like everything about the mariners better here. They have better bats, better pitcher going by minor league numbers anyway, definetly a better bullpen and + 118. Love this spot.
    no action. Sampson didn't start
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  17. 06-25-16 05:57 PM #17
    LeahMichele
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    PIRATES +138

    Listed - Locke and Maeda must go

    Risking $200 to win $276

    Balance $966 Includes pending plays
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  18. 06-25-16 09:21 PM #18
    LeahMichele
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    Winner on Pirates

    Balance $1242

    So far a return (profit ) of 24.2%.
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