[KVB]

Nicholas needed that song two weeks ago.

Bruh.

I'll admit though, it's no Soulja Boy...

[KVB]

On South Florida DDD and it was really, really close to being a DDD Super Sharp Play Fund play.

So look for a swih ih iish.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

KVB, you don't know what Nicholas is going through.

You dont't know what he needs and does not need in his life.

What are you hating on Nicholas, KVB?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

On South Florida DDD and it was really, really close to being a DDD Super Sharp Play Fund play.

So look for a swih ih iish.

[KVB]

KVB, you don't know what Nicholas is going through.

You dont't know what he needs and does not need in his life.

What are you hating on Nicholas, KVB?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Wait... Why the fuk am I Ross now???

[KVB]

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after Thursday, through 574 plays...

908	29-Aug	ARI +174	1.74
913	29-Aug	OAK/KC OVER 10 (-115)	0.87
916		TB/HOU UNDER 9 (+100)	-1
		Thu	1.61
		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Mon	-3
		Tue	-0.78
		Wed	-4
		Total	-2.36

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL fund after Thursday, through 98 plays...

917	27-Aug	TB +1.5 (-125)	-1
924		SEA +1.5 (+105)	-1
962	28-Aug	SEA +1.5 (+140)	-1
967		TB +1.5 (-105)	-1
915	29-Aug	TB +1.5 (+115)	1.15
		Week 23	-2.85
		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Weeks 16-20	-4.55
		Week 21	-1.13
		Week 22	3.21
		Total	-9.97

It was time for a winning day.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

What does "fattest vagina in the world" even mean?

[KVB]

Wait... Why the fuk am I Ross now???

[DiggityDaggityDo]

What does "fattest vagina in the world" even mean?

I don't know, but I want to find out!

[KVB]

[KVB]

Action Jackson

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

181		31-Aug	SC/NC OVER 63 (-105)
216			HOU/OK UNDER 80 (-105)

Busy, lines are, moving.

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

161	31-Aug		FAU +27.5 (-105)
183			Duke +33.5 (-105)
204			PIT +2.5 (+100)

[KVB]

The KCV NCAAF UPSET Basket as added...

175

31-Aug

MISS +145

Game starts soon.

[turtledoves]

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

901	31-Aug	CIN +123
903		MIL +144

[KVB]

Good Luck Doves, busy day but I've been thinking about pal, all week long.

All those graphs, closing line comparison, was party with you in mind there.

Busy now, but been working on some Project Proton stuff, including a need for some SQL programming, I think.

Honestly thinking about a video call with you.

Th first things I do you will think might be stupid, or a waste of time, but after few months, you might disagree.

Good to see you in the thread.

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

920

30-Aug

TOR +1.5 (+100)

White Sox are on the RL Fund radar as well.

[KVB]

It was disappointing to see the Cincy game yesterday ppd, I hate when we don't get to play out the triggers...

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after Friday, through 581 plays...

953		NYM +138	1.38
957		CIN +125	-
962		ARI +110	1.1
963		SD +120	-1
976		KC -105	-1
978		LAA +113	-1
979		CHW +187	-1
		Fri	-1.52
		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Mon	-3
		Tue	-0.78
		Wed	-4
		Thu	1.61
		Total	-3.88

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund after Friday, through 100 plays...

917	27-Aug	TB +1.5 (-125)	-1
924		SEA +1.5 (+105)	-1
962	28-Aug	SEA +1.5 (+140)	-1
967		TB +1.5 (-105)	-1
915	29-Aug	TB +1.5 (+115)	1.15
968	30-Aug	TOR +1.5 (+120)	-1
979		CHW +1.5 (+100)	-1
		Week 23	-4.85
		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Weeks 16-20	-4.55
		Week 21	-1.13
		Week 22	3.21
		Total	-11.97

Tough year for the runlines, those favorites still winning big.

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

931

31-Aug

CHW +1.5 (-105)

[KVB]

I didn't review the UPSET Basket charts, and some of the cases for the market function. It reveals why SMU moneyline is paying.

I would be surprised if it does and consider increasing the investment in the Fund it fails.

I'll get to work on those charts and a larger upset Fund that had no plays this week.

Posting this song, that just started so I haven't heard it yet...

[KVB]

I won't go over the description of the NCAA UPSET basket, did that with the first plays this year, but here's last year's performance with links to the description and final summary last year...

NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
Total	2.5		88-35-3	0.15

Here's the chart of units for last year...


Here's the running average against the close from last year. Any point on the chart represents the avg performance against the close up to that point in the season...




I want to add to this running avg, both for the year and total, that's the meat of what this charting will look like. I am not going to past post the running avg vs. the close here, I want to move forward with that. That late drop at the end of the season was the result of the final play made on Southern -110. The line closed at +175. So as we get more plays under our belt, that line should stablize and then we can zoom in on the scale.

I have run the UPSET Basket since 2005 and I want to show the chart of all those years. If anyone wants to zoom in to see any portions, maybe before or after drops, we can overlay avgs and other metrics, chime in.

These "functions" are market based, track aspects of the market, and this as close to legit stock style charting as we get right now. I am also working on a method and "algorithm" that takes into account the actual movement of money around the betting population, but even more the league itself. Just another way to check the condition of the markets.

This is not a back test chart, this is the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket before it was called that, when I first began betting this strategy. I have bet it every year since with a "plateau" style of money management but this chart assumes 1 unit risked for every play made over the Fund's life. It has been profitable, but more so than the chart says as the unit has increased....



Here's that big drop form a couple of years ago, it was in 2016...




Looking at the lifetime chart, and last year, I think we are in a sideways market that will test some levels, maybe more than once, before we rise again. We could also a drop, before rising again.

Here's a bit of KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket trivia. Over the all the years, the first play of the season in this Fund, by rotation order, has only won in 2006 and 2007. In every other year, including last year, the first play made has lost. It's tough to see, but that big chart actually starts with -1 units.

There's another Fund, it involves larger money line upsets, and it's another market function. It may be time to buy into it. I will get into that Fund next, before any plays are generated this year.

[KVB]

...Looking at the lifetime chart, and last year, I think we are in a sideways market that will test some levels, maybe more than once, before we rise again. We could also a drop, before rising again...

I want to address this topic.

There are times the UPSET Basket generates plays that get away from us in the market. While value might seem to get better, truthfully with this function, if we had waited we wouldn't be buying the play. In the past it didn't matter, we took the good with the bad, saw the avg against the close drop, took profit, but a little less; and we lived with it.

Last year, the Fund was up +2.5 UNITS but we can see that 5 UNITS were lost to these plays. So when I talk about sideways markets, our level right now is a little lower than this effect from years past.

I am considering starting an UPSET Basket Buyback Fund. I often say that I feel a play will lose but who are we to say what individual plays will lose or not, so we take our lumps. The Buyback might be an attempt to identify some plays that will go sour for the Fund and just minimize the damage.

This would create two tracking rows. One would be the buybacks, which should always be negative. I doubt we make a move to gain units there, but a component like that isn't out of the question. The other tracking row is all the plays not involved in a buyback. By removing the buyback plays, the performance against the closing line will inevitably go higher, as should the Units won. The effect on the closing line could be significant, as we would be buying back well before the close, before the number even got further away from us.

There are pitfalls. Numbers can move and move back, and we can give up some winning plays. It's a tough call.

I mentioned that I jumped the gun with Illinois State and that play certainly would have been a buyback, and it lost. It moved further and now it will hurt the avg against the close. We would have minimized the damage there with a buyback, in this case.

If I do start an UPSET Basket Buyback Fund, there will also be one for the Fund with larger upsets.

[Da Manster!]

KVB,

I absolutely love the Cougars tomorrow and the very generous points against Oklahoma...it's my best bet and lock of the week...I also posted the play in my picks thread and got the number at (+24.5) early last week!..looks like I beat the closing number...thoughts and opinion?...what do your detailed and intricate forecasts predict?

[KVB]

It's still the early season and the forecast isn't the greatest but I have OK winning 49-31. I can see why the spread dropped down. I haven't triggered any Houston, but I agree it's generous.

Your 24.5 is just that much better and according to that forecast a sizeable overlay. Good Stuff there, beating the market too.

That forecast is a crazy high Total and was pretty much at the market.

The Totals Fund shows a contrarian adjustment that put that line low enough to cause a trigger at 80 with the info we had in the market...

...KVB NCAAF Totals Fund. This Fund will track NCAA Football Total plays generated using a blend of two methods. First, the games will be handicapped with a stacking percentages forecast and that will overlay a market analysis that includes regressions and can often take a contrarian form. There will be triggers to plays, but they won’t always be bought at the open. There will often be time for the market to mature, providing more information to develop a play, which can result in better or worse numbers...

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

181		31-Aug	SC/NC OVER 63 (-105)
216			HOU/OK UNDER 80 (-105)

...

I screwed up the date there but that's where I posted it.

It looks like I'm beating the number too and I will admit, that 79.5 is good but at 79, that it's going to take a a line freeze in the face of pressure upward to create an adjustment for UNDER there, but I don't think we see it.

I'm happy with that 80.

That's how tight the margins are here, we got stay within the hoop, even if we bounce of the edges...

[KVB]

From a situational, or spot like market perspective, I suppose the only thing I don't like about Houston is that they are looking to become a trendy dog here.

And with it being the big swing game this weekend and a top 5 team, it will have a lot of attention. With OK having a big 4 next to their name, it seems like Houston getting trendy isn't likely.

But that line did drop and it seemed like they were one throughout today



Chilling, good work throughout but Garcia at 6:17 sets a trippy tone...