1. #85821
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    under fade week (5d opener)

    ARK ST/LA MON (67)
    HOU/UCF (69.5)
    MIDTEN/CHAR (60.5)
    ORE ST/ARIZ (69.5)
    LIBRTY/UMASS (67.5)


    i wonder if the majority of lines move for/against you one week, does that have implications for the current or future betting weeks?
    It's tough to make that call over a week, just the stuff I'm posting has so much variance.

    Even though I don't always subscribe to, or view the markets as efficient anytime the majority of lines move our way, it seems like it should be considered a good thing.

    But you are getting at an important part of this results analysis and I really dropped some hints you might have picked up on, or it's true what they say that you are just one creative mutherfukker in your own right.

    I mentioned expecting a performance against the close, hoping the closer stabilizes, even threw out the term consolidation with no explanation on what I meant.

    And in weeks past, we've been talking about the charts, when they go the same, converge, diverge. I think, efficient or not, I would always rather be beating the close over time and losing money, than the other way around. But we're analyzing all this, in real time, showing not only that there's plenty of money to be made when struggling against the closer but that the whole host of relationships have variance.

    That's one place I'm heading here, I think I mentioned one Fund having gone through the "cycle." We need the world to fall that way, a real time example, and then hopefully I will have written enough in previous posts and be able to do something similar to predicting the UPSET Basket slide, with highlighted charts.

    I may cut off the first parts of those running average charts so we can zoom in, getting more detail.

    It's fun too, I don't think it's too dry if you're following along.

    I don't claim to know it all, that said some things I keep saying are best taught by example. It's a long term project here.

    In the end, though, after all the variance, more often than not, if you beat the closer handily across the board in a given week, you're going to make money that week, or at least get even. Not always though, obviously.

    But when it comes to implications for further weeks, I suppose it's about making sense of that noise.

    Excited about the haymaker Fund, and the implications a reversal will have for revealing even more. Watching these market "functions" play out, even if my spread and Total plays are struggling, is still a good watch.

    It seemed like I was beating the closer this week pretty good in a few places and I get this feeling there's going to be a unit pop somewhere along the way. Things just feel due.

    This post kind of got long...lol. I suppose no matter what gets laid down, we have to always remember that we are dealing in probabilities, even if some (like some chart technicals) seem like pretty high probability. For those, it's like we're trading a high probability conclusion only to have uncertainty stick it's nose back in place.

    For example, yeah, I can tell you the moving averages crossing means we have some legs left in the direction we're headed, with pretty darn good certainty too (it's the nature of the stat), but that's all that will tell you, unfortunately. Or is it? Maybe we should consider the distance those lines apart, and how the trend in relation.

    A sort of, MACD, or moving average convergence divergence metric. More than just whether they cross or not. But even so, with the charts in rotation order and so many games going off at once, is it useful? There's a long and short term to consider.



  2. #85822
    KVB
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    That post was a bit long.

    So I'm just going to set this here...


  3. #85823
    Tanko
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Good info KVB thanks.
    Although I don't fit the "Gansta" mold, that song it freaking awesome. Ever since I heard it in "Office Space" its been on the top of my playlist.

    Craking it up now. Wife is freaking out.

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  4. #85824
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Office Space one of the best movies.


  5. #85825
    DiggityDaggityDo
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  6. #85826
    Bostongambler
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    I’ll take the blonde

  7. #85827
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    I’ll take the blonde
    Are you going to share?

  8. #85828
    Bostongambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Are you going to share?
    Diggity we went over this. I’ll share money, friends, and what was the third thing 🤔

  9. #85829
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    Diggity we went over this. I’ll share money, friends, and what was the third thing 樂
    BG, you not about the 'bros before hoes' life?

  10. #85830
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    BG, you not about the 'bros before hoes' life?
    I am man, I am. Also for the homies not around I acknowledge

  11. #85831
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    I bet BG will pick one or even two and not even share.


  12. #85832
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    I’ll take all three please 🙃

  13. #85833
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

    346 2-Nov COLORADO/UCLA 65 (-110)
    360 SMU/MEMPHIS UNDER 71.5 (-102)
    360 UTSA/TEX A&M UNDER 53.5 (-105)
    396 FRESNO ST/HAWAII UNDER 69.5 (-105)

    That rotation number is obviously pointing to the UNDER in Colorado vs. UCLA and I also posted this yesterday...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Here's the KVB NCAAF Totals Fund through week 9 with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison...
    I do expect a comeback here, but I doubt it's led by OVER bets. This week there 4 UNDER bets in play so far...
    Because the rotation number originally posted indicates the UNDER, I am not going to make another official post to link the correction.


  14. #85834
    KVB
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    There were no NBA plays on Saturday, oddly.

    I suppose I'd better stretch more...


  15. #85835
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    The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund has picked up...

    167 9-Nov LSU +225

    An early opener for next week so I had to stretch early today...


  16. #85836
    turtledoves
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    thanks for the gangsta post. good to put things in perspective, sometimes it's easy to buy into an analysis too much. i suppose one can run models or queries against the data points/situations that make up the charts.

  17. #85837
    turtledoves
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    week 9 unders

    2019-10-31: SF/ARI (44)
    2019-11-03: HOU/JAX (47)
    2019-11-03: NE/BAL (44)
    2019-11-03: TB/SEA (53)
    2019-11-04: DAL/NYG (48)
    Last edited by turtledoves; 11-03-19 at 10:23 AM.
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  18. #85838
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    thanks for the gangsta post. good to put things in perspective, sometimes it's easy to buy into an analysis too much. i suppose one can run models or queries against the data points/situations that make up the charts.
    The analysis is compelling, for sure, at this point it's a matter of gaining data points week by week.We'll get the ball rolling with NBA too. With these functions we can see the same things in the charts in different sports.

    There's an NFL Contrarian Fund as well. Those Denver and LAC plays this week are highly contrarian, but the actual contrarian market tracking Fund for the NFL is 9-8.

    Today's NFL Contrarian Fund plays are PIT -1 and LAC +4.

    By season end, though, we will have a lot more NBA games to work with than NFL.

    The only other thing is for me to go back in history and post results that were before tracking, like I sometimes do with the haymaker Fund.

    Let's face it though, while I'll always be honest about all of this, it sure is more compelling when you can see it play out and accumulate in real time and eliminates any questions of tracking credibility.

    We're doing some unique things here and that's probably because KVB's High!!!


  19. #85839
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    What’s on the tv?


  20. #85840
    turtledoves
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    why can't i wear jean shorts

    Away System
    2019-11-03: CHI/PHI
    2019-11-03: NYJ/MIA
    2019-11-03: CLE/DEN
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  21. #85841
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    What’s on the tv?

    Jerry Springer, perhaps?

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  22. #85842
    Bostongambler
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    Suddenly I’m in the mood for clams.

  23. #85843
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    Suddenly I’m in the mood for clams.


    I think you said that about pasta primavara a while back but I never saw the post that put you in the mood.

    Instead of clams from above, I went for pancakes. I suppose that's the difference between lunch time in Boston and breakfast in CA.


  24. #85844
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Left, Right or middle?



    And what's on the tv?

  25. #85845
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Left or Right?


  26. #85846
    DiggityDaggityDo
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  27. #85847
    Bostongambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Left, Right or middle?



    And what's on the tv?
    Right.


    Did I guess correct?
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  28. #85848
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    Right.


    Did I guess correct?
    Close enough

  29. #85849
    KVB
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    The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

    166 9-Nov S ALABAMA +7 (-105)




  30. #85850
    Bostongambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Close enough
    Thanks bud. Do I get her now?

  31. #85851
    KVB
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    Fuk, more system trouble. I may lose value on same later plays but here's the current buys...

    The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

    119 9-Nov FLORIDA ST +100
    191 UTAH ST +115


    The KVB NCAAF Visitng Dog ML Fund has picked up...

    101 5-Nov KENT ST +240
    103 BALL ST +240
    105 6-Nov MIA (OH) +210
    151 9-Nov UTSA +165
    165 S ALABAMA +225
    175 UAB +225
    183 K STATE +195
    185 N TEXAS +195
    189 FLOR INT +310

    The Visiting Dog ML Fund currently holds...

    167 9-Nov LSU +225


  32. #85852
    KVB
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    The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

    179 9-Nov TENNESSEE +115

    The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund has added...

    125 9-Nov LOUISVILLE +170
    135 ILLINOIS +340
    155 WYOMING +350
    173 IOWA ST +400
    193 IOWA +290
    199 SJST +225

    I hope I didn't make a mistake. If I did, we might have to correct it.


  33. #85853
    Bostongambler
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    Nice cannabis

  34. #85854
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Left, Right or middle?



    And what's on the tv?
    Right.

    Will Smith.

    I'm going with a Bad Boys movie.


  35. #85855
    Tanko
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Left, Right or middle?



    And what's on the tv?
    Middle.
    Movie = Aladdin
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