[nikossf]

If so, lets compare notes.. If not,. please explain a little more reasoning behind each..


I seriously have came across hundreds of these little rules.. For each particular sport.
Hopefully I can post a few every couple days and get some nice feedback regarding some of these.. Kinda curious what others have to say about these..


Lets start with a couple here and see where this goes.. Thanks!

A couple basics..





Baseball Betting’s Top 10 Countdown

by FOM Sports on August 21, 2009

By Mike Lee

(This article was written during the 2004 Baseball season)





10.CHART EACH TEAM’S ACE RELIEVER

This factor did not rank higher due to the fact that I think you can be a winning bettor without it. By charting the days when the ace is used, you can INCREASE your winning percentage in the long run. If he was used the day before, the team gets a minus. If he rested, give the team a plus. It is a rare situation in which you’ll see the star reliever used 2 days in succession.

9. LOOK OUT FOR REVENGE SERIES

Not as important as revenge games in football and basketball but at times, GOOD TEAMS can gain revenge in baseball when getting swept or losijng 3 of 4, 2 of 3 etc. Be especially alert to a top notch pitcher who lost a tight, well pitched game and then comes back to face the same pitcher that beat him.

8.PLAY MORE FAVORITES THAN DOGS

This one could be very controversial! Sure, there are some of you who are primarily dog betors and some who play just favorites but I’ve learned one thing over the years. If you play approximately 40% dogs (even to +1.40 on the average) and 60% favorites (-2.00 on occasions but on the average, -1.25 to -1.40), you’ll have more winning seasons in the long run. There are some seasons that are favorite biased to a certain extent. An all underdog player can really get hurt during those times.

7. FOLLOW STARTING PITCHER CURRENT FORM

Chart each starting pitcher’s last 2 or 3 efforts. Look for pitchers rounding into or going out of form. A pitcher is like a thoroughbred. His form comes and goes in cycles. One of your best situations here is to catch a good hurler coming off a well pitched game after one or two bad outings.

6. FOLLOW TEAM STREAKS

A slightly overused handicapping factor but still one that can point you in the right directions based on current form. In April and early May, you can cash a lot of winners based on UNDERDOGS that are on winning streaks

5. CHART STARTING PITCHER ERA BASED ON HOME-AWAY

Notice that is is not overall ERA but rather HOME-AWAY ERA. Some pitchers are like night and day, home and away.

4. CHART RUNS PER GAME, HOME-AWAY AND VERSUS LEFTY-RIGHTY

Each team has a certain offensive personality based on the runs it gets not only at home and on the road, against righties and lefties. Know your stats!

3. HAVE A BANKROLL

Money management can’t be emphasized enough and might be ranked #1 by many of you. Bet more when winning and less when losing.

2. BET MOSTLY WINNING TEAMS

This factor could be ranked #1. All you have to do is look at your daily newspaper to track the teams that play 50% ball or better. By playing these teams (when other factors warrant a selection), you will have far more winning streaks and far less losing streaks! Note: It is tough to have a feel for these 50% teams in early April.

1. MAKE YOUR OWN LINE

Why is this important? In order to make your own line, you need to know all of the above factors. By using stats such as runs per game (lefty-righty, home-away), you are looking at offense. Stats such as starting pitcher ERA home-away give you a good feel for team defense. Let’s not forget starting pitcher current form, ace reliever availability and team streaks. When you have all of these stat-factors at your disposal, you can make your own HANDICAPPING LINE. By comparing this to the Vegas Line,or wherever you happen to get your line, you’ll have a good feel of knowing when to play and when to pass.

[nikossf]

A little more in depth..

Just starting with baseball because of course it's good time of season for this...but I have a lot of others from other sports. Just like to get some good feedback from some of these..






How to bet baseball: Capper's tips for winning the MLB marathon

Baseball may be known as America’s favorite pastime, but when it comes to betting, it generally takes a backseat to football and basketball.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made on the diamond. The summer can be a profitable time of year, as long as you’re willing to put in a little time and effort.

Playing the odds

Moneyline betting requires a much different approach to that of pointspread betting. Discipline is the key and not making a habit of investing in big favorites is paramount.

You can win 60 percent of the time and still see your bankroll shrink if you’re not careful. That’s not to say that you must strictly bet underdogs and totals, but you have to pick your sports wisely when laying chalk.

As a rule, many bettors will avoid backing favorites priced higher than -160.

Perhaps the most important notion to drill into your head is that even the best teams lose close to 40 percent of the time. The Pittsburgh Pirates finished with the worst record in baseball in 2010, but still won 57 games, or 35 percent of the time. That’s why laying big prices on a regular basis is a sure ticket to the poorhouse.

Know your limits

Be smart about your wager amounts. It may be clichéd, but the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t lose your shirt in April when many of the best opportunities to cash in on the diamond come in the dog days of summer.

Unlike other professional sports, which top out at 82 games, teams are on the field almost every day over the course of a 162-game season. There are going to be spots where they don’t bring the proper level of focus.

Arms race

Scouting pitching matchups has to become as much a part of your daily routine as brushing your teeth. There’s a reason why starting pitchers are listed right next to the game lines at every sportsbook. You won’t find an individual player with as much control over the odds in any sport.

With that in mind, starting pitchers are only part of the equation. Solely basing your wager on who’s taking the ball on that particular day can lead to frustration.

With today’s pitch counts, starters will often work six innings or less, leaving at least a third of the game in the hands of the bullpens. You can’t count on a starter to toss a complete game every time he takes the hill, so you’re more than likely going to be relying on a team’s relief corps when the game is on the line. Pay attention to those bullpens and how teams fare in one-run ball games.

Who’s in? Who’s Out?

It’s important to keep your eye on lineup cards, particularly when teams are playing a day game following a night game. Star players are given the day off from time to time and you should be cognizant of that. Lineup cards are usually available about a half hour prior to the first pitch at most major sports websites.

Don’t doubt defense

Defense might just be the most overlooked area of the game when it comes to baseball handicapping. Teams that avoid those costly mistakes in the field win more often – it doesn’t get much simpler than that.

The three worst teams in the league in terms of fielding percentage in 2010 were Pittsburgh, Chicago (Cubs) and Washington. All three of those teams finished the season in the red in terms of units gained/lost. If you backed all three for the entire campaign, you would have finished down 47 units.

Of the league’s 12 worst defensive teams (according to the fielding percentage rankings), only the Atlanta Braves would have put money in your pocket. By contrast, five of the top six teams turned a profit over the course of the 2010 season.

Hot and cold

Make sure you pay attention to streaks. It’s not uncommon to see teams go on extended winning or losing runs lasting 10 games or more. The betting marketplace is often a little slow to the take when it comes to these hot or cold teams. As a general rule, it’s rarely a good idea to step in front of streaks on the diamond.

[kilmerAsHolliday]

Gambling is hard, rules limit you. Use your brain, its many times more powerful than computers.

[nikossf]

Yea,..Very true..Gambling is hard.. but so is freakin' brain science.. and Space exploration.. but you have to follow SOME rules in order to succeed right..??!!


Kinda like what you were sayin' though.. gambling is hard..and if your smart about it,. you don't really need a bunch of bs rules.. I do agree,... to an extent..
but what do you think? without the rules its harder to stay focused...but using these rules and adapting to build an enhanced set of rules could be beneficial!


Just like everything in life..you follow some set of guidelines but have to veer off a little to build what works best. Kinda my reasoning to hear what others have to say about these..

[nikossf]

Here is some Baseball strategy.. I know this is a lot to read,. but definitely a good read.
Really interested in hearing some thoughts on this stuff..





Baseball Betting Strategy


Having a solid baseball betting strategy is a must if you're going to be successful at wagering on baseball. So many people just dive right in with no plan or strategy in place...don't be one of them.

What we'll go over in this chapter are some baseball betting strategies that will be very important to your overall handicapping philosophy. Now we've already covered some general advice and tips, but we'll start getting into some more detailed information here, while going even more in depth throughout the rest of the guide.

Now each baseball betting strategy we list here aren't absolutes, but I would highly encourage you to practice each one because I can promise you that every professional handicapper does.

Some will be easier to grasp, while others you will continue to fine tune over the years (power rankings). What we're trying to do is introduce you to some of the concepts that will make you a sharp handicapper.

As we've said throughout our baseball betting guide, we're not going to give you some kind of top secret formula or even walk you through step by step everything you need to do. It's up to you to follow through and put in the work.

We'll give you the groundwork to get you started, but it's up to you to individualize it to how you feel is most appropriate for your baseball handicapping...remember, this is a "do it yourself" guide. In other words, we're not going to do everything for you.

You'll learn so much more doing it yourself rather than us laying it out there for you. Alright, enough of me preaching again, I'm sure you get the point. Let's get to our first baseball betting strategy.

Power Rankings

By far the most vital baseball betting strategy (at least in my opinion) centers around the importance of accurate power rankings (much easier said than done). Whether you develop your own or you follow someone elses, I believe they're crucial to your handicapping.

They should really be used as the basis for your baseball handicapping philosophy (any sports handicapping for that matter). Baseball has become an extremely analytical sport especially with the introduction of sabermetrics.

I won't go into the details of sabermetrics, but they can play a major role in creating your own power rankings or in following someone elses that implements sabermetrics into their power rankings.

Again, I'm not going to go into the details of sabermetrics, but click here to visit the Wikipeida page. Other great sites for sabermetrics information and power rankings include Beyond The Boxscore, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus. Obviously, there are others, but these will certainly get you going in the right direction.

Getting back to power rankings though, we'll teach a pretty basic strategy to create your own within our Handicapping a Baseball Game chapter. This will give you a great base to start from and then of course you'll want to add your own tweaks over time as you see necessary.

Power rankings are extremely important and I can assure you that every professional handicapper has their own formula's for calculating them. What you're essentially looking for are discrepancies between your own rankings and the lines that are set by the sportsbooks.

When you can accurately find these discrepancies, then you may have just found a possible bet on that side or total, but of course you'll want to dig deeper into it. If you can create good power rankings, then you will be a very successful baseball handicapper.

It isn't easy, but I can assure it can be done. As I've said before, I've met many handicappers that consistently win at baseball year after year and the primary reason typically stems from accurate power rankings.

Well get deeper into this later on in the guide, but I'd like to bring up this formula right now for reference since it's very important in the whole scheme of things pertaining to power rankings and win probabilities. We're talking about predicted win percentage based on the betting line.

To determine win percentage based on the lines listed by sportsbooks, take the amount your risking and divide it by the amount risked plus amount to win...clear as mud, huh?

Here's an example of a -150 favorite. If you are risking $150 to win $100, then you would first add $150 (amount risked) to $100 (amount to win). You would then take $150 (amount risked) and divide by the total of amount risked plus amount to win: 150/ (150 + 100) = 60%.

In other words, a team with a -150 line is predicted to win 60% of the time. A team with a +150 line (100 / (100 + 150)) is predicted to win 40% of the time. These are extremely critical numbers to know because you'll then compare those to your own projections (power rankings). If there are discrepancies then you may have good bet.

Estimated win probability is very important and if you can create a system/formula that is accurate, then you're going to be one very successful baseball handicapper (check out Accuscore if you're more of the hands off type because they offer some good probability software). However, for more of the hands on, we'll go over the basics to creating your own within our Handicapping a Baseball Game chapter.

We can't tell any type of top secret formula for them though, simply because everybody does it a little differently. However, if there's one baseball betting strategy that you take away from this chapter, it should be the crucial role that power rankings play in becoming a winning baseball bettor (this actually goes for any sport).

Bet Underdogs

I think I've probably beat this baseball betting strategy into the ground enough, but I'll mention it here again just because it's so important: bet underdogs. Simple as that. Underdogs, on average, win about 45% of the time...this is very important to know.

I truly believe betting underdogs is the key to winning at baseball in the long run and trust me, I'm not alone. As I've already stated quite a few times throughout our Baseball Betting Guide, I would never bet a favorite of -150 or more.

And if you look at our free baseball betting picks on our sports betting blog, you'll see it's very rare for us to ever lay more than -110. It's very simple, the more dogs you bet, the less games you have to win to turn a profit.

As I've said before, basically every team will win 60 games and lose 60 games, no matter how good or bad they are. That's telling you right there that underdogs will win at least 60 games.

If I only have to pick 45-50% of those games correctly to make a profit then that offers great value (that would basically be lines between +122 and +100. Trust me, it's much easier than having to pick 55-60% correct in order to turn a profit (that would basically be laying between -122 and -150).

Don't ever forget this baseball betting strategy because it is extremely important to the success of your baseball handicapping. Underdogs are where the value/money is at and should serve as one of your primary strategies for years to come.

Division Underdogs

Staying along the same lines as the above baseball betting strategy, we'll go into a little more depth in betting underdogs.

Most professionals (and any good handicapper for that matter) should know the significance of betting division underdogs. Obviously, division opponents play a lot of games together, which makes them very familiar with each other. Divisions produces rivalries and that means great competition and an all out effort.

Of course you shouldn't just bet division underdogs blindly, but you should pay very special attention to them since tremendous value and opportunity can be found in these matchups.

Here are a few scenarios that make division dogs even stronger: if they are coming off a blowout loss (oddsmakers may adjust the line to much, thus creating great value), if they were swept by their division opponent in the previous serious (revenge), if it's later in the year (more squares are betting the favorite, thus giving the dog better value).

Each of the above scenarios should certainly be accounted for in your overall baseball betting strategy. And trust me, over the years you'll began to develop your own that you can implement into your power rankings/win probabilities.

Find Your Niche Team(s)

This is a baseball betting strategy that you really don't hear mentioned much in books or websites. I'm a huge proponent of it in college basketball and football, but also feel that it has a place in betting baseball as well.

Basically it's this: pick 1-2 small market teams and follow them religiously throughout the year (if you live in a small market town, then even better). For me personally, I live in Kansas City, so it makes it easy to know everything about them.

But even if you don't, you can still find everything you need to know on the internet. Watch or listen to the games as much as you can, listen to local radio, read local newspapers, watch boxscores, follow transactions, follow the farm club...etc (you get the point).

Become an absolute expert of that team. Not only will you learn a ton (which is nice), but you'll become a great handicapper at betting for or against that team. I'm telling you, this baseball betting strategy works because I used it for many years.

Most people don't have the time to be an expert at every team in baseball, but most people can find the time to become an expert on 1-2 teams. That still gives you at least 324 betting possibilities throughout the year...and that should be plenty of opportunities to make a nice profit.


You've made it to the next section of our Baseball Betting Strategy chapter...nice work. We'll cover a few more strategies and pieces of advice that we feel are very important to your overall baseball handicapping philosophy.

Remember, we're sharing this information to help you increase your ROI...not become rich over night. Creating a baseball betting strategy (or strategies) can take time.

There can be a lot of trial and error involved. Before ever placing real money on the line, it's good to either back test your hypothesis as far back as you can (the further back you can go, the better...of course other factors may need to be accounted for as well).

What's important is that you actually run the numbers before jumping in and betting games. A successful handicapper will formulate and then test a baseball betting strategy before ever placing a dime on it.

Now these strategies we share with you in this chapter are designed to make you think and then create your own from there (or take ours a step further). Remember, we're not going to do everything for you, simply because you'll learn so much more along the way doing it yourself.

Enough of me on my soapbox already, let's get back to the good stuff.

Know the Run Line

As you probably know by now, the run line is a 1.5 run spread. You can either bet on a favorite at -1.5 runs or the underdog at +1.5 runs. It's basically a one and a half run point spread.

For run line wagers to be official, the game must go eight and a half innings if the home team is ahead, and must go nine innings if the visitor is ahead (no different than betting on a total, which we'll discuss later in the guide).

There's a number of ways to look at the run line and we'll examine a few of the different strategies here. You may like one over the other, but we simply want to give you different ideas in how to get the best value for betting the run line.

Remember that betting the run line on the away team is going to cost you more because they will bat all 9 innings regardless (while the home team may only bat 8). Because of this, road favorites are only about 50 cents cheaper, while home favorites will be about 90 cents cheaper (again, on average). The extra at bat in the 9th inning by the visiting team can make a big difference...to bad the oddsmakers already take this into account, but it's still important to know.

Historically, baseball games are decided by 1 run about 27-28% of the time (roughly). Home teams win by 1 run about 31% of the time, while away teams only win by one run about 23% of the time (this is regardless of whether the home or away team is the favorite).

It's also very important to look at the total (over/under) set for the game when betting the run line. A higher total typically means a better chance of more runs, which means a better chance of it not being a one run game.

In other words, it's better to take run line favorites when there is a higher total and run line dogs when there is a lower total (obviously, this is not a "set in stone" rule, but something important to remember). However, there's also a very good possibility that the oddsmaker has already accounted for this within the run line odds as well (damn oddsmakers).

I am not a huge fan of betting run line underdogs because I'd much rather have the payout of a money line winner. Plus, the increase in the amount of juice you have to pay to insure against a one run loss is hardly worth it (in my opinion).

Ask yourself if it's really worth to pay an extra 75 cents to insure against a one run loss on an underdog that only happens about 17% of the time (in other words, the favorite only wins by one run about 17% of the time, thus making a run line underdog a pretty expensive baseball betting strategy).

If you're going to bet the run line, then I recommend taking the favorite, but only when it's in your favor to do so. Something that is very interesting to consider is that it doesn't matter if it's a -110 favorite or a -200 favorite, they all win by one a run about the same amount of time.

While most people never consider betting a run line unless it's a favorite of -160 or higher, I look at it the exact opposite because the better value is the other way around.

I can get a much better payout on the run line (plus money) and still have the same chance of winning with a -110 favorite compared to a -200 favorite...in other words, a -110 favorite wins by two or more runs just as much (if not more) than a -200 favorite, plus they have a much better payout (now that is value we like).

Andrew Iskoe over at The Logical Approach did an interesting study that solidified this baseball betting strategy even more. From his analysis, he came to the conclusion that your best value when taking run line favorites is to only take them at +160 or better (the same study also found that you should only take underdogs straight up at +122 or better).

Obviously, you need to incorporate other factors into applying this baseball betting strategy and not just blindly bet +160 or better run line favorites (or +122 or better underdogs). Although a simple study, I truly feel it should open your eyes to run line favorites and the possible +EV that can be found in betting them.

Making a -1 Run Line

Another important baseball betting strategy you can implement is making a run line favorite a -1 run favorite (since it's pretty frustrating to lose your bet if they only win by one run when taking the run line). You can do this by splitting your original wager in half. Half will be bet on the money line, while the other half will be bet on the run line.

Here's an example: Let's say your normal bet size is $100. The money line on Tampa Bay is -150 and the run line is +130. As opposed to risking $100 to win $130 on the run line, you can split your wager in half and bet the money line of $75/$50 and the run line of $50/$65.

If Tampa wins by 1 run, then you will have broken even as opposed to losing $100 when taking only the run line. This type of strategy is a great way to hedge down your run line bet just in case of a 1 run victory (where you'd normally lose $100).

Hitters and Pitchers Bouncing
Back or Falling Back

You probably get the point by now that we make a lot of bets based on mean reversion and that's exactly what this baseball betting strategy is as well (this applies to all sports betting).

Oddsmakers love to inflate or deflate lines after a team/pitchers poor or great performance because they know the public will still bet it...especially on publicly televised games (again, this goes for all sports, not just baseball).

Great value can be found in betting on a team that scored zero runs in there last game (check out the numbers and you'll see it's shown a consistent profit over the years). The same can be said on betting a pitcher that is going through a rough patch (we'll talk more about this in our next baseball betting strategy).

Now this isn't 100% accurate and you definitely have to pick your spots. Since most bettors will only look at recent performance, they can drive the line up, so that it offers a great value to go the other way.

To sum it up though, pay close attention to "good" teams/pitchers that have been slumping because over 162 games, things tend to even themselves out (reversion to the mean...I think I've said that enough).

The exact opposite is true is well. Overall average teams and pitchers can only stay so hot before coming back to their original form. Keep a very close eye on these situations and if you play them correctly over the course of the season, you'll see a nice increase in your ROI.

Pitcher Form Reversal

Now this is a baseball betting strategy that's been around for years, so you may have heard it before, but I still feel it holds some great value. It's all about reversion to the mean (just as you should keep an eye on in all sports betting).

What we're looking for is a pitcher to revert back to his original form after a hot or cold streak. Streaks can happen at anytime throughout the year, but what we're betting on is that the pitcher will revert back. Good pitchers go through rough outings, and bad pitchers will go through good outings.

Jim Barnes is where I first heard of this strategy (a great sports betting author). Basically the way to figure form reversal is to take the pitchers season ERA and double it. Then subtract the pitcher's ERA from the last 3 starts to give you an estimate of true expected performance.

Example of bad pitcher: He has a season ERA of 5.02. Multiply this by 2 and get 10.04. Over the last 3 starts, he's averaged an ERA of 2.99. Then take 10.04 minus 2.99 to get 7.03. 7.03 is a much truer number than the 2.99 in the last 3 starts. Now is the time to be betting against this pitcher because the public will be betting for him, thus driving the line up (great value can be found in form reversion)

Of course the opposite is true as well for a good pitcher. Take his season ERA of 3.10 and multiply by 2 to get 6.20. Take his average ERA over the last 3 starts of 5.02 and subtract from 6.20 to get an ERA of 1.18. Now is the time to be betting on this pitcher, because again, there's a very good chance of finding value in this line.

Obviously, this baseball betting strategy isn't without faults (trust me, none are). Certainly tweaks will need to be made and other data factored in, but it's always nice to have another weapon in you baseball betting arsenal.

Baseball Betting Strategy - Wrap Up

Hopefully you were able to pick up a new baseball betting strategy that you haven't heard of before and can implement into your overall baseball handicapping philosophy. Obviously these are only a few to give you a good base because you'll certainly add many more over the years.

As I've said before, none of these strategies are going make you rich overnight, but they absolutely can add to your ROI over the long term. The information in this chapter along with the tips and advice we've already mentioned in the Baseball Betting Guide should without a doubt help you become a better handicapper.

It's up to you to implement this advice and strictly follow it on a daily basis (discipline is an absolute key to becoming successful). Disciplined bettors make for successful handicappers.

Now that you have some ideas for developing a good baseball betting strategy, let's move on to one of the most profitable strategies that we devoted an entire chapter too: Betting Baseball Totals. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

[Aeiou1x2]

Man, I enjoyed reading this. Definitely a Good Note.

[brettd]

A 'rule based' (angle) approach is essentially a heuristic approach to handicapping. You need to create a database of whenever these rule based instances occur, and how successful they were in the past. You then need to infer how effective they will be going forward in future.

Database heuristics complements model based handicapping in order to create a holistic approach to handicapping.

[Justin7]

Rule = system, and does not belong in HTT.

[DOMINATER]

no its my way of having fun no rule works all the time I just follow the season and bet with my feelings and the experience of betting for 50 years, some trends I keep an eye out but I never feel things are written in stone. I won over 300,00 dollars in the last 5 years good enough for me. Baseball is ny big winner, but I hate to post ,when I do I tend to get to conservative. I really can't handle when I lose money and others are following.

[GunShard]

Make sure you know the different between MLB money lines to NBA NFL against the spread.
Two different ways of gambling.

Here are my gambling rules:
1. Bet on sports that you are good at, don't bet on sports you are bad at.
2. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field advantage tend to win games, especially in football.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action or just because it's your favorite team.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays "against the spread" should be no longer than 2 teams. Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
If you are extremely impulsive and egotistical. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".

[Avenger]

Make sure you know the different between MLB money lines to NBA NFL against the spread.
Two different ways of gambling.

Here are my gambling rules:
1. Bet on sports that you are good at, don't bet on sports you are bad at.
2. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field advantage tend to win games, especially in football.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action or just because it's your favorite team.

Been gambling for a few years now, and I think this is the only strategy that works. You gotta wait for certain "situations".

what are those situations? That takes years of experience, and if I wrote them down, you'd think I was crazy.

Looking at stats and games are important, but the average joe will never be as good as the oddsmakers. They'll always have those edges built into the line. But if you do this long enough, you know certain "situations" will pay off.

I'll give an example: the NBA Finals, most likely, will NOT have two small-market teams.

-Fridays are good days for OVERs in MLB.

-Fridays are bad days to bet on the Lakers.

-If a public favorite won a morning game, most likely a heavy public fave will lose at night.

I don't have hard stats for any of the above, you'll just have to trust they're true. And now that I posted them, they'll be null and void. Oh well.

[nikossf]

Rule = system, and does not belong in HTT.

Sorry Justin,..I do apologize SBR. Can we get this moved to the appropriate section? Thank you.


Nevermind,..just realized this was already done. Again, I do apologize.

[Inkwell77]

A 'rule based' (angle) approach is essentially a heuristic approach to handicapping. You need to create a database of whenever these rule based instances occur, and how successful they were in the past. You then need to infer how effective they will be going forward in future.

Database heuristics complements model based handicapping in order to create a holistic approach to handicapping.

sharp

[GunShard]

Been gambling for a few years now, and I think this is the only strategy that works. You gotta wait for certain "situations".

what are those situations? That takes years of experience, and if I wrote them down, you'd think I was crazy.

Looking at stats and games are important, but the average joe will never be as good as the oddsmakers. They'll always have those edges built into the line. But if you do this long enough, you know certain "situations" will pay off.

I'll give an example: the NBA Finals, most likely, will NOT have two small-market teams.

-Fridays are good days for OVERs in MLB.

-Fridays are bad days to bet on the Lakers.

-If a public favorite won a morning game, most likely a heavy public fave will lose at night.

I don't have hard stats for any of the above, you'll just have to trust they're true. And now that I posted them, they'll be null and void. Oh well.

Let me show you the "situation" that I found during the NBA playoffs that has been profitable.

Derrick Rose got injured for the rest of the playoffs in the Bulls vs 76ers Game 1.
Since Derrick Rose is their key player, bet the 76ers ATS.

Game 2: Philadelphia +6.5 WIN @ Chicago
Game 3: Chicago @ Philadelphia -1.5 WIN
Game 4: Chicago @ Philadelphia -2.5 WIN
Game 5: Philadelphia +5 @ Chicago LOSE

3 out of 4 is 75% win ratio.

[darkhat]

i don't even practice bank roll management.. I just do whatever I want and don't give a fuk.

[dj_destroyer]

Rule = system, and does not belong in HTT.

Nothing belongs in HTT except for your book eh...

[thetrinity]

take the under in game 3 of an nba series if game 1 and 2 goes over.

[tb1984]

-Fridays are bad days to bet on the Lakers.

Sunday nights are also bad to bet on the Lakers at home.

[Inkwell77]

i don't even practice bank roll management.. I just do whatever I want and don't give a fuk.

[dj_destroyer]

A lot of sharps disagree and start fluffing about expected growth and maximizing growth and all that funky jazz...

The only thing that matters for me is being +EV

Find an edge, play the edge. PROFIT.

[nikossf]

A lot of sharps disagree and start fluffing about expected growth and maximizing growth and all that funky jazz...

The only thing that matters for me is being +EV

Find an edge, play the edge. PROFIT.

VERY NICE!

[nikossf]

Betting Baseball Totals




Betting baseball totals is a niche that many successful handicappers have exploited for years. Now when I say "exploited", I don't mean they get rich overnight. What I'm saying is that there are handicappers that consistently turn a nice profit in betting baseball totals year in and year out.

Now for the bad part ... it's not easy. It takes time. It takes diligence. It takes hard work. But most importantly, it takes a strategy. You can't just randomly select games on a daily basis from gut feeling. It may work for a while, but the law of averages will catch up with you and it won't be much fun.

However, the good part is ... it can be done. Those handicappers that are successful, obviously, don't all use the same strategy. They all find +EV from various criteria, data, and information that they will implement within their betting baseball totals strategy.

What we're going to do here is give you some tips and advice that can help you create your own strategy. As we've said a million times throughout the Baseball Betting Guide, we're not going to do everything for you. It's up to you to put in the time and hardwork because you'll learn so much more that way.

As always, these tips we provide aren't the end all be all. They're simply a starting point or a contribution to the ones you're currently using within your strategy. I personally would use each one on a daily basis when betting baseball totals because I know just about every successful handicapper does...plus many others ones as well.

You may already know a few of these, especially if you've been at for years or, they may all be brand new. What we're trying to do is provide you with some tips and insight into a type of wagering that can be a profitable niche year in and year out. So let's get to it.

How Baseball Totals Work
(price, movement...etc)

Now we've already covered a lot of the basics within our Understanding Baseball Betting Lines chapter, so we'll try not to overlap. What we're going to focus on here is price and line movement (at least for the most part).

As we've said many times before, it's extremely crucial to shop for the best price, but more importantly to shop for the best line. If you can get 8.5 instead of 9, then that is absolutely huge if you're betting the over (depending on the price, of course). Yea, you'll have to pay a little more, but that half point can be crucial.

Again, this is why it's so important to have multiple outs (multiple sportsbook accounts). When betting a side in baseball, the sportsbook will adjust the price/odds up or down depending on how much money is coming in and who is betting it. However, when betting baseball totals, the sportsbooks will initially move the price, but after it's been moved a certain amount, they will adjust the total by .5 runs.

Let's take a look at an example: 10o-115. This is telling us that the total is set at 10. Taking the over will be -115 odds and taking the under will be -105 odds (most sportsbooks have a 20 cent line when it comes to totals).

The more money being bet on the over (increase in spread between money bet on the over compared to the under), the more the sportsbook will adjust the price. Typically, they'll adjust it to -120, then -125, possibly -130 (if they're really wanting to hold the number at 10), and then they'll actually move the total to 10.5 and bump the price to say 10.5u-120.

Now 10 really isn't a key number when it comes totals, so they'll probably adjust it after -125 (we'll talk more about key numbers below). Most of the time it's in your favor to take the best total if you can find it, even though you'll have to pay a higher price.

Even with the higher price from the better number, you'll change losses into pushes and pushes into wins. Although you may lose a little more juice in losing wagers over the year, it should be more than offset by the number of losses turned to pushes and pushes turned to wins.

To break it down even further, Betting Baseball 2009 has a nice table that shows you the value of half a run on various totals and the maximum price you should pay. Again though, for the most part, you should always take the half a run.

Another great book that dedicates a small section to betting baseball totals is Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao. He also does a great job breaking down the importance of a half run and what the real value is in cents (especially on key numbers, which we'll talk more about below). He offers some fantastic charts and examples that I highly recommend for the novice or even intermediate handicapper.

Something else I'll mention in this betting baseball totals section is steam that comes in on a total. It happens everyday and it can either screw you or help you. When steam comes rolling in, the number will immediately, typically, get adjusted by half a run. Now, this can either help you or hurt you.

I would personally make your plays on totals with either the overnight lines or early in the morning (of course as long as your numbers match up). It's better to have your price locked in than take the chance of your line getting steamed.

However, on the flip side, steam can be your friend. Once you've already got your plays in for the day at the numbers you want (value), then you can follow the line movement throughout the day because others may fall into place (from steam or public money coming in).

Trust me, it's not a bad thing to go against the steam moves...it doesn't really mean a whole lot. If you have solid numbers, then by all means trust them and bet them when a total is offering +EV according to your data. I think you get the point, so let's move on to our next baseball betting totals section.

Baseball Totals Have Reduced
Limits For A Reason

You've probably heard me say this before, but it's important to know that baseball totals have reduced limits for a very important reason...because as I've said, there are handicappers that can consistently produce better numbers than the oddsmakers.

Let's face it, setting totals is almost an after thought once the line for the side is set. With roughly 10-15 games every day, it's very difficult for the sportsbooks to set sharp lines on totals.

They're basically taking their best guess, and a lot of times, letting the sharp bettors adjust the number. Now obviously, they do a fair job at setting a good line, but there are certainly ones that can be exploited.

And that's exactly the reason limits are reduced for betting baseball totals. Now we can't tell you any kind of top secret formula to produce sharp totals, but if you take the time to run your own numbers, make adjustments for park, weather, pitchers...etc, I can assure you that you'll have the opportunity to be a very good totals bettor.

Be Aware of the Key Numbers
when Betting Baseball Totals

Key numbers? That's right. As surprising as it may sound to some, their are key numbers when it comes to betting baseball totals. These are very crucial to be aware of because if you can find totals off of these key numbers, then you may have found great value.

Roughly 25-30% of all games end with totals of 7, 9, or 11. The reason for this is because tie games of 3-3, 4-4, or 5-5, usually end with one team winning by one run either in 9 innings, or more likely in extra innings.

So the key numbers to remember are 7, 9, and 11. However, more games land on 7 and 9 than any other. Sportsbooks don't like moving off these key numbers at all.

Heavy action must be coming in on one side for sportsbooks to adjust the line (very similar to 3 and 7 in football). The important part is to be on the right side of these key numbers.

As I said previously, I would encourage you to bet your totals as early as possible. This is extremely important when the total is half a run away from landing on a key number.

If I'm wanting the over in a game that is currently listed (overnight line) at 8.5, then you better be damn well sure I'm betting that immediately (same with 6.5 and 10.5). It's not worth the risk for the possibility of the line moving up to 9 the next day.

The same can be said of the under as well. If I'm wanting the under and the overnight line is 7.5, then I'm definitely taking it (same with 9.5 or 11.5). Again, in my opinion, it's just not worth it to wait for a better line or price.

As I've said before when betting baseball totals, you want to get your bets in as early as possible (preferably overnight). Once these are placed, you can then watch for line/price movement the next day and analyze if value is coming into play (basically has any of the price/line movement created +EV with your numbers).


Well you've made it through the first section of our Betting Baseball Totals chapter, so now it's time to move on to part 2. Hopefully you were able to learn something new or at least gain a little more insight into totals wagering.

While are first part was primarly dedicated to some general advice and insight, we'll get more into some tips and strategy in part 2. Again though, we're merely providing the training wheels. It's up to you to actually put it into practice.

There can be a nice ROI and certainly +EV in betting baseball totals, but it's up to the handicapper to put in the hardwork. No real professional is going to do it all for you or give you their best ideas (as much as so many "scamdicappers" and various websites want you to believe.)

To become a truly successful handicapper, it comes down to trusting your own instincts, data, information, systems, strategies...etc. Nobody is going to sell you their best secrets for $99...so please don't believe it.

Put in the time, put in the research, and I can assure you that you'll be a better handicapper for it. Once again, I'm on my high horse. Without further ado, let's move on.

Pitching Plays a Key Role (obviously)

Wow, I'm really rewriting the books of betting baseball totals with this brilliant tip. Yes I know, it's extremely important, but it must be mentioned.

Pitching (relievers and starters) is going to play the biggest factor in how many runs are scored. Better pitching equals less runs, while bad pitching equals more runs. In other words, you better know your pitchers (relievers and starters) inside and out.

You need to know their current form, how they've pitched against this team in recent meetings, how they pitch in this ballpark, how many innings do you expect him to pitch...etc.

Of course you need to know where the bullpen is at as well. Have they been pitching a ton of innings the last week? Who is available? What is the mangers strategy for the bullpen? This list can go on and on, but you get the point.

I know it's obvious, but it's vital to have a very good understanding for both teams pitching staff when it comes to betting baseball totals.

Pitcher Mean Reversion in the
2nd Half of the Season

This is one of my favorite tips when it comes to betting baseball totals...and you probably already know, but I'm always looking for situations where mean reversion can play a factor (this typically means better value in my opinion).

Granted, there's a famous quote concerning equities that goes, "markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid" (John Maynard Keynes). Now I absolutely consider this to be the case with equities, however, I don't wholeheartedly believe it to be the case with sports betting (although streaks and trends could theoretically last forever).

This is why I'm always searching for outlying trends to revert back to there typical mean. Well, one of these trends is when a starting pitcher has an extremely lopsided O/U record at the All Star break or somewhere around the middle of the season (minimum 10 game O/U record and over an 80% record either towards the over or under)

For instance, if I find a pitcher that has a 10-2 O/U record, then you can be damn sure I'm going to be looking to bet the under in that pitchers up coming matchups...obviously other factors need to be considered as well.

But those types of outliers are what we're looking for in our research for betting baseball totals. While most people will be looking to bet the over (because that's what the trend is), I'll definitely be looking to fade that trend...especially if the other starter is in a similar situation.

These are the types of situations you should be looking for and accounting for in your handicapping. I personally could care less about trends (for the most part), and let's face it, trends are meant to be broken.

While this is only one situation, there can be many others out there but you must also have research and data to backup your opinion, especially if you're going to bet on it.

Know the Weather

Another one of those mind blowing tips for betting baseball totals. Not really, but still extremely important to know and only God knows how many sports bettors totally forget to check the weather.

I won't pound this into the ground because we've already discussed it at great detail in our Baseball Handicapping chapter, but realize what a major factor weather can play in how many runs are scored in game.

What direction is the wind blowing? What's the game time temperature? Are there storms coming in? These questions are vital to ask yourself before ever getting down on a total. It'll take about 2 minutes to check the weather...just do it.

Baseball Park Factors

Park factors are absolutely crucial to know when betting baseball totals. They're simple to calculate and are easy to update within a spreadsheet.

All baseball parks (stadiums) are not created equal. That's were park factors come into play. Some parks are prone to more scoring, while others are much more pitcher friendly.

What you need to do as a smart handicapper is know which stadiums are which. While there are a few different ways to calculate park factors, the easiest is known at Base Park Index (to give full credit, I first learned of this in the Betting Baseball series of books, however it is a well known index).

Base Park Index will also help determine what a pitcher's true ERA is (although it's certainly not perfect). Other factors need to be considered (weather especially), as this is just one tool to help with betting baseball totals.

For the most accurate forecast of Base Park Index, it is best to have 3-5 years of data as fluctuations can occur from year to year because of outside circumstances (in other words, the more data, the better).

As we describe how to figure Base Park Index, you can definitely find this type of information at many other baseball specific websites as well (listed in previous chapters, but here is ESPN's park index info ). However, if you're the more do it yourself type, then this will definitely get you started.

You'll certainly want to make tweaks to how you calculate this over time, while we are merely giving you a good starting point.

So, here's how to calculate Base Park Index:

(1). Add Total Runs Scored In Home Park
(2). Add Total At-Bats In Home Park
(3). Divide Total Runs Scored (1) by Total At-Bats (2)
(4). Add Total Runs Scored In Away Games
(5). Add Total At-Bats In Away Games
(6). Divide Total Runs Scored Away (4) by Total At-Bats Away
(7). Finally, divide (3) by (6)

Most of the time you'll end up with a number between 90-110%. The average park will be at 100%. Lower scoring parks will be under 100%, while higher scoring parks will be over 100%.

If a park is rated 108%, then there are 8% more runs scored on average in that ball park (and vice versa). Now that we have the index down, we can adjust a pitchers ERA accordingly.

Let's say that a pitchers ERA for the season is 3.97, however he pitches in a home park with an index of 86%. Well this obviously means that a lot of his games are being pitched in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Here is how to calculate a better picture of what his true ERA may really be in the average ballpark:

(1). Take Park Index minus 1 (.86 - 1 = -.14)
(2). Divide (1) by 2 (-.14 / 2 = -.07)
(3). Multiply (2) by 3.97 (-.07 x 3.97 = -.278)
(4). Take 3.97 minus (3) (3.97 - (-.278) = 4.25)

This tells us that taking into account the pitchers Base Park Index, that this pitchers true ERA is around 4.25 in an average ballpark. Again, this certainly isn't perfect, but it will definitely serve as a good starting point in calculating various factors when it comes to finding value in betting baseball totals.

Keep an Eye on Individual
Team Totals

Individual team totals is another area of betting baseball totals that has shown nice value since becoming available. Again, limits will be lower, but their are many sharp handicappers that have found +EV in betting team totals.

If you are not familiar, a team total is simply betting on the over or under for the total amount of runs an individual team will score...pretty self explanatory. With team totals, you primarily only have to focus on one pitching staff and not two.

As with all baseball totals, a little more value is typically found with the under, and the same can be said with team totals. Obviously, this is because the public loves seeing runs scored and the sportsbooks are more than happy to get a few extra cents of value out of the squares.

Betting on individual team totals is a great starting point and will take a little less time than handicapping the actual total for the game. What you have to determine as a handicapper, is where you can find your niche in the totals game.

Know the Umpires

Umpires can play a factor when it comes to betting baseball totals. It's important to know who is behind the plate and what their tendencies are. Let's face it, some umpires have bigger (or smaller) strike zones than others.

Now, we've already hit on this quite a bit in our Baseball Betting Tips chapter, but I wanted to bring it up again because of the role umpires can play in how many runs are scored. Remember, there's a big difference between a 3-1 count and a 2-2 count, and the umpire is the one who makes the subjective strike/ball call.

As with everything in betting baseball totals, the small stuff matters. Don't forget to check who is behind the plate because it can certainly play a role in the outcome of how many runs are scored.

Betting Baseball Totals - Wrap Up

Wow, we finally made it to the end. As I always say, there certainly can be many more tips we can add here, but these are just a few that I feel are "must haves."

You can certainly show a positive ROI at the end of the season when betting baseball, but it's not easy, and you'll definitely need to develop your own strategy. I would encourage anyone wanting to become a serious handicapper to learn everything they can about baseball totals.

It's a part of the sports betting market that the sportsbooks don't like at all (because they typically lose money with it year in and year out). However, they have to offer them in order to stay competitive.

As I always say, find your niche and become an expert at it...and believe me, betting baseball totals is a niche that can be exploited.

Let's move on, shall we. In our next chapter, we'll cover some interesting Baseball Betting Trends and how they can or can't be used in your handicapping. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

[9dollarperhead]

[GunShard]

i don't even practice bank roll management.. I just do whatever I want and don't give a fuk.

You have the rights to don't give a fuk about your money.

[nikossf]

TOP TEN WAYS TO LOSE AGAINST SPORTS

Finally! Here's help for sports bettors with a real desire to go broke!

///

Are you feeling guilty about taking the sportsbook's money? Are you uncomfortable carrying all that easily-gotten disposable cash? Are you tired of not having to borrow gas money from friends and family? Is being financially secure just too complicated to deal with?...Here's help.


Listed below are the top ten pre-tested, guaranteed, sure-fire ways to break that nasty winning streak. Simply follow one or more of these ten guidelines and everyone will be feeling sorry for you in no time at all. You'll not only be getting all that 'tsk-tsk' sympathy you've been missing, you'll also have that special feeling of cleanliness pouring over you like hot syrup.

You know that 'clean' feeling we're talking about; - it's the one that comes only from going broke. It's a special feeling reserved for those sports bettors with a psychological need to lose. Psychologists will tell you it's no coincidence that losers say such things as, "I'm cleaned out," or "They wiped me out" or "I took a bath."

No, these ten ways aren't the only good ways to lose. There are plenty of others. But if you stick with only these ten, you're not likely to need a longer list.

1. Always bet more than you can afford to lose. This might be the best way of all to get rid of unwanted assets. Gamble with the rent money, or with the alimony payment, or the grocery money, or the car payment. Risking more than you can afford to lose, you figure to have that solvency monkey off your back in no time. It's hard to keep winning when all you can think about is whether or not you'll have a roof over your head next week. (This is NOT a strategy you'll want to tell your wife about.)

2. Keep changing the sizes of your bets. Regard the size of your next bet as a pry bar, either to get even after a losing streak or to 'push' a winning streak. Changing the size of your bets constitutes using a progressive betting system - whether or not such changes in your bet size have been carefully pre-planned - and progressive betting systems are wonderfully effective at unloading unwanted cash. Consider doubling up after a losing day in order to get even, or why not double up after a winning day to 'push' a winning streak? NOTE: According to expert researcher Dr. Nigel E. Turner, Ph.D., Scientist, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health ( ntsci@hotmail.com ), incremental betting is one of the telltale signs of someone with a gambling problem.

3. Always bet according to your hunches. Betting according to your gut feelings is a real nifty short-cut to Tap City. If you feel like you're 'due' a winning day, increase the size of your bets. Or if you get a hunch that a particular team is ready to get hot, load up on them and don't let anyone talk you out of it. After all, you remember that time you had a hunch and it came true, don't you?

4. Lay lots of futures bets and bet big on parlay cards. Anybody will win now and then if they bet propositions with reasonable vigorish. Those sissy bets don't have nearly enough odds against you. If you're trying to get rid of cash, always take the bets with big payoffs. Hey, - the Cleveland Browns figure to be 500-to-1 to win this year's Super Bowl. Why not take a flyer, lay a dime and make a quick half-million? And how about those big payoff bets on parlay cards? You can spare a hundred bucks on a 15-teamer, can't you?

5. Whenever you gamble, be tired, drink up, and flirt like crazy. Breaking this rule could be one of the reasons you've been winning in the first place. How can you expect to lose if you're alert and paying attention? Always stay up too late, drink plenty of booze, and try to get a date with the cocktail waitress or ticket writer; - that's just good common sense.

6. Pay for advice from touts who claim to win at least 70% of their picks against pointspreads. In Las Vegas, you could win a $200,000 house and 100's of thousands of dollars in cash if you can pick 70% winners straight up...That's without having to deal at all with pointspreads. How can it be that the names of 900 number gurus never come up in these contests? Could it be that they can't really pick 70% winners, even straight up? Could it be that they're lying about their ability to pick winners against pointspreads? Nawwww...They promised, didn't they? Go ahead and trust them. In fact, call several of these guys' 900 numbers every week. That way, you'll get a consensus of their "expert" opinions.

7. Never read books or articles by experts, never do research. Studying what experts have to say is strictly for pussies. Always try new systems and ideas while you're playing with real money. Never practice or double-check a system at home beforehand, and never read anything by acknowledged experts. Hey, you were born The World's Greatest Sports Bettor just like you were born The World's Greatest Lover, - right? You don't need advice from anybody; it's a macho thing.

8. Always impress people with the size of your bets. Members of the opposite sex are really attracted to people who lose vast amounts of money. Big losers look very sexy...And don't forget, the more you lose, the more comps you're likely to get from the sportbook manager. It's important to impress the sportbook manager with big losses. It's a great way to get a free buffet.

9. Consider winning or losing as a direct test of your self worth. Remember, only a wimp quits gambling during a losing streak. Real men and women keep betting until they either win big or go broke. You don't want to be a wimp, do you? Keep betting. Get mad if you have to.

10. Be superstitious. If superstition doesn't cure your solvency problem, your luckiness may be tougher to overcome than I thought. If you win by betting on the team with the best horoscope, or on the quarterback with the best bio-rhythms, or because a coach's name has six letters in it and 6 is your lucky number, or because you're wearing your lucky bolo tie - or whatever - your solvency problem might be extra tough. You might be forced to use more than one of these ten guidelines at once.

...But that's no problem. We all know lots of guys who use more than one of these ten guidelines at once. If you've been using one or more of them for any length of time, and you're still winning, you might have to give up and try to live with it. You might have to resign yourself to being the luckiest sonuvabitch on the planet.

- J. R. Miller