A little over a year ago, the Nashville Predators matched the gigantic 14 year $110 million offer sheet for defenseman Shea Weber from the Philadelphia Flyers.
Looking back through the advantage of hindsight, we can ask whether or not it was the right move for the franchise. A year later, it seems like it was not.
Nashville posted a 16-23-9 record last season, missed the playoffs, and finished dead last in their division. They were the second worst team in their conference points wise finishing ahead of only Colorado.
Nashville paid Weber a total of $27 million last season. Forbes valued the entire Predators franchise at $167 million which means, last season, Weber took up a full 16% of the entire value of the franchise by himself.
In addition, his cap hit also hinders Nashville's ability to address other areas of weakness. Considering that had Nashville decided to let the Flyers have Weber, they could have received 4 first round draft choices to help them rebuild. If they decided to work out a trade, they could have received a boatload of talent for him.
Now, thanks to the NHL's Cap Advantage Recapture System in the new CBA, Nashville is now hindered even trading him away.
In the simplest explanation, it holds teams accountable for front-loaded contracts that are in excess of six years. If for a given year you are paying a player $14 million in salary and/or bonuses, but his cap hit is only $6 million, you are benefiting from a “cap advantage” of $8 million in that season. This system is designed to make you accountable for those “savings” should the player retire early and not fulfill his entire contract.
Simply put, if Weber decides to retire before his contract expires, Nashville will be put into a financial hell.
At this point, I cannot see the advantage of Nashville keeping Weber. They didn't come close to making the playoffs last year with him. In fact, they were downright horrible. He hinders their ability to address other areas of need financially, and if he decides to retire early, they pay the price for matching the contract.
At this point, as a Flyers fan, I have to thank Nashville for matching the offer sheet. At this point, the risks outweigh the benefits.