I mentioned a quarterly review each time and have a basic one here. I have listed the plays posted in this thread from weeks 3, 4 and 5.
I have broken this down into the all bold plays I’ve listed as well as just the first buy point for each game. On the left is my record per game. If you just entered the market once on my play then that would be an issue.
You can see the results per $100 bet for each bold play and each issue.
There is also a crude review of the closing line and whether it was beat…something I wasn’t concerned with too much these weeks and doesn’t account for prices.
Finally you can see whether I, or the models being worked with, predicted the line movement. While I didn’t always get the best line, there were no unpredictable movements on these plays.
For the 12 games, the early season models being used were 10-2 ATS and 5-7 against the moneylines (which means little without the prices). The models were 5-5 against the Totals, with 2 games right on the spread.
Issue |
|
|
|
$100 Bet |
|
Closing |
Beat the |
Predict |
Record |
|
Play |
Result |
Per Bold |
Per Issue |
Price |
Closer? |
Movement? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-0 |
9-Jul |
Ott/Edm OVER 45.5 (-108) |
W |
92.59 |
92.59 |
45.5 |
= |
Y |
1-0-1 |
10-Jul |
BC -3 (-105) |
P |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
= |
Y |
2-0-1 |
17-Jul |
Edm -145 |
W |
68.97 |
68.97 |
-150 |
+ |
Y |
3-0-1 |
|
BC/SSK UNDER 51.5 (-103) |
W |
97.09 |
97.09 |
52 |
- |
Y |
3-1-1 |
24-Jul |
Cal/Ott Under 47.5 (-110) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
46.5 |
- |
Y |
|
|
Cal/Ott Under 47 (-110) |
L |
-100 |
|
|
|
|
3-2-1 |
|
BC -3 (+102) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
-2 |
- |
Y |
|
|
BC -2.5 (-115) |
L |
-100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
BC -2 (-108) |
L |
-100 |
|
|
|
|
4-2-1 |
|
Cal/Ott 2nd UNDER 24 (-110) |
W |
90.91 |
90.91 |
24 |
= |
Y |
5-2-1 |
25-Jul |
Win/Edm UNDER 50.5 (-102) |
W |
98.04 |
98.04 |
50.5 |
= |
Y |
|
|
Win/Edm UNDER 51 (-112) |
W |
89.29 |
|
|
|
|
6-2-1 |
|
Win TT UNDER 22.5 (-110) |
W |
90.91 |
90.91 |
22.5 |
|
|
7-2-1 |
26-Jul |
Hamilton +1 (-101) |
W |
99.01 |
99.01 |
1.5 |
- |
Y |
|
|
Hamilton +2 (-105) |
W |
95.24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hamilton +1.5 (+102) |
W |
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7-2-1 |
|
|
|
424.05 |
437.52 |
|
|
|
Notice that a bettor betting on each game fared slightly better than the bettor picking up each bold play.
Looking back I can see one too many BC bets, or this condition would be different.
The win-loss record per issue was 7-2-1; one of those wins is against a money line.