[PunisherIND]

I currently show -1000, are you located outside of the US?

its at -2000 now. also, bovada is hanging u64 @ +100

[NunyaBidness]

its at -2000 now. also, bovada is hanging u64 @ +100

Weird, usually PO and sportsbook are exact matches.

So, I'll correct myself and say PlayersOnly.com still has chestnut at -1000.

[Beelzebubzy]

Under 63 at +140
i hit it

[NunyaBidness]

Under 63 at +140
i hit it

I'd hold off currently, with the arbs disappearing, the downward pressure should disappear and I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit the +200 range before noon.

[PunisherIND]

Weird, usually PO and sportsbook are exact matches.

So, I'll correct myself and say PlayersOnly.com still has chestnut at -1000.

oh, my bad. i thought you were talking about 5dimes.

SB does have chestnut at -1000

[NunyaBidness]

oh, my bad. i thought you were talking about 5dimes.

SB does have chestnut at -1000

Anybody have a recommendation for a new attorney? My old one has reading comprehension issues.

[Vaughany]

hehe

[PunisherIND]

Anybody have a recommendation for a new attorney? My old one has reading comprehension issues.

5d has an o/u for 69.5 dogs (over +200 / -280)

[MD]

u65.5 -110. Took it.

[PunisherIND]

Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 67½* +150
Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 61½* +300

risky polish middle, but if we assume that chestnut doesnt need to reach 60 to win,
and further assume the only reason he would need to go that high is if he were trying
to break the record (68), this might be a logical play.

thoughts?

[MD]

Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 67½* +150
Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 61½* +300

risky polish middle, but if we assume that chestnut doesnt need to reach 60 to win,
and further assume the only reason he would need to go that high is if he were trying
to break the record (68), this might be a logical play.

thoughts?

Wouldn't it need to be o61.5 and u67.5 to be a middle? You can't win both sides with your wager.

[NunyaBidness]

Wouldn't it need to be o61.5 and u67.5 to be a middle? You can't win both sides with your wager.

That's why it's a polish middle you noob.

[PunisherIND]

Wouldn't it need to be o61.5 and u67.5 to be a middle? You can't win both sides with your wager.

polish middle. its essentially the opposite of a traditional middle, i.e., potential to lose both bets.

taught to me by my favorite client.

[omalley21]

Hopefully the years of abuse on chestnuts body will slow him down lol.

[brigade125]

605 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 65½

-150

he looks motivated not to lose to black widow..

[PunisherIND]

605 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 65½

-150

he looks motivated not to lose to black widow..

lol

[MD]

That's why it's a polish middle you noob.

EDIT: Derp, I'm being retarded, never mind.

[PunisherIND]

this may explain things

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/07/...uly-4-contest/

he said he's going for 70 this year

[NunyaBidness]

Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 67½* +150
Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 61½* +300

risky polish middle, but if we assume that chestnut doesnt need to reach 60 to win,
and further assume the only reason he would need to go that high is if he were trying
to break the record (68), this might be a logical play.

thoughts?

If we are to assume the date we have is meaningful (which its not), then we should expect it to fall between 61.5 and 67.5 dogs about a third of the time. So, not worth it on the numbers alone. Your analysis may be correct, however.

[NunyaBidness]

this may explain things

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/07/...uly-4-contest/

he said he's going for 70 this year

What's he going to say though? No competition this year, just gonna coast.

Will not be surprised to see the over come in or that he breaks the record, hopefully no one has construed my statements as to saying I think the under should be a large favorite, only that its mispriced.

[NunyaBidness]

I'd hold off currently, with the arbs disappearing, the downward pressure should disappear and I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit the +200 range before noon.

Nostrodamus over here:

Thu 7/4		609 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 63½		-260
12:00PM		610 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 63½		+200

[PunisherIND]

What's he going to say though? No competition this year, just gonna coast.

Will not be surprised to see the over come in or that he breaks the record, hopefully no one has construed my statements as to saying I think the under should be a large favorite, only that its mispriced.

he could have just said that he's going to blow away the field (which he actually did say). he didnt have to add that he's specifically going for 70.

idk. trying to explain the movement. could just be like you said, that people are only looking at last years number.

[MD]

Worth hitting, all things considered? Seems like he's pushing himself a lot to be honest.

[MD]

Worth hitting, all things considered? Seems like he's pushing himself a lot to be honest.

Should clarify this, one of many posts today in which I don't type what I'm thinking. I was questioning if it was really worth hitting (from the perspective that I don't think it is, but I already have some under bets down, so that's why). It seems like the nature of his profession shouldn't perpetuate a long career. The fact that he's having his doctor monitor him is a good sign, but it does surprise me that his doctor said that it won't have a negative affect on his health. That seems like a bit of a stretch to be honest.

I already have a couple of bets down, but even with his health considered and the lack of depth to the field, I'm going to avoid putting any more on the under-lines. The more I read about professional eating and the methods they go through, the less I think I understand the variance of it. It must be so easy to have an off day, even if you've got the food IQ equivalent of GSP.

[NunyaBidness]

Worth hitting, all things considered? Seems like he's pushing himself a lot to be honest.

Maybe he is, but like most 'athletes' he doesn't understand how much variance affects his performance more than his will to perform.

He has not been able to improve his number since 2009, his best case scenario is an average of 63, which would suggest he is able to break this record <18% of the time.

Again, none of this factors in that he may have done this in training 100 times, and we may have a skewed sample, but thats what happens when you work with a sample size of 6.

[MD]

Have you ever read Nate Silver's books, Nunya? I picked up the Signal and the Noise and I intend to read it soon. I'm not expecting too much from it, as I have no reason to believe that the guy can express his vast knowledge in a way in which I can actually absorb it, but he's obviously very good at what he does.

[PunisherIND]

fwiw - its nasty in nyc right now

.. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
* LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY.
* HAZARDS... HEAT.
* HEAT INDEX VALUES... IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.
* TIMING... THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
* IMPACTS... SENSITIVE POPULATIONS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR NEW YORK CITY WHEN HIGH HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS AT LEAST 95 DEGREES FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OR 100 DEGREES FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS... STAY IN AN AIR- CONDITIONED ROOM... STAY OUT OF THE SUN... AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

[NunyaBidness]

Have you ever read Nate Silver's books, Nunya? I picked up the Signal and the Noise and I intend to read it soon. I'm not expecting too much from it, as I have no reason to believe that the guy can express his vast knowledge in a way in which I can actually absorb it, but he's obviously very good at what he does.

I've skimmed it, but not read it. I've conversed with Nate a few times however, when he was just a dumb ole poker player in Chicago.

I highly recommend Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Talib, think you particularly would enjoy it.

[NunyaBidness]

fwiw - its nasty in nyc right now

.. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
* LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY.
* HAZARDS... HEAT.
* HEAT INDEX VALUES... IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.
* TIMING... THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
* IMPACTS... SENSITIVE POPULATIONS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR NEW YORK CITY WHEN HIGH HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS AT LEAST 95 DEGREES FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OR 100 DEGREES FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS... STAY IN AN AIR- CONDITIONED ROOM... STAY OUT OF THE SUN... AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

That's gotta be a good sign for the under one would think.

[PunisherIND]

That's gotta be a good sign for the under one would think.

absolutely. not sure how big of a factor it will be, but definitely helps the under. i just hope he doesnt yak.

[PunisherIND]

I've skimmed it, but not read it. I've conversed with Nate a few times however, when he was just a dumb ole poker player in Chicago.

I highly recommend Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Talib, think you particularly would enjoy it.

thanks for the rec. this book is available in pdf for free. i'll check it out.

[MD]

I've skimmed it, but not read it. I've conversed with Nate a few times however, when he was just a dumb ole poker player in Chicago.

I highly recommend Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Talib, think you particularly would enjoy it.

I was actually going to order his other book, Black Swan, while I was browsing a section on Amazon and came across it, but then I decided not to because it had some God-awful reviews and pretty much everyone thought it was mediocre. I generally think of Amazon reviewers as not the brightest of people, so I was going to give it some more time and read up on the book a bit, but then I never got around to it.

I'll order that, thanks. Any opinion on Silver as a statistician?

[NunyaBidness]

I'll order that, thanks. Any opinion on Silver as a statistician?

I quoted him over and over when we were betting the election, plus he was beating baseball at one time, which is better than I could ever do.

[Beelzebubzy]

Predictably irrational

[NunyaBidness]

Chestnut looking a little thicker in the middle than I recall in previous years. Anyone have weigh-in comparison photos?